• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제25권6호
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• pp.267-274
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• 2021

Seismic fragility analysis of a structure is generally performed for the expected critical component of a structure. The seismic fragility analysis assumes that all the components behave independently in a structural system. A bridge system consists of many inter-connected components. Thus, for an accurate evaluation of the seismic fragility of a bridge, the seismic fragility analysis requires the composition of probabilities considering the correlation between structural components. This study presented a procedure to obtain the seismic fragility curve of a bridge system, considering the correlation between bridge components. Seismic fragility analysis was performed on a PSC bridge that is considered as the central infrastructure. The analysis results showed that the probability of the seismic fragility curve of the bridge system was higher than that of each bridge component.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제14권5호
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• pp.847-867
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• 2014

There are continuous efforts to mitigate structural losses from earthquakes and manage risk through seismic risk assessment; seismic fragility curves are widely accepted as an essential tool of such efforts. Seismic fragility curves can be classified into four groups based on how they are derived: empirical, judgmental, analytical, and hybrid. Analytical fragility curves are the most widely used and can be further categorized into two subgroups, depending on whether an analytical function or simulation method is used. Although both methods have shown decent performances for many seismic fragility problems, they often oversimplify the given problems in reliability or structural analyses owing to their built-in assumptions. In this paper, a new method is proposed for the development of seismic fragility curves. Integration with sophisticated software packages for reliability analysis (FERUM) and structural analysis (ZEUS-NL) allows the new method to obtain more accurate seismic fragility curves for less computational cost. Because the proposed method performs reliability analysis using the first-order reliability method, it provides component probabilities as well as useful byproducts and allows further fragility analysis at the system level. The new method was applied to a numerical example of a 2D frame structure, and the results were compared with those by Monte Carlo simulation. The method was found to generate seismic fragility curves more accurately and efficiently. Also, the effect of system reliability analysis on the development of seismic fragility curves was investigated using the given numerical example and its necessity was discussed.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제27권5호
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• pp.213-220
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• 2023

Seismic fragility curves play a crucial role in assessing potential seismic losses and predicting structural damage caused by earthquakes. This study compares non-sampling-based methods of seismic fragility curve derivation, particularly the probabilistic seismic demand model (PSDM) and finite element reliability analysis (FERA), both of which require employing sophisticated finite element analysis to evaluate and predict structural damage caused by earthquakes. In this study, a three-dimensional finite element model of API 5L X65, a buried gas pipeline widely used in Korea, is constructed to derive seismic fragility curves. Its seismic vulnerability is assessed using nonlinear time-history analysis. PSDM and a FERA are employed to derive seismic fragility curves for comparison purposes, and the results are verified through a comparison with those from the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). It is observed that the fragility curves obtained from PSDM are relatively conservative, which is attributed to the assumption introduced to consider the uncertainty factors. In addition, this study provides a comprehensive comparison of seismic fragility curve derivation methods based on sophisticated finite element analysis, which may contribute to developing more accurate and efficient seismic fragility analysis.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제15권6호
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• pp.605-616
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• 2018

In this paper, an extended Cloud analysis method is developed for seismic fragility assessment of existing highway bridges in the southeast Queensland region. This method extends the original Cloud analysis dataset by performing scaled Cloud analyses. The original and scaled Cloud datasets are then paired to generate seismic fragility curves. The seismic hazard in this region is critically reviewed, and the ground motion records are selected for the time-history analysis based on various record selection criteria. A parametric highway bridge model is developed in the OpenSees analysis software, and a sampling technique is employed to quantify the uncertainties of highway bridges ubiquitous in this region. Technical recommendations are also given for the seismic performance evaluation of highway bridges in such low-to-moderate seismic zones. Finally, a probabilistic fragility study is conducted by performing a total of 8000 time-history analyses and representative bridge fragility curves are generated. It is illustrated that the seismic fragility curves generated by the proposed extended Cloud analysis method are in close agreement with those which are obtained by the rigorous incremental dynamic analysis method. Also, it reveals that more than 50% of highway bridges existing in southeast Queensland will be damaged subject to a peak ground acceleration of 0.14 g.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.63-74
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• 2006

원전 구조물 및 주요기기의 지진 안전성 평가에서는 내진성능을 정량화하는 방법으로 취약도 분석이 사용되고 있다. 지진취약도 분석은 격납건물의 설계 시 반영된 보수성을 배제한 실질적인 내진성능을 평가하는 것으로 이러한 보수성을 성능 및 응답에 관련된 확률론적 변수로 고려하여 평가하게 된다. 본 연구에서는 비선형 지진 해석으로부터 얻은 구조물의 변위응답을 기초로 한 지진취약도 분석 방법을 제시하였다. 또한 원전부지에서 선정된 발생가능한 근거리지진, 원거리지진, 설계지진 및 확률론적 시나리오지진을 시나리오지진으로 선정하고 이들 지진동에 대한 비선형 지진해석을 통하여 한국 표준형 원전 격납건물의 지진취약도를 평가하였다.

• 한국지진공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지진공학회 2000년도 춘계 학술발표회 논문집 Proceedings of EESK Conference-Spring
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• pp.226-232
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• 2000

Seismic probabilistic risk assessment(RA) rather than deterministic assessment provides more valuable information and insight for resolving seismic safety issues in nuclear power plant design. In the course of seismic PRA seismic fragility analysis is the most significant and essential phase especially for structural or mechanical engineers. Lately the seismic fragility analysis is taken as a useful tool in general structural engineering as well. A systemized and synthesized procedure or technology related to seismic fragility analysis of critical industrial facilities reflecting the unique experiences and database in Korea is urgently required. This paper gives a state-of-the-art reviews of PRA and briefly summarizes the technologies related to PRA and seismic fragility analysis before developing an unique technology considering characteristics of Korean database. Some key items to be resolved theoretically or technically are extracted and presented for the future research.

• 한국지진공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지진공학회 2001년도 추계 학술발표회 논문집 Proceedings of EESK Conference-Fall 2001
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• pp.200-207
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• 2001

This paper introduces a methodology of seismic fragility analysis and discusses the basic input variables, focusing on the conservatism and variability of reference response spectrum. The procedures to consider the composite modal damping in the seismic fragility analysis is presented and its effects on the seismic capacity of structure is evaluated through an example analysis of the nuclear power plant structure which has typical composite modal damping characteristics. Two seismic fragility analyses were performed to obtain the seismic capacities which evaluated by considering the composite modal damping and the single damping characteristics. The results showed that the seismic fragility analysis without considering the different values of composite modal damping may considerably overestimate the seismic capacity of coupled structures.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제69권3호
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• pp.317-326
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• 2019

This research aims to assess the tight seismic risk curve of the intake tower at Geumgwang reservoir by considering the recorded historical earthquake data in the Korean Peninsula. The seismic fragility, a significant part of risk assessment, is updated by using Bayesian inference to consider the uncertainties and computational efficiency. The reservoir is one of the largest reservoirs in Korea for the supply of agricultural water. The intake tower controls the release of water from the reservoir. The seismic risk assessment of the intake tower plays an important role in the risk management of the reservoir. Site-specific seismic hazard is computed based on the four different seismic source maps of Korea. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) method is used to estimate the annual exceedance rate of hazard for corresponding Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA). Hazard deaggregation is shown at two customary hazard levels. Multiple dynamic analyses and a nonlinear static pushover analysis are performed for deriving fragility parameters. Thereafter, Bayesian inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to update the fragility parameters by integrating the results of the analyses. This study proves to reduce the uncertainties associated with fragility and risk curve, and to increase significant statistical and computational efficiency. The range of seismic risk curve of the intake tower is extracted for the reservoir site by considering four different source models and updated fragility function, which can be effectively used for the risk management and mitigation of reservoir.

• 국제강구조저널
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• 제18권5호
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• pp.1607-1616
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• 2018

Quantitatively modeling and propagating all sources of uncertainty stand at the core of seismic fragility assessment of structures. This paper investigates the effects of various sources of uncertainty on seismic responses and seismic fragility estimates of single-layer reticulated domes. Sensitivity analyses are performed to examine the sensitivity of typical seismic responses to uncertainties in structural modeling parameters, and the results suggest that the variability in structural damping, yielding strength, steel ultimate strain, dead load and snow load has significant effects on the seismic responses, and these five parameters should be taken as random variables in the seismic fragility assessment. Based on this, fragility estimates and fragility curves incorporating different levels of uncertainty are obtained on the basis of the results of incremental dynamic analyses on the corresponding set of 40 sample models generated by Latin Hypercube Sampling method. The comparisons of these fragility curves illustrate that, the inclusion of only ground motion uncertainty is inappropriate and inadequate, and the appropriate way is incorporating the variability in the five identified structural modeling parameters as well into the seismic fragility assessment of single-layer reticulated domes.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.1-12
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• 2011

지진취약도 분석은 원자력 발전소의 내진성능평가를 위하여 발전되어져 왔지만, 현재는 적용성이 건물과 교량 등에도 확대되어지고 있다. 일반적으로 지진취약도 곡선은 수많은 지진가속도 기록을 이용하여 비선형 시간이력해석으로 구한다. 비선형 시간이력해석에 의한 지진취약도 분석은 구조물의 모델링과 해석에 많은 시간이 소요되는 과정을 요구한다. 비선형 시간이력해석의 이와 같은 약점을 보완하기 위해서 변위계수법과 역량스펙트럼 방법과 같은 간단한 해석방법을 지진취약도 분석에 적용하였다. 변위계수법과 역량 스펙트럼 방법을 적용한 지진취약도 곡선의 정확성을 평가하기 위하여, 철근콘크리트 전단벽 구조물에 대한 변위계수법과 역량스펙트럼 방법을 적용한 지진취약도 곡선을 비선형 시간이력해석에 의해 구해진 지진취약도 곡선과 비교하였다. 지진취약도 곡선의 작성을 위해서는 설계스펙트럼에 대응되는 190개의 인공지진과 Shinozuka 등이 제안한 방법이 적용되었다.