• Title/Summary/Keyword: Seasonal trends

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Proposal of Agricultural Drought Re-evaluation Method using Long-term Groundwater Level Monitoring Data (장기 지하수위 관측자료를 활용한 농업가뭄 재평가 방안 제언)

  • Jeong, ChanDuck;Lee, ByungSun;Lee, GyuSang;Kim, JunKyum
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.27-43
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    • 2021
  • Since climate factors, such as precipitation, temperature, etc., show repeated patterns every year, it can be said that future changes can be predicted by analyzing past climate data. As with groundwater, seasonal variations predominate. Therefore, when a drought occurs, the groundwater level is also lowered. Thus, a change in the groundwater level can represent a drought. Like precipitation, groundwater level changes also have a high correlation with drought, so many researchers use Standard Groundwater Level Index (SGI) to which the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) method is applied to evaluate the severity of droughts and predict drought trends. However, due to the strong interferences caused by the recent increase in groundwater use, it is difficult to represent the droughts of regions or entire watersheds by only using groundwater level change data using the SPI or SGI methods, which analyze data from one representative observation station. Therefore, if the long-term groundwater level changes of all the provinces of a watershed are analyzed, the overall trend can be shown even if there is use interference. Thus, future groundwater level changes and droughts can be more accurately predicted. Therefore, in this study, it was confirmed that the groundwater level changes in the last 5 years compared with the monthly average groundwater level changes of the monitoring wells installed before 2015 appeared similar to the drought occurrence pattern. As a result of analyzing the correlation with the water storage yields of 3,423 agricultural reservoirs that do not immediately open their sluice gates in the cases of droughts or floods, it was confirmed that the correlation was higher than 56% in the natural state. Therefore, it was concluded that it is possible to re-evaluate agricultural droughts through long-term groundwater level change analyses.

Analysis of Water Use Strategies of Two Co-occurring Mature Tree Species, Pinus densiflora and Quercus serrata (생육공간을 공유하는 소나무와 졸참나무의 수분 이용 전략 비교 분석)

  • Lee, Kiwoong;Lee, Bora;Cho, NangHyun;Lim, Jong-Hwan;Kim, Eun-Sook
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.111 no.3
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    • pp.385-393
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    • 2022
  • The study was carried out in Pocheon-si, Gyeonggi-do from March to December in 2019 to compare and analyze the water use strategies of two co-occurring tree species, Pinus densiflora and Quercus serrata, both native and dominant in Korea's forest ecosystems. Through seasonal changes, we measured environmental variables such as air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, net radiation, and soil water content. Sap flow densities of P. densiflora (n = 6) and Q. serrata (n = 3) were measured, along with environmental variables. The maximum sa pflow density for Q. serrata almost doubled that of P. densiflora during the growing season, while the maximum sap flow densities in both Q. serrata and P. densiflora peaked in September and August, respectively. Net radiation and vapor pressure deficit, but not air temperature, were the major environmental variables significantly affecting sap flow density. Analysis of hysteresis revealed that P. densiflora exhibited isohydric behavior, while Q. serrata showed anisohydric behavior. Analysis of crown conductance revealed similar trends as sap flow density, i.e., the crown conductance of Q. serrata was twice that of P. densiflora during the growing period. The study compared and analyzed the water use strategies between two co-occurring species. To better understand the underlying mechanisms of water use, more research on both physiological and morphological traits are needed.

Long-Term Trend of Picophytoplankton Contribution to the Phytoplankton Community in the East Sea (동해 식물플랑크톤 군집에 대한 초미소 식물플랑크톤(< 2 ㎛) 기여도 장기 경향성 연구)

  • Hyo Keun Jang;Dabin Lee;Sang Heon Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.525-535
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    • 2023
  • In thi study, we unveil the intricate interplay among picophytoplankton (0.2-2 ㎛) communities, warming surface water temperatures, and major inorganic nutrients within the southwestern East Sea from 2003-2022. The observed surface temperature rise, reflecting global climate trends, defies conventional seasonal patterns in temperate seas, with highest temperatures in summer and lowest in spring. Concurrently, concentrations of major dissolved inorganic nutrient display distinct seasonality, with peaks in winter and gradually declining thereafter during spring. The time course of chlorophyll-a concentrations, a proxy for phytoplankton biomass, reveals a typical bimodal pattern for temperate seas. Notably, contributions from picophytoplankton exhibited a steady annual increase of approximately 0.5% over the study period, although the total chlorophyll-a concentrations declined slightly. The strong correlations between picophytoplankton contributions and inorganic nutrient concentrations is noteworthy, highlighting their competitively advantageous responsiveness to the shifting nutrient regime. These findings reflect significant ecological implications for the scientific insights into the marine ecosystem responses to changing climate conditions.

The current state and prospects of travel business development under the COVID-19 pandemic

  • Tkachenko, Tetiana;Pryhara, Olha;Zatsepina, Nataly;Bryk, Stepan;Holubets, Iryna;Havryliuk, Alla
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.21 no.12spc
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    • pp.664-674
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    • 2021
  • The relevance of this scientific research is determined by the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the current trends and dynamics of world tourism development. This article aims to identify patterns of development of the modern tourist market, analysis of problems and prospects of development in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Materials and methods. General scientific methods and methods of research are used in the work: analysis, synthesis, comparison, analysis of statistical data. The analysis of the viewpoints of foreign and domestic authors on the research of the international tourist market allowed us to substantiate the actual directions of tourism development due to the influence of negative factors connected with the spread of a new coronavirus infection COVID-19. Economic-statistical, abstract-logical, and economic-mathematical methods of research were used during the process of study and data processing. Results. The analysis of the current state of the tourist market by world regions was carried out. It was found that tourism is one of the most affected sectors from COVID-19, as, by the end of 2020, the total number of tourist arrivals in the world decreased by 74% compared to the same period in 2019. The consequence of this decline was a loss of total global tourism revenues by the end of 2020, which equaled $1.3 trillion. 27% of all destinations are completely closed to international tourism. At the end of 2020, the economy of international tourism has shrunk by about 80%. In 2020 the world traveled 98 million fewer people (-83%) relative to the same period last year. Tourism was hit hardest by the pandemic in the Asia-Pacific region, where travel restrictions are as strict as possible. International arrivals in this region fell by 84% (300 million). The Middle East and Africa recorded declines of 75 and 70 percent. Despite a small and short-lived recovery in the summer of 2020, Europe lost 71% of the tourist flow, with the European continent recording the largest drop in absolute terms compared with 2019, 500 million. In North and South America, foreign arrivals declined. It is revealed that a significant decrease in tourist flows leads to a massive loss of jobs, a sharp decline in foreign exchange earnings and taxes, which limits the ability of states to support the tourism industry. Three possible scenarios of exit of the tourist industry from the crisis, reflecting the most probable changes of monthly tourist flows, are considered. The characteristics of respondents from Ukraine, Germany, and the USA and their attitude to travel depending on gender, age, education level, professional status, and monthly income are presented. About 57% of respondents from Ukraine, Poland, and the United States were planning a tourist trip in 2021. Note that people with higher or secondary education were more willing to plan such a trip. The results of the empirical study confirm that interest in domestic tourism has increased significantly in 2021. The regression model of dependence of the number of domestic tourist trips on the example of Ukraine with time tendency (t) and seasonal variations (Turˆt = 7288,498 - 20,58t - 410,88∑5) it forecast for 2020, which allows stabilizing the process of tourist trips after the pandemic to use this model to forecast for any country. Discussion. We should emphasize the seriousness of the COVID-19 pandemic and the fact that many experts and scientists believe in the long-term recovery of the tourism industry. In our opinion, the governments of the countries need to refocus on domestic tourism and deal with infrastructure development, search for new niches, formats, formation of new package deals in new - domestic - segment (new products' development (tourist routes, exhibitions, sightseeing programs, special rehabilitation programs after COVID) -19 in sanatoriums, etc.); creation of individual offers for different target audiences). Conclusions. Thus, the identified trends are associated with a decrease in the number of tourist flows, the negative impact of the pandemic on employment and income from tourism activities. International tourism needs two to four years before it returns to the level of 2019.

Tracing the Drift Ice Using the Particle Tracking Method in the Arctic Ocean (북극해에서 입자추적 방법을 이용한 유빙 추적 연구)

  • Park, GwangSeob;Kim, Hyun-Cheol;Lee, Taehee;Son, Young Baek
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.34 no.6_2
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    • pp.1299-1310
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    • 2018
  • In this study, we analyzed distribution and movement trends using in-situ observations and particle tracking methods to understand the movement of the drift ice in the Arctic Ocean. The in-situ movement data of the drift ice in the Arctic Ocean used ITP (Ice-Tethered Profiler) provided by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) from 2009 to 2018, which was analyzed with the location and speed for each year. Particle tracking simulates the movement of the drift ice using daily current and wind data provided by HYCOM (Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, 2009-2017). In order to simulate the movement of the drift ice throughout the Arctic Ocean, ITP data, a field observation data, were used as input to calculate the relationship between the current and wind and follow up the Lagrangian particle tracking. Particle tracking simulations were conducted with two experiments taking into account the effects of current and the combined effects of current and wind, most of which were reproduced in the same way as in-situ observations, given the effects of currents and winds. The movement of the drift ice in the Arctic Ocean was reproduced using a wind-imposed equation, which analyzed the movement of the drift ice in a particular year. In 2010, the Arctic Ocean Index (AOI) was a negative year, with particles clearly moving along the Beaufort Gyre, resulting in relatively large movements in Beaufort Sea. On the other hand, in 2017 AOI was a positive year, with most particles not affected by Gyre, resulting in relatively low speed and distance. Around the pole, the speed of the drift ice is lower in 2017 than 2010. From seasonal characteristics in 2010 and 2017, the movement of the drift ice increase in winter 2010 (0.22 m/s) and decrease to spring 2010 (0.16 m/s). In the case of 2017, the movement is increased in summer (0.22 m/s) and decreased to spring time (0.13 m/s). As a result, the particle tracking method will be appropriate to understand long-term drift ice movement trends by linking them with satellite data in place of limited field observations.

Review on the impact of Arctic Amplification on winter cold surges over east Asia (북극 온난화 증폭이 겨울철 동아시아 한파 발생에 미치는 영향 고찰)

  • Seong-Joong Kim;Jeong-Hun Kim;Sang-Yoon Jun;Maeng-Ki Kim;Solji Lee
    • The Korean Journal of Quaternary Research
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    • v.33 no.1_2
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2021
  • In response to the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases, the global mean temperature is rising rapidly. In particular, the warming of the Arctic is two to three times faster than the rest. Associated with the rapid Arctic warming, the sea ice shows decreasing trends in all seasons. The faster Arctic warming is due to ice-albedo feedback by the presence of snow and ice in polar regions, which have higher reflectivity than the ocean, the bare land, or vegetation, higher long-wave heat loss to space than lower latitudes by lower surface temperature in the Arctic than lower latitudes, different stability of atmosphere between the Arctic and lower latitudes, where low stability leads to larger heat losses to atmosphere from surface by larger latent heat fluxes than the Arctic, where high stability, especially in winter, prohibits losing heat to atmosphere, increase in clouds and water vapor in the Arctic atmosphere that subsequently act as green house gases, and finally due to the increase in sensible heat fluxes from low latitudes to the Arctic via lower troposphere. In contrast to the rapid Arctic warming, in midlatitudes, especially in eastern Asia and eastern North America, cold air outbreaks occur more frequently and last longer in recent decades. Two pathways have been suggested to link the Arctic warming to cold air outbreaks over midlatitudes. The first is through troposphere in synoptic-scales by enhancing the Siberian high via a development of Rossby wave trains initiated from the Arctic, especially the Barents-Kara Seas. The second is via stratosphere by activating planetary waves to stratosphere and beyond, that leads to warming in the Arctic stratosphere and increase in geopotential height that subsequently weakens the polar vortex and results in cold air outbreaks in midlatitudes for several months. There exists lags between the Arctic warming and cold events in midlatitudes. Thus, understanding chain reactions from the Arctic warming to midlatitude cooling could help improve a predictability of seasonal winter weather in midlatitudes. This study reviews the results on the Arctic warming and its connection to midlatitudes and examines the trends in surface temperature and the Arctic sea ice.

Ecophysiological Interpretations on the Water Relations Parameters of Trees(VII) - Measurement of Water Flow by the Heat Pulse Method in a Larix leptolepis Stand - (수목(樹木)의 수분특성(水分特性)에 관(關)한 생리(生理)·생태학적(生態學的) 해석(解析)(VII) - Heat pulse법(法)에 의한 낙엽송임분(林分)의 수액류속(樹液流速) 계측(計測) -)

  • Han, Sang Sup;Kim, Sun Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.82 no.2
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    • pp.152-165
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    • 1993
  • This is the basic study in order to know the amount of transpirational water loss in a Larix leptorepis stand by a heat pulse method. Especially this study has been measured and discussed the diurnal and seasonal trends of heat pulse velocity by changes of radiation, temperature and humidity, differences of heat pulse velocity by direction and depth in stem, differences of heat pulse velocity by dominant, codominant and suppressed trees, diurnal change of heat pulse velocity by change of leaf water potential, sap flow path way in sapwood by dye penetration and amount of daily and annual transpiration in a tree and stand. The results obtained as follows : 1. Relation between heat pulse velocity(V) and sap flow rate(SFR) was established as a equation of SFR=1.37V($r=0.96^{**}$). 2. The sap flow rate presented in the order of dominant, codominant and suppressed tree, respectively. The daily heat pulse velocity was changed by radiation, temperature and vapor pressure deficit. 3. The heat pulse velocity in individual trees did not differ in early morning and in late night, but had some differed from 12 to 16 hours when radiation was relatively high. 4. The heat pulse velocity and leaf water potential showed similar diurnal variation. 5. The seasonal variation of heat pulse velocity was highest in August, but lowest in October and similar value of heat pulse velocity in the other months. 6. The heat pulse velocity in stem by direction was highest in eastern, but lowest in southern and similar velocity in western and northern. 7. The difference of heat pulse velocity in according to depths was highest in 2.0cm depth, medium in 1.0cm depth, and lowest in 3.0cm depth from surface of stem. 8. The sap flow path way in stem showed spiral ascent turning right pattern in five sample trees, especially showed little spiral ascent turning right in lower part than 3m hight above ground, but very speedy in higher than 3m hight. 9. The amount of sap flow(SF) was presented as a equation of SF=1.37AV and especially SF in dominant tree was larger than in codominant or suppressed tree. 10. The amount of daily transpiration was 30.8ton/ha/day and its composition ratio was 83% at day and 17% at night. 11. The amount of stand transpiration per month was largest in August(1,194ton/ha/month), lowest in May (386ton/ha/month). The amount of stand transpiration per year was 3,983ton/ha/year.

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Recent Trends in Blooming Dates of Spring Flowers and the Observed Disturbance in 2014 (최근의 봄꽃 개화 추이와 2014년 개화시기의 혼란)

  • Lee, Ho-Seung;Kim, Jin-Hee;Yun, Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.396-402
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    • 2014
  • The spring season in Korea features a dynamic landscape with a variety of flowers such as magnolias, azaleas, forsythias, cherry blossoms and royal azaleas flowering sequentially one after another. However, the narrowing of south-north differences in flowering dates and those among the flower species was observed in 2014, taking a toll on economic and shared communal values of seasonal landscape. This study was carried out to determine whether the 2014 incidence is an outlier or a mega trend in spring phenology. Data on flowering dates of forsythias and cherry blossoms, two typical spring flower species, as observed for the recent 60 years in 6 weather stations of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) indicate that the difference spanning the flowering date of forsythias, the flower blooming earlier in spring, and that of cherry blossoms that flower later than forsythias was 30 days at the longest and 14 days on an average in the climatological normal year for the period 1951-1980, comparing with the period 1981-2010 when the difference narrowed to 21 days at the longest and 11 days on an average. The year 2014 in particular saw the gap further narrowing down to 7 days, making it possible to see forsythias and cherry blossoms blooming at the same time in the same location. 'Cherry blossom front' took 20 days in traveling from Busan, the earliest flowering station, to Incheon, the latest flowering station, in the case of the 1951-1980 normal year, while 16 days for the 1981-2010 and 6 days for 2014 were observed. The delay in flowering date of forsythias for each time period was 20, 17, and 12 days, respectively. It is presumed that the recent climate change pattern in the Korean Peninsula as indicated by rapid temperature hikes in late spring contrastive to slow temperature rise in early spring immediately after dormancy release brought forward the flowering date of cherry blossoms which comes later than forsythias which flowers early in spring. Thermal time based heating requirements for flowering of 2 species were estimated by analyzing the 60 year data at the 6 locations and used to predict flowering date in 2014. The root mean square error for the prediction was within 2 days from the observed flowering dates in both species at all 6 locations, showing a feasibility of thermal time as a prognostic tool.

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Water Quality in Geum-River Watershed and Their Influences by Landuse Pattern (금강 수계의 시.공간적 수질특성과 토지이용도의 영향)

  • Han, Jeong-Ho;Bae, Young-Ju;An, Kwang-Guk
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.385-399
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    • 2010
  • The objective of this study was to analyze long term temporal trends of water chemistry and spatial heterogeneity for 83 sampling sites of Geum-River watershed using water quality dataset during 2003~2007 (obtained from the Ministry of Environment, Korea). The water quality, based on multi-parameters of temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), suspended solids (SS), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and electric conductivity (EC), largely varied depending on the landuse patterns, years and seasons. The watershed was classified into three different landuse types: forest stream (Fo), agricultural stream (Ag), and urban stream (Ur). Largest seasonal variabilities in most parameters occurred during the two months of July to August and these were closely associated with large spate of summer monsoon rain. Conductivity, used as a key indicator for an ionic dilution during rainy season, and nutrients of TN and TP had inverse functions of precipitation. BOD, COD decrease during the rainy season. Minimum values in the conductivity, TN, and TP were observed during the summer monsoon, indicating an ionic and nutrient dilution of river water by the rainwater. In contrast, major inputs of suspended solids (SS) occurred during the period of summer monsoon. The landuse patterns analyses, based on the variables of BOD, COD, TN, TP and SS, showed that the values were greater in the agricultural stream (Ag) than in the forest stream (Fo) and urban stream (Ur) and that water quality was worst in the urban stream (Ur). The overall dataset suggest that efficient water quality management, especially in Gap-Stream and Miho-Stream, which showed worst water quality is required along with some of urban stream (Ur), based on the analysis of landuse patterns.

Variability of Satellite-derived Chlorophyll-a Concentration in Relation to Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Variation (인도양 쌍극진동 변동에 따른 위성에서 추정된 표층 클로로필-a 농도 변화 연구)

  • Son, Young Baek;Kim, Suk Hyun;Kim, Sang-Hyun;Rho, TaeKeun
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.33 no.6_1
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    • pp.917-930
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    • 2017
  • To understand the temporal and spatial variations of surface chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a) distribution in the Indian Ocean ($30^{\circ}E{\sim}120^{\circ}E$, $30^{\circ}S{\sim}30^{\circ}N$) by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), we conducted EOF and K means analyses of monthly satellite-derived Chl-a data in the region during 1998~2016 periods. Chl-a showed low values in the central region of the Indian Ocean and relatively high values in the upwelling region and around the marginal regions of the Indian Ocean. It also had a strong seasonal variation of Chl-a, showing the lowest value in the spring and the highest value in summer due to the change of the monsoon and current system. The EOF analysis showed that Chl-a variation in EOF mode 1 is related to ENSO (El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$/Southern Oscillation) and that of mode 2 is linked to IOD. Both modes explained spatially opposite trends of Chl-a in the east and west Indian Ocean. From K means analysis, the Chl-a variation in the east and west Indian Ocean, and around India have relatively good relationship with IOD while that in the tropical and middle Indian Ocean closely associated with ENSO. The spatial and temporal distribution of Chl-a also showed distinct spatial and temporal variations depend on the different types of IOD events. IOD classifies two patterns, which occurred during the developing ENSO (First Type IOD) and the year following ENSO event (Second Type IOD). Chl-a variation in the First Type IOD started in summer and peaked in fall around the east and west Indian Ocean. Chl-a variation in the Second Type IOD occurred started in spring, peaked in summer and fall, and disappeared in winter. In the Chl-a variation related to IOD, developing process appearing in the Chl-a difference between the east and west Indian ocean was similar. Chl-a variation in the northern Indian Ocean were opposite trend with changing developing phase of IOD.