• Proceedings of the Korea Committee for Ocean Resources and Engineering Conference
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• 2002.10a
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• pp.100-107
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• 2002

This study investigates the seasonal variation and spatial distribution characteristics of pollutant load, as executing the quantity valuation of pollutant load inflowing into Yeong-Il bay from on-land including the Hyeong-san river. Annual total pollutant generating rate from Yeong-Il bay region are 202ton to BOD, 620ton to SS, 42ton to T-N, 16ton to T-P respectively, if expressly point out, pollutant generating rate from the Hyeong-san river is the greatest, which BOD ratio is 78.2%, SS 88.5%, T-N 62.5%, T-P 73.1%. As calculating Tank model with input value of daily precipitation and evaporation of 2001 year in drainage basin of the Hyeong-san river, Estimated result of the annual total river discharge effluencing from this river is $830{\times}106m^3$. As result to estimating annual total effluence rate outflowing at the rivers from each drainage basins, annual total inflow pollutant rate are BOD 10,633ton, SS 19,302ton, T-N 15,369ton, T-P 305ton. The III basin which is population congestion region of the Pohang-city drain away a good many pollutant load than the V basin including the Neang-Chun with wide drainage area. Especially, a great many T-N than T-P inflow into Yeong-Il bay. The accumulation of pollutant load effluenced from on-land will happen on at the inner coast region of Yeong-Il bay, finally we would make a prediction that the water quality will take a bad turn.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.139-148
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• 2019

This study proposed a multiple intervention time series model to predict KTX passenger demand. In order to revise the research of Kim and Kim (Korean Society for Railway, 14, 470-476, 2011) considering only the intervention of the second phase of Gyeong-bu before November of 2011, we adopted multiple intervention seasonal ARIMA models to model the time series data with additional interventions which occurred after November of 2011. Through the data analysis, it was confirmed that the effects of various interventions such as Gyeong-bu and Ho-nam 2 phase, outbreak of MERS and national holidays, which affected the KTX transportation demand, are successfully explained and the prediction accuracy could be quite improved significantly.

• KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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• v.3
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• pp.41-48
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• 1965

This study was aimed at knowing the magnitude of year variation in rice heading dates under the different seasonal cultures, and to estimate the heading date in advance. Using six rice varieties such as Kwansan, Suwon＃82, Suwon ＃144, Norin＃17, Yukoo＃132 and Paltal, the early, ordinary and late seasonal cultures had been carried out at Paddy Crop Division, Crop Experiment Station at Suwon for the six-year period 1959 to 1964. In addition the data of the standard rice cultures at the Provincial Offices of Rural Development for the 12-year period 1953 to 1954, were analyzed for the purpose of clarifying a relationship between variation of rice heading dates and some of meteorological data related to the locations and years. The results of this study are as follows: 1. Year variation of rice heading dates was as high as 14 to 21 days in the early seasonal culture and 7 to 14 days in the ordinary seasonal culture, while as low as one to seven days in the late seasonal culture which was the lowest among three cultures. The magnitude of variation depended greatly on variety, cultural season and location. 2. It was found out that there was a close negative correlation between the accumulated average air temperature for 40 days from 31 days after seeding and number of days to heading in the early seasonal culture. Accordingly, it was considered possible to predict the rice heading date through calculation of the accumulated average air temperature for the above period and then the linear regression(Y=a+bx). On the other hand, an estimation of the heading date in the late seasonal culture requires for the further studies. In the ordinary seasonal culture, no significant correlation between the accumulated average air temperature and number of days to heading was obtained in the six-year experiments conducted at Suwon. There was a varietal difference in relationship between the accumulated average air temperature for 70 days from seeding and number of days to heading in the standard cultures at the provincial offices of rural development. Some of varieties showed a significant correlation between two factors while the others didn't show any significant correlation. However, there was no regional difference in this relationship.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.96-104
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• 2001

Usage of ecosystem models has been extended to landscape scales for understanding the effects of environmental factors on natural and agro-ecosystems and for serving as their management decision tools. Accurate prediction of spatial variation in daily temperature is required for most ecosystem models to be applied to landscape scales. There are relatively few empirical evaluations of landscape-scale temperature prediction techniques in mountainous terrain such as Korean Peninsula. We derived a periodic function of seasonal lapse rate fluctuation from analysis of elevation effects on daily temperatures. Observed daily maximum and minimum temperature data at 63 standard stations in 1999 were regressed to the latitude, longitude, distance from the nearest coastline and altitude of the stations, and the optimum models with $r^2$ of 0.65 and above were selected. Partial regression coefficients for the altitude variable were plotted against day of year, and a numerical formula was determined for simulating the seasonal trend of daily lapse rate, i.e., partial regression coefficients. The formula in conjunction with an inverse distance weighted interpolation scheme was applied to predict daily temperatures at 267 sites, where observation data are available, on randomly selected dates for winter, spring and summer in 2000. The estimation errors were smaller and more consistent than the inverse distance weighting plus mean annual lapse rate scheme. We conclude that this method is simple and accurate enough to be used as an operational temperature interpolation scheme at landscape scale in Korea and should be applicable to elsewhere.

• Atmosphere
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.257-267
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• 2019

This study is to assess the applicability of the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) algorithm of the ECMWF seasonal forecast system to the Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5 (GloSea5), operational seasonal forecast system of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). The EFI is based on the difference between Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) curves of the model's climate data and the current ensemble forecast distribution, which is essential to diagnose the predictability in the extreme cases. To investigate its applicability, the experiment was conducted during the heat-wave cases (the year of 1994 and 2003) and compared GloSea5 hindcast data based EFI with anomaly data of ERA-Interim. The data also used to determine quantitative estimates of Probability Of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), and spatial pattern correlation. The results showed that the area of ERA-Interim indicating above 4-degree temperature corresponded to the area of EFI 0.8 and above. POD showed high ratio (0.7 and 0.9, respectively), when ERA-Interim anomaly data were the highest (on Jul. 11, 1994 (> $5^{\circ}C$) and Aug. 8, 2003 (> $7^{\circ}C$), respectively). The spatial pattern showed a high correlation in the range of 0.5~0.9. However, the correlation decreased as the lead time increased. Furthermore, the case of Korea heat wave in 2018 was conducted using GloSea5 forecast data to validate EFI showed successful prediction for two to three weeks lead time. As a result, the EFI forecasts can be used to predict the probability that an extreme weather event of interest might occur. Overall, we expected these results to be available for extreme weather forecasting.

• Atmosphere
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.267-277
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• 2012

The objectives of this study are to develop a real-time drought monitoring and prediction system on the East Asia domain and to evaluate the performance of the system by using past historical drought records. The system is mainly composed of two parts: drought monitoring for providing current drought indices with meteorological and hydrological conditions; drought outlooks for suggesting future drought indices and future hydrometeorological conditions. Both parts represent the drought conditions on the East Asia domain (latitude $21.15{\sim}50.15^{\circ}$, longitude $104.40{\sim}149.65^{\circ}$), Korea domain (latitude $30.40{\sim}43.15^{\circ}$, longitude $118.65{\sim}135.65^{\circ}$) and South Korea domain (latitude $30.40{\sim}43.15^{\circ}$, longitude $118.65{\sim}135.65^{\circ}$), respectively. The observed meteorological data from ASOS (Automated Surface Observing System) and AWS (Automatic Weather System) of KMA (Korean Meteorological Administration) and model-driven hydrological data from LSM (Land Surface model) are used for the real-time drought monitoring, while the monthly and seasonal weather forecast information from UM (Unified Model) of KMA are utilized for drought outlooks. For the evaluation of the system, past historical drought records occurred in Korea are surveyed and are compared with the application results of the system. The results demonstrated that the selected drought indices such as KMA drought index, SPI (3), SPI (6), PDSI, SRI and SSI are reasonable, especially, the performance of SRI and SSI provides higher accuracy that the others.

• Journal of the korean society of oceanography
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.10-19
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• 2002

The detailed structure of a tidal front and its ebb-to flood variation in the main tidal channel of the Kyunggi Bay in the mid-west coast of Korea were investigated by analyzing CTD data and drifter trajectories collected in late July 1999. A typical tidal front was formed in water about 60 m deep at the mouth of the channel. Isotherms and isohalines in the upper layer above the seasonal pycnocline in the offshore stratified zone inclined upward to the sea surface to form a surface front, while those in the lower layer declined to the bottom front. The location of the front is consistent with $100 S^3/cm^2$ of the mixing index H/U defined by Simpson and Hunter (1974), where H is the water depth and U is the amplitude of tidal current. The potential energy anomaly in the frontal zone varied at an ebb-to flood tidal cycle, showing a minimum at slack water after ebb but a maximum at slack water after flood. This ebb-to flood variation in potential energy anomaly is not accounted for by the mixing index. We conclude that on- and offshore displacement of the water column by tidal advection is responsible for the ebb-to-flood variation in the frontal zone.

• Atmosphere
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.327-340
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• 2021

In this study, the impact of soil moisture initialization in GloSea5, the operational climate prediction system of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), has been investigated for the period of 1991~2010. To overcome the large uncertainties of soil moisture in the reanalysis, JRA55 reanalysis and CMAP precipitation were used as input of JULES land surface model and produced soil moisture initial field. Overall, both mean and variability were initialized drier and smaller than before, and the changes in the surface temperature and pressure in boreal summer and winter were examined using ensemble prediction data. More realistic soil moisture had a significant impact, especially within 2 months. The decreasing (increasing) soil moisture induced increases (decreases) of temperature and decreases (increases) of sea-level pressure in boreal summer and its impacts were maintained for 3~4 months. During the boreal winter, its effect was less significant than in boreal summer and maintained for about 2 months. On the other hand, the changes of surface temperature were more noticeable in the southern hemisphere, and the relationship between temperature and soil moisture was the same as the boreal summer. It has been noted that the impact of land initialization is more evident in the summer hemispheres, and this is expected to improve the simulation of summer heat wave in the KMA's operational climate prediction system.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.16 no.12
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• pp.293-299
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• 2018

The weather has a lot of influence on the cultivation of crops. Weather information on agricultural crop cultivation areas is indispensable for efficient cultivation and management of agricultural crops. Despite the high demand for agricultural weather, research on this is in short supply. In this research, we deal with the production method of agricultural weather in Jeollanam-do, which is the main production area of onions through GloSea5 and deep learning. A deep neural network model using the sliding window method was used and utilized to train daily weather prediction for predicting the agricultural weather. RMSE and MAE are used for evaluating the accuracy of the model. The accuracy improves as the learning period increases, so we compare the prediction performance according to the learning period and the prediction period. As a result of the analysis, although the learning period and the prediction period are similar, there was a limit to reflect the trend according to the seasonal change. a modified deep layer neural network model was presented, that applying the difference between the predicted value and the observed value to the next day predicted value.

• Atmosphere
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.509-520
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• 2018

The performance of the newly designed Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model (PNU CGCM) Ensemble Forecast System which produce 40 ensemble members for 12-month lead prediction is evaluated and analyzed in terms of boreal winter temperature over South Korea (S. Korea). The influence of ensemble size on prediction skill is examined with 40 ensemble members and the result shows that spreads of predictability are larger when the size of ensemble member is smaller. Moreover, it is suggested that more than 20 ensemble members are required for better prediction of statistically significant inter-annual variability of wintertime temperature over S. Korea. As for the ensemble average (ENS), it shows superior forecast skill compared to each ensemble member and has significant temporal correlation with Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) temperature at 99% confidence level. In addition to forecast skill for inter-annual variability of wintertime temperature over S. Korea, winter climatology around East Asia and synoptic characteristics of warm (above normal) and cold (below normal) winters are reasonably captured by PNU CGCM. For the categorical forecast with $3{\times}3$ contingency table, the deterministic forecast generally shows better performance than probabilistic forecast except for warm winter (hit rate of probabilistic forecast: 71%). It is also found that, in case of concentrated distribution of 40 ensemble members to one category out of the three, the probabilistic forecast tends to have relatively high predictability. Meanwhile, in the case when the ensemble members distribute evenly throughout the categories, the predictability becomes lower in the probabilistic forecast.