Application of Land Initialization and its Impact in KMA's Operational Climate Prediction System |
Lim, Somin
(Climate Model Development Team, Operational Systems Development Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences)
Hyun, Yu-Kyung (Climate Model Development Team, Operational Systems Development Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) Ji, Heesook (Climate Model Development Team, Operational Systems Development Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) Lee, Johan (Climate Model Development Team, Operational Systems Development Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) |
1 | Vitart, F., A. W. Robertson, and D. L. T. Anderson, 2012: Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project: Bridging the gap between weather and climate. WMO Bulletin, 61, 23-28. |
2 | Seo, E., and Coauthors, 2019: Impact of soil moisture initialization on boreal summer subseasonal forecasts: mid-latitude surface air temperature and heat wave events. Climate Dyn., 52, 1695-1709, doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4221-4. DOI |
3 | Brown, A., S. Milton, M. Cullen, B. Golding, J. Mitchell, and A. Shelly, 2012: Unified modeling and prediction of weather and climate: A 25-year journey. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 1865-1877, doi:10.1175/BAMSD-12-00018.1. DOI |
4 | Giorgi, F., and R. Francisco, 2000: Uncertainties in regional climate change prediction: a regional analysis of ensemble simulations with the HADCM2 coupled AOGCM. Climate Dyn., 16, 169-182, doi:10.1007/PL00013733. DOI |
5 | Joo, J. Y., M. Choi, S. W. Jung, and S. O. Lee, 2010: Prediction of soil moisture using hydrometeorological data in Selmacheon. KSCE J. CEER, 30, 437-444 (in Korean with English abstract). |
6 | Hwang, S. O., and Coauthors, 2020: Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts. National Institute Meteorological Sciences, 186 pp [Available online at https://policy.nl.go.kr/search/searchDetail.do?rec_key=SH1_UMO20201209700&kwd=] (in Korean). |
7 | Xie, P., and P. A. Arkin, 1997: Global precipitation: A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2539-2558, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2539:GPAYMA>2.0.CO;2. DOI |
8 | Zhang, T., R. G. Barry, D. Gilichinsky, S. S. Bykhovets, V. A. Sorokovikov, and J. Ye, 2001: An amplified signal of climatic change in soil temperatures during the last century at Irkutsk, Russia. Climatic Change, 49, 41-76, doi:10.1023/A:1010790203146. DOI |
9 | Koster, R. D., and Coauthors, 2010: Contribution of land surface initialization to subseasonal forecast skill: First results from a multi-model experiment. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L02402, doi:10.1029/2009GL041677. DOI |
10 | Hunke, E. C., and W. H. Lipscomb, 2010: CICE: the Los Alamos sea ice model documentation and software user's manual, Version 4.1, LA-CC-06-012. Tech. rep., Los Alamos National Laboratory, 76 pp. |
11 | Hyun, Y.-K., J. Park, J. Lee, S. Lim, S.-I. Heo, H. Ham, S.-M. Lee, H.-S. Ji, and Y. Kim, 2020: Reliability assessment of temperature and precipitation seasonal probability in current climate prediction systems. Atmosphere, 30, 141-154, doi:10.14191/Atmos.2020.30.2.141 (in Korean with English abstract). DOI |
12 | Jeong, J.-H., H. W. Linderholm, S.-H. Woo, C. Folland, B.-M. Kim, S.-J. Kim, and D. Chen, 2013: Impacts of snow initialization on subseasonal forecasts of surfa ce a ir tempera ture for the cold sea son. J. Climate, 26, 1956-1972, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00159.1. DOI |
13 | Best, M. J., and Coauthors, 2011: The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description - Part 1: Energy and water fluxes. Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 677-699, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-677-2011. DOI |
14 | Jeong, J.-H., and Coauthors, 2017: The status and prospect of seasonal climate prediction of climate over Korea and East Asia: A review. Asia-Pac. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 149-173, doi:10.1007/s13143-017-0008-5. DOI |
15 | Kim, S. O., M.-S. Suh, and K. Chong-Heum, 2005: Climatological characteristics in the variation of soil temperature in Korea. J. Korean Earth Sci. Soc., 26, 93- 105 (in Korean with English abstract). |
16 | Berrisford, P., D. P. Dee, M. Fielding, M. Fuentes, P. W. Kallberg, S. Kobayashi, and S. Uppala, 2009: The ERA-Interim archive. ERA Report Series, Tech. Rep. 16 pp. |
17 | Bowler, N. E., A. Arribas, S. E. Beare, K. R. Mylne, and G. J. Shutts, 2009: The local ETKF and SKEB: Upgrades to the MOGREPS short-range ensemble prediction system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 135, 767-776, doi:10.1002/qj.394. DOI |
18 | Dirmeyer, P. A., 2003: The role of the land surface background state in climate predictability. J. Hydrometeor., 4, 599-610, doi:10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<0599:TROTLS>2.0.CO;2. DOI |
19 | Ebita, A., and Coauthors, 2011: The Japanese 55-year reanalysis "JRA-55": An interim report. SOLA, 7, 149-152, doi:10.2151/sola.2011-038. DOI |
20 | Entin, J. K., A. Robock, K. Y. Vinnikov, S. E. Hollinger, S. Liu, and A. Namkhai, 2000: Temporal and spatial scales of observed soil moisture variations in the extratropics. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 105, 11865-11877, doi:10.1029/2000JD900051. DOI |
21 | Koster, R. D., and Coauthors, 2011: The second phase of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment: Soil moisture contributions to subseasonal forecast skill. J. Hydrometeor., 12, 805-822, doi:10.1175/2011JHM1365.1. DOI |
22 | Koster, R. D., M. J. Suarez, P. Liu, U. Jambor, A. Berg, M. Kistler, R. Reichle, M. Rodell, and J. Famiglietti, 2004: Realistic initialization of land surface states: Impacts on subseasonal forecast skill. J. Hydrometeor., 5, 1049-1063, doi:10.1175/JHM-387.1. DOI |
23 | Koster, R. D., and M. J. Suarez, 2003: Impact of land surface initialization on seasonal precipitation and temperature prediction. J. Hydrometeor., 4, 16. |
24 | Fischer, E. M., S. I. Seneviratne, P. L. Vidale, D. Luthi, and C. Schar, 2007: Soil moisture-atmosphere interactions during the 2003 European summer heat wave. J. Climate, 20, 5081-5099, doi:10.1175/JCLI4288.1. DOI |
25 | MacLachlan, C., and Coauthors, 2015: Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): a high-resolution seasonal forecast system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 141, 1072-1084, doi:10.1002/qj.2396. DOI |
26 | Madec, G., 2008: NEMO Ocean Engine. Note du Pole de Modelisation, 27, Institute Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), 300 pp. |
27 | National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2016: Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts. The National Academies Press. 350 pp, doi:10.17226/21873. |
28 | Reichle, R. H., and R. D. Koster, 2004: Bias reduction in short records of satellite soil moisture. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L19501, doi:10.1029/2004GL020938. DOI |
29 | Robertson, A. W., A. Kumar, M. Pena, and F. Vitart, 2015: Improving and promoting subseasonal to seasonal prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, ES49-ES53, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00139.1. DOI |
30 | Sehler, R., J. Li, J. T. Reager, and H. Ye, 2019: Investigating relationship between soil moisture and precipitation globally using remote sensing observations. J. Contemp. Water Res. Edu., 168, 106-118, doi:10.1111/j.1936-704X.2019.03324.x. DOI |
31 | Seo, E., M.-I. Lee, S. D. Schubert, R. D. Koster, and H.-S. Kang, 2020: Investigation of the 2016 Eurasia heat wave as an event of the recent warming. Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 114018, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abbbae. DOI |
32 | Walters, D. N., and Coauthors, 2011: The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 3.0/3.1 and JULES Global Land 3.0/3.1 configurations. Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 919-941, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-919-2011. DOI |
33 | Seo, E., M.-I. Lee, J.-H. Jeong, H.-S. Kang, and D.-J. Won, 2016: Improvement of soil moisture initialization for a global seasonal forecast system. Atmosphere, 26, 35-45, doi:10.14191/Atmos.2016.26.1.035 (in Korean with English abstract). DOI |
34 | Lea, D. J., I. Mirouze, M. J. Martin, R. R. King, A. Hines, D. Walters, and M. Thurlow, 2015: Assessing a new coupled data assimilation system based on the Met Office coupled atmosphere-land-ocean-sea ice model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 4678-4694, doi:10.1175/MWRD-15-0174.1. DOI |
35 | Milly, P. C. D., and K. A. Dunne, 2001: Trends in evaporation and surface cooling in the Mississippi River Basin. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1219-1222, doi:10.1029/2000GL012321. DOI |
36 | Reichle, R. H., G. De Lannoy, R. D. Koster, W. T. Crow, J. S. Kimball, and Q. Liu. 2020: SMAP L4 Global 3-hourly 9 km EASE-Grid Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture Analysis Update, Version 5. NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center, doi:10.5067/0D8JT6S27BS9. |
37 | White, C. J., and Coauthors, 2017: Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions. Meteor. Appl., 24, 315-325, doi:10.1002/met.1654. DOI |
38 | Tennant, W. J., G. J. Shutts, A. Arribas, and S. A. Thompson, 2011: Using a stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme to improve MOGREPS probabilistic forecast skill. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 1190-1206, doi:10.1175/2010MWR3430.1. DOI |