• 응용통계연구
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.219-228
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• 2004

오차항의 분포가 정규분포에 따르지 않는 비선형 시계열인 ARCH모형의 예측구간을 설정하는데 붓스트랩 방법과 근사적 방법간의 포함비율에 대한 정확성을 비교한다. 이 때 모형에서 모수를 추정하는 방법으로서는 분포에 대한 가정을 필요로 하지 않는 quasi-score 추정함수를 이용한 추정 법과 로버스트 추정 함수인 M quasi-score 추정 함수를 이용한 추정법을 사용한다. 추정된 모수를 이용하여 예측구간의 정확성을 비교하고 마지막으로 소비자 물가지수 자료를 이용하여 실제 예측구간을 구하는데 적용한다.

• 대한지역사회영양학회지
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• 제4권3호
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• pp.421-430
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• 1999

A neural network system was applied in order to analyze the nutritional and other factors influencing chronic diseases. Five different nutrition evaluation methods including SD Score, %RDA, NAR INQ and %RDA-SD Score were utilized to facilitate nutrient data for the system. Observing top three chronic disease prediction ratio, WHR using SD Score was the most frequently quoted factor revealing the highest predication rate as 62.0%. Other high prediction rates using other data processing methods are as follows. Prediction rate with %RDA, NAR, INQ and %RDA-SD Score were 58.5%(diabetes), 53.5%(hyperlipidemia), 51.6%(diabetes), and 58.0%(diabetes)respectively. Higher prediction rate was observed using either NAR or INQ for obesity as 51.7% and 50.9% compared to the previous result using SD Score. After reviewing appearance rate for all chronic disease and for various data processing method used, it was found that iron and vitamin C were the most frequently cited factors resulting in high prediction rate.

• 대한화상학회지
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.1-6
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• 2021

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of four prediction models in adult burn patients. Methods: This retrospective study was conducted on 696 adult burn patients who were treated at burn intensive care unit (BICU) of Hallym University Hangang Sacred Heart Hospital from January 2017 to December 2019. The models are ABSI, APACHE IV, rBaux and Hangang score. Results: The discrimination of each prediction model was analyzed as AUC of ROC curve. AUC value was the highest with Hangang score of 0.931 (0.908~0.954), followed by rBaux 0.896 (0.867~0.924), ABSI 0.883 (0.853~0.913) and APACHE IV 0.851 (0.818~0.884). Conclusion: The results of evaluating the accuracy of the four models, Hangang score showed the highest prediction. But it is necessary to apply the appropriate prediction model according to characteristics of the burn center.

• 한국재료학회지
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• 제33권7호
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• pp.273-278
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• 2023

In this study, based on the saturation magnetic flux density experimental values (B_s) of 622 Fe-based bulk metallic glasses (BMGs), regression models were applied to predict B_s using artificial neural networks (ANN), and prediction performance was evaluated. Model performance evaluation was investigated by using the F1 score together with the coefficient of determination (R² score), which is mainly used in regression models. The coefficient of determination can be used as a performance indicator, since it shows the predicted results of the saturation magnetic flux density of full material datasets in a balanced way. However, the BMG alloy contains iron and requires a high saturation magnetic flux density to have excellent applicability as a soft magnetic material, and in this study F1 score was used as a performance indicator to better predict B_s above the threshold value of B_s (1.4 T). After obtaining two ANN models optimized for the R² and F1 score conditions, respectively, their prediction performance was compared for the test data. As a case study to evaluate the prediction performance, new Fe-based BMG datasets that were not included in the training and test datasets were predicted using the two ANN models. The results showed that the model with an excellent F1 score achieved a more accurate prediction for a material with a high saturation magnetic flux density.

• 한국인공지능학회지
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.1-7
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• 2024

In this paper, we compare three models (logistic regression, Random Forest, and XGBoost) for predicting stroke occurrence using data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). We evaluated these models using various metrics, focusing mainly on recall and F1 score to assess their performance. Initially, the logistic regression model showed a satisfactory recall score among the three models; however, it was excluded from further consideration because it did not meet the F1 score threshold, which was set at a minimum of 0.5. The F1 score is crucial as it considers both precision and recall, providing a balanced measure of a model's accuracy. Among the models that met the criteria, XGBoost showed the highest recall rate and showed excellent performance in stroke prediction. In particular, XGBoost shows strong performance not only in recall, but also in F1 score and AUC, so it should be considered the optimal algorithm for predicting stroke occurrence. This study determines that the performance of XGBoost is optimal in the field of stroke prediction.

• Bioinformatics and Biosystems
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.82-87
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• 2006

현재 가장 많이 사용되는 단백질 구조 예측 방법은 비교 모델링 (comparative modeling) 방법이다. 비교 모델링 방법에서의 정확도를 높이기 위해서는 alignment의 정확도 역시 매우 필수적으로 필요하다. 비교 모델링 과정 중의 fold-recognition 단계에서 alignment의 정확도에 의해 template을 고르는 방법은 단지 가장 비슷한 template을 선택하는 방법에 비해 주목을 받지 못하고 있다. 최근에는 두 가지의 alignment에 사이의 shift 정보를 바탕으로 한 shift score라는 수치가 alignment의 성능을 표현하기 위해서 개발되었다. 우리는 더 정확한 구조 예측의 첫걸음이 될 수 있는 shift score를 예측하는 방법을 개발하였다. Shift score를 예측하기 위해 support vector regression (SVR)이 사용되었다. 사전에 구축된 라이브러리 안의 길이가 n 인 template과 구조를 알고 싶은 query 단백질 사이의 alignment는 n+2 차원의 input 벡터로 변환된다. Structural alignment가 가장 좋은 alignment로 가정되었고 SVR은 query 단백질과 template 단백질의 structural alignment과 profile-profile alignment 사이의 shift score를 예측하도록 training 되었다. 예측 정확도는 Pearson 상관계수로 측정되었다. Training 된 SVR은 실제의 shift score와 예측된 shift score 사이에 0.80의 Pearson 상관계수를 갖는 정도로 예측하였다.

• 국토계획
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• 제54권3호
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• pp.106-118
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• 2019

In order to develop pedestrian navigation service that provides optimal pedestrian routes based on pedestrian satisfaction levels, it is required to develop a prediction model that can estimate a pedestrian's satisfaction level given a certain condition. Thus, the aim of the present study is to develop a pedestrian satisfaction prediction model based on three machine learning algorithms: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and Artificial Neural Network models. The 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015 Pedestrian Satisfaction Survey Data in Seoul, Korea are used to train and test the machine learning models. As a result, the Random Forest model shows the best prediction performance among the three (Accuracy: 0.798, Recall: 0.906, Precision: 0.842, F1 Score: 0.873, AUC: 0.795). The performance of Artificial Neural Network is the second (Accuracy: 0.773, Recall: 0.917, Precision: 0.811, F1 Score: 0.868, AUC: 0.738) and Logistic Regression model's performance follows the second (Accuracy: 0.764, Recall: 1.000, Precision: 0.764, F1 Score: 0.868, AUC: 0.575). The precision score of the Random Forest model implies that approximately 84.2% of pedestrians may be satisfied if they walk the areas, suggested by the Random Forest model.

• 한국산림과학회지
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• 제97권3호
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• pp.332-339
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• 2008

경상북도 23개 시․군 산사태 발생지 172개소를 대상지로 선정하여 산사태 발생 특성을 다양한 요인별로 조사 분석하여 산사태 발생 위험 예측을 위한 판정기준표를 작성하였다. 산사태 위험 판정기준표는 수량화 I류를 이용하여 분석하였으며, 산사태 발생량에 영향을 많이 주는 요인은 경사위치, 경사길이, 모암, 방위, 임분경급, 종단명형, 경사도의 순으로 나타났다. 산사태 발생 위험 예측을 위한 산사태 붕괴 위험도 판정기준표를 작성한 결과, 107점 미만 : 안정(IV등급), 107~176점 : 위험도 소(III등급), 177~246점 : 위험도 중(II등급), 247점 이상 : 위험도 대(I등급)로 붕괴 위험도가 구분되었다.

• Korean Journal of Radiology
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• 제22권5호
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• pp.697-705
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• 2021

Objective: To investigate the feasibility and the accuracy of the coronary CT angiography (CCTA)-derived Registry of Crossboss and Hybrid procedures in France, the Netherlands, Belgium and United Kingdom (RECHARGE) score (RECHARGECCTA) for the prediction of procedural success and 30-minutes guidewire crossing in percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for chronic total occlusion (CTO). Materials and Methods: One hundred and twenty-four consecutive patients (mean age, 54 years; 79% male) with 131 CTO lesions who underwent CCTA before catheter angiography (CA) with CTO-PCI were retrospectively enrolled in this study. The RECHARGECCTA scores were calculated and compared with RECHARGECA and other CTA-based prediction scores, including Multicenter CTO Registry of Japan (J-CTO), CT Registry of CTO Revascularisation (CT-RECTOR), and Korean Multicenter CTO CT Registry (KCCT) scores. Results: The procedural success rate of the CTO-PCI procedures was 72%, and 61% of cases achieved the 30-minutes wire crossing. No significant difference was observed between the RECHARGECCTA score and the RECHARGECA score for procedural success (median 2 vs. median 2, p = 0.084). However, the RECHARGECCTA score was higher than the RECHARGECA score for the 30-minutes wire crossing (median 2 vs. median 1.5, p = 0.001). The areas under the curve (AUCs) of the RECHARGECCTA and RECHARGECA scores for predicting procedural success showed no statistical significance (0.718 vs. 0.757, p = 0.655). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and the negative predictive value of the RECHARGECCTA scores of ≤ 2 for predictive procedural success were 78%, 60%, 43%, and 87%, respectively. The RECHARGECCTA score showed a discriminative performance that was comparable to those of the other CTA-based prediction scores (AUC = 0.718 vs. 0.665-0.717, all p > 0.05). Conclusion: The non-invasive RECHARGECCTA score performs better than the invasive determination for the prediction of the 30-minutes wire crossing of CTO-PCI. However, the RECHARGECCTA score may not replace other CTA-based prediction scores for predicting CTO-PCI success.

• 대기
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• 제32권4호
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• pp.353-365
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• 2022

This paper evaluates precipitation forecast skill of Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs) over South Korea in a boreal winter from December 2013 to February 2014. Three types of precipitation are classified based on development mechanism: 1) convection type (C type), 2) low pressure type (L type), and 3) orographic type (O type), in which their frequencies are 44.4%, 25.0%, and 30.6%, respectively. It appears that the model significantly overestimates precipitation occurrence (0.1 mm d^-1) for all types of winter precipitation. Objective measured skill scores of GRIMs are comparably high for L type and O type. Except for precipitation occurrence, the model shows high predictability for L type precipitation with the most unbiased prediction. It is noted that Equitable Threat Score (ETS) is inappropriate for measuring rare events due to its high dependency on the sample size, as in the case of Critical Success Index as well. The Symmetric Extreme Dependency Score (SEDS) demonstrates less sensitivity on the number of samples. Thus, SEDS is used for the evaluation of prediction skill to supplement the limit of ETS. The evaluation via SEDS shows that the prediction skill score for L type is the highest in the range of 5.0, 10.0 mm d^-1 and the score for O type is the highest in the range of 1.0, 20.0 mm d^-1. C type has the lowest scores in overall range. The difference in precipitation forecast skill by precipitation type can be explained by the spatial distribution and intensity of precipitation in each representative case.