• Title/Summary/Keyword: Schedule delay risk

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Quantifying Monetary Value of Float

  • Park, Young-Jun;Lee, Dong-Eun
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2015.10a
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    • pp.111-113
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    • 2015
  • Floats are used by the parties involved in a construction project. The owner may use float by changing order(s) or by executing risk avoidance plan; the contractor may use it for leveling resources or substituting activities' construction methods to reduce costs. Floats are accepted either just as by-product obtained by critical path method(CPM) scheduling or as asset having significant value. Succinctly, existing studies involved in float value does not consider its' changes on project time domain. It is important to identify float ownership and to quantify its' corresponding values. This paper presents a method that quantifies float value of money that changes over project execution. The method which accurately computes the monetary value of float may contributes to resolve conflicts relative to float ownership and/or delay issues among project participants. It compares the difference between the monetary value of total float - on non-critical path in each and every schedule update. It makes use of critical path method (CPM) and commercial software with which practitioners are already familiar.

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A parametric study on the use of passive fire protection in FPSO topside module

  • Friebe, Martin;Jang, Beom-Seon;Jim, Yanlin
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.826-839
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    • 2014
  • Fire is a continuous threat to FPSO topside modules as large amounts of oil and gas are passing through the modules. As a conventional measure to mitigate structural failure under fire, passive fire protection (PFP) coatings are widely used on main structural members. However, an excessive use of PFP coatings can cause considerable cost for material purchase, installation, inspection and maintenance. Long installation time can be a risk since the work should be done nearly at the last fabrication stage. Thus, the minimal use of PFP can be beneficial to the reduction of construction cost and the avoidance of schedule delay. This paper presents a few case studies on how different applications of PFP have influence on collapse time of a FPSO module structure. A series of heat analysis and thermal elasto-plastic FE analysis are performed for different PFP coatings and the resultant collapse time and the amount of PFP coatings are compared with each other.

Calculation of Sample Size for Guided Missile Considering Test Method and Reliability Growth (유도무기 시험평가 방법과 신뢰성 성장을 고려한 시험 수량 산출)

  • Lee, Youn-ho;Kim, Jae-hwang;Lee, Kye-shin;Lee, Jong-sin;Lee, Myoung-jin;Kim, Doo-hyun
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.844-852
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    • 2017
  • Since guided weapon is high-cost and one-shot device which is non-reusable, it requires a lot of resources to prove required accuracy as a part of reliability demonstration. Once a test for proving accuracy rate of guided missile fails, it causes an additional cost and delay of schedule. This study introduces an equation for proper sample size and plan for guided-missile accuracy rate test in order to minimize the risk of test failure. Proper sample size for the test is derived by considering the reliability growth. Furthermore, each task for accuracy rate test is defined according to the development step. Therefore, this study can contribute to reduce sample size for accuracy rate test in order to meet the reliability requirement and assure transparency in the test process.

Application of Big Data and Machine-learning (ML) Technology to Mitigate Contractor's Design Risks for Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) Projects

  • Choi, Seong-Jun;Choi, So-Won;Park, Min-Ji;Lee, Eul-Bum
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2022.06a
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    • pp.823-830
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    • 2022
  • The risk of project execution increases due to the enlargement and complexity of Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) plant projects. In the fourth industrial revolution era, there is an increasing need to utilize a large amount of data generated during project execution. The design is a key element for the success of the EPC plant project. Although the design cost is about 5% of the total EPC project cost, it is a critical process that affects the entire subsequent process, such as construction, installation, and operation & maintenance (O&M). This study aims to develop a system using machine-learning (ML) techniques to predict risks and support decision-making based on big data generated in an EPC project's design and construction stages. As a result, three main modules were developed: (M1) the design cost estimation module, (M2) the design error check module, and (M3) the change order forecasting module. M1 estimated design cost based on project data such as contract amount, construction period, total design cost, and man-hour (M/H). M2 and M3 are applications for predicting the severity of schedule delay and cost over-run due to design errors and change orders through unstructured text data extracted from engineering documents. A validation test was performed through a case study to verify the model applied to each module. It is expected to improve the risk response capability of EPC contractors in the design and construction stage through this study.

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Development of Measurement and Evaluation Process for Risk-based Configuration Factors in Mixed Used Development in Urban Regeneration Projects (복합용도 도시재생사업에서의 리스크 기반 변화요인 측정 및 평가 프로세스 개발)

  • Son, Myung-Jin;Hyun, Chang-Taek
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.94-106
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    • 2012
  • In recent years, the risks and uncertainties associated with mixed used development in urban regeneration projects which have actively been implemented at home and abroad have been on the rise due to the uncertainties of the initial business plan, difficulty of financing, increase in total cost and schedule delay. To cope with rapid social and economic changes and optimize benefits, a risk-based configuration management process that considers life cycle is required, along with accurate planning in the early stage of the business. In addition, it is necessary to prepare measures that can respond to the evaluation and measurement of the configuration factors in relation to the business process. However, the focus of previous studies on configuration management in the field of construction was mainly on humanities and the sociological aspects such as organization, leadership, ideology and similar concepts. There has been limited research on the process and measurement and evaluation methods for configuration factors required in decision-making on the risks and changes that can occur in the actual project implementation phase. Accordingly, in this study, we defined risk-based configuration factors and developed a process and MECA/3DAM/CII methodology to measure and evaluate these factors so as to carry out systematic configuration management of mixed used development in urban regeneration projects.

Probabilistic Earlier GMP Calculation Method for Apartment Using CM at Risk (CM at Risk를 적용한 공동주택의 확률론적 초기 GMP 산정방안)

  • Hyun, Chang-Taek;Go, Gun-Ho;Jin, Zhengxun
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.295-303
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    • 2018
  • In the DBB delivery system, the design stage and the construction stage are separated. Because of this, design changes frequently occur, and problems such as construction cost overrun, schedule delay, and quality deterioration happen as well. Recently, in the construction industry CM at Risk(CM@R) delivery system, which can systematically solve the above-mentioned problems of DBB delivery system, meet various demands of clients, and overcome the limited cost and period. In the CM@R delivery system, the contractor negotiates for a maximum guaranteed price(GMP) with the client at the design stage, and the CM performer carries out the construction within the GMP. However, uncertainties are inherent in the GMP calculation because the calculation is based on unfinished drawings and documents. In this study, a Probabilistic Earlier GMP Calculation Method by combining a probabilistic tool of Monte Carlo simulation with a case based reasoning is proposed so that the uncertainty in GMP calculation is reflected. After the earlier GMP is calculated, a process to calculate the $2^{nd}$ GMP at the time of around 80 % of detailed deign and to negotiate with the client to fix the final GMP is proposed. The Probabilistic Earlier GMP Calculation Method is verified through the case study. In this study, researchers set the range of GMP through the proposed probabilistic GMP calculation and tried to reduce the risk through negotiation between the client and the CM performer. The proposed method and process would contribute to the successful introduction of CM@R in Korea.