• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2009.02b
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• pp.13-24
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• 2009

This paper introduces various kinds of applications of the scenario-based seismic risk assessment in Taiwan. Seismic scenario simulation (SSS) is a GIS-based technique to assess distribution of ground shaking intensity, soil liquefaction probability, building damages and associated casualties, interruption of lifeline systems, economic losses, etc. given source parameters of an earthquake. The SSS may integrate with rapid earthquake information release system to obtain valuable information and to assist in decision-making processes to dispatch rescue and medical resources efficiently. The SSS may also integrate with probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to evaluate various kinds of risk estimates, such as average annual loss and probable maximum loss in one event, in a probabilistic sense and to help proposing feasible countermeasures.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.25 no.8
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• pp.39-45
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• 2020

Despite the increasing interest in cyber security in recent years, the emergence of new technologies has led to a shortage of professional personnel to efficiently perform the cyber security. Although various methods such as cyber rage are being used to cultivate cyber security experts, there are problems of limitation of virtual training system, scenario-based practice content development and operation, unit content-oriented development, and lack of consideration of learner level. In this paper, we develop a fuzzy rule-based user-customized training scenario automatic generation system for improving user's ability to respond to infringement. The proposed system creates and provides scenarios based on advanced persistent threats according to fuzzy rules. Thus, the proposed system can improve the trainee's ability to respond to the bed through the generated scenario.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.55 no.4
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• pp.73-82
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• 2013

The main objective of this study was to evaluate Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios-based flood risk at a Si-Gun level. A bias correction using a quantile mapping method with the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was performed to correct future precipitation data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). A series of proxy variables including CN80 (Number of days over 80 mm) and CX3h (Maximum precipitation during 3-hr) etc. were used to carry out flood risk assessment. Indicators were normalized by a Z-score method and weighted by factors estimated by principal component analysis (PCA). Flood risk evaluation was conducted for the four different time periods, i.e. 1990s, 2025s, 2055s, and 2085s, which correspond to 1976~2005, 2011~2040, 2041~2070, and 2071~2100. The average flood risk indices based on RCP4.5 scenario were 0.08, 0.16, 0.22, and 0.13 for the corresponding periods in the order of time, which increased steadily up to 2055s period and decreased. The average indices based on RCP8.5 scenario were 0.08, 0.23, 0.11, and 0.21, which decreased in the 2055s period and then increased again. Considering the average index during entire period of the future, RCP8.5 scenario resulted in greater risk than RCP4.5 scenario.

• Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.379-384
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• 2011

The scope of the problems that could be solved by monitoring and the improvement of the recognition time is directly correlated to the performance of the management function of the business process. However, the current monitoring process of business activities decides whether to apply warnings or not by assuming a fixed environment and showing expressions based on the design rules. Also, warnings are applied by carrying out the measuring process when the event attribute values are inserted at every point. Therefore, there is a limit for distinguishing the range of occurrence and the level of severity in regard to the new external problems occurring in a complicated environment. Such problems cannot be ed. Also, since it is difficult to expand the range of problems which can be possibly evaluated, it is impossible to evaluate any unexpected situation which could occur in the execution period. In this paper, a process-evaluating model based on the goal scenario is suggested to provide constant services through the current monitoring process in regard to the service demands of the new scenario which occurs outside. The new demands based on the outside situation are analyzed according to the goal scenario for the process activities. Also, by using the meta-heuristic algorithm, a similar process model is found and identified by combining similarity and interrelationship. The process can be stopped in advance or adjusted to the wanted direction.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.496-506
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• 2014

In this paper the scenario based optimization of the bulbous bow of the KRISO Container Ship (KCS) is presented. The optimization of the parametrically modeled vessel is based on a statistically developed operational profile generated from noon-to-noon reports of a comparable 3600 TEU container vessel and specific development functions representing the growth of global economy during the vessels service time. In order to consider uncertainties, statistical fluctuations are added. An analysis of these data lead to a number of most probable upcoming operating conditions (OC) the vessel will stay in the future. According to their respective likeliness an objective function for the evaluation of the optimal design variant of the vessel is derived and implemented within the parametrical optimization workbench FRIENDSHIP Framework. In the following this evaluation is done with respect to vessel's calculated effective power based on the usage of potential flow code. The evaluation shows, that the usage of scenarios within the optimization process has a strong influence on the hull form.

• Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.57-63
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• 2021

This study examined the effects of scenario-based education for patients with difficulty urination on nelaton knowledge, nelaton confidence, and nelaton catheterization skill ability of nursing college students. The data for this study were collected from May to June 2019, and were conducted for the third grade nursing students located in J city. A non-equivalent control group pretest-posttest design was used in 75 junior nursing college students subjects who were assigned to the experimental group 37 and the control group 38. The collected data was analyzed through the ��2-test, independent t-test and paired-test. There were significant differences in nelaton confidence(t=4.60, p<.001), nelaton catheterization skill ability(t=3.46, p=.001). But scenario-based education was found to be insignificant in the nelaton knowledge of nursing students. Difficulty urination scenario-based education can be used as an effective educational intervention to improve nelaton confidence and nelaton catheterization skill ability. However, in nelaton knowledge, it is necessary to verify the effectiveness of education through additional research.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.185-201
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• 2020

Scenario population projection reflects the high probability of future realization and ease of statistical interpretation. Statistics Korea (2019) also presents the results of 30 combinations, including special scenarios, as official statistics. However, deterministic population projections provide limited information about future uncertainties with several limitations that are not probabilistic. The deterministic population projections are scenario-based estimates and show a perfect autocorrelation of three factors (birth, death, movement) of population variation over time. Therefore, international organizations UN, the Max Planck Population Research Institute (MPIDR) of Germany and the Vienna Population Research Institute (VID) of Austria have suggested stochastic based population estimates. In addition, some National Statistics Offices have also adopted this method to provide information along with the scenario results. This paper calculates the demographics of Korea based on a probabilistic or stochastic basis and then draws the pros and cons and show implications of the scenario (deterministic) population projections.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.108-120
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• 2003

In assessing the long term post closure radiological safety assessment of a potential HLW repository in Korea, three categories of uncertainties exist. The first one is the scenario uncertainty where series of different natural events are translated into written statements. The second one is the modeling uncertatinty where different mathematical models are applied for an identical scenario. The last one is the data uncertainty which can be expressed in terms of probabilistic density functions. In this analysis, three different scenarios are seleceted; a small well scenario, a radiolysis scenario, and a naturally discharged scenario. The MASCOT-K and the AMBER, probabilistic safety assessment codes based on connection of sub-modules and a compartment theory respectively, are applied to assess annual individual doses for a generic biosphere. Results illustrate that for a given scenario, predictions from two different codes fairly match well each other But the discrepancies for the different scenarios are significant. However, total doses are still well below the guideline of 2 mRem/yr. Detailed analyses with model and data uncertainties are underway to further assure the safety of a Korean reference dispsoal concept.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.367-374
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• 2016

In this study, the RDII impact on sewer designing in the upstream monitoring area (A site) was considered. Based on the long-term (1/1/2011~12/31/2011) rainfall and flow data consisting of 10-min interval sampling in the nearby design area (B site), the maximum RDII/DWF ratio was selected. The sewer network system at B site was evaluated by the Manning equation. Scenario 1 considering the hourly maximum flow with respect to the flow velocity showed that none of the sewer pipes satisfied the minimum flow velocity condition (0.6 m/s), and 40 pipes did not achieve half of the velocity condition. In scenario 2 considering I/I, 1 the pipes satisfied 0.6 m/s, and 35 pipes showed 0.3 m/s. Scenario 3 reflected the effect of RDII. Velocities in 26 pipes were less than 0.3 m/s, and 4 pipes satisfied the velocity condition. With respect to the allowance rate, 17 pipes were shown to have more than 99%, and none of the pipes satisfied less than 95% of the allowance rate in scenario 1. In scenario 2, 17 Ed: Per the Table pipes showed more than 99% and one pipe showed less than 95%. In scenario 3, 16 pipes showed more than 99% of the allowance rate, and 19 pipes showed less than 95%. Based on these results, it is predicted that deposition would occur due to the slow flow velocity; however, capacity would not be a problem.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2007.02a
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• pp.148-151
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• 2007

The Korea Meteorological Administration has been operating a tsunami warning system which is based on tsunami scenario database for the East Sea. Recently, the tsunami scenario database for the Yellow sea and the East China sea is also generated so that the tsunami warning system is extended to the whole Korean seas. Tsunami scenario database includes tsunami arrival times and heights generated by performing huge numbers of tsunami propagation simulations. A leap-frog method for shallow water equation is used for the simulation. The simulation code is parallellized via Message Passing Interface and has run on Cray X1E.