• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.1871-1885
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• 2013

In this study, spatio-temporal distribution of future drought in South Korea was predicted by using the meteorological data generated from GCMs on which a variety of climate changing scenarios are applied. Drought phenomena was quantitatively analyzed using SPI(Standardized Precipitation Index). In addition, potential drought hazard maps for different drought duration and return period were made for the South Koreaby drought frequency analysis after deriving SDF(Severity-Duration-Frequency) curves using the 54 weather stations throughout the country. From the potential drought hazard maps, drought is expected to be severer in Nakdong River basin and Seomjin River basin under A2 scenario. It was also predicted that drought would be severe in the Han River basin by RCP8.5 scenario. In the future, potential drought hazard area would be expanded until the Eastern part of Nakdong River basin as compared with that of past under A2 scenario condition. Research results indicated that future drought would be extensively occurred all areas of South Korea not limiting in the southern part of country.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2010.02a
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• pp.10-15
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• 2010

The performance analysis of water systems is very important to urban disaster mitigation. It will benefit the task of preparedness and emergency response through a more practical and more quantitative approach. In this research work, an overview of hydraulics of water system has been provided. A methodology for such implementation based on scenario simulation and hydraulic analysis has been developed. The water system of Taipei Water Department was selected as a test bed for case study. Its serviceability following a major earthquake around Taipei metropolitan area has been quantified.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.33-45
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• 2019

Compound disaster is the type that increases the impact affected by two or more hazard events, and attention to compound disaster and multi-hazards risk is growing due to potential damages which are difficult to predict. The objective of this study is to analyze the possible impacts of post-fire landslide scenario quantitatively by using TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis), a physics-based landslide model. In the case of wildfire, soil organic material and density are altered, and saturated hydraulic conductivity decrease because of soil exposed to high temperature. We have included the change of soil saturated hydraulic conductivity into the TRIGRS model through literature review. For a case study, we selected the area of $8km^2$ in Pyeongchang County. The landslide modeling process was calibrated before simulate the post-wildfire impact based on landslide inventory data to reduce uncertainty. As a result, the mean of the total factor of safety values in the case of landslide was 2.641 when rainfall duration is 1 hour with rainfall intensity of 100mm per day, while the mean value for the case of post-wildfire landslide was lower to 2.579, showing potential landslide occurrence areas appear more quickly in the compound disaster scenario. This study can be used to prevent potential losses caused by the compound disaster such as post-wildfire debris flow or landslides.

• Journal of Engineering Education Research
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.23-37
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• 2022

This study evaluated the engineering students' ethical sensitivity to an AI emotion recognition robot scenario and explored its characteristics. For data collection, 54 students (27 majoring in Convergence Electronic Engineering and 27 majoring in Computer Software) were asked to list five factors regarding the AI robot scenario. For the analysis of ethical sensitivity, it was checked whether the students acknowledged the AI ethical principles in the AI robot scenario, such as safety, controllability, fairness, accountability, and transparency. We also categorized students' levels as either informed or naive based on whether or not they infer specific situations and diverse outcomes and feel a responsibility to take action as engineers. As a result, 40.0% of students' responses contained the AI ethical principles. These include safety 57.1%, controllability 10.7%, fairness 20.5%, accountability 11.6%, and transparency 0.0%. More students demonstrated ethical sensitivity at a naive level (76.8%) rather than at the informed level (23.2%). This study has implications for presenting an ethical sensitivity evaluation tool that can be utilized professionally in educational fields and applying it to engineering students to illustrate specific cases with varying levels of ethical sensitivity.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.29-35
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• 2011

This research proposes the suitable method for estimating the future probable rainfall based in 2100 on the observed rainfall data from main climate observation stations in Korea and the rainfall data from the A1B climate change scenario in the Korea Meteorological Administration. For all those, the frequency probable rainfall in 2100 was estimated by the relationship between average values of 24-hours annual maximum rainfalls and related parameters. Three methods to estimate it were introduced; First one is the regressive analysis method by parameters of probable distribution estimated by observed rainfall data. In the second method, parameters of probable distribution were estimated with the observed rainfall data. Also the rainfall data till 2100 were estimated by the A1B scenario of the Korea Meteorological Administration. Last method was that parameters of probable distribution and probable rainfall were estimated by the A1B scenario of the Korea Meteorological Administration. The estimated probable rainfall by the A1B scenario was smaller than the observed rainfall data, so it is required that the estimated probable rainfall was calibrated by the quantile mapping method. After that calibration, estimated probable rainfall data was averagely became approximate 2.3 to 3.0 times. When future probable rainfall was the estimated by only observed rainfall, estimated probable rainfall was overestimated. When future probable rainfall was estimated by the A1B scenario, although it was estimated by similar pattern with observed rainfall data, it frequently does not consider the regional characteristics. Comparing with average increased rate of 24-hours annual maximum rainfall and increased rate of probable rainfall estimated by three methods, optimal method of estimated future probable rainfall would be selected for considering climate change.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.37 no.12
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• pp.7-23
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• 2021

Underground utility tunnels, which contribute to supply of electricity, communication, water and heat, are critical lifelines of an urban area. In case service is discontinued or functional disruption happens, there will be a huge socio-economic impact. For the improved seismic design and evaluation of underground structures, this study proposes a ground displacement measure when the site is subjected to a scenario earthquake based on hazard-consistent source spectra and site amplification/attenuation. This measure provides a rational estimation of ground displacement and can be an alternative to existing response displacement methods.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.32 no.5
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• pp.168-178
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• 2017

In order to prevent major and chemical accidents, some of the plants which would like to install and operate hazard chemicals handling facilities must submit Off-site Consequence Analysis due to recent arisen leak accidents since 2015. A lot of chemical industrials choose gas detectors as mitigation equipment to early detect gas vapor. The way of placement of gas detectors has two methods; Code-based Design(CBD) and Performance-based Design. The CBD has principles for gas detectors to be installed with consideration for the place that is expected to accumulate gas, and the leak locations according to legal standards and technical guidelines, and has a possibility to be unable to detect by these rules to locate gas detectors by vapor density information. The PBD has two methods; a Geographic Method and Scenario based Method. The Scenario-based Method has been suggested to make up for the Geographic Coverage Method. This Scenario-based Method draw the best optimum placement of gas detectors by considering leak locations, leak speed information, leak directions and etc. However, the domestic placement guidelines just refers to the CBD. Therefore, this study is to compare existing placement location of gas detectors by the domestic CBD with placement locations, coverages and the number of gas detectors in accordance with the Scenario-based Method. Also this study has measures for early detecting interest of Vapor Cloud and suitable placement of gas detectors to prevent chemical accidents. The Phast software was selected to simulate vapor cloud dispersion to predict the consequence. There are two cases; an accident hole size of leak(8 mm) from API which is the highst accident hole size less than 24.5 mm, and a normal leak hole size from KOSHA Guide (1.8 mm). Detect3D was also selected to locate gas detectors efficiently and compare CBD results and PBD results. Currently, domestic methods of gas detectors do not consider any risk, but just depend on domestic code methods which lead to placement of gas detectors not to make personnels recognize tolerable or intolerable risks. The results of the Scenario-based Method, however, analyze the leak estimated range by simulating leak dispersion, and then it is able to tell tolerable risks. Thus it is considered that individuals will be able to place gas detectors reasonably by making objectives and roles flexibly according to situations in a specific plant.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.659-677
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• 2022

Hydrogen is emerging as a next-generation energy source and development and supply of FCEV (hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicle) is expected to occur rapidly. Accordingly, measures to respond to hydrogen car accidents are required and researches on the safety of hydrogen cars are being actively conducted. In this study, In this study, we developed a hydrogen car accident scenarios suitable for domestic conditions for the safety evaluation of hydrogen car in road tunnels through analysis of existing experiments and research data and analyzed and presented the hazard distance according to the accident results of the hydrogen car accident scenarios. The accident results according to the hydrogen car accident scenario were classified into minor accidents, general fires, jet flames and explosions. The probability of occurrence of each accident results are predicted to be 93.06%, 1.83%, 2.25%, and 2.31%. In the case of applying the hydrogen tank specifications of FCEV developed in Korea, the hazard distance for explosion pressure (based on 16.5 kPa) is about 17.6 m, about 6 m for jet fire, up to 35 m for fireball in road tunnel with a standard cross section (72 m²).

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.47 no.4
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• pp.963-978
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• 2020

Earthquakes can induce a large number of landslides and cause very serious property damage and human casualties. There are two issues in study on earthquake-induced landslides: (1) slope stability analysis under seismic loading and (2) debris flow run-out analysis. This study aims to review technical studies related to the development and application of earthquake-induced landslide models (seismic slope stability analysis). Moreover, a pilot application of a physics-based slope stability model to Mt. Umyeon, in Seoul, with several earthquake scenarios was conducted to test regional scale seismic landslide mapping. The earthquake-induced landslide simulation model can be categorized into 1) Pseudo-static model, 2) Newmark's dynamic displacement model and 3) stress-strain model. The Pseudo-static model is preferred for producing seismic landslide hazard maps because it is impossible to verify the dynamic model-based simulation results due to lack of earthquake-induced landslide inventory in Korea. Earthquake scenario-based simulation results show that given dry conditions, unstable slopes begin to occur in parts of upper areas due to the 50-year earthquake magnitude; most of the study area becomes unstable when the earthquake frequency is 200 years. On the other hand, when the soil is in a wet state due to heavy rainfall, many areas are unstable even if no earthquake occurs, and when rainfall and 50-year earthquakes occur simultaneously, most areas appear unstable, as in simulation results based on 100-year earthquakes in dry condition.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.61-73
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• 2003

Most of the accidents occurred from the chemical plants are related to the catastrophic gas release events when the large amount of toxic materials is leaked from its storage tank or transmitting pipe lines. In this case, the greatest concerns are how the spreading behaviors of leakages are depended on the ambient conditions such as air stability and other environmental factors. Hence, we have focused on the risk assessments and consequential analysis for chlorine as an illustrative example. As appeared in the result, Fire & Explosion Index depicted it a bit dangerous with presenting the comprehensive degrees of hazard 90.7. And as a result of Phast6.0/ALOHA, the trends of each scenario appeared considerably identical although there are some differences in the resulting effects according to the input data for the Gas Model. The consequence analysis is performed numerically based on the dense gas mode. In the future, using more correct input data, material properties, and topographical configuration, the method of this research will be useful for the guideline of the risk assessment when the release of toxicants breaks out.