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http://dx.doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2011.11.3.029

Estimation of Regional Probable Rainfall based on Climate Change Scenarios  

Kim, Young-Ho (석탑엔지니어링)
Yeo, Chang-Geon (홍익대학교 과학기술연구소)
Seo, Geun-Soon (석탑엔지니어링)
Song, Jai-Woo (홍익대학교 토목공학과)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation / v.11, no.3, 2011 , pp. 29-35 More about this Journal
Abstract
This research proposes the suitable method for estimating the future probable rainfall based in 2100 on the observed rainfall data from main climate observation stations in Korea and the rainfall data from the A1B climate change scenario in the Korea Meteorological Administration. For all those, the frequency probable rainfall in 2100 was estimated by the relationship between average values of 24-hours annual maximum rainfalls and related parameters. Three methods to estimate it were introduced; First one is the regressive analysis method by parameters of probable distribution estimated by observed rainfall data. In the second method, parameters of probable distribution were estimated with the observed rainfall data. Also the rainfall data till 2100 were estimated by the A1B scenario of the Korea Meteorological Administration. Last method was that parameters of probable distribution and probable rainfall were estimated by the A1B scenario of the Korea Meteorological Administration. The estimated probable rainfall by the A1B scenario was smaller than the observed rainfall data, so it is required that the estimated probable rainfall was calibrated by the quantile mapping method. After that calibration, estimated probable rainfall data was averagely became approximate 2.3 to 3.0 times. When future probable rainfall was the estimated by only observed rainfall, estimated probable rainfall was overestimated. When future probable rainfall was estimated by the A1B scenario, although it was estimated by similar pattern with observed rainfall data, it frequently does not consider the regional characteristics. Comparing with average increased rate of 24-hours annual maximum rainfall and increased rate of probable rainfall estimated by three methods, optimal method of estimated future probable rainfall would be selected for considering climate change.
Keywords
Climate change; Rainfall; Probable rainfall; Climate change scenarios; Quantile mapping;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
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