• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.230-238
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• 2009

We study about small gas engine and fuel cell CHP (Combined Heat and Power) as the technologies for energy conservation and $CO_2$ emissions reduction. Korea government plans to use them in near future. This study quantitatively analyzed energy consumption and $CO_2$ emissions reduction potential of small CHP instead of existing electric power plant (coal steam, combined cycle and oil steam) using LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system) as energy-economic model. Three future scenarios are discussed. In every scenario similar condition for each CHP is used. Alternative scenario I: about 6.34% reduction in $CO_2$ emissions is observed in 2019 due to increase in amount of gas engine CHP and fuel cell CHP while coal use in thermoelectric power plant is almost stagnant. In alternative scenario II: a small 0.8% increase in $CO_2$ emission is observed in 2019 keeping conditions similar to alternative scenario I but using natural gas in combined cycle power plant instead of coal. During alternative scenario II overall $CO_2$ emission reduction is observed in 2019 due to added heat production from CHP. Alternative scenario III: about 0.8% reduction in $CO_2$ emissions is observed in 2019 using similar CHP as AS I and AS II. Here coal and oil are used in thermoelectric power plant but the quantity of oil and coal is almost constant for next decade.

• Journal of Family Resource Management and Policy Review
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.1-12
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• 2023

This study forecasts the outlook 10 years from now regarding domestic labor and caregiving by the Baby Boomer generation and the preparations needed in the context of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The scenario-planning method was used to explore changing trends in domestic labor and caregiving, the rationale for which has been questioned by both seniors and family welfare experts. Based on the results of the survey and our researchers' opinions, it was concluded that the changing trends were caused by two factors: the probability of alterations in domestic labor and the strength of family relationships. On the basis of these conclusions, four scenarios regarding baby boomers' domestic labor and caregiving in 10 years were proposed using two axes: the "high and low probability of alterations" and the "strengthening and weakening of family relationships." The first scenario is a "preference for the self-caring form of family," which has a high probability of domestic labor alterations and weak family relationships. The second scenario is a "preference for the flexible form of family," which has a high probability of domestic labor alterations and strong family relationships. The third scenario is a "preference for the traditional form of family," which has a low probability of domestic labor alterations and strong family relationships. The fourth scenario is a "preference for the public caregiving form of family," which has a low probability of domestic labor alterations and weak family relationships. These results provide basic information about the various aspects of baby boomers' lives-including the development of various goods and services, the establishment of policies regarding seniors, and programs for successful aging-and can help equip our society to take the actions needed for a super-aged population.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.52 no.12
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• pp.1067-1074
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• 2019

In Korea, there are long-term rainfall observation data using Cheugugi, but it is relatively insufficient to use the data for water resources planning and management. In this study, river runoff is estimated based on the measurement data using Cheugugi so that it can be used as a scenario for the water resources planning process. After deriving the relationship between rainfall and runoff, the results are applied to the observations of Cheugugi to estimate the Han River runoff. An analysis of the estimated river runoff is made to confirm that there is a very severe drought for three consecutive years from 1900 to 1902. Especially, it is analyzed that there is a very small runoff in 1901, which is 8.6% compared to the average of estimated runoff. Consequently, it is judged that the results of this study can be useful as a scenario for water resources planning or drought response planning.

• Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.33-36
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• 2017

China is suffering from severe air pollution especially fine $PM_{2.5}$ pollution. In 2015, the annual average $PM_{2.5}$ concentration of the 338 municipal cities was $50{\mu}g/m^3$, 78% cities at or above the prefectural level failed to comply with the $PM_{2.5}$ concentration standards. The $13^{th}$ Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development set the goal that the annual average concentration of $PM_{2.5}$ in the municipal cities which failed to attain the ambient air quality standards shall be decreased by 18% by 2020 (CCCPC, 2016). In this study, an air pollution control scenario during the $13^{th}$ Five-Year Plan period was proposed and the $SO_2$, $NO_x$ and PM emission reductions in response to different measures in 31 provincial-level regions mainland China by 2020 were estimated. The air quality in the target year (2020) was simulated using the WRF-CMAQ model. The results showed that by 2020, the emissions of $SO_2$, $NO_x$ and primary PM in mainland China will be reduced by 4.19 million tons, 3.94 million tons and 4.41 million tons, a drop of 23%, 21% and 25% respectively compared with that in 2015, and the annual average concentration of $PM_{2.5}$ will decrease by 19%. Coal-fired power plant contributes the most pollutant emission reduction.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.433-440
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• 2014

In this study, a method for the low-carbon active distribution system (ADS) planning is proposed. It takes into account the impacts of both network capacity and demand correlation to the renewable energy accommodation, and incorporates demand response (DR) as an available resource in the ADS planning. The problem is formulated as a mixed integer nonlinear programming model, whereby the optimal allocation of renewable energy sources and the design of DR contract (i.e. payment incentives and default penalties) are determined simultaneously, in order to achieve the minimization of total cost and $CO_2$ emissions subjected to the system constraints. The uncertainties that involved are also considered by using the scenario synthesis method with the improved Taguchi's orthogonal array testing for reducing information redundancy. A novel cuckoo search (CS) is applied for the planning optimization. The case study results confirm the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method.

• Information Systems Review
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.23-44
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• 2009

U-Services are inevitably essential for the realization of u-Cities. Most local governments in Korea have expressed much interest in introducing u-Cites and related u-Services. Since researchers anticipate that developing u-Cities will produce economic effects, the Korea government has support local governments to develop u-Cities and necessary u-Services. However, the technology issues have been dominiated in the field of U-City services and most of the U-City services do not reflects all the complicated and pluralistic sides of environment, which are caused by future uncertainties in developing u-Cites. For the purpose of addressing the above uncertainties, this paper attempts to develop the possible scenarios for U-City services through a scenario planning approach. A focus group interview and survey with professionals in the field of planning u-Cities was performed to identify these uncertainties. Then, in order to investigate the validity of the scenario planning methodology, the u-Service "u-Water purity monitoring" is adopted. After considering the relevant issues, we developed two possible scenarios: a mutual linkage service among u-Service related organization and a cooperating and coordinating service among local governments. On the basis of these scenarios, the strategies for potential U-City services are formulated. Various participants in developing U -City services are encouraged to use the scenarios as the foundation of predicting future features of u-Cities and developing the framework of the U-City service scenarios effectively.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.356-366
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• 2007

In this paper a methodology is developed to prioritize replacement of water distribution pipes according to the economical efficiency of replacement and assess the long-term effects of water main replacement policies on water distribution systems. The methodology is implemented with MATLAB to develop a computer algorithm which is used to apply the methodology to a case study water distribution system. A pipe break prediction model is used to estimate future costs of pipe repair and replacement, and the economically optimal replacement time of a pipe is estimated by obtaining the time at which the present worth of the total costs of repair and replacement is minimum. The equation for estimating the present worth of the total cost is modified to reflect the fact that a pipe can be replaced in between of failure events. The results of the analyses show that about 9.5% of the pipes in the case study system is required to be replaced within the planning horizon. Analyses of the yearly pipe replacement requirements for the case study system are provided along with the compositions of the replacement. The effects of water main replacement policies, for which yearly replacement length scenario and yearly replacement budget scenario are used, during a planning horizon are simulated in terms of the predicted number of pipe failures and the saved repair costs.

• Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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• v.28 no.6
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• pp.699-711
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• 2014

This study was carried out to analyze water suspension in the water supply system through fault tree analysis. And quantitative factors was evaluated to minimize water suspension. Consequently the aim of this study is to build optimal planning by analyzing scenarios for water suspension. Accordingly the fault tree model makes it possible to estimate risks for water suspension, current risks is $92.23m^3/day$. The result of scenario analysis by pipe replacement, risks for water suspension was reduced $7.02m^3/day$ when replacing WD4 pipe. As a result of scenario analysis by water district connections, the amount of risk reduction is maximized when it is connecting to network pipe of D Zone. Therefore, connecting to network pipe for D Zone would be optimal to reduce risk for water suspension.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.432-440
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• 2011

Operational Mode Summary/Mission Profile(OMS/MP) is a document to quantify the operational and maintenance requirements based on the future operational environments and its mission and How to Fight concept in the development of the weapon system. It is important as a key document for the RAM goal setting in the early phase of weapon system development. The paper presents a systematic and practical submarine OMS/MP model processes with a deep analysis of relevant case studies and current status domestic and abroad. Especially, it proposes the unique Scenario Planning and Switch on List techniques with real case studies which have recently performed. The paper will contribute not only the basis of improved requirements for the development of weapon system but also the sustainment of readiness with the enhancement of RAM and reduction of total life cycle cost.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2012.05a
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• pp.215-215
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• 2012

사회는 우리의 예상보다 빠르게 혹은 느리게 발전할 수 있고, 정부의 법령이나 규정은 때때로 수정되며, 대중의 선호도나 정서 등도 시시각각 변화한다. 이러한 불확실하고 변화가 많은 환경하에서 수자원기술자들은 시스템의 구축에 있어서 종종 딜레마에 직면하게 된다. 즉, 언제(when), 얼마만한(how big) 규모의 시스템을 구축해야 불투명한 미래에 충분히 대비할 수 있을까란 의문이 바로 그것이다. 시스템의 계획단계(planning stage)에서 시스템과 관련된 여러 가지 불확실성을 고려할 수 있는 가장 강력하면서 또한 직감적인 방법은 바로 여러 가지 미래에 대한 가상 시나리오(scenario)를 구성하여 그것에 대비하는 방법이다. 최근 들어 시나리오에 기반한 시스템 플래닝 기법이 수자원분야에서 주목을 받고 있다. 미래에 발생 가능한 여러 가지 시나리오를 고려하여 구축된 시스템은 그 자체로 유연성을 발휘하여 미래에 발생할 수 있는 (예측에 어긋난) 다양한 변화에도 큰 사회적인 혼란 없이 최소의 추가비용만으로도 본래의 역할을 수행해 나갈 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 최적화 기법을 시나리오 플래닝 기법 (scenario planning technique)과 접목하여 분산형 용수공급 시스템(decentralized water supply system)의 최적설계에 적용하였다. 대상지역은 미국의 대표적인 준사막지역의 하나인 애리조나주에 위치한 투산시의 통합 물공급시스템으로 향후 20년을 대비한 시스템의 최적화에 본 연구에서 제안된 기법을 적용하여, 그 결과를 정리하였다.