• Title/Summary/Keyword: Scenario options

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Preliminary Analysis on Decommissioning Strategies for Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station From Waste Management Perspective

  • Watanabe, Naoko;Yanagihara, Satoshi
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.297-306
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    • 2021
  • In this study, basic strategies for the decommissioning and site remediation of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) were investigated. Six scenarios were formulated based on two of the three decommissioning strategies of nuclear power plants defined by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA): immediate dismantling and deferred dismantling. A multicriteria decision analysis was performed to analyze the preferences of the options from the viewpoints of the timeframe to complete decommissioning, the resulting waste, the site usability, and the availability of the radioactive waste disposal route. The same six scenarios were applied to both the FDNPS and the nuclear power plants that ceased operation after a normal plant life cycle for comparison. For the FDNPS, the decommissioning project involved fuel debris retrieval, dismantling, and site remediation. The analysis results suggest that the balance between the amount of waste and the time to achieve the end state may be one of the most critical factors to consider when planning the decommissioning and site remediation of the FDNPS.

3D Content Design & Implementation of VR Horseback Riding Game

  • Park, HyungSoo;Kim, HoonKi;Seo, SiO
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.73-81
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    • 2019
  • Various 3D contents are being developed using Unity 3D game engine. In this paper, the 3D content of horseback riding game, the first VR game in the country, is designed and developed. The existing riding simulator is investigated and compared to the VR riding game developed. We consider various games developed using Unity 3D game engine and serve previously developed tangible games. It is expected that development of VR riding games will prepare a new chapter in VR experience-type games. We propose the content development environment and scenario of VR riding game and present the main algorithms and main modules for real-time synchronization. The developed riding game contents are deployed to the riding system and are operated for commercial use in conjunction with the riding device. Through monitoring VR riding system, problems are derived and improvement measures are proposed. We offer a variety of additional development options to make the game more realistic in the future.

Application of CBM-CFS3 Model to Assess Carbon Stock and Age Class Changes Over Long Term Forest Planning in a Korea's National Forest (산림탄소축적을 고려한 국유림 장기경영계획 수립을 위한 CBM-CFS3 모델의 적용)

  • Jang, Kwangmin;Won, Hyun-Kyu;Kim, Young-Hwan;Tak, Kwang-IL;Shin, Man Yong;Lee, Kyeonghak
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.100 no.4
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    • pp.591-597
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    • 2011
  • Forest carbon stock changes in a national forest were assessed by CBM-CFS3 model with different management scenarios to support decision making for a long term forest planning. Management scenarios were composed with 4 different levels of timber harvesting - current harvesting level (scenario1), 30% increment in each period (scenario2), 3 times increment (scenario3), and 5 times increment (scenario4). For each scenarios, changes in total carbon stocks, carbon stocks of each carbon pools, carbon stocks of harvested wood products (HWP) and age class structure were estimated over 100-year planning horizon. The estimated total carbon stock including HWP at the end of final period (100 years) was 433.1 tC/ha under scenario 1, but the age class structure has skewed right to the upper classes, which is not desirable for sustainable forest management. Under the scenario 4, however, the total carbon stock decrease to 385.5 tC/ha and the area of old growth forest show a significant decline. The estimated total carbon stock under scenario 2 and 3 were 411.7 tC/ha and 410.5 tC/ha respectively, and it was able to maintain the initial level of the forest carbon stocks during the planning horizon. Also the age class structures under the scenario 2 and 3 were evenly distributed from class 1 to class 8. Overall, scenario 2 and 3 were the most acceptable forest management options, in terms of carbon stock changes and age class structure.

Economic Assessment for Flood Control Infrastructure under Climate Change : A Case Study of Imjin River Basin (기후변화를 고려한 홍수방재시설물의 경제성분석 : 임진강 유역사례)

  • Kim, Kyeongseok;Oh, Seungik
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.81-90
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    • 2017
  • In Imjin River basin, three floods occurred between 1996 and 1999, causing many casualties and economic losses of 900 billion won. In Korea, flood damage is expected to increase in the future due to climate change. This study used the climate scenarios to estimate future flood damage costs and suggested a real options-based economic assessment method. Using proposed method, the flood control infrastructures in Imjin River basin were selected as a case study site to analyze the economic feasibility of the investment. Using RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) climate scenarios, the future flood damage costs were estimated through simulated rainfall data. This study analyzed the flood reduction benefits through investment in the flood control infrastructures. The volatility of flood damage reduction benefits were estimated assuming that the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 climate scenarios would be realized in the future. In 2071, the project option value would be determined by applying an extension option to invest in an upgrading that would allow the project to adapt to the flood of the 200-year return period. The results of the option values show that the two investment scenarios are economically feasible and the project under RCP8.5 climate scenario has more flood damage reduction benefits than RCP4.5. This study will help government decision makers to consider the uncertainty of climate change in the economic assessment of flood control infrastructures using real options analysis. We also proposed a method to quantify climate risk factors into economic values by using rainfall data provided by climate scenarios.

Regional Distribution of Government-sponsored Research Institutes in Science & Technology (이공계 정부출연연구기관의 지방이전방안)

  • Chung Sun-Yang
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.8 no.spc1
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    • pp.410-432
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    • 2005
  • Korea's government-sponsored research institutes (GRIs) have contributed a lot to the economic development of Korea. They have become major components of the Korean national innovation system. However, in these days, they have been blamed for low productivity and inefficiency, as well as insufficient contribution to national development. This paper argues that the major problem of Korea's GRIs lies in their concentration in a few regions, e. g. Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Daedeok. It argues that they should be fairly distributed among regions in order to contribute to the development of Korea effectively. In this regard, this paper explores the relevant policy options to effectively distribute Korean GRIs among regions. It suggests two categories of distribution scenarios. The first category is based on the types of GRIs to be distributed. This category has three scenarios: existing GRIs, branch institutes of existing GRIs, and new GRIs. The second category is based on the jurisdiction of GRIs. It has also three scenarios: GRI system as an independent sector, GRI-university cooperation system, and integration of GRIs to regional universities. These scenarios have advantages and disadvantages, respectively. Therefore, we must find a rather satisfactory scenario based on the mixture of scenarios of both categories.

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Feasibility Study of Forestry Project in Sarawak State, Malaysia

  • Woo, Heesung;Turner, Paul;Kang, Byongrho;Jang, Jaeyoung;Woo, Jongchoon
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.352-358
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    • 2018
  • This research paper investigates available options for implementing clean development mechanism (CDM) project in Sarawak state, Malaysia. To investigate economic feasibility, data was collected using survey and field research methods. Also, economic analysis was estimated using net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR) and payback period (PBP) during the 30 years CDM: afforestation and reforestation periods. The result of economic analysis indicated that, the payback period was estimated at 9 years with 18 percent of internal rate of return (IRR). This study also highlighted that CDM biomass supply project have a lot of challenges due to the reduction and exclusion of bio-Solid Recovered Fuel (SRF), supply and demand scenario, and impact of restriction of illegal logging in Malaysia. This study results demonstrate the methodology and guideline for future CDM investment and projects.

An Integrated Modeling Approach for Predicting Potential Epidemics of Bacterial Blossom Blight in Kiwifruit under Climate Change

  • Kim, Kwang-Hyung;Koh, Young Jin
    • The Plant Pathology Journal
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.459-472
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    • 2019
  • The increasing variation in climatic conditions under climate change directly influences plant-microbe interactions. To account for as many variables as possible that may play critical roles in such interactions, the use of an integrated modeling approach is necessary. Here, we report for the first time a local impact assessment and adaptation study of future epidemics of kiwifruit bacterial blossom blight (KBB) in Jeonnam province, Korea, using an integrated modeling approach. This study included a series of models that integrated both the phenological responses of kiwifruit and the epidemiological responses of KBB to climatic factors with a 1 km resolution, under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario. Our results indicate that the area suitable for kiwifruit cultivation in Jeonnam province will increase and that the flowering date of kiwifruit will occur increasingly earlier, mainly due to the warming climate. Future epidemics of KBB during the predicted flowering periods were estimated using the Pss-KBB Risk Model over the predicted suitable cultivation regions, and we found location-specific, periodic outbreaks of KBB in the province through 2100. Here, we further suggest a potential, scientifically-informed, long-term adaptation strategy using a cultivar of kiwifruit with a different maturity period to relieve the pressures of future KBB risk. Our results clearly show one of the possible options for a local impact assessment and adaptation study using multiple models in an integrated way.

Alternative Strategies to Central Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning

  • Shrestha, Pramen P.;Prgada, Mythili
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2022.06a
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    • pp.401-407
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    • 2022
  • Central heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) is one of the largest consumers of energy in the residential sector. This project explores the use of multiple HVAC units and/or Zoning in a single residence to reduce energy loads. The energy consumption data of a detached single-family home using two HVAC units, one primary for the main house and a secondary HVAC for a casita, was collected for the same month for two consecutive years, along with details related to the outdoor temperature and the square footage being air-conditioned by each HVAC. A regression algorithm was trained using the above details to find the relation between the parameters. Next, based on the occupancy and usage patterns, the HVAC was redesigned assuming more area under the secondary HVAC unit. The trained algorithm was then used to make energy usage predictions for the revised primary HVAC area, with the assumption that the secondary HVAC unit was turned off. The results were compared with existing energy usage data. It was determined that there were significant energy savings in the second scenario. It is expected that this study and its findings will help future research projects explore more ideas as alternatives to central HVAC, in improving the economic viability of existing options, and in developing a savings calculation tool that will help consumers make informed decisions on their best alternatives to central HVAC.

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Endoscopic ultrasound-guided intervention for inaccessible papilla in advanced malignant hilar biliary obstruction

  • Partha Pal;Sundeep Lakhtakia
    • Clinical Endoscopy
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    • v.56 no.2
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    • pp.143-154
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    • 2023
  • Advanced malignant hilar biliary obstruction (MHBO) with inaccessible papilla poses a significant challenge to endoscopists, as drainage of multiple liver segments may be warranted. Transpapillary drainage may not be feasible in patients with surgically altered anatomy, duodenal stenosis, prior duodenal self-expanding metal stent, and after initial transpapillary drainage, but require re-intervention for draining separated liver segments. Endoscopic ultrasound-guided biliary drainage (EUS-BD) and percutaneous trans-hepatic biliary drainage are the feasible options in this scenario. The major advantages of EUS-BD over percutaneous trans-hepatic biliary drainage include a reduction in patient discomfort and internal drainage away from the tumor, thus reducing the possibility of tissue or tumor ingrowth. With innovations, EUS-BD is helpful not only for bilateral communicating MHBO but also for non-communicating systems with bridging hilar stents or isolated right intra-hepatic duct drainage by hepatico-duodenostomy. EUS-guided multi-stent drainage with specially designed cannulas and guidewires has become a reality. A combined approach with endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography for re-intervention, interventional radiology, and intraductal tumor ablative therapies has been reported. Stent migration and bile leakage can be minimized with proper stent selection and technique, and stent blocks can be managed with EUS-guided interventions in a majority of cases. Future comparative studies are required to establish the role of EUS-guided interventions in MHBO as rescue or primary therapy.

The Mechanism of the Influence of Advanced Selling on Consumer Choice (사전예약을 통한 구매결정이 소비자의 선택에 미치는 영향력의 작동원리에 관한 실증연구)

  • Kim, Kyung-Ho;Lee, Hyoung-Tark;Seo, Heon-Joo
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.81-87
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    • 2016
  • Purpose - In recent, a research finds that advanced selling can influence a consumer's choice(Kim et al., 2013). Advanced selling is defined as the new product launching strategy which company allows consumers to preorder new product before its release(Chu & Zhang, 2011). Prior researches have focused on the benefits of advanced selling(e.g., information gathering for demand prediction, an advantage for pricing strategy, and so on) for companies using this strategy(Chen, 2001; Chu & Zhang, 2011; Li & Zhang, 2013; Tang et al., 2004; Xie & Shugan, 2009). However, Kim et al.(2013) find it can also influence a consumer's choice. In detail, they suggest that when consumers use advanced selling, they are likely to prefer high-performance options rather than low-price options based on construal level theory(Trope & Liberman, 2003). In this paper, we tried to expand the prior researches for finding the mechanism of the influence of advanced selling on a consumer's choice. The purpose of this research is to test the mediating effect on the influence of advanced selling. Research design, data, and methodology - To find the mechanism of the influence of advanced selling, we designed an experiment for testing mediation effect. we recruited 93 students from a university. We assigned participants into one of two groups using randomization method. The participants with each group were given a scenario describing the sales strategy. Finally, they made a choice between high-performance option and low-price option. Sequentially, they also responded some questions for testing mediation effect. Results - First, we replicated prior research to test the influence of advanced selling. As a result, we could find that consumers prefer the high-performance option when they preorder it to purchase at the time of consumption. Thus, the replication result is the same as prior research. Second, we tested that advanced selling can influence the perception of temporal distance. The results confirmed that consumers perceived longer temporal distance in advanced selling condition(β = 1.575, SE = 0.272, p < 0.001). Third, we predicted that temporal distance can increase the importance of desirable attributes and decrease the importance of feasible attributes. The results suggested that temporal distance decreased significantly the importance of attributes related to feasibility(β = -0.19, SE = 0.07, p < 0.01), however, it had non-significant effect on increasing the importance of desirable attributes. Finally, we used Sobel-test for testing mediation effect, and it confirmed that the importance of feasible attributes had mediating role of the influence of advanced selling(Sobel test statistic = -2.110, SE = 0.111, p < 0.05). Conclusions - In this paper, we tried to find the mechanism of the influence on advanced selling from a consumer's choice. With an experiment, we confirmed that the importance of feasible attributes could mediate the effect on advanced selling. Therefore, we suggested some theoretical and practical contributions from this research. Finally, we discussed research limitations and suggested future research topics.