• 동아시아경상학회지
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.35-42
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• 2024

Purpose: A railroad project is a complex system with large construction costs in the initial stage and ongoing operating costs over its lifecycle. Current railroad projects tend to be based on construction options, which leads to huge deficiencies in operating costs. This phenomenon results from a lack of appropriate tools to accurately estimate a railroad project's lifecycle costs. This study attempts to analyze the major components of railroad operating costs and to propose a decision-making system for analyzing the long-term lifecycle costs of railroad projects. Research design, data and methodology: We review the literature and analyze the current status of railroad operating costs in Korea and overseas. Based on previous projects, a framework for project options and operating costs is proposed. The framework is applied to actual railroad projects to demonstrate the validity of the model. Results: Case analysis shows that our framework is comprehensive in analyzing the primary aspects of railroad operating costs and plays an effective role in choosing various railroad project options. This study points out that the railway project operates inefficiently because estimating long-term costs without reflecting specific project options causes many errors. Conclusions: A major contribution of this study is the development of an improved framework for accurately estimating operating costs and providing policymakers and engineering firms with a holistic decision support system. Detailed components in estimating operating costs of the railroad business are discussed. And we present a decision-making tool that policymakers and private businesses can use in planning the railroad business.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제55권10호
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• pp.3559-3570
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• 2023

In the decommissioning of nuclear facilities, Derived Concentration Guideline Level (DCGL) derivation is necessary for the release of the facility after the site remediation, which also needs to be implemented in the stage of establishing a decommissioning planning. In order to derive DCGL, the dose assessment for the receptors can be conducted from residual radioactivity by using RESRAD code. When performing sensitivity analysis on probabilistic parameters, secondary evaluation is performed by assigning a single value for parameters classified as sensitive. However, several options may arise in the handling of nonsensitive parameters. Therefore, we compared the results of the first execution of RESRAD applying probabilistic parameters for each scenario with the results of the second execution applying a single value to sensitive parameters among the probabilistic parameters. In addition, we analyzed the effect of setting options for non-sensitive parameters. As a result, the effect on DCGL were different depending on the application scenario, the target radionuclides, and the input parameter selections. In terms of the overall evaluation period, the DCGL graph of the default option was generally shown as the most conservative except for some radionuclides. However, it will not necessarily be given priority in the aspect of the need to reflect site characteristics. The reason for selecting a probabilistic parameter is the availability of the parameter and the uncertainty of applying a single value. Therefore, as an alternative, it can be consistently applied to distribution as an option for non-sensitive parameters after sensitivity analysis.

• 한국경영정보학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국경영정보학회 2008년도 춘계학술대회
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• pp.957-962
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• 2008

We propose a model for the line expansion problem in the AMOLED (Active Matrix Organic Light Emitting Diodes) industry, which now faces market uncertainty: for example, changing customer needs, technological development path, etc. We focus on the optimal investment time and size of the AMOLED production lines. In particular, employed here is the ROV (Real Options Valuation) model to show how to capture the value of line expansion and to determine the optimal investment time. The ROV framework provides a systematic procedure to quantify an expected outcome of a flexible decision which is not possible in the frame of the traditional NPV (Net Present Value) approach. Furthermore, we also use Monte Carlo simulation to measure the uncertainty associated with the line expansion decision; Monte Carlo simulation estimates the volatility of a decision alternative. Lastly, we present a scenario planning to be conducted for what-if analysis of the ROV model.

• 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.73-83
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• 2003

This paper presents armed vehicle BAttle Group Simulation model(called BAGSim) which is an object-oriented simulation system for representing battle group engagement consisting of tanks and helicopters. BAGSim is designed in the evolutionary software life cycle approach with the Unified Software Development Process, and implemented with C++ language. BAGSim consists of a preprocessor for engagement scenario definition and simulation data set up, a main processor for triggering engagement event and advancing simulation clock, and a post processor to record simulation histories. Application scenario covers several type of engagement among command tanks, fight tanks, scout helicopters, attack helicopters, anti-tank guided missiles, and decoys. Thus, BAGSim can be effectively used as an analytic tool to examine some operational concepts and tactics, further experimentally fine tune tank design options.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제18권8호
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• pp.113-125
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• 2020

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of interaction between product category (fresh vs. indulgent product) and shopping options (shipping charge and delivery time) on customer satisfaction and purchase intent in an e-commerce context. When ordering groceries online, consumers begin to allocate a larger share of their grocery budget toward product categories that generally contain healthier items at the expense of product categories that generally contain more indulgent products. Moreover, customers are extremely sensitive to shipping options such as shipping charges and delivery time. Therefore, this research investigates the issue at a more segmented level to focus on the impact that one dimension of logistics service quality - product category, shipping charge, and delivery time have on customer satisfaction and purchase intent. Research design, data, and methodology: To test the theoretically derived priori hypotheses concerning product category, shipping charges, delivery time, satisfaction, and purchase intent, this research presented a scenario-based experiment. Eight treatment groups were assigned by the method of product category (fresh produce vs. indulgent product), shipping charge (free vs. paid), and delivery time (one-day vs. two to three days). A total of 240 subjects were divided into groups and exposed to one of the eight scenarios. Participant's purchase intention was the dependent variable, and ANOVA and L-matrix were used to analyze for main and interactive effects between factors. Conclusions: Results indicated that in tests 1 and 2, free shipping and fast delivery time increased consumer satisfaction as well as purchase intent, and fast delivery moderated the impact of free shipping on consumer satisfaction and purchase intent. Test 3 showed that the effect of free shipping on consumer satisfaction and purchase intent moderated by fast delivery for indulgent products. In contrast, fast delivery for fresh products moderated the effect of paid shipping on consumer satisfaction and purchase intent. Consistent with this proposed mechanism, the relative importance of fresh produce versus indulgent products highlights the effect of shipping options on consumer satisfaction and purchase intent when ordering the target product in an e-commerce context. We conclude with a discussion of the theoretical and practical implications of our findings.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제22권6호
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• pp.87-95
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• 2021

본 연구는 새만금에 조성되는 환경생태용지사업의 실물옵션기법을 사용하여 경제성분석을 하였다. 30년 동안 운영하는 동안 수익에 영향을 주는 주요 요소들을 정의하였다. 수익의 변동성을 시나리오 분석방법으로 계산하여, 경영적 유연성을 적용할 수 있는 옵션 기반 분석방법을 제시하였다. 환경생태공원 경제성분석에 필요한 이용객수, 입장요금, 체험프로그램요금, 유지관리비용 등은 국내 유사한 환경생태공원의 사례를 분석하였다. 운영 중 포기할 수 있는 옵션권리를 가지는 것으로 가정하여 옵션가치를 계산하였다. B/C는 1미만의 값이 나오고, NPV는 음수로 나와 전통적인 경제성분석방법으로는 사업을 진행할 수가 없으나, 실물옵션분석으로 평가하면 사업의 가치가 상승하여 수익성을 확보할 수 있다. NPV(-466억원)과 옵션가치(281억원)의 가격차이 747억원의 가치상승이 발생하였다. 본 연구를 통해서 환경생태용지사업을 계획하려는 공공기관 및 민간사업자의 투자담당자는 본 연구에서 제시된 실물옵션기법을 활용하여 상황에 적절한 옵션을 선택하여 경제성분석을 할 수 있도록 도움을 줄 수 있을 것이다.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.199-216
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• 1998

An economic appraisal of a proposed marine ranching project is analysed using capital budgeting model such as net present value(NPV) and internal rate of return( IRR) as well as sensitivity analysis and goal seeking model. Of the factors for economic appraisal, direct benefits are to be determined by estimated harvest, prices and costs incurred by catching fishes, and indirect benefits include the additional economic effect of recreational fishing. And judging the worth of these project options depends upon the choice of discount rate of which 8.5% is recommended here. On the basis of estimated production, prices and costs the project is expected to yield NPV=615 million won and IRR=8.8%, which is quite accepted for an economic feasibility, under the first scenario, and NPV= -127 million won and IRR=7.93%, which is rejected, under the second scenario. Sensitivity analysis has been performed by calculating the switching value and sensitivity indicator in respect of the main project parameters. The results suggest that the project NPV and IRR are especially sensitive to fishes(rock fish and other rock fish) prices and fixed costs. Finally goal seeking analysis is carried out in order to reach a desired level of performance like NPV=0 in respect of the amount of hatchery-reared juverniles, the prices and the discount rate.

• 자원환경지질
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• 제49권4호
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• pp.301-314
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• 2016

국내에서 발생한 폐밀봉선원은 현재 한국원자력환경공단 폐기시설에 임시 보관 중에 있으며 향후 중 저준위 방사성 폐기물 처분시설에 처분될 예정이다. 본 연구에서는 폐밀봉선원의 최적 처분방안 수립에 앞서 폐밀봉선원 처분시 폐쇄후 예비안전성평가를 수행하였다. 폐밀봉선원이 표층처분시설 또는 동굴처분시설에 처분되는 것으로 가정하였으며, GoldSim 전산코드를 사용하여 결정집단의 개인 피폭선량을 계산하였다. 평가결과 정상 시나리오시 최대 피폭선량은 두 가지 처분방식에 대해 약 $1{\times}10^{-7}mSv/yr$으로 나타났으며 이는 규제치인 0.1 mSv/yr에 대비하여 장기적으로 충분한 안전성을 확보할 수 있는 것으로 판단된다. 우물시나리오 시 최대 피폭선량은 표층처분시설에서 규제치인 1 mSv/yr를 초과하였으며 이는 $^{226}Ra$, $^{210}Pb$($^{226}Ra$의 딸핵종) 및 $^{237}Np$($^{241}Am$의 딸핵종)에 기인한 것으로 확인되었다. 동굴처분시설의 경우, 모든 핵종의 최대 피폭선량이 법적 규제치를 만족하나 $^{14}C$ 및 $^{237}Np$($^{241}Am$의 딸핵종)에 의한 피폭선량이 규제치 대비 10%를 초과하는 상대적으로 높은 값을 나타내는 것으로 확인되었다. 처분시설 폐쇄후 주민의 피폭선량은 반드시 법적 규제치 이하로 유지되어야 하므로 규제치를 초과 또는 이에 근접한 피폭선량을 유발하는 핵종인 $^{14}C$, $^{226}Ra$ 및 $^{241}Am$를 각 처분방식에서 제한할 필요가 있으며 안전한 영구 처분을 위한 처분전 관리가 요구된다.

• 한국소음진동공학회논문집
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.370-377
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• 2009

A simple preliminary analysis is often useful to check a validity of design alternatives before the detailed analysis phase in the viewpoint of efficiency. This paper describes a preliminary analysis procedure for the selection among basket design candidates for the spent fuel shipping cask of Korean standard nuclear power plant. As the cask should maintain the structural integrity in hypothetical accident condition, the case of 9 m drop is significantly considered as the worst scenario among the accident conditions in structural design viewpoint in this paper. As basket design options, totally four different types are considered and analyzed in the point of structural integrity at drop impact and weldability for fabrication. As a result, an insertion round plate type with densely spaced supports turns out to be the best in both of the viewpoints, though the weld plate type shows a bit more design margin.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.143-152
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• 1997

Probabilistic Safety Assessment(PSA) is an engineering analysis of the possible contributors to the risk from a nuclear power plant. It consist of three phases named as Level 1, 2 and 3. Level 1 PSA mainly focused in this paper is the phase of system analysis which includes the development of accident scenarios and the frequency estimation of each scenario. It covers also the system reliability analysis, component data analysis, and human reliability analysis. PSA have become a standard tool in safety evaluation of nuclear power plants. The main benefit of PSA is to provide insights into plant design, performance and environmental impacts, including the identification of dominant risk contributors and the comparison of options for reducing risk.