• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.24-29
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• 2016

This paper elaborates the significance of scenario planning in risk management, and presents an integrated approach which takes into account the 'Risk Events' derived from scenario planning for risk prioritisation. This research integrates scenario planning with Risk Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (RFMEA) through examples from construction litigations of project schedule and cost overrun cases as a simplified approach to project risk management. The proposed methodology incorporates scenarios developed from realistic events of dispute and arbitration cases from construction projects, and thereby increasing potential to foresee risks and their effects well in advance. The results from this methodology shall be validated against outcome of survey study conducted by KPMG-PMI (2013) on project schedule and cost overruns that was based on Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) Project Monitoring data for 2012-13.

• 한국가스학회지
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.37-42
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• 2004

본 연구는 계절별 기후상태를 고려한 정성적 및 정량적 위험성 평가에 의해 최악의 시나리오와 가능성이 높은 시나리오를 설정하고, 비용-편익분석에 의해 시나리오별 안전관리비의 효율을 평가하였다. 그 결과, 최악의 시나리오는 비정상조업에서 유지보수 오류이었고, 가능성이 높은 시나리오는 HAZOP 구간 $\sharp$4에서 발생되는 가스 누출사고이었다. 또한 각 시나리오에서 전체 안전관리비에 대한 편익/비용과 효과적인 안전관리 항목을 평가할 수 있었다.

• 경영과학
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• 제33권1호
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• pp.59-75
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• 2016

The domestic simple payment service was not activated yet compared to foreign countries and there are many things to complement in the legal, institutional, and technical aspects. The future image of the domestic electronic payment propulsion was considered by the scenario planning focusing on the simple payment. Total 6 future scenarios were drawn through the scenario planning, and 3 major strategy directions for attaining the preferred future scenario were drawn. This study drew a meaningful scenario through various analyses and industry specialist questionnaire about the future of the simple payment service which will be a crucial change of the domestic electronic payment under the uncertain future situation, and suggested an implication for the government and every interested party who provides the industrial service to prepare for the future.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제42권4호
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• pp.591-606
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• 2014

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to design an experimental simulation model for evaluating the UGV(Unmanned Ground Vehicle) effectiveness in a small unit combat scenario. Methods: We design and build a simulation model to evaluate the combat effectiveness of UGV in a small unit combat scenario. In order to build a simulation model, we used AnyLogic software tool which has functional advantages to describe agent-based simulation model. As for the combat scenario, we applied the typical engagement of mechanized unit equal or lower than battalion level. Analysis process follows the three phases. 1) Design an agent based conceptual medel in a small unit combat scenario. 2) Build a simulation medel using AnyLogic tool. 3) Analyze the simulation results and evaluate the UGV effectiveness. Results: The UGV effectiveness was measured and presented as a numeric values. Those numeric values were represented as a MOE(Measure of Effectiveness) which was the blue survival ratio. Conclusion: We developed an agent based simulation model which can provide a pattern of change how UGV effectiveness varied depending upon the number of UGV in a small unit combat scenario. We also found that the UGV effectiveness grows in the given scenario as the number of UGV increases.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제12권8호
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• pp.101-112
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• 2014

본 연구에서는 한국의 제품 안전관리를 위한 시나리오 기반의 리스크 평가기법을 개발, 제시한다. 이를 위해 먼저 한국의 제품 안전관리를 위한 관련 규제정책을 살펴보고, 이 법의 시행을 위해 필요한 제품 리스크 평가기법을 일반상해의 경우와 유해물질의 경우로 구분하여 제시한다. 본 연구에서 제시되는 리스크 평가기법의 특징은 다음과 같다. (i) 제품의 사용 시 발생할 수 있는 부상 시나리오에 기반을 둔 방법이다. (ii) 시나리오 발생 확률과 인체에 미치는 부상 심각도를 바탕으로 리스크를 평가한다. (iii) 유해물질 함유 제품의 경우 유해물질의 인체에의 위해성 여부를 확인한 후 부상 심각도를 고려해서 리스크를 평가한다. 부상 시나리오의 확률을 결정하기 위하여 본 연구에서는 시나리오를 몇 가지 구성 요인으로 분해하고 이들 각각의 요인 확률을 추정하여 전체 시나리오의 확률을 결정한다. 본 연구에서 제시된 기법을 통하여 리스크 평가를 수행한 결과를 제시하고 이를 제품 안전관리를 위한 품목 분류에 활용할 수 있음을 보인다.

• 경영과학
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.129-147
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• 2004

Scenario analysis for strategic planning, unlike most forecasting methods, provides a qualitative, contextual description of how the present will evolve into the future. It normally tries to identify a set of possible futures, each of whose occurrence is plausible but not assured. In this paper, we propose the use of Cross Impact Analysis(CIA) approach for scenario generation about the future of Korean IT environments. In this analysis, we classified IT environments into technical, social, legislative, and economic factor. And various variables and events were defined in each factor. From the survey collected from IT related experts, we acquire probability of occurrence and compatibility estimates of every possible pairs of events as input. Then 2 phase analysis is used in order to choice events with high probability of occurrence and generate scenario. Finally, after CIA using Monte Carlo simulation, a detail scenario for 2010 was developed. These scenario drawn from the CIA approach is a result considered by cross impacts of various events.

• 한국농공학회지
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• 제45권7호
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• pp.38-48
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• 2003

Lake water quality assessment information is useful to anyone involved in lake management, from lake owners to lake associations. It provides lake water quality criteria, which can improve the ways how to manage out lake resources and how to measure current conditions. It also provides a knowledge base so that the lakes can be protected and restored. Here, the Freshwater Lake Water Quality Management System(FLAQUM) was developed. The results of FLAQUM application by scenario proved that pollutant load at rainfall by the nonpoint sources was much more than normal times at rainfall. From the result of Scenario I (pollutant source increase case), the concentrations of Boryeong freshwater lake were BOD 9.43mg/L, T-N 4.53 mg/L and T-P 0.21 mg/L, respectively, and those values exceed the standard of agricultural water. And in case of Scenario I and II(the present case) excluding Scenario III (pollutant source decrease case), all of T-N and T-P are either mesotrophication or eutrophication, on the other hand when 60% of pollution source is removed, the concentrations of Scenario III were BOD 3.21 mg/L, T-N 0.95 mg/L, T-P 0.11 mg/L, respectively, and which satisfies the standard of agricultural water quality.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제10권5호
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• pp.275-281
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• 2012

본 논문에서는 모바일 환경에서 LBS 성능을 보장하기 위한 모듈형 관리기를 제안한다. 제안된 시스템은 시나리오 관리 모듈, 이동성 관리 모듈, 그리고 통계 관리 모듈로 구성되어 있으며, 각각의 모듈은 시나리오 리스트에 따라 성능을 최적화하기 위하여 이동성을 제어한다. 그리고 통계 관리 모듈은 이동성 정보, 오류 해결, 그리고 여러 문제들을 기록하고 저장한다. 따라서 제안된 구현 시스템은 수작업을 통하여 시스템 성능을 체크하는 것에 비해서 관리 비용을 감소시키고, 관리 성능을 향상시키는 장점을 제공하게 된다.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 6th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.583-587
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• 2015

Scenario-based learning (SBL) has been used in a variety of training situations across different disciplines. Despite its seemly widespread use in construction management discipline, very few attempts have been made to explore its effectiveness and the respective students' learning experience. Using a survey research design, this study aims to investigate students' perceptions on SBL approach in construction management courses. The specific objectives are: (i) to identify the characteristics of a favourable SBL environment, and (ii) to explore the students' learning experience and effectiveness of the SBL approach. The results show that the four characteristics of a favourable SBL environment are: effective team formulation, constant engagement with lecturer, working in a group, and incorporation of motivational incentive for participation. The students really appreciated the opportunities to apply concepts learnt in the lectures in their SBL group work. Also, they perceived that the SBL approach is effective in developing their reflective and critical thinking skills, analytic and problem-solving skills and their ability to work as a team. These findings should facilitate more critical approaches to similar form of teaching methods.

• 터널과지하공간
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.275-286
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• 2009

해저터널을 굴착할 때 다양한 지반조건에서 발생하는 기술적인 위험에 대한 원인 규명과 조치를 수립하기 위해서는 예상되는 위험 시나리오를 구성하는 것이 중요하다. 또한, 위험 시나리오를 분류할 때 터널 굴착노선 전반에 걸쳐 발생되는 시나리오와 일부 구간에 국한하여 발생되는 시나리오를 함께 고려함으로써 프로젝트관리 측면에서 체계적이고 조직적인 대응을 할 수 있는 논리적인 틀을 제공할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 위험 시나리오에 대한 관리기법으로 프로젝트 위험 시나리오와 프로젝트 관리요소를 구성하고 파일럿 프로젝트를 선정하여 프로젝트 일정을 수립하였다. 특히 해저터널에서 예상되는 위험 시나리오를 일반 위험 시나리오와 특정 위험 시나리오로 분류하고 프로젝트 관리요소와 연계할 수 있는 개념을 도출하였다.