• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.24-29
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• 2016

This paper elaborates the significance of scenario planning in risk management, and presents an integrated approach which takes into account the 'Risk Events' derived from scenario planning for risk prioritisation. This research integrates scenario planning with Risk Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (RFMEA) through examples from construction litigations of project schedule and cost overrun cases as a simplified approach to project risk management. The proposed methodology incorporates scenarios developed from realistic events of dispute and arbitration cases from construction projects, and thereby increasing potential to foresee risks and their effects well in advance. The results from this methodology shall be validated against outcome of survey study conducted by KPMG-PMI (2013) on project schedule and cost overruns that was based on Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) Project Monitoring data for 2012-13.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.8 no.3 s.24
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• pp.37-42
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• 2004

This study established a catastrophic scenario and a likely scenario by qualitative and quantitative risk assessments to consider climate condition with season, and assessed efficiency of safety management cost with scenarios by cost-benefit analysis. As results, the catastrophic scenario was the maintenance error for unsteady state operation, and the likely scenario was the gas release accident at node $\sharp$4 of HAZOP Also, benefit/cost ratios for total safety management cost and effective items of safety management could be assessed at each scenario.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.59-75
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• 2016

The domestic simple payment service was not activated yet compared to foreign countries and there are many things to complement in the legal, institutional, and technical aspects. The future image of the domestic electronic payment propulsion was considered by the scenario planning focusing on the simple payment. Total 6 future scenarios were drawn through the scenario planning, and 3 major strategy directions for attaining the preferred future scenario were drawn. This study drew a meaningful scenario through various analyses and industry specialist questionnaire about the future of the simple payment service which will be a crucial change of the domestic electronic payment under the uncertain future situation, and suggested an implication for the government and every interested party who provides the industrial service to prepare for the future.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.42 no.4
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• pp.591-606
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• 2014

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to design an experimental simulation model for evaluating the UGV(Unmanned Ground Vehicle) effectiveness in a small unit combat scenario. Methods: We design and build a simulation model to evaluate the combat effectiveness of UGV in a small unit combat scenario. In order to build a simulation model, we used AnyLogic software tool which has functional advantages to describe agent-based simulation model. As for the combat scenario, we applied the typical engagement of mechanized unit equal or lower than battalion level. Analysis process follows the three phases. 1) Design an agent based conceptual medel in a small unit combat scenario. 2) Build a simulation medel using AnyLogic tool. 3) Analyze the simulation results and evaluate the UGV effectiveness. Results: The UGV effectiveness was measured and presented as a numeric values. Those numeric values were represented as a MOE(Measure of Effectiveness) which was the blue survival ratio. Conclusion: We developed an agent based simulation model which can provide a pattern of change how UGV effectiveness varied depending upon the number of UGV in a small unit combat scenario. We also found that the UGV effectiveness grows in the given scenario as the number of UGV increases.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.12 no.8
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• pp.101-112
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• 2014

In this study, a risk assessment method based on scenario for the product safety management in Korea has been developed and proposed. To this end, Korea's related regulations for product safety management should be analyzed first, and the risk assessment method necessary for the enforcement of the regulations is presented by itemizing the method into the case of general injury and toxic substances. The features of the method presented in this study are as follows: (i) It is a method based on the injury scenario which can occur during the use of product. (ii) It assesses a risk based on the probability of the scenario and the severity of injury. (iii) In the case of toxic substances, it assesses a risk considering the hazard of the toxic substances on the human body and the severity of injury. To determine the probability of the injury scenario, this study has decomposed the scenario into several configuration factors and estimates each factor's probability to calculate the whole scenario's probability. The results of risk assessment through the method of this study are presented and it is shown that the method can be applied to the product classification for the product safety management.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.129-147
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• 2004

Scenario analysis for strategic planning, unlike most forecasting methods, provides a qualitative, contextual description of how the present will evolve into the future. It normally tries to identify a set of possible futures, each of whose occurrence is plausible but not assured. In this paper, we propose the use of Cross Impact Analysis(CIA) approach for scenario generation about the future of Korean IT environments. In this analysis, we classified IT environments into technical, social, legislative, and economic factor. And various variables and events were defined in each factor. From the survey collected from IT related experts, we acquire probability of occurrence and compatibility estimates of every possible pairs of events as input. Then 2 phase analysis is used in order to choice events with high probability of occurrence and generate scenario. Finally, after CIA using Monte Carlo simulation, a detail scenario for 2010 was developed. These scenario drawn from the CIA approach is a result considered by cross impacts of various events.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.45 no.7
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• pp.38-48
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• 2003

Lake water quality assessment information is useful to anyone involved in lake management, from lake owners to lake associations. It provides lake water quality criteria, which can improve the ways how to manage out lake resources and how to measure current conditions. It also provides a knowledge base so that the lakes can be protected and restored. Here, the Freshwater Lake Water Quality Management System(FLAQUM) was developed. The results of FLAQUM application by scenario proved that pollutant load at rainfall by the nonpoint sources was much more than normal times at rainfall. From the result of Scenario I (pollutant source increase case), the concentrations of Boryeong freshwater lake were BOD 9.43mg/L, T-N 4.53 mg/L and T-P 0.21 mg/L, respectively, and those values exceed the standard of agricultural water. And in case of Scenario I and II(the present case) excluding Scenario III (pollutant source decrease case), all of T-N and T-P are either mesotrophication or eutrophication, on the other hand when 60% of pollution source is removed, the concentrations of Scenario III were BOD 3.21 mg/L, T-N 0.95 mg/L, T-P 0.11 mg/L, respectively, and which satisfies the standard of agricultural water quality.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.10 no.5
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• pp.275-281
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• 2012

This paper proposes a modular type manager which is implemented to guarantee performance for LBS automatically in the mobile environment. The proposed system consists of modules for the management of scenario, mobility, and statistics. Each module controls the mobility in order to optimize the performance according to the scenario list. The statistics management module records mobility information and quick solution of errors and problems. The implemented system reduced the management cost and improved the management performance by the automatic test which was tested manually before the development of the system.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2015.10a
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• pp.583-587
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• 2015

Scenario-based learning (SBL) has been used in a variety of training situations across different disciplines. Despite its seemly widespread use in construction management discipline, very few attempts have been made to explore its effectiveness and the respective students' learning experience. Using a survey research design, this study aims to investigate students' perceptions on SBL approach in construction management courses. The specific objectives are: (i) to identify the characteristics of a favourable SBL environment, and (ii) to explore the students' learning experience and effectiveness of the SBL approach. The results show that the four characteristics of a favourable SBL environment are: effective team formulation, constant engagement with lecturer, working in a group, and incorporation of motivational incentive for participation. The students really appreciated the opportunities to apply concepts learnt in the lectures in their SBL group work. Also, they perceived that the SBL approach is effective in developing their reflective and critical thinking skills, analytic and problem-solving skills and their ability to work as a team. These findings should facilitate more critical approaches to similar form of teaching methods.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.275-286
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• 2009

In order to establish the causes and measures for technical risks that occur in various ground conditions when a subsea tunnel is excavated, it is important to configure expected risk scenarios. In addition, when the risk scenarios are classified because the scenario that occurs along all tunnel route and the scenario limited to some area are considered together, a logical framework with systematic and organized responses can be provided for project managements. In this research, project risk scenarios and management elements were configurated, and the project schedule was established for the management techniques to the risk scenario. The risk scenarios expected in a subsea tunnel were classified into a common risk scenario and a special risk scenario, and the concept which can combine with the project management elements was derived.