• Title/Summary/Keyword: Scenario analysis

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Key Parameters Analysis of Important Radionuclides in Dose Evaluation Model of Decommissioning Site (해체 부지 선량평가모텔의 주요 핵종에 대한 Key parameter 분석)

  • 임용규;김학수;손중권;박경록;강기두;김경덕;정찬우
    • Proceedings of the Korean Radioactive Waste Society Conference
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    • 2004.06a
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    • pp.52-57
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    • 2004
  • In order to analyze key parameters of important radionuclides in dose evaluation model of decommissioning site, a sensitivity analysis was performed. This analysis assumed a resident farmer for an exposure scenario and 0.037Bq/g for the concentration of radionuclides. As a result of sensitivity analysis, the key parameters of radionuclides considered were the area of contaminated zone, external gamma shielding factor and indoor time fraction for Cs-137 and Co-60. The key parameters for C-14 were the environmental parameters and hydrological parameters of unsaturated zone. Also, the key parameter for Sr-90 was the density of contaminated zone.

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Preliminary Evaluation of a Proposed Marine Ranching Project in Korea (우리 나라 바다목장화 사업의 예비적 경제성 평가)

  • 표희동
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.199-216
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    • 1998
  • An economic appraisal of a proposed marine ranching project is analysed using capital budgeting model such as net present value(NPV) and internal rate of return( IRR) as well as sensitivity analysis and goal seeking model. Of the factors for economic appraisal, direct benefits are to be determined by estimated harvest, prices and costs incurred by catching fishes, and indirect benefits include the additional economic effect of recreational fishing. And judging the worth of these project options depends upon the choice of discount rate of which 8.5% is recommended here. On the basis of estimated production, prices and costs the project is expected to yield NPV=615 million won and IRR=8.8%, which is quite accepted for an economic feasibility, under the first scenario, and NPV= -127 million won and IRR=7.93%, which is rejected, under the second scenario. Sensitivity analysis has been performed by calculating the switching value and sensitivity indicator in respect of the main project parameters. The results suggest that the project NPV and IRR are especially sensitive to fishes(rock fish and other rock fish) prices and fixed costs. Finally goal seeking analysis is carried out in order to reach a desired level of performance like NPV=0 in respect of the amount of hatchery-reared juverniles, the prices and the discount rate.

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A study on optimal planning of risk reduction for water suspension in water pipe system using fault tree analysis (결함트리분석을 이용한 상수관망 단수 리스크 저감 최적 방안 연구)

  • Choi, Tae Ho;Kim, A Ri;Kim, Min Cheol;Koo, Ja Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.699-711
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    • 2014
  • This study was carried out to analyze water suspension in the water supply system through fault tree analysis. And quantitative factors was evaluated to minimize water suspension. Consequently the aim of this study is to build optimal planning by analyzing scenarios for water suspension. Accordingly the fault tree model makes it possible to estimate risks for water suspension, current risks is $92.23m^3/day$. The result of scenario analysis by pipe replacement, risks for water suspension was reduced $7.02m^3/day$ when replacing WD4 pipe. As a result of scenario analysis by water district connections, the amount of risk reduction is maximized when it is connecting to network pipe of D Zone. Therefore, connecting to network pipe for D Zone would be optimal to reduce risk for water suspension.

Application of Advanced Impact Analysis in Developing Iran's Gas Industry Scenarios

  • Servati, Yasser;Ghodsypour, Seyed Hassan;Soleimani, Mansooreh
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.307-317
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    • 2016
  • According to most of energy sector experts, at least in the next two decades, fossil energy plays important role in fulfilling required energy in the world. Based on these conditions, the investigation of the conditions of major countries providing natural gas in the world can be useful in analysis of future development of this clean fuel. According to the latest estimations of British Petroleum Company, Iran with 18.2% natural gas reservoirs has the first natural gas reservoirs in the world. The main purpose of this paper is developing scenarios of gas industry in Iran. To achieve the mentioned goals, besides investigation of existing methods of scenario design and existing production scenarios, natural gas export and consumption in Iran and the world in 2035, the most important scenarios of gas industry in Iran are formulated by critical uncertainty analysis approach using quantitative advanced time based impact analysis in 2035 horizon.

A Study of factor analysis on user-centered software concept design (사용자 중심의 소프트웨어 컨셉 개발에서 요소 분석에 관한 연구)

  • 김성곤
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society of Design Studies Conference
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    • 2000.11a
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    • pp.20-21
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    • 2000
  • 일부 소프트웨어들의 상품 가치의 판단은 과거 기능위주에서 사용자 중심의 디자인적 요소들 만족여부에 결정되어지고 있다. 그러나 많은 소프트웨어가 시스템 공학적 개발에 중점을 두고 개발되어지고 있고 사용자 및 사용자 환경을 분석을 통한 디자인적 개발에 중점을 두고 있지 않는 실정이다. (중략)

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Developing the On-line Game Industry's Changing Scenario and Establishing Business Strategy According to the Introduction of IPTV (IPTV 도입에 따른 온라인 게임 산업의 변와 시나리오 개발 및 경영 전략 수립)

  • Kim, Min-Kwan;Han, Chang-Hee
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.21-48
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    • 2008
  • The Korean on-line game industry is going through a rapid change. The future business environments for potential on-line game companies are very uncertain due to the new service and the different market trends. In this paper, I propose the use of morphological analysis approach for scenario generation about the future of the On-line game industry. The stages of research process were as follows; Firstly, digital contents analysis and key issues were drawn on IPTV in the on-line game industry. Secondly, each key issue was analyzed and the influence factors and directivity flow were found. Thirdly, highly probable future on-line game industry scenarios were derived. In this case, morphological analysis. On the basis of the developed scenarios, I formulated some implications for business strategy of a potential on-line game companies.

Uncertainty Analysis of Future Design Floods for the Yongdang Reservoir Watershed using Bootstrap Technique (Bootstrap 기법을 이용한 용당 저수지 유역의 미래 설계홍수량 불확실성 평가)

  • Lee, Do Gil;Kang, Moon Seong;Park, Jihoon;Ryu, Jeong Hoon
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.58 no.2
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    • pp.91-99
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    • 2016
  • To estimate design floods for hydraulic structures, statistical methods has been used in the analysis of rainfall data. However, due to the lack of rainfall data in some regions, it is difficult to apply the statistical methods for estimation of design rainfall. In addition, increased uncertainty of design rainfall arising from the limited rainfall data can become an important factor for determining the design floods. The main objective of this study was to assess the uncertainty of the future design floods under RCP (representative concentration pathways) scenarios using a bootstrap technique. The technique was used in this study to quantify the uncertainty in the estimation of the future design floods. The Yongdang watershed in South Korea, 2,873 ha in size, was selected as the study area. The study results showed that the standard errors of the basin of Yongdang reservoir were calculated as 2.0~6.9 % of probable rainfall. The standard errors of RCP4.5 scenario were higher than the standard errors of RCP8.5 scenario. As the results of estimation of design flood, the ranges of peak flows considered uncertainty were 2.3~7.1 %, and were different each duration and scenario. This study might be expected to be used as one of guidelines to consider when designing hydraulic structures.

A Study on the Material Supply Man-Hour Computation based on MODAPTS in Automobile Assembly Line (MODAPTS 기반 자동차 조립공정 부품공급 공수 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Jang, Jung-Hwan;Jang, Jing-Lun;Quan, Yu;Jho, Yong-Chul;Kim, Yu-Seong;Bae, Sang-Don;Kang, Du-Seok;Lee, Jae-Woong;Lee, Chang-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.127-135
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    • 2016
  • Korean automobile industrial is in a difficult situation because of more competitive global market and lower demand. Therefore, domestic as well as global automobile manufacturers are making greater efforts in cost reduction to strengthen the competitiveness. According to statistical data, logistics cost in domestic manufacturers is higher than advanced countries. In this study, we developed program to effectively manage standard time of procurement logistics, and confirm based on A-automobile factory data. For the purpose, we develop the system which is possible to manage standard time as well as calculate man-hour. Program is not just for calculating and managing standard man-hour, scenarios analysis function will be added to calculate benefit while introduce logistics automated equipment. In this study we propose scenario using AGV instead of electric motor while move component. In the scenario analysis, job constitution is changed, and then we use system to compare the result. We can confirm standard man-hour is reduced from 22.3M/H to 14.3M/H. In future research, it is necessary scenario analysis function, and develop algorithm with realistic constraint condition.