• Title/Summary/Keyword: Scenario analysis

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On Utilization of Inactive Storage in Dam during Drought Period (가뭄 극복을 위한 댐의 비활용용량 활용 방안 연구)

  • Joo, Hongjun;Kim, Deokhwan;Kim, Jungwook;Bae, Younghye;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.353-362
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to suggest a structure plan for improving the utilization of inactive storage in the dam for overcoming the drought. Inactive storage in the dam is composed of the emergency storage and dead storage. The emergency storage can be used for the case of emergency such as drought. But, in general, the dead storage for sedimentation is not used even for the emergency. Therefore, this study considers the part of dead storage that the sedimentation is not progressed yet can be used during the severe drought period and is called "drought storage in a dam". The accurate Sediment Level(SL) analysis for the computation of the drought storage should be performed and so the present and future SL in the dam reservoir is estimated using SED-2D linked with RMA-2 model of SMS. After the consideration of additionally available storage capacity based on the estimated SL, the drought storage is finally determined. Present data based on historical data, future predicted future climate factors by Representative Concentrarion Pathways(RCP) 8.5 scenario. Then, using the TANK model, dam inflows were determined, and future period such as SL and drought storage were suggested. As the results, we have found that the available drought storage will be reduced in the future when we compare the present drought storage with the future one. This is due to a increase variability of climate change. Therefore, we should take the necessary study for the increase of available drought storage in the future.

Evaluation of Eutrophication and Control Alternatives in Sejong Weir using EFDC Model (EFDC 모델에 의한 세종보의 부영양화 및 제어대책 평가)

  • Yun, Yeojeong;Jang, Eunji;Park, Hyung-Seok;Chung, Se-Woong
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.548-561
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    • 2018
  • The objectives of this study were to construct a three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic and water quality model (EFDC) for the river reach between the Daecheong dam and the Sejong weir, which are directly affected by Gap and Miho streams located in the middle of the Geum River, and to evaluate the trophic status and water quality improvement effect according to the flow control and pollutant load reduction scenarios. The EFDC model was calibrated with the field data including waterlevel, temperature and water quality collected from September, 2012 to April, 2013. The model showed a good agreement with the field data and adequately replicated the spatial and temporal variations of water surface elevation, temperature and water quality. Especially, it was confirmed that spatial distributions of nutrients and algae biomass have wide variation of transverse direction. Also, from the analysis of algal growth limiting factor, it was found that phosphorous loadings from Gap and Miho streams to Sejong weir induce eutrophication and algal bloom. The scenario of pollutant load reduction from Gap and Miho streams showed a significant effect on the improvement of water quality; 4.7~18.2% for Chl-a, 5.4~21.9% for TP at Cheongwon-1 site, and 4.2~ 17.3% for Chl-a and 4.7~19.4% for TP at Yeongi site. In addition, the eutrophication index value, identifying the tropic status of the river, was improved. Meanwhile, flow control of Daecheong Dam and Sejong weir showed little effect on the improvement of water quality; 1.5~2.4% for Chl-a, 2.5~ 3.8% for TP at Cheongwon-1 site, and 1.2~2.1% for Chl-a and 0.9~1.5% for TP at Yeongi site. Therefore, improvement of the water quality in Gap and Miho streams is essential and a prerequirement to meet the target water quality level of the study area.

Development of a deep neural network model to estimate solar radiation using temperature and precipitation (온도와 강수를 이용하여 일별 일사량을 추정하기 위한 심층 신경망 모델 개발)

  • Kang, DaeGyoon;Hyun, Shinwoo;Kim, Kwang Soo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.85-96
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    • 2019
  • Solar radiation is an important variable for estimation of energy balance and water cycle in natural and agricultural ecosystems. A deep neural network (DNN) model has been developed in order to estimate the daily global solar radiation. Temperature and precipitation, which would have wider availability from weather stations than other variables such as sunshine duration, were used as inputs to the DNN model. Five-fold cross-validation was applied to train and test the DNN models. Meteorological data at 15 weather stations were collected for a long term period, e.g., > 30 years in Korea. The DNN model obtained from the cross-validation had relatively small value of RMSE ($3.75MJ\;m^{-2}\;d^{-1}$) for estimates of the daily solar radiation at the weather station in Suwon. The DNN model explained about 68% of variation in observed solar radiation at the Suwon weather station. It was found that the measurements of solar radiation in 1985 and 1998 were considerably low for a small period of time compared with sunshine duration. This suggested that assessment of the quality for the observation data for solar radiation would be needed in further studies. When data for those years were excluded from the data analysis, the DNN model had slightly greater degree of agreement statistics. For example, the values of $R^2$ and RMSE were 0.72 and $3.55MJ\;m^{-2}\;d^{-1}$, respectively. Our results indicate that a DNN would be useful for the development a solar radiation estimation model using temperature and precipitation, which are usually available for downscaled scenario data for future climate conditions. Thus, such a DNN model would be useful for the impact assessment of climate change on crop production where solar radiation is used as a required input variable to a crop model.

Numerical analysis of morphological changes by opening gates of Sejong Weir (보 개방에 의한 하도의 지형변화 과정 수치모의 분석(세종보를 중심으로))

  • Jang, Chang-Lae;Baek, Tae Hyo;Kang, Taeun;Ock, Giyoung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.8
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    • pp.629-641
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    • 2021
  • In this study, a two-dimensional numerical model (Nays2DH) was applied to analyze the process of morphological changes in the river channel bed depending on the changes in the amount of flooding after fully opening the Sejong weir, which was constructed upstream of the Geum River. For this, numerical simulations were performed by assuming the flow conditions, such as a non-uniform flow (NF), unsteady flows (single flood event, SF), and a continuous flood event (CF). Here, in the cases of the SF and CF, the normalized hydrograph was calculated from real flood events, and then the hydrograph was reconfigured by the peak flow discharge according to the scenario, and then it was employed as the flow discharge at the upstream boundary condition. In this study, to quantitatively evaluate the morphological changes, we analyzed the time changes in the bed deformation the bed relief index (BRI), and we compared the aerial photographs of the study area and the numerical simulation results. As simulation results of the NF, when the steady flow discharge increases, the ratio of lower width to depth decreases and the speed of bar migration increases. The BRI initially increases, but the amount of change decreased with time. In addition, when the steady flow discharge increases, the BRI increased. In the case of SF, the speed of bar migration decreased with the change of the flow discharge. In terms of the morphological response to the peak flood discharge, the time lag also indicated. In other words, in the SF, the change of channel bed indicates a phase lag with respect to the hydraulic condition. In the result of numerical simulation of CF, the speed of bar migration depending on the peak flood discharges decreased exponentially despite the repeated flood occurrences. In addition, as in the result of SF, the phase lag indicated, and the speed of bar migration decreased exponentially. The BRI increased with time changes, but the rate of increase in the BRI was modest despite the continuous peak flooding. Through this study, the morphological changes based on the hydrological characteristics of the river were analyzed numerically, and the methodology suggested that a quantitative prediction for the river bed change according to the flow characteristic can be applied to the field.

Scenario-Based Analysis on the Effects of Green Areas on the Improvement of Urban Thermal Environment (녹지 조성 시나리오에 따른 도시 열환경 개선 효과 분석)

  • Min, Jin-Kyu;Eum, Jeong-Hee;Sung, Uk-Je;Son, Jeong-Min;Kim, Ju-Eun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.50 no.6
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2022
  • To alleviate the urban heat island phenomenon, this study aims to quantitatively analyze the effects of neighborhood green spaces on the improvement of the thermal environment based on detailed scenarios of five types of green spaces, including parks, pocket parks, parking lot greening, roadside planting, and rooftop-wall greening. The ENVI-met 4.4.6v model, a microclimate simulation program, was used to analyze the effects of green spaces. As a result, it was found that the air temperature decreased as the planting density of the park increased, but the thermal comfort index PET, which is the degree of heat sensation felt by humans, was not directly proportional to temperature. The establishment of a pocket park reduced air temperature up to a radius of 56m, while the range of temperature reduction increased by about 12.5% when three additional pocket parks were established at 250m intervals. Unlike the air temperature, PET was only affected in the vicinity of the planted area, so there was no significant difference in the thermal comfort of the surrounding environment due to the construction of pocket parks. Changing the surface pavement from asphalt to lawn blocks and implementing rooftop or wall greening did not directly act as solar shading but positively affected air temperature reduction; PET showed no significant difference. Roadside planting showed a higher air temperature reduction effect as the planting interval was narrower, but PET was not directly proportional to tree density. In the case of shrub planting under trees, it did not significantly affect the air temperature reduction but positively affected the improvement of thermal comfort. This study can outline strategies for constructing neighborhood green spaces to solve the urban heat island phenomena and establish detailed strategies for efficient thermal environment improvements.

Performance evaluation of hyperspectral bathymetry method for morphological mapping in a large river confluence (초분광수심법 기반 대하천 합류부 하상측정 성능 평가)

  • Kim, Dongsu;Seo, Youngcheol;You, Hojun;Gwon, Yeonghwa
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.3
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    • pp.195-210
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    • 2023
  • Additional deposition and erosion in large rivers in South Korea have continued to occur toward morphological stabilization after massive dredging through the four major river restoration project, subsequently requiring precise bathymetry monitoring. Hyperspectral bathymetry method has increasingly been highlighted as an alternative way to estimate bathymetry with high spatial resolution in shallow depth for replacing classical intrusive direct measurement techniques. This study introduced the conventional Optimal Band Ratio Analysis (OBRA) of hyperspectral bathymetry method, and evaluated the performance in a domestic large river in normal turbid and flow condition. Maximum measurable depth was estimated by applying correlation coefficient and root mean square error (RMSE) produced during OBRA with cascadedly applying cut-off depth, where the consequent hyperspectral bathymetry map excluded the region over the derived maximum measurable depth. Also non-linearity was considered in building relation between optimal band and depth. We applied the method to the Nakdong and Hwang River confluence as a large river case and obtained the following features. First, the hyperspectal method showed acceptable performance in morphological mapping for shallow regions, where the maximum measurable depth was 2.5 m and 1.25 m in the Nakdong and Hwang river, respectively. Second, RMSE was more feasible to derive the maximum measurable depth rather than the conventional correlation coefficient whereby considering various scenario of excluding range of in situ depths for OBRA. Third, highly turbid region in Hwang River did not allow hyperspectral bathymetry mapping compared with the case of adjacent Nakdong River, where maximum measurable depth was down to half in Hwang River.

Modeling the Effects of Forest Management Scenarios on Aboveground Biomass and Wood Production: A Study in Mt. Gariwang, South Korea (산림경영활동에 따른 수종별 지상부생물량 및 목재생산량 변화 모델링: 가리왕산 모델숲을 대상으로)

  • Wonhee Cho;Wontaek Lim;Won Il Choi;Hee Moon Yang;Dongwook W. Ko
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.112 no.2
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    • pp.173-187
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    • 2023
  • The forest protection policies implemented in South Korea have resulted in the significant accumulation of forest. Moreover, the associated public interest has also been closely evaluated. As forests mature, there arises a need for forest management (FM) practices, such as thinning and harvesting. It is therefore essential to perform a scientific analysis of the long-term effects of FM. In this study, conducted in Mt. Gariwang, the effect of FM on forest succession and wood production (WP) were evaluated based on changes in aboveground biomass (AGB) using the LANDIS-II model. The FM consists of three scenarios (Selection, Shelterwood, and Two-stories), characterized based on the harvest intensity, frequency, and period. The model was applied to changes in the forest over 200 years. All scenarios show that the total AGB decreased immediately after thinning and harvesting. However, AGB recovery time differed among scenarios, with recovery to preharvest level occurring from 15 to 50 years after harvest; further, after 200 years, harvested forests had a greater total AGB than forests without FMs In particular, the changes in AGB of each species was different depending on its shade tolerance. The AGB of currently dominant shade-intolerant and mid-tolerant species decreased dramatically after harvesting. However, shade-tolerant species, dominant in the understory, continued to grow but were not harvested due to their small size. The cumulative WP for each scenario was estimated at 545.6, 141.6, and 299.9 tons/ha in Selection, Shelterwood, and Two-stories, respectively. The composition of WP differed according to harvest intensity and period. Most WP originated from shade-intolerant and mid-tolerant species in the early period. Later, most WP was from shade-tolerant species, which became dominant. The modeling approach used in this study is capable of analyzing the long-term effects of FM on changes in forests and WP. This study can contribute to decision making to guide FM methods for a variety of purposes, including WP and controlling forest composition and structure.

Effectiveness Analysis of HOT Lane and Application Scheme for Korean Environment (HOT차로 운영에 대한 효과분석 및 국내활용방안)

  • Choi, Kee Choo;Kim, Jin Howan;Oh, Seung Hwoon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.1D
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    • pp.25-32
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    • 2009
  • Currently, various types of TDM (Transportation Demand Management) policies are being studied and implemented in an attempt to overcome the limitations of supply oriented policies. In this context, this paper addressed issues of effectiveness and possible domestic implementation of the HOT lane. The possible site of implementation selected for this simulation study is part of the Kyung-bu freeway, where a dedicated bus lane is currently being operated. Minimum length of distance required in between interchanges and access points of the HOT lane for vehicles to safely enter and exit the lane, and traffic management policies for effectively managing the weaving traffic trying to enter and exit the HOT lane were presented. A 5.2km section of freeway from Ki-heuing IC to Suwon IC and a 8.3km section from Hak-uei JC to Pan-gyo JC have been selected as possible sites of implementation for the HOT lane, in which congestion occurs regularly due to the high level of travel demand. VISSIM simulation program has been used to analyze the effects of the HOT lane under the assumption that one-lane HOT lane has been put into operation in these sections and that the lane change rate were in between 5% to 30%. The results of each possible scenario have proven that overall travel speed on the general lanes have increased as well by 1.57~2.62km/h after the implementation of the HOT lane. It is meaningful that this study could serve as a basic reference data for possible follow-up studies on the HOT lane as one effective method of TDM policies. Considering that the bus travel rate would continue increase and assuming the improvement in travel speed on general lanes, similar case study can be implemented where gaps between buses on bus lane are available, as a possible alternative of efficient bus lane management policies.

Yield, Nitrogen Use Efficiency and N Uptake Response of Paddy Rice Under Elevated CO2 & Temperature (CO2 및 온도 상승 시 벼의 수량, 질소 이용 효율 및 질소 흡수 반응)

  • Hyeonsoo Jang;Wan-Gyu Sang;Youn-Ho Lee;Pyeong Shin;Jin-hee Ryu;Hee-woo Lee;Dae-wook Kim;Jong-tag Youn;Ji-Won Han
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.346-358
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    • 2023
  • Due to the acceleration of climate change or global warming, it is important to predict rice productivity in the future and investigate physiological changes in rice plants. The research aimed to explore how rice adapts to climate change by examining the response of nitrogen absorption and nitrogen use efficiency in rice under elevated levels of carbon dioxide and temperature, utilizing the SPAR system for analysis. The temperature increased by +4.7 ℃ in comparison to the period from 2001 to 2010, while the carbon dioxide concentration was held steady at 800 ppm, aligning with South Korea's late 21st-century RCP8.5 scenario. Nitrogen was applied as fertilizer at rates of 0, 9, and 18 kg 10a-1, respectively. Under conditions of climate change, there was an 81% increase in the number of panicles compared to the present situation. However, grain weight decreased by 38% as a result of reduction in the grain filling rate. BNUE, indicative of the nitrogen use efficiency in plant biomass, exhibited a high value under climate change conditions. However, both NUEg and ANUE, associated with grain production, experienced a notable and significant decrease. In comparison to the current conditions, nitrogen uptake in leaves and stems increased by 100% and 151%, respectively. However, there was a 25% decrease in nitrogen uptake in the panicle. Likewise, the nitrogen content and NDFF (Nitrogen Derived from Fertilizer) in the sink organs, namely leaves and roots, were elevated in comparison to current levels. Therefore, it is imperative to ensure resources by mitigating the decrease in ripening rates under climate change conditions. Moreover, there seems to be a requirement for follow-up research to enhance the flow of photosynthetic products under climate change conditions.

Analysis of Appropriate Automobile Tax Rate Considering the Average CO2 Emissions by Engine Displacement in Korea (한국의 배기량별 평균 CO2 배출량을 고려한 자동차세의 적정 세율 분석)

  • Hyunwoo Choi;Min Gyeong Jung;Hyeon Woo Jang;Dong Koo Kim
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.217-238
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    • 2023
  • Currently, automobile tax in Korea is imposed by multiplying the vehicle's engine displacement by a certain tax rate. However, the need for revision is being raised as it is pointed out that the current system does not reflect the immediate task of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Accordingly, this study focuses on the positive relationship between engine displacement and CO2 emissions, and seeks to calculate an appropriate automobile tax rate considering average CO2 emissions. To this end, first, we estimated the average annual CO2 emissions (kg/vehicle) for each engine displacement using the average CO2 emissions for each vehicle displacement as of 2020. Next, multiple scenarios were analyzed considering the standard tax rate at $75 per ton of CO2 emissions proposed by the IMF (2019). In particular, we compared the case of imposing a uniform carbon tax of $75 and the case of imposing a progressive tax based on CO2 emissions by displacement. According to the results, it was confirmed that the uniform tax rate proposed by the IMF is difficult to apply to Korea as it is due to the impact of a decrease in tax revenue, and a tax scheme needs to be designed appropriately considering maintenance of tax revenue according to the current automobile tax, greenhouse gas reduction effect, and automobile tax reform trends in developed countries. For example, in the case of the K3 (1,598cc) of Kia Motors, a representative compact car sold in Korea, if we compare the tax burdens for each tax scenario, the tax burden will be about 220,000 KRW under the current system, about 79,000 KRW under the uniform tax rate, about 83,000 KRW under the progressive tax rate, and about 240,000 KRW under the progressive tax rate similar to the UK tax system, respectively. In this way, this study identified the current statuses of automobile registration and tax in Korea, and automobile tax reform trends in major developed countries, and analyzed the impact of automobile tax reform considering engine displacement and CO2 emissions, focusing on the tax burden of the people.