• Title/Summary/Keyword: Scenario analysis

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Performance Comparison Between Routing Protocols Based on the Correlation Analysis of Performance Metrics for AODV Routing Protocol (AODV 라우팅 프로토콜의 성능 매트릭들 간의 상관관계 분석에 기반한 라우팅 프로토콜들 간의 성능 비교)

  • Lee, Yun-Kyung;Kim, Ju-Gyun
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.349-367
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    • 2013
  • In MANET, the AODV routing protocol with on-demand method has a problem in large control packet overhead. In order to improve this, we first need a comprehensive analysis of correlation between performance metrics and factors affecting the performance of AODV. Selected parameters based on this analysis make it enable to be a more accurate and fair performance analysis, as well as to reduce the time and effort when constructing a scenario for performance analysis. In this paper, various scenarios are configured to apply AODV by varying the values of factors affecting the performance with network simulator QualNet 5.0, and then the results are analysed using performance metrics proposed by IETF MANET working group. This paper also founds a correlation between performance metrics and factors affecting the performance for AODV routing protocol, choosing the values of factors that represent many of the most maximum and minimum values of each performance metrics, and proposes optimal simulation parameters for a more accurate performance evaluation of routing protocols with minimal scenario in experiments. Next, performance comparison of AODV, DSR and DYMO routing protocols based on the proposed simulation parameters is shown which provides a comparative analysis on the performance of on-demand routing protocols. Results of this paper could be very useful for the researcher or service provider who wants to find nice simulation environment or select a proper routing protocol.

Application of Probabilistic Health Risk Analysis in Life Cycle Assessment -Part I : A General Framework for Uncertainty and Variability Analysis of Health Risk in Life Cycle Assessment (전과정평가에 있어 확률론적 건강영향분석기법 적용 -Part I : 전과정평가에 있어 확률론적 위해도 분석기법 적용방안에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Kwang-Soo;Park, Jae-Sung
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.185-202
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    • 2000
  • Uncertainty and variability in Life Cycle Assessment(LCA) have been significant key issues in LCA methodology with techniques in other research area such as social and political science. Variability is understood as stemming from inherent variations in the real world, while uncertainty comes from inaccurate measurements, lack of data, model assumptions, etc. Related articles in this issues were reviewed for classification, distinguish and elaboration of probabilistic/stochastic health risk analysis application in LCA. Concept of focal zone, streamlining technique, scenario modelling and Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube risk analysis were applied to the uncertainty/variability analysis of health risk in LCA. These results show that this general framework of multi-disciplinary methodology between probabilistic health risk assessment and LCA was of benefit to decision making process by suppling information about input/output data sensitivity, health effect priority and health risk distribution. There should be further research needs for case study using this methodology.

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Practical investigation of a monopod fabrication method and the numerical investigation of its up-righting process

  • Hafez, Khaled A.;Ismael, Maged M.
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.431-453
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    • 2013
  • The principal purpose of this paper is to present a novel two phases rational scenario applied in constructing an offshore monopod platform; in which the two phases are the all-ground horizontal construction phase and the post-construction phase. Concerning the all-ground construction phase, a brief investigation of its different stages, i.e., pre-fabrication, fabrication, pre-assembling, positioning, assembling, and surface finishing is introduced. The important practical aspects of such construction phase are investigated without going into the nitty-gritty of the details involved therein. Concerning the post-construction phase, a clear investigation of its sequential stages, i.e., lifting, moving and up-righting is introduced. A finite element model (FEM) of the monopod platform is created to perform the structural analysis necessary to decide the suspension points/devices and the handling scenario during the various stages of the post-construction phase on a rational wise. Such structural analysis is performed within the framework of the three dimensional quasi-static modeling and analysis aiming at simulating the realistic handling condition, and hence introducing a reliable physical interpretation of the numerical results. For the whole effort to be demonstrated efficiently, the results obtained are analyzed, the conclusions are presented, and few related recommendations are suggested.

Congestion Analysis in the Inner Harbour of Ulsan Using a Scenario (시나리오를 이용한 울산 내항의 혼잡 분석)

  • Ha, Chang-Seung;Baek, Ih-Huhm
    • Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.278-287
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    • 2007
  • Since traffic congestion ratio at any given port fluctuates on the number of arriving and departing vessels, the total tonnage of freight volume being handled, and the number of berth in operation and other factors, there exists a need to numerically analyze the waterway traffic volume. However, there are no effective regulations in regards to the waterway traffic analysis prior to expansion of a port facility. The current analysis requires the traffic analysis in relation only to the width of the waterway, which clearly falls short of achieving a comprehensive evaluation study that could be used in consideration of port expansion.This study provides five scenarios to execute a comprehensive evaluation study and base for the sensitivity study by analyzing the scenarios. As a result of the sensitivity analysis, the A, B, and C scenarios varies the average arrival ratio of the berth shows 1.1, 1.19, and 1.28 times of delays respectively. Also, The D and E scenarios take place malfunctions of pier shows 1.21 and 1.53 times of delays respectively. Therefore, various strategies of harbor development and method of harbor management are needed for the flexible correspondence to the environmental changes such as the excessive increasing of the freight volume and often taking place of malfunctioning.

A Correlation Analysis between Word-of Mouth Message Sender Credibility and WOM Effect (외식업소에 대한 구전 메시지 발신자 신뢰도와 구전효과의 상관성 분석)

  • Cha, Sung-Mi;Shin, Seo-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Culture
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.536-540
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    • 2006
  • The purposes of this study were 1) to analyze the correlation between Word-of-Mouth(WOM) message sender credibility and WOM effect and 2) to analyze the differences of WOM message sender creadibility and WOM effect in off-line and on-line WOM communication. The messages were created as a form of scenario for this study. Respondents were asked to evaluate the message sender credibility and predict WOM behaviors after reading given scenario. The questionnaires were distributed to 200 customers and a total of 175 questionnaires were used for analysis(87.5%). The statistical analysis was conducted using SPSS Win(12.0) for descriptive analysis, paired t-test, factor analysis, correlation analysis. The positive off-line WOM message sender was considered as more credible(p<.001) than on-line WOM message sender. 'Message sender credibility' is correlated with 'attitude formation' in both channels, but 'reliable' factor of 'credibility' variable is not significantly correlated with 'attitude change'.

The analysis of two-lane highway traffic flows in case of the neighborhood electric vehicle involved (2차로도로에서 저속전기자동차 혼입에 따른 교통류 특성분석)

  • Jang, Keun-Woo;Jung, Sung-Hwa;Cho, Ju-Myung;Jung, Phil-Hyun
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.124-134
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    • 2011
  • To make popular the NEV(Neighborhood Electric Vehicles) uses, it must be considered the supply of infrastructure and the political decision for NEV. However, the guidelines of infrastructure for NEV are not prepared. The guidelines of infrastructure for NEV should be performed in many research and case. The purpose of this study is to reveal the influence of NEV on the two-lane highway traffic flows by TWOPAS simulation model. The main items to check the influence are Average Travel speed, Percent Time Spent Following and Total Delay. The scenario were setup by traffic volume. And the NEV percentages are changed from 1% ~ 30%. The scenario 1 which traffic volume are 650veh/h and the scenario 4 which traffic volume are 2,600veh/h are less influenced by NEV, compare to scenario 2, scenario 3. Because the scenario 1 is more free to make passing other cars and Scenario 4 is fully saturated with existing traffic volumes. The urban two-lane highway which has much traffic volume and the rural two-lane highway which has little traffic volume has affinity for NEV than the other two-lane highway.

Regional snows scenario for the support systems Analysis (지역별 제설 시나리오 응원체계 구축연구)

  • Kim, Heejae;Oak, Youngsuk;Kim, Geunyoung
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.163-172
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    • 2017
  • Because of abnormal weather, a heavy snow on the Northern latitudes occurs frequently. This has resulted in significant damage and recovery costs. In korea, it has been declared a special disaster area due to heavy snowfall in Gangneung and Pohang 2004, 2005 and 2011, so there was a revision of action instruction for the road snow removal. Although, in our current system, snow removing methodology, regional equipment holdings, and snow responsible interval, respectively, has been classified by the National Highway, near cities and provinces support system not yet prepared. Only, if snow removing is not possible within the region itself, which contained the contents of "support and assistance to military or nearby offices requests". In this thesis, we studied the disaster scenario development according to heavy snow and the response and support system to the features of each regional. For the scenario deduction, we preferentially collected day snowfall and disaster yearbook data to regionals, classified similar pattern and plotted GIS snow map. We also classified heavy snow disaster by region and type and we deduced five-step scenario. The five-step scenario is nationwide(1st-stage), the National Capital region(2nd-stage), the Chungcheong Provinces(3rd-stage), the Kangwon province(4th-stage) and the Ch?l a provinces(5th-stage). Therefore we build near provinces support system according to five-step scenario.

GHG Mitigation Scenario Analysis in Building Sector using Energy System Model (에너지시스템 분석 모형을 통한 국내 건물부문 온실가스 감축시나리오 분석)

  • Yun, Seong Gwon;Jeong, Young Sun;Cho, Cheol Hung;Jeon, Eui Chan
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.153-163
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    • 2014
  • This study analyzed directions of the energy product efficiency improvement and Carbon Tax for the domestic building sector. In order to analyze GHG reduction potential and total cost, the cost optimization model MESSAGE was used. In the case of the "efficiency improvement scenario," the cumulative potential GHG reduction amount - with respect to the "Reference scenario" - from 2010 to 2030 is forecast to be $104MtCO_2eq$, with a total projected cost of 2.706 trillion KRW. In the "carbon tax scenario," a reduction effect of $74MtCO_2eq$ in cumulative potential GHG reduction occurred, with a total projected cost of 2.776 trillion KRW. The range of per-ton GHG reduction cost for each scenario was seen to be approximately $-475{\sim}272won/tCO_2eq$, and the "efficiency improvement scenario" showed as the highest in the order of priority, in terms of the GHG reduction policy direction. Regarding policies to reduce GHG emissions in the building sector, the energy efficiency improvement is deemed to deployed first in the future.

Probabilistic Analysis for Longitudinal Displacement due to Skew Angle of Bridges under Scenario Earthquakes (모의 지진하중에 의한 교량의 사가에 따른 축방향변위에 대한 확률론적 해석)

  • 전환석;이대형;정영수
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 1998.10a
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    • pp.553-558
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    • 1998
  • Since the mid of the 20th century in the world, it has been observed that the number of minor or moderate earthquake motions tend to be increased year by year. Owing to the topographical condition, moreover, large numbers of skew bridges have been constructed for the requirements of more than DB18 ton bridge in Korea. It has been also observed from foreign countries that lots of superstructures collapse in bridge were occurred in previous earthquakes, inclusive of 1995 Kobe earthquake. This is caused by a relative displacement between the upper and lower structure of bridge by the earthquake and the rotation with respect to the vertical axis of skew bridges, which were subjected to and earthquake motion. In this study, the probabilistic analysis of unseating failure of skew bridges under scenario earthquake has been carried out by evaluating the longitudinal displacement of skew bridges.

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Dynamic Modeling of the Korean Nuclear Euel Cycle

  • Jeong, Chang-Joon;Park, Joo-Hwan;Park, Hangbok
    • Proceedings of the Korean Radioactive Waste Society Conference
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    • 2004.06a
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    • pp.386-395
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    • 2004
  • The Korean fuel cycle scenario has been modeled by using the dynamic analysis method. For once-through fuel cycle model, the nuclear power plant construction plan was considered, and the nuclear demand growth rate from the year 2016 was assumed to be 1%. After setup the once-thorough fuel cycle model, the DUPIC and fast reactor scenarios were modeled to investigate the environmental effect of each fuel cycle. Through the calculation of the amount of spent fuel, and the amounts of plutonium and minor actinides were estimated and compared to those of the once-through fuel cycle. The results of the once-through fuel cycle shows that the demand grows to 64 GWe and the total amount of the spent fuel would be 100 kt in the year 2100, while the total spent fuel can be reduced by 50% when the DUPIC scenario is implemented

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