• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.1-22
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• 2017

Analysis of future business or investment opportunities, such as business feasibility analysis and company or technology valuation, necessitate objective estimation on the relevant market and expected sales. While there are various ways to classify the estimation methods of these new sales or market size, they can be broadly divided into top-down and bottom-up approaches by benchmark references. Both methods, however, require a lot of resources and time. Therefore, we propose a data-based intelligent demand forecasting system to support evaluation of new business. This study focuses on analogical forecasting, one of the traditional quantitative forecasting methods, to develop sales forecasting intelligence systems for new businesses. Instead of simply estimating sales for a few years, we hereby propose a method of estimating the sales of new businesses by using the initial sales and the sales growth rate of similar companies. To demonstrate the appropriateness of this method, it is examined whether the sales performance of recently established companies in the same industry category in Korea can be utilized as a reference variable for the analogical forecasting. In this study, we examined whether the phenomenon of "mean reversion" was observed in the sales of start-up companies in order to identify errors in estimating sales of new businesses based on industry sales growth rate and whether the differences in business environment resulting from the different timing of business launch affects growth rate. We also conducted analyses of variance (ANOVA) and latent growth model (LGM) to identify differences in sales growth rates by industry category. Based on the results, we proposed industry-specific range and linear forecasting models. This study analyzed the sales of only 150,000 start-up companies in Korea in the last 10 years, and identified that the average growth rate of start-ups in Korea is higher than the industry average in the first few years, but it shortly shows the phenomenon of mean-reversion. In addition, although the start-up founding juncture affects the sales growth rate, it is not high significantly and the sales growth rate can be different according to the industry classification. Utilizing both this phenomenon and the performance of start-up companies in relevant industries, we have proposed two models of new business sales based on the sales growth rate. The method proposed in this study makes it possible to objectively and quickly estimate the sales of new business by industry, and it is expected to provide reference information to judge whether sales estimated by other methods (top-down/bottom-up approach) pass the bounds from ordinary cases in relevant industry. In particular, the results of this study can be practically used as useful reference information for business feasibility analysis or technical valuation for entering new business. When using the existing top-down method, it can be used to set the range of market size or market share. As well, when using the bottom-up method, the estimation period may be set in accordance of the mean reverting period information for the growth rate. The two models proposed in this study will enable rapid and objective sales estimation of new businesses, and are expected to improve the efficiency of business feasibility analysis and technology valuation process by developing intelligent information system. In academic perspectives, it is a very important discovery that the phenomenon of 'mean reversion' is found among start-up companies out of general small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs) as well as stable companies such as listed companies. In particular, there exists the significance of this study in that over the large-scale data the mean reverting phenomenon of the start-up firms' sales growth rate is different from that of the listed companies, and that there is a difference in each industry. If a linear model, which is useful for estimating the sales of a specific company, is highly likely to be utilized in practical aspects, it can be explained that the range model, which can be used for the estimation method of the sales of the unspecified firms, is highly likely to be used in political aspects. It implies that when analyzing the business activities and performance of a specific industry group or enterprise group there is political usability in that the range model enables to provide references and compare them by data based start-up sales forecasting system.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.285-295
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• 2001

This study describes the analysis on the dynamic characteristics of model as a fundamental studies for the horn fish Hemiramphus sajor surface pair trawl gear. The model experiments were carried out in a flume tank by using model net for the horn fish surface par trawl gear. The model net was made to the scale of 1/40 by scaling down two surfce par trawl boats of 6.67 and 9.98 ton used for sea experiment in the coast of Jeju Island. Dimensions of the model net were 1.2m for stretch length of net, 1.3m for float line, 1.0m for sinker line, 2.5g for floats, and 0.86g for sinkers. Experiments were conducted in the observation channel of a flume tank with experimental equipments used to change the distance between paired boats and towing velocity. Motion of model net during towing was recorded by two sets of digital camera which were placed in the top and side of the model net. The leading coordinate of net height and net mouth width was captured by the photograph analysis system. Through the experiment, we obtained the following results: 1. The relationship between the net hight(Nh) and towing velocity(Vt) during towing was found to be Nh=(2.39Db-$^{0.62})Vt^{0.56}$ and the relationship between the net mouth width (Nw) and towing velocity during towing was Nw=(0.96Db^{0.62})Vt^{0.11}$, where Db is the distance between paired boats. 2. The relationship between the net tension(Nt) and towing velocity during towing was found to be Nt=106.94Vt+1.43 and the model net becomes parallel to the water surface at the towing velocity larger than 1.5 Knot. 3. The relationship between the net opening area(Na) and towing velocity during towing was found to be Na=(2.28Db0.37)Vt.-0.45, and the relationship between the filtering volume(Fv) and towing velocity during towing was Fv=(69.9Db$^{0.37})Vt^{0.55}$. The net opening area and filtering volume reach maximum value at the distance of 25m between paired boats.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.418-427
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• 2004

Recently, urban planning with consideration of urban climate, represented by the concept of urban ventilation lane is widely practiced in many countries. The concept of urban ventilation lane is mainly aimed to improve the thermal comfort within urban area in summer season. It has also the aim to reduce the urban air pollution by natural cold air drainage flows which are to be intensified by a suitable alignment of buildings as well as use zonings based on scientific reasons. In this study, the prevailing wind ventilation lane of a local wind circulation and around Daegu for a typical summer days was investigated by using a numerical simulation. The transport of air pollutants by the local circulation winds was also investigated by using the numerical simulation model, the RAMS (Reasonal Atmospheric Model System).The domain of interest is the vicinity of Daegu metropolitan city (about 900 km2). The horizontal scale of the area is about 30 km. The simulations were conducted under a late spring synoptic condition with weak gradient wind and almost clear sky. From the numerical experiment, the following three conclusions were obtained: (1) The major wind passages of the local circulation wind generated by radiative cooling over the representative mountains of Daegu (Mt. Palgong and Mt. Ap) were found. The winds blow down along the valley axis over the eastern part of Daegu as a gravity flow during nighttime. (2) At the flatland, the winds blow toward the western part of Daegu through the city center. (3) As the results, the air pollutants were transported toward the western part of Daegu by the winds during nighttime.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.7-13
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• 2013

A scaled version of a roller rig is developed to demonstrate the dynamic characteristics of a railway vehicle for academic purposes. This rig is designed based on Jaschinski's similarity law. It is scaled to 1/10 of actual size and allows 9-DOF motion to examine the up and down vibration of a train set. The test rig consists of three sub-hardware components: (i) a driving roller mechanism with a three-phase AC motor and an inverter, (ii) a bogie structure with first and second suspensions, and (iii) the vehicle body. The motor of the rig is capable of 3,600rpm, allowing the test to simulate a vehicle up to a maximum speed of 400Km/hr. Because bearings and joints are properly connected to the sub-structures, various motion analyses, such as a lateral, pitching, and yawing motion, are allowed. The slip motion between the rail and the wheel set is also monitored by several sensors mounted in the rig. After the construction of the hardware, an experiment is conducted to obtain the natural frequencies of the dynamic behavior of the specimen. First, the test rig is run and data are collected from six sets of accelerometers. Then, a numerical analysis of the model based on the ADAMS program is derived. Finally, the measurement data of the first three fundamental frequencies are compared to the analytical result and the validation of the test rig is conducted. The results show that the developed roller rig provides good accuracy in simulating the dynamic behavior of the vehicle motion. Although the roller rig designed in this paper is intended for academia, it can easily be implemented as part of a dynamic experiment of a bogie and a vehicle body for a high-speed train as part of the research efforts in this area.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.49 no.11
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• pp.931-939
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• 2016

Bangudae Petroglopys of the national treasure No. 285 located in elevation of 53 m to 57 m have been damaged by repetition of submergence and exposure due to the Sayeon-dam of EL.60 m constructed in down stream. In this study, as a preservation plan of the petroglyphs from the contact with water, the construction of eco-levee was suggested and its effect was investigated in the views of hydraulic engineering. It was designed to be located aside of 80 m from Bangudae Petroglyphs with the length of 440 m in streamwise direction, and it was need to construct a new channel maintaining the original hydraulic capacity and conveyance. Hydraulic characteristics such as water surface elevations and velocities near Bangudae Petroglyphs were measured after the eco-levee was installed in the hydraulic model with the scale of 1:50. It showed that there were not much changes of water surface elevations and velocities between sayeon-dam spillway EL. 60 m (Suggestion 1) and EL. 54 m (Suggestion 2). It was concluded the eco-levee could be made of natural materials like soil, pebble, gravel in terms of allowable velocity and shear stresses. The slope of water surface at Suggestion 2 was steeper, and velocities near Bangudae Petroglyphs were also faster than Suggestion 1. As the vorties occured at the left side in Suggestion 2, more detailed study is required.

• Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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• v.39 no.7
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• pp.773-778
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• 2015

Global warming has recently become an issue that has resulted in a growing trend to minimize environmental pollution. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has shown that the majority of marine atmospheric pollution occurs as a result of emissions from marine vessels. Therefore, the environmental regulations and emission standards regarding marine vessels have gradually become stricter, and the research and development in this area is experiencing significant progress. In this study, a nozzle for a fuel oil scrubber was investigated using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and particle imaging velocimetry (PIV). Experiments were conducted on scaled-down model of the scrubber to determine its performance, which was then compared with CFD results. Based on the experimental results, it was found that at a spray angle of $66^{\circ}$, the spray velocity at the nozzle was 20.1 m/s. From this comparison, a full-scale scrubber model was analyzed using CFD, and the effect of the positioning of the nozzle was studied.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.171-177
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• 2013

The purpose of this study is to find a scheme to scale down the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) digital precipitation maps to the grid cell resolution comparable to the rural landscape scale in Korea. As a result, we suggest two steps procedure called RATER (Radar Assisted Topography and Elevation Revision) based on both radar echo data and a mountain precipitation model. In this scheme, the radar reflection intensity at the constant altitude of 1.5 km is applied first to the KMA local analysis and prediction system (KLAPS) 5 km grid cell to obtain 1 km resolution. For the second step the elevation and topography effect on the basis of 270 m digital elevation model (DEM) which represented by the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) is applied to the 1 km resolution data to produce the 270 m precipitation map. An experimental watershed with about $50km^2$ catchment area was selected for evaluating this scheme and automated rain gauges were deployed to 13 locations with the various elevations and slope aspects. 19 cases with 1 mm or more precipitation per day were collected from January to May in 2013 and the corresponding KLAPS daily precipitation data were treated with the second step procedure. For the first step, the 24-hour integrated radar echo data were applied to the KLAPS daily precipitation to produce the 1 km resolution data across the watershed. Estimated precipitation at each 1 km grid cell was then regarded as the real world precipitation observed at the center location of the grid cell in order to derive the elevation regressions in the PRISM step. We produced the digital precipitation maps for all the 19 cases by using RATER and extracted the grid cell values corresponding to 13 points from the maps to compare with the observed data. For the cases of 10 mm or more observed precipitation, significant improvement was found in the estimated precipitation at all 13 sites with RATER, compared with the untreated KLAPS 5 km data. Especially, reduction in RMSE was 35% on 30 mm or more observed precipitation.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.39 no.2
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• pp.178-192
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• 2018

The purposes of this study were to develop and apply on learning on geological field trip utilizing the social construction of scientific model. We developed field trip places by considering not only Orion (1993)'s novelty space but also the achievement standards of 2015 national curriculum. The subjects of the study were 8 in the 'G' science gifted education center. We conducted a study using the theme of 'How was formed Mt. Gwanak?' on 5 lessons including a series of 2 field trip lessons and 3 lessons utilizing the social construction of scientific model. Students participated in pre- and post-test on the understanding of scientific knowledge about formation of mountain. Semi-structured interview was used to analyze students' learning about geological field trip in terms of affective domain. Results were as follows. First, there were 2 places of upper-stream valley and down-stream valley separately. They contained outcrops gneiss, granite, joint in the valley, xenolith, fault plane, mineral in the valley. Second, pre- and post-test and semi-structure interview were analyzed in terms of what scientific knowledge students learned about and how Mt. Gwanak was formed. Seven students explained that Mt. Gwanak was volcano during pretest. Seven students described how granite was formed to form Mt. Gwanak. They also understood geological time scale, i.e., metamorphic rock. Third, the geological field trip was effective to low achievement geoscience students as they engaged in the activities of field trip. Using positive responses on affective learning was effective on learning on geological field trip when utilizing the social construction of scientific model. This study suggests that teachers use an example 'model' on geoscience education. This study also suggests that teachers apply the social construction of scientific model to geological field trip.

• Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.37-87
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• 1997

As a results of researches on the cultivation processes and settlement developments on the Mangyoung river valley as a whole could be have four 'Space-Time Continuity' through a [Origin-Destination] theory model. On a initial phases of cultivation, the cultivation process has been begun at mountain slopes and tributory plains in upper part of river-basin from Koryo Dynasty to early Chosun Dynasty. At first, indigenous peasants burned forests on the mountain slopes for making 'dryfield' for a cereal crops. Following population increase more stable food supply is necessary facets of life inducing a change production method into a 'wetfield' in tributory plains matching the population increase. First sedentary agriculture maybe initiated at this mountain slopes and tributory plains on upper part of river basin through a burning cultivation methods. Mountain slopes and tributory plains are become a Origin area in cultivation processes. It expanded from up to down through the valleys with 'a bits of land' fashion in a steady pace like a terraced fields expanded with bit by bit of land to downward. They expanded their land to the middle part of river basin in mid period of Chosun Dynasty with dike construction techniques on the river bank. Lower part of river cultivated with embankment building techniques in 1920s and then naturally expanded to the tidal marshes on the estuaries and river inlets of coastal areas. 'Pioneer fringes' are consolidated at there in modern times. Changes in landscapes are appeared it's own characters with each periods of time. Followings are results of study through the Mangyoung river valley as a whole. (1) Mountain slopes and tributory plains on the upper part of river are cultivated 'dryfields' by indigenous peasants with Burning cultivation methods at first and developed sedentary settlements at the edges of mountain slopes and on the river terrace near the fields. They formed a kind of 'periphery-located cluster type' of settlement. This type of settlement are become a prominant type in upper part of river basin. 'Dryfields' has been changed into a 'wetfields' at the narrow tributory plains by increasing population pressure in later time. These wetfields are supplied water by Weir and Ponds Irrigation System(제언수리방법). Streams on the tributory plains has been attracted wetfields besides of it and formed a [water+land] complex on it. 'Wetfields' are expanded from up to downward with a terraced land pattern(adder like pattern, 붕전) according to the gradient of valley. These periphery located settlements are formed a intimate ecological linkage with several sets of surroundings. Inner villages are expanded to Outer villages according to the expansion of arable lands into downward. (2) Mountain slopes and tributory plains expanded its territory to the alluvial deposited plains on the middle part of river valley with a urgent need of new land by population increase. This part of alluvial plains are cultivated mainly in mid period of Chosun Dynasty. Irrigation methods are changed into a Dike Construction Irrigation method(천방수리방법) for the control of floods. It has a trend to change the subjectives of cultivation from community-oriented one who constructed Bochang along tributories making rice paddies to local government authorities who could be gather large sums of capitals, techniques and labours for the big dike construction affairs. Settlements are advanced in the midst of plains avoiding friction of distances and formed a 'Centrallocated cluster type' of settlements. There occured a hierarchical structures of settlements in ranks and sizes according merits of water supply and transportation convenience at the broad plains. Big towns are developed at there. It strengthened a more prominant [water+land] complex along the canals. Ecological linkages between settlements and surroundings are shaded out into a tiny one in this area. (3) It is very necessary to get a modern technology of flood control at the rivers that have a large volume of water and broad width. The alluvial plains are remained in a wilderness phase until a technical level reached a large artificial levee construction ability that could protect the arable land from flood. Until that time on most of alluvial land at the lower part of river are remained a wilderness of overgrown with reeds in lacks of techniques to build a large-scale artificial levee along the riverbank. Cultivation processes are progressed in a large scale one by Japanese agricultural companies with [River Rennovation Project] of central government in 1920s. Large scale artificial levees are constructed along the riverbank. Subjectives of cultivation are changed from Korean peasants to Japanese agricultural companies and Korean peasants fell down as a tenant in a colonial situation of that time in Korea. They could not have any voices in planning of spatial structure and decreased their role in planning. Newly cultivated lands are reflected company's intensions, objectives and perspectives for achieving their goals for the sake of colonial power. Newly cultivated lands are planned into a regular Rectangular Block settings of rice paddies and implanted a large scale Bureaucratic-oriented Irrigation System on the cultivated plains. Every settlements are located in the midst of rice paddies with a Central located Cluster type of settlements. [water+land] complex along the canal system are more strengthened. Cultivated space has a characters of [I-IT] landscapes. (4) Artificial levees are connected into a coastal emnankment for a reclamation of broad tidal marshes on the estuaries and inlets of rivers in the colonial times. Subjectives of reclamation are enlarged into a big agricultural companies that could be acted a role as a big cultivator. After that time on most of reclamation project of tidal marshes are controlled by these agricultural companies formed by mostly Japanese capitalists. Reclaimed lands on the estuaries and river inlets are under hands of agricultural companies and all the spatial structures are formed by their intensions, objectives and perspectives. They constructed a Unit Farming Area for the sake of companies. Spatial structures are planned in a regular one with broad arable land for the rice production of rectangular blocks, regular canal systems and tank reservoir for the irrigation water supply into reclaimed lands. There developed a 'Central-located linear type' of settlements in midst of reclaimed land. These settlements are settled in a detail program upon this newly reclaimed land at once with a master plan and they have planned patterns in their distribution, building materials, location, and form. Ecological linkage between Newly settled settlemrnts and its surroundings are lost its colours and became a more artificial one by human-centred environment. [I-IT] landscapes are become more prominant. This region is a destination area of [Origin-Destination] theory model and formed a 'Pioneer Fringe'. It is a kind of pioneer front that could advance or retreat discontinously by physical conditions and socio-cultural conditions of that region.

• Journal of Korean Public Health Nursing
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.118-138
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• 1996

Because of accelerated urbanization public body visiting nursing project that started according as matter of health on urban class in the lower brackets of income was concentrated on Social interests has a unsatisfied points to propel project efficiently from the lack of rating materials. Therefore centering around written contents in documentary literature of citizen health by household in five years from starting year of project to now. visiting frequency by medical manpower was evaluated quantitatively and qualitatively in aspect of management hereupon. for the sake of giving a basic materials for public health project of this field. This research presents documentary literature of citizen health which become materials is that as one person's charged region of nurse in duty scale. district is Kang-Buck Gu. the object is resident in the lower brackets of income grounded livelihood protection law and who is admitted by the head of organ~chief of health care). and the number of material centering around the head of a household is 415 copy. The result of research is summarized. as follow. 1. Average visiting frequency examinated by medical manpower show difference according to valuables of supervision characteristics namely average visiting. Frequency of nurse has long term residence in case registration season is early and supervision season is the first year and is high incase a kind of house is unlicdnsed mountain town. Average visiting frequency with doctor is high incase supervision season is the first year and the medical insurance system is admitted by chief of health care. That shows that a man of discomfort behavior left alone are yet many in local society. The meaning of this result shows that the continuity of official relation about class in the lowest brackets of income of long term residence goes well between househole who is a user of visiting nursing service of the object according to midway income under management influences a given duty of nurse s and so causes quantitative decrease. 2. In case behavier and condition of health that nurse diagnoses are bad. as the type matter is a lack of health and the number of patient is large. the average visiting frequency of nurse is high. because average visiting frequency with doctor is high as the condition of health is bad and the number of patient is large. That is similar with that of nurse. CD Average visiting frequency of nurse s seen by matter of disease is very high only in apoplexy by 39.50 and is confined within limits from 7.63 to 11.36 in other disease. But average visiting frequency with doctor is double as many as that of nurse but defined in apoplexy hypertension and articulate. (1) Average visiting frequency of nurse by existence in inoculation of hepatitis is low by 6.73 in unidentified group and very high by 26.89 in group of non-inoculation and the case of the antigenic positive man of B type hepatitis or epileptic who can't be inoculated shows 13.00 and that even family nursing service is needed to them. That result shows that though one person nurse of local charge has a large scale of duty. as visting nursing service is given a class who has a large demand preferentially by respectively accurate nursing diagnosis. the number of diagnosis service is similar with it. 3. During five years. average visiting frequency of nurse is 10.84 and average visiting frequency with doctor is 76.50 seeing from the official scale of nurse. visiting by household is performed two more per year to the average. Seeing this by type of service. average visiting frequency of nurse is higher in indirectly nursing than in directly nursing and that suggests that at the time of visiting household nurse performs education of protection lively save patient but at the time of contrastedly visiting with doctor. directly nursing is more contents of service show no difference by man power and medication dressing by demand is 14.3 and 18.6 the aid of hardship term of doctor and nurse is high by 18.7 and 17.00 in the request of hospitalization when seeing by demands. 4. Action by turns exemplified 1994 is well in sequence of 2/4 turn. 3/4 turn. 1/4 turn. 4/4 turn. When seen by average visiting frequency of nurse but gradually is even. Without difference by turns. average visiting frequency of doctor is much higher in 1/4 turn than other turns. Type of service by turns is all even but directly nursing is inactive in 4/4 and indirectly nursing. Very increases in 4/4 and so. Nurse's quantity of duty is plentiful that shows that by evaluation of last turn and plan of project. Contents of service follows that medication and dressing is the highest by' 5.57 in 1/4turn. goes down gradually by turn. becomes 3.57 in 3/4 turn. and increases again by 4.83 in 4/4 turn. the rest service is higher in 2/4 turn than other turns. 5. Total visiting frequency of nurse is explained to total $37.5\%$ by six valuables of visiting frequency of doctor. nursing demand. demand of diagnosis. condition of behavior. year. Special terms and magnitude of influential power is the same as sequence of enumerated valuables. Namely. the higher the visiting frequency of doctor. the bigger nursing and demand of diagnosis is. the worse the condition of behavior is. the older the object is and the more the household of special terms is. the high total visiting frequency of nurse is.