• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.36 no.6
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• pp.631-640
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• 2024

In the traditional slope stability analysis, ignoring the spatial variability of slope soil will lead to inaccurate analysis. In this paper, the K-L series expansion method is adopted to simulate random field of soil strength parameters. Based on Random Limit Equilibrium Method (RLEM), the influence of variation coefficient and fluctuation range on reliability of soil slope supported by micro-pile is investigated. The results show that the fluctuation ranges and the variation coefficients significantly influence the failure probability of soil slope supported by micro-pile. With the increase of fluctuation range of soil strength parameters, the mean safety factor of the slope increases slightly. The failure probability of the soil slope increases with the increase of fluctuation range when the mean safety factor of the slope is greater than 1. The failure probability of the slope increases by nearly 8.5% when the fluctuation range is increased from δ_v=2 m to δ_v =8 m. With the increase of the variation coefficient of soil strength parameters, the mean safety factor of the slope decreases slightly, and the probability of failure of soil slope increases accordingly. The failure probability of the slope increases by nearly 31% when the variation coefficient increases from COV_c=0.2, COV_φ=0.05 to COV_c=0.5, COV_φ=0.2.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.61-67
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• 2010

Though "Zero Accident Campaign" is a desirable campaign for industrial accident prevention and reducing victims, the number of industrial enterprises has been decreasing abruptly in recent years. One of the reasons for this phenomenon may be attributed to irrationality of 'target accident-free time periods' established by related organizations. This study was carried out to develop a new rational scheme for the campaign. Therefore, for a numerical basis, Poisson process was introduced, and problems induced by current target periods were analyzed mathematically one by one. As a result, it was verified that current target periods were uneven since the probability that manufacturing plants get them would be different form industry to industry. To develop countermeasures, a brand new method were suggested in this research. The first characteristic was that group classification should be based upon average accident rates resulted from past several years, and the second was that adjustment probability which can make the target acquisition probability even. About the suggested method, a questionnaire survey was conducted. To make a conclusion, most manufacturing plants agreed with the suggested method such high affirmative portion that the suggested method would be expected to help promote the campaign again.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2001.04a
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• pp.102-109
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• 2001

In order to take account of the statistical properties of probability variables used in the structural analysis, the conventional approach using the safety factor based on past experience usually estimated the safety of a structure. The real structures could only be analyzed with the error in estimation of loads, material characters and the dimensions of the members. But the errors should be considered systematically in the structural analysis. Structural safety could not precisely be appraised by the traditional structural design concept. Recently, new approach based on the probability concept has been applied to the assessment of structural safety using the reliability concept. Thus, the computer program by the Probabilistic FEM is developed by incorporating the probabilistic concept into the conventional FEM method. This paper estimated for the reliability of a plane stress structure by Advanced First-Order Second Moment method using von Mises, Tresca and Mohr-Coulomb failure criterions. The reliability index and failure probability of attained by the Monte Carlo Simulation method with the von Mises criterion were same as PFEM, but the Monte Carlo Simulation were very time-consuming. The variance of member thickness and load could influence the reliability and failure probability most sensitively among the design variables from the results of the parameter analysis. And proper failure criterion must be used to design safely.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.53 no.4
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• pp.1146-1156
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• 2021

Single-unit probabilistic safety assessment (SUPSA) has complex Boolean logic equations for accident sequences. Multi-unit probabilistic safety assessment (MUPSA) model is developed by revising and combining SUPSA models in order to reflect plant state combinations (PSCs). These PSCs represent combinations of core damage and non-core damage states of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Since all these Boolean logic equations have complemented gates (not gates), it is not easy to generate exact Boolean solutions. Delete-term approximation method (DTAM) has been widely applied for generating approximate minimal cut sets (MCSs) from the complex Boolean logic equations with complemented gates. By applying DTAM, approximate conditional core damage probability (CCDP) has been calculated in SUPSA and MUPSA. It was found that CCDP calculated by DTAM was overestimated when complemented gates have non-rare events. Especially, the CCDP overestimation drastically increases if seismic SUPSA or MUPSA has complemented gates with many non-rare events. The objective of this study is to suggest a new quantification method named probability subtraction method (PSM) that replaces DTAM. The PSM calculates accurate CCDP even when SUPSA or MUPSA has complemented gates with many non-rare events. In this paper, the PSM is explained, and the accuracy of the PSM is validated by its applications to a few MUPSAs.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.35 no.5
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• pp.30-38
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• 2020

In order to construct a dam, the diversion facility such as cofferdam and a diversion tunnel should be installed in advance. And size of a cofferdam depends on type of a main dam. According to the Korea Dam Design Standard, if the main dam is a concrete dam, design flood of the cofferdam is 1~2 years flood frequency. This means that overflow of the cofferdam occurs one time for 1 or 2 years, therefore, stability of the cofferdam should be secured against any overflow problem. In this study, failure probability analysis for the concrete cofferdam is performed considering the overflow. First of all, limit state function of the concrete cofferdam is defined for overturning, sliding and base pressure, and upstream water levels are set as El. 501 m, El. 503 m, El. 505 m, El. 507 m. Also, after literature investigation research, probabilistic characteristics of various random variables are determined, the failure probability of the concrete cofferdam is calculated using the Monte Carlo Simulation. As a result of the analysis, when the upstream water level rises, it means overflow, the failure probability increases rapidly. In particular, the failure probability is largest in case of flood loading condition. It is considered that the high upstream water level causes increase of the upstream water pressure and the uplift pressure on the foundation. In addition, among the overturning, the sliding and the base pressure, the overturing is the major cause for the cofferdam failure considering the overflow.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.31 no.5
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• pp.360-373
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• 2021

Many sources of uncertainty exist in geotechnical analysis ranging from the material parameters to the sampling and testing techniques. The conventional deterministic stability analysis of a plane failure in rock slope produce a safety factor but not a probability of failure or reliability index. In the conventional slope stability analysis by evaluating the ground uncertainty as an overall safety factor, it is difficult to evaluate the stability of the realistic rock slope in detail. This paper reviews some established probabilistic analysis techniques, such as the MCS, FOSM, PEM, Taylor Series as applied to plane failure of rock slopes in detail. While the Monte - Carlo methods leads to the most accurate calculation of the probability of safety, this method is too time consuming. Therefore, the simplified probability methods could be alternatives to the MCS. In this study, using these simple probability methods, the failure probability estimation of a plane failure in rock slope is presented.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.62-68
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• 2009

Life Cycle Cost(LCC) is adopted to decide the target of safety level in designing suspension bridges. The LCC are evaluated considering two types of uncertainty; aleatory and epistemic. The nine alternative designs of suspension bridge are simulated to decide the safety level which can minimize the LCC. The LCC is calculated through the probability of failure and safety index including the uncertainty. This method results in the useful tool deciding the optimum safety level with minimal LCC as the main design factor.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.57 no.3
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• pp.101-108
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• 2015

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the safety of the small reservoir, which is distributed in a rural area, based on systemic reliability. It has been estimated that safety of respective reservoir the calculation of failure probability for individual reservoirs can evaluate the safety of the reservoir of the study area. The change of safety for watershed could be figured out as that result. Probability of failure was increased from $3.90{\times}10^{-5}$ to $1.35{\times}10^{-4}$ in Naesu-inpyung reservoir, from $1.33{\times}10^{-5}$ to $4.77{\times}10^{-5}$ in Buyeon reservoir and from $4.24{\times}10^{-5}$ to $2.55{\times}10^{-2}$ in Dalakmal respectively. From the results, the collapse of the upper stream reservoir was analyzed qualitatively that may affect the safety of the reservoir on the downstream area.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2001.10a
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• pp.425-431
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• 2001

In order to take account of the statistical properties of probability variables used in the structural analysis, the conventional approach using the safety factor based on past experience usually estimated the safety of a structure. The real structures could only be analyzed with the error in estimation of loads, material characters and the dimensions of the members. But the errors should be considered systematically in the structural analysis. Structural safety could not precisely be appraised by the traditional structural design concept. Recently, new approach based on the probability concept has been applied to the assessment of structural safety using the reliability concept. In this study, safety of structures will estimated by the reliability analysis with commercial structural software that has the tools of nonlinear elastic-plastic 3-D analysis. Experimental test result is compared to results from this research and Coan/sup 1)/ In this paper, AFOSM(Advanced First-Order Second Moment method) is applied with von Mises, Tresca and Mohr-Coulomb failure criterions. The reliability index β and probability of failure P/sub f/ can be obtained by following this practical procedure as judgement a safety of structures and necessity of reinforcing.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.29 no.6C
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• pp.251-258
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• 2009

In this study, the optimum design conditions for embankment construction on soft clay layer improved by soil compaction pile (SCP) are discussed by comparing the practical design method to the reliability design which is based on the loss function and advanced first order second moment (AFOSM) method. The results are summarized as follows; 1) the relationship between safety factor and failure probability becomes heavy exponentially, failure probability decreases rapidly till 1% approximately until safety factor is smaller than 1.2 and after then, failure probability decrease gradually along the increase of the safety factor. The design safety factor of 1.2 may be the critical value that has been established on considering both relationships appropriately, 2) the safety factor of 1.15 at the minimum expected total cost is a little smaller than the design safety factor of 1.2 and the failure probability is about 1%, 3) the sensitivities of the ratio of stress share and the internal friction angle of sand is larger than the variables related the undrained shear strength of soft layer. This result means that the distribution characteristic of n and ${\phi}$ influences on the stability analysis considerably and they should be considered necessarily on stability analysis of embankment on soft layer improved by SCP, 4) new failure points of the input variables at the design safety factor of 1.2(below failure probability of 0.1~0.3%) is far 1~2 times of standard deviation from the initial design values of themselves.