• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.10-19
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• 2011

In order to predict the risk of anthracnose on hot pepper in the future, the projected climate data from SRES A1B scenario in South Korea were used with the modified anthracnose model to calculate Infection Risk (IR), which was to estimate the number of fungicide sprays. Based on daily temperature and precipitation, the anthracnose model resulted in an empirical relationship that IR = (Daily temperature - $16^{\circ}C$) ${\times}$ 0.07 + (Daily precipitation ${\times}$ 0.11). For 135 locations in South Korea, the total number of fungicide sprays needed from 2011 to 2100 was 12,150, indicating a complicated change with an overall increase in anthracnose development in all locations until 2100. In particular, radical changes in anthracnose development were predicted at Yeongdeok, Yeongyang, and Uiseong, whereas gradual changes were predicted at Heongsung, Hamyang and Taean. The eastern counties of Gyeongbuk Province, which ar the major plantation area in these days, would be the place with the highest disease pressure in the future. In addition, the years of 2058, 61, 78 and 2096 will be most severe, requiring 8-11 times of fungicide spraying. The GIS maps show that the mountain areas of Jeonbuk and Chungbuk Province would have the least disease pressure of anthracnose in the future.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.40 no.3
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• pp.191-204
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• 2007

To evaluate the climate change impacts on water resources, this study generates and analyzes the climate change scenarios for 139 sub-basins in Korea using high resolution ($27km\;{\times}\; 27km$) SHES A2 scenario and LARS-WG. The $27km\;{\times}\; 27km$ high resolution NCAR/PSU MM5 scenario is downscaled from 350km horizontal resolution ECHO-G data. The A2 scenario relatively well reproduced Korean spatial precipitation characteristics, but it underestimated the precipitation over the Han River and the Gum River basins. The LARS-WG was selected and evaluated to overcome the limitation of climate model and to create a highly reliable climate scenario. The results show that the monthly mean minimum and maximum temperature and monthly mean precipitation are within ${\pm}20%$ from the observed mean, and ${\pm}50%$ from the standard deviation that represents the generated data are highly reliable. Moreover, the comparison results between observed data and generated data from LARS-WG show that the latter can reflect the regional climate characteristic very well that can not be simulated from the former.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.1-8
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• 2008

The concept of growing degree-days (GDD) is widely accepted as a tool to relate plant growth, development, and maturity to temperature. Information on GDD can be used to predict the yield and quality of several crops, flowering date of fruit trees, and insect activity related to agriculture and forestry. When GDD is expressed on a spatial basis, it helps identify the limits of geographical areas suitable for production of various crops and to evaluate areas agriculturally suitable for new or nonnative plants. The national digital climate maps (NDCM, the fine resolution, gridded climate data for climatological normal years) are not provided on a daily basis but on a monthly basis, prohibiting GDD calculation. We applied a widely used GDD estimation method based on monthly data to a part of the NDCM (for Hapcheon County) to produce the spatial GDD data for each month with three different base temperatures (0, 5, and $10^{\circ}C$). Synthetically generated daily temperatures from the NCDM were used to calculate GDD over the same area and the deviations were calculated for each month. The monthly-data based GDD was close to the reference GDD using daily data only for the case of base temperature $0^{\circ}C$. There was a consistent overestimation in GDD with other base temperatures. Hence, we estimated spatial GDD with base temperature $0^{\circ}C$ over the entire nation for the current (1971-2000, observed) and three future (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100, predicted) climatological normal years. Our estimation indicates that the annual GDD in Korea may increase by 38% in 2071-2100 compared with that in 1971-2000.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.94-101
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• 2008

Warming trends during winter seasons in East Asian regions are expected to accelerate in the future according to the climate projection by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Warmer winters may affect short-term cold hardiness of deciduous fruit trees, and yet phenological observations are scant compared to long-term climate records in the regions. Dormancy depth, which can be estimated by daily temperature, is expected to serve as a reasonable proxy for physiological tolerance of flowering buds to low temperature in winter. In order to delineate the geographical pattern of short-term cold hardiness in grapevines, a selected dormancy depth model was parameterized for "Campbell Early", the major cultivar in South Korea. Gridded data sets of daily maximum and minimum temperature with a 270m cell spacing ("High Definition Digital Temperature Map", HDDTM) were prepared for the current climatological normal year (1971-2000) based on observations at the 56 Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) stations and a geospatial interpolation scheme for correcting land surface effects (e.g., land use, topography, and site elevation). To generate relevant datasets for climatological normal years in the future, we combined a 25km-resolution, 2011-2100 temperature projection dataset covering South Korea (under the auspices of the IPCC-SRES A2 scenario) with the 1971-2000 HD-DTM. The dormancy depth model was run with the gridded datasets to estimate geographical pattern of change in the cold-hardiness period (the number of days between endo- and forced dormancy release) across South Korea for the normal years (1971-2000, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100). Results showed that the cold-hardiness zone with 60 days or longer cold-tolerant period would diminish from 58% of the total land area of South Korea in 1971-2000 to 40% in 2011-2040, 14% in 2041-2070, and less than 3% in 2071-2100. This method can be applied to other deciduous fruit trees for delineating geographical shift of cold-hardiness zone under the projected climate change in the future, thereby providing valuable information for adaptation strategy in fruit industry.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.519-519
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• 2015

2007년 발간된 IPCC의 4차 평가보고서에서 자연재해, 환경, 해양, 농업, 생태계, 보건 등 다양한 부분에 미치는 기후변화의 영향에 대한 과학적 근거들이 제시되면서 기후변화는 현세기 범지구적인 화두로 대두되고 있다. 또한, 기후변화에 의한 지구 온난화는 대규모의 수문순환 과정에서의 변화들과 연관되어 담수자원은 기후변화에 대단히 취약하며 미래로 갈수록 악영향을 받을 것으로 6차 기술보고서에서 제시하고 있다. 특히 우리나라는 지구온난화가 전 지구적인 평균보다 급속하게 진행될 가능성이 높기 때문에 기후변화에 대한 담수자원 취약성이 더욱 클 것으로 예상된다. 따라서 지표수에 용수의존도가 높은 우리나라의 댐 저수지를 대상으로 기후변화에 따른 수환경 변화의 정확한 분석과 취약성 평가는 필수적이다. 본 연구에서는 SRES A1B 시나리오를 적용하여 기후변화가 주암호 저수지의 수환경 변화에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 지역스케일의 미래 기후시나리오 생산을 위해 인공신경망(Artificial Neural Network.,ANN)기법을 적용하여 예측인자(강우, 상대습도, 최고온도, 최저온도)에 대해 강우-유출모형에 적용이 가능한 지역스케일로 통계적 상세화를 수행하였으며, 이를 유역모델에 적용하여 저수지 유입부의 유출량 및 부하량을 예측하였다. 유역 모델의 결과를 토대로 저수지 운영모델에 저수지 유입부의 유출량을 적용하여 미래 기간의 방류량을 산정하였으며, 최종적으로 저수지 모델에 유입량, 유입부하량 및 방류량을 적용하여 저수지 내 오염 및 영양물질 순환 및 분포 예측을 통해서 기후변화가 저수지 수환경에 미치는 영향을 평가하였다. 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 상세기 후전망을 위해서 기후인자의 미래분석 기간은 (I)단계 구간(2011~2040년), (II)단계 구간(2041~2070년), (III) 단계 구간(2071~2100년)의 3개 구간으로 설정하여 수행하였으며, Baseline인 1991~2010년까지의 실측값과 모의 값을 비교하여 검증하였다. 강우량의 경우 Baseline 대비 미래로 갈수록 증가하는 것으로 전망되었으며, 2011년 대비 2100년에서 연강수량 6.4% 증가한 반면, 일최대강수량이 7.0% 증가하는 것으로 나타나 미래로 갈수록 집중호우의 발생가능성이 커질 것으로 예측되었다. 유역의 수문 수질변화 전망도 강수량 증가의 영향으로 주암댐으로 유입하는 총 유량이 Baseline 대비 증가 하였으며, 유사량 및 오염부하량도 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 저수지 수환경 변화 예측결과 유입량이 증가함에 따라서 연평균 체류시간이 감소하였으며, 기온 및 유입수온 상승의 영향으로 (I)단계 구간대비 미래로 갈수록 상층 및 심층의 수온이 상승하는 것으로 나타났다. 연중 수온성층기간 역시 증가하는 것으로 나타났으며, 남조류는 (I)단계 구간 대비 (III)단계 구간으로 갈수록 출현시기가 빨라지며 농도 역시 증가하였다. 또한 풍수년, 평수년에 비해 갈수년에 남조류의 연평균농도 상승폭과 최고농도가 크게 나타나 미래로 갈수록 댐 유입량이 적은 해에 남조류로 인한 피해 발생 가능성이 높아질 것으로 예상된다.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.28 no.5B
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• pp.525-533
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• 2008

Global circulation models (GCMs) have been used to study impact of climate change on water resources for hydrologic models as inputs. Recently, regional circulation models (RCMs) have been used widely for climate change study, but the RCMs have been rarely used in the climate change impacts on water resources in Korea. Therefore, this study is intended to use a set of climate scenarios derived by RegCM3 RCM ($27km{\times}27km$), which is operated by Korea Meteorological Administration. To begin with, the RCM precipitation data surrounding major rainfall stations are extracted to assess validation of the scenarios in terms of reproducing low frequency behavior. A comprehensive comparison between observation and precipitation scenario is performed through statistical analysis, wavelet transform analysis and EOF analysis. Overall analysis confirmed that the precipitation data driven by RegCM3 shows capabilities in simulating hydrological low frequency behavior and reproducing spatio-temporal patterns. However, it is found that spatio-temporal patterns are slightly biased and amplitudes (variances) from the RCMs precipitation tend to be lower than the observations. Therefore, a bias correction scheme to correct the systematic bias needs to be considered in case the RCMs are applied to water resources assessment under climate change.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.28 no.6B
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• pp.665-673
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• 2008

This study is to assess the future potential climate and land use change impact on streamflow and stream water quality of the study watershed using the established model parameters (I). The CCCma (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis) CGCM2 (Canadian Global Coupled Model) based on IPCC SRES (Special Report Emission Scenarios) A2 and B2 scenarios were adopted for future climate condition, and the data were downscaled by Stochastic Spatio-Temporal Random Cascade Model technique. The future land use condition was predicted by using modified CA-Markov (Cellular Automata-Markov chain) technique with the past time series of Landsat satellite images. The model was applied for the future extreme precipitation cases of around 2030, 2060 and 2090. The predicted results showed that the runoff ratio increased 8% based on the 2005 precipitation (1160.1 mm) and runoff ratio (65%). Accordingly the Sediment, T-N and T-P also increased 120%, 16% and 10% respectively for the case of 50% precipitation increase. This research has the meaning in providing the methodological procedures for the evaluation of future potential climate and land use changes on watershed hydrology and stream water quality. This model result are expected to plan in advance for healthy and sustainable watershed management and countermeasures of climate change.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.43-58
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• 2015

The greenhouse gas emission caused by rapid economic growth and population is increasing in Korea. Also, climate change from greenhouse gases emission is accelerated. IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report projects an increase of greenhouse gas emissions by 90% from the year 2000 to 2030(SRES, 2000). Within this context, establishing countermeasures on climate adaptation and mitigation is becoming increasingly important to reduce the negative effect of climate change at a global level. Along with global efforts to tackle climate change, Korean government has incorporated 'Low Carbon Green Growth'strategies into its national policy agenda. Local governments have also conducted a number of studies to devise plans for environmentally friendly and sustainable city development. In this paper, the land-use equilibrium model, which reflects economic and geographical characteristics, is used to analyze the change in residential land use and population density. The target area for study is Jeju island in Korea. With an application of land use equilibrium model, it derived three types of scenarios of the land use change: (1) dispersion scenario-reflecting present-day conditions (2) adaptation scenario-applying adaptation measures to climate change and (3) combined scenario-integrating both adaptation and mitigation measures in model to climate change. By applying dispersion to combined scenario, the general trend shows a downward shift in population density. Subsequently, energy consumption and expected cost associated with casualties were calculated on the basis of the findings of respective scenario. The results show a descending trend in energy consumption and expected casualtie. Therefore, understanding for residential land use and population density of each scenario that analyzed land use equilibrium model in the study is expected to devise a environmental city plan for climate change stabilization and climate adaptation and mitigation.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.157-184
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• 2010

Global climate change is destroying the water circulation balance by changing rates of precipitation, recharge and discharge, and evapotranspiration. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) makes "changes in rainfall pattern due to climate system changes and consequent shortage of available water resource" a high priority as the weakest part among the effects of human environment caused by future climate changes. Groundwater, which occupies a considerable portion of the world's water resources, is related to climate change via surface water such as rivers, lakes, and marshes, and "direct" interactions, being indirectly affected through recharge. Therefore, in order to quantify the effects of climate change on groundwater resources, it is necessary to not only predict the main variables of climate change but to also accurately predict the underground rainfall recharge quantity. In this paper, the authors selected a relevant climate change scenario, In this context, the authors selected A1B from the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) which is distributed at Korea Meteorological Administration. By using data on temperature, rainfall, soil, and land use, the groundwater recharge rate for the research area was estimated by period and embodied as geographic information system (GIS). In order to calculate the groundwater recharge quantity, Visual HELP3 was used as main model for groundwater recharge, and the physical properties of weather, temperature, and soil layers were used as main input data. General changes to water circulation due to climate change have already been predicted. In order to systematically solve problems associated with how the groundwater resource circulation system should be reflected in future policies pertaining to groundwater resources, it may be urgent to recalculate the groundwater recharge quantity and consequent quantity for using via prediction of climate change in Korea in the future and then reflection of the results. The space-time calculation of changes to the groundwater recharge quantity in the study area may serve as a foundation to present additional measures for the improved management of domestic groundwater resources.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.229-241
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• 2006

Global air temperature has risen by $0.6^{\circ}C$ over the last one hundred years due to increased atmospheric greenhouse gases. Moreover, this global warming trend is projected to continue in the future. This study was carried out to evaluate spatial variations in rice production areas by simulating rice-growth and development with projected high resolution climate data in Korea far 2011-2100, which was geospatially interpolated from the 25 km gridded data based on the IPCC SRES A2 emission scenario. Satellite remote sensing data were used to pinpoint the rice-growing areas, and corresponding climate data were aggregated to represent the official 'crop reporting county'. For the simulation experiment, we used a CERES-Rice model modified by introducing two equations to calculate the leaf appearance rate based on the effective temperature and existing leaf number and the final number of leaves based on day-length in the photoperiod sensitive phase of rice. We tested the performance of this model using data-sets obtained from transplanting dates and nitrogen fertilization rates experiments over three years (2002 to 2004). The simulation results showed a good performance of this model in heading date prediction [$R^2$=0.9586 for early (Odaebyeo), $R^2$=0.9681 for medium (Hwasungbyeo), and $R^2$=0.9477 for late (Dongjinbyeo) maturity cultivars]. A modified version of CERES-Rice was used to simulate the growth and development of three Japonica varieties, representing early, medium, and late maturity classes, to project crop status for climatological normal years between 2011 and 2100. In order to compare the temporal changes, three sets of data representing 3 climatological years (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) were successively used to run the model. Simulated growth and yield data of the three Japonica cultivars under the observed climate for 1971-2000 was set as a reference. Compared with the current normal, heading date was accelerated by 7 days for 2011-2040 and 20 days for 2071-2100. Physiological maturity was accelerated by 15 days for 2011-2040 and 30 days for 2071-2100. Rice yield was in general reduced by 6-25%, 3-26%, and 3-25% per 10a in early, medium, and late maturity classes, respectively. However, mid to late maturing varieties showed an increased yield in northern Gyeonggi Province and in most of Kwangwon Province in 2071-2100.