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http://dx.doi.org/10.5532/KJAFM.2011.13.1.010

Impact of Climate Change on Fungicide Spraying for Anthracnose on Hot Pepper in Korea During 2011-2100  

Shin, Jeong-Wook (Department of Biomedical Sciences, Sun Moon University)
Yun, Sung-Chul (Department of Biomedical Sciences, Sun Moon University)
Publication Information
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology / v.13, no.1, 2011 , pp. 10-19 More about this Journal
Abstract
In order to predict the risk of anthracnose on hot pepper in the future, the projected climate data from SRES A1B scenario in South Korea were used with the modified anthracnose model to calculate Infection Risk (IR), which was to estimate the number of fungicide sprays. Based on daily temperature and precipitation, the anthracnose model resulted in an empirical relationship that IR = (Daily temperature - $16^{\circ}C$) ${\times}$ 0.07 + (Daily precipitation ${\times}$ 0.11). For 135 locations in South Korea, the total number of fungicide sprays needed from 2011 to 2100 was 12,150, indicating a complicated change with an overall increase in anthracnose development in all locations until 2100. In particular, radical changes in anthracnose development were predicted at Yeongdeok, Yeongyang, and Uiseong, whereas gradual changes were predicted at Heongsung, Hamyang and Taean. The eastern counties of Gyeongbuk Province, which ar the major plantation area in these days, would be the place with the highest disease pressure in the future. In addition, the years of 2058, 61, 78 and 2096 will be most severe, requiring 8-11 times of fungicide spraying. The GIS maps show that the mountain areas of Jeonbuk and Chungbuk Province would have the least disease pressure of anthracnose in the future.
Keywords
Anthracnose; Climate change; GIS; Hot pepper; Prediction model;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 14  (Citation Analysis)
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