• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.47 no.4
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• pp.182-190
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• 2023

This study proposes a predictive model using XGBoost and SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) to estimate fuel consumption in bulk carriers. Previous studies have also utilized ship engine data and weather data. However, they lacked reliability in predicted results and explanations of variables used in the fuel consumption prediction model implementation. To address these limitations, this study developed a predictive model using XGBoost and SHAP. It provides research background, scope, relevant regulations, previous studies, and research methodology. Additionally, it explains the data cleaning method for bulk carriers and verifies results of the predictive model.

• International journal of advanced smart convergence
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.53-58
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• 2023

With the fast development of artificial intelligence day by day, users are demanding explanations about the results of algorithms and want to know what parameters influence the results. In this paper, we propose a model for bankruptcy prediction with interpretability using the SHAP framework. SHAP (SHAPley Additive exPlanations) is framework that gives a visualized result that can be used for explanation and interpretation of machine learning models. As a result, we can describe which features are important for the result of our deep learning model. SHAP framework Force plot result gives us top features which are mainly reflecting overall model score. Even though Fully Connected Neural Networks are a "black box" model, Shapley values help us to alleviate the "black box" problem. FCNNs perform well with complex dataset with more than 60 financial ratios. Combined with SHAP framework, we create an effective model with understandable interpretation. Bankruptcy is a rare event, then we avoid imbalanced dataset problem with the help of SMOTE. SMOTE is one of the oversampling technique that resulting synthetic samples are generated for the minority class. It uses K-nearest neighbors algorithm for line connecting method in order to producing examples. We expect our model results assist financial analysts who are interested in forecasting bankruptcy prediction of companies in detail.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.241-265
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• 2023

A corporate insolvency prediction model serves as a vital tool for objectively monitoring the financial condition of companies. It enables timely warnings, facilitates responsive actions, and supports the formulation of effective management strategies to mitigate bankruptcy risks and enhance performance. Investors and financial institutions utilize default prediction models to minimize financial losses. As the interest in utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) technology for corporate insolvency prediction grows, extensive research has been conducted in this domain. However, there is an increasing demand for explainable AI models in corporate insolvency prediction, emphasizing interpretability and reliability. The SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) technique has gained significant popularity and has demonstrated strong performance in various applications. Nonetheless, it has limitations such as computational cost, processing time, and scalability concerns based on the number of variables. This study introduces a novel approach to variable selection that reduces the number of variables by averaging SHAP values from bootstrapped data subsets instead of using the entire dataset. This technique aims to improve computational efficiency while maintaining excellent predictive performance. To obtain classification results, we aim to train random forest, XGBoost, and C5.0 models using carefully selected variables with high interpretability. The classification accuracy of the ensemble model, generated through soft voting as the goal of high-performance model design, is compared with the individual models. The study leverages data from 1,698 Korean light industrial companies and employs bootstrapping to create distinct data groups. Logistic Regression is employed to calculate SHAP values for each data group, and their averages are computed to derive the final SHAP values. The proposed model enhances interpretability and aims to achieve superior predictive performance.

• Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.177-192
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• 2023

The employment rate of university graduates has been decreasing significantly recently. With the advent of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the demand for software employment has increased. It is necessary to analyze the factors for software employment of university graduates. This paper proposes explainable software employment model of university graduates using machine learning and explainable AI. The Graduates Occupational Mobility Survey(GOMS) provided by the Korea Employment Information Service is used. The employment model uses boosting machine learning. Then, performance evaluation is performed with four algorithms of boosting model. Moreover, it explains the factors affecting the employment using SHAP. The results indicates that the top 3 factors are major, employment goal setting semester, and vocational education and training.

• Convergence Security Journal
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.101-110
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• 2022

As the cases of using artificial intelligence in various fields increase, attempts to solve various issues through artificial intelligence in the intrusion detection field are also increasing. However, the black box basis, which cannot explain or trace the reasons for the predicted results through machine learning, presents difficulties for security professionals who must use it. To solve this problem, research on explainable AI(XAI), which helps interpret and understand decisions in machine learning, is increasing in various fields. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an explanatory AI to enhance the reliability of machine learning-based intrusion detection prediction results. First, the intrusion detection model is implemented through XGBoost, and the description of the model is implemented using SHAP. And it provides reliability for security experts to make decisions by comparing and analyzing the existing feature importance and the results using SHAP. For this experiment, PKDD2007 dataset was used, and the association between existing feature importance and SHAP Value was analyzed, and it was verified that SHAP-based explainable AI was valid to give security experts the reliability of the prediction results of intrusion detection models.

• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.1331-1336
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• 2023

In text-based fish disease classification using machine learning, there is a problem that the input parameters of the machine learning model are too many, but due to performance problems, the input parameters cannot be arbitrarily reduced. This paper proposes a method of optimizing input parameters specialized for Paralichthys olivaceus disease classification using SHAP analysis techniques to solve this problem,. The proposed method includes data preprocessing of disease information extracted from the halibut disease questionnaire by applying the SHAP analysis technique and evaluating a machine learning model using AutoML. Through this, the performance of the input parameters of AutoML is evaluated and the optimal input parameter combination is derived. In this study, the proposed method is expected to be able to maintain the existing performance while reducing the number of input parameters required, which will contribute to enhancing the efficiency and practicality of text-based Paralichthys olivaceus disease classification.

• The Journal of Bigdata
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.215-229
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• 2020

The interest in machine learning is growing in all industries, but it is difficult to apply it to real-world tasks because of inexplicability. This paper introduces a case of developing a financial customer churn prediction model for a securities company, and introduces the research results on an attempt to develop a machine learning model that can be explained using the SHAP Value methodology and derivation of interpretability. In this study, a total of six customer churn models are compared and analyzed, and the cause of customer churn is inferred through the classification and data analysis of SHAP Value and the type of customer asset change. Based on the results of this study, it would be possible to use it as a basis for comprehensive judgment, such as using the Value of the deviation prediction result that can infer the cause of the marketing manager's actual customer marketing in the future and establishing a target marketing strategy for each customer.

• Journal of Science Education
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• v.47 no.1
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• pp.37-51
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• 2023

This study explored the factors influencing major satisfaction and academic satisfaction of science education major students at the College of Education using machine learning models, random forest, gradient boosting model, and SHAP. Analysis results showed that the performance of the gradient boosting model was better than that of the random forest, but the difference was not large. Factors influencing major satisfaction include 'satisfaction with science teachers in high school corresponding to the subject of one's major', 'motivation for teaching job', and 'age'. Through the SHAP value, the influence of variables was identified, and the results were derived for the group as a whole and for individual analysis. The comprehensive and individual results could be complementary with each other. Based on the research results, implications for ways to support pre-service science teachers' major and academic satisfaction were proposed.

• The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.177-184
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• 2024

In the situation of increasing data at fast speed, we use all kinds of complex ensemble and deep learning algorithms to get the highest accuracy. It's sometimes questionable how these models predict, classify, recognize, and track unknown data. Accomplishing this technique and more has been and would be the goal of intensive research and development in the data science community. A variety of reasons, such as lack of data, imbalanced data, biased data can impact the decision rendered by the learning models. Many models are gaining traction for such interpretations. Now, LIME and SHAP are commonly used, in which are two state of the art open source explainable techniques. However, their outputs represent some different results. In this context, this study introduces a coupling technique of LIME and Shap, and demonstrates analysis possibilities on the decisions made by LightGBM and Keras models in classifying a transaction for fraudulence on the IEEE CIS dataset.

• The Journal of Information Systems
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.21-42
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• 2021

Purpose In order for companies to continue to grow, they should properly manage human resources, which are the core of corporate competitiveness. Employee turnover means the loss of talent in the workforce. When an employee voluntarily leaves his or her company, it will lose hiring and training cost and lead to the withdrawal of key personnel and new costs to train a new employee. From an employee's viewpoint, moving to another company is also risky because it can be time consuming and costly. Therefore, in order to reduce the social and economic costs caused by employee turnover, it is necessary to accurately predict employee turnover intention, identify the factors affecting employee turnover, and manage them appropriately in the company. Design/methodology/approach Prior studies have mainly used logistic regression and decision trees, which have explanatory power but poor predictive accuracy. In order to develop a more accurate prediction model, XGBoost is proposed as the classification technique. Then, to compensate for the lack of explainability, SHAP, one of the XAI techniques, is applied. As a result, the prediction accuracy of the proposed model is improved compared to the conventional methods such as LOGIT and Decision Trees. By applying SHAP to the proposed model, the factors affecting the overall employee turnover intention as well as a specific sample's turnover intention are identified. Findings Experimental results show that the prediction accuracy of XGBoost is superior to that of logistic regression and decision trees. Using SHAP, we find that jobseeking, annuity, eng_test, comm_temp, seti_dev, seti_money, equl_ablt, and sati_safe significantly affect overall employee turnover intention. In addition, it is confirmed that the factors affecting an individual's turnover intention are more diverse. Our research findings imply that companies should adopt a personalized approach for each employee in order to effectively prevent his or her turnover.