• Korean System Dynamics Review
• /
• v.10 no.2
• /
• pp.103-120
• /
• 2009

Using various data derived from the regional innovation projects in the IT and BT-sectors within Chungbuk Province, this study tries to observe formation processes of network connecting structure and their spill-over effects. Considering the dynamic nature of key issues, it applies both social network analysis and causal loop methods. After a series of simulation exercises, we find that so-called extroverted regional innovation projects, that is, ones financially supported by the central government, reveal a higher tendency in the centrality, heavily depending on a handful of well reputed organizations. It is quite similar to the reinforcing mechanism, resulting in the rich-get-richer and the poor-get-poorer. Compared with the existing documents, nonetheless, it shows relatively weak in the mechanism strength, implying the fact that regional innovation projects have significantly contributed to ameliorating the unequal distribution of innovation organizations within Chungbuk Province. On the other hand, this study concludes that all the brokerage organizations related to the regional innovation projects have settled in Chungbuk Province. Whereas the Capital Region-based organizations present a higher tendency in the knowledge-network, it seems that the regional innovation projects have significantly contributed to upgrading direct and indirect competitiveness of the local organizations.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
• /
• v.1 no.2
• /
• pp.149-174
• /
• 2000

In recent years, how to promore the Utilization of Internet is a main issue of national information policy. In this study, we focused our approach to find promoting sttategies for Internet utilization on three sector's users, governments, enterprises, and households. Promoting the Internet utilization of these three sector's users is a very difficult problem, because their information levels are different and information gap among them can be regarded as bottleneck. And since the interactions between user's demands and diverse information seccor's factors are very complex, policy leverages can not find easily. By the system dynamics methodology, this paper examines the interrelationships between three user's demand mechanism and information policy sector. Information policy sector consist of four sectors, infrastruccure policy seccor, application-contents sector, governance sector, and access and price policy sector (free access policy, literacy policy, telecommunication price policy, etc.). To find and investigate policy leverage that will help understanding dynamic behavior of users in using Internet we build a causal loop diagrams and SD models by using survey data obtained from three sectors'specialized users, 488 persons.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
• /
• v.35 no.4
• /
• pp.343-349
• /
• 2011

The forecasting of container volume which is the basis of port logistics facilities expansion has a great influence on development of an port. Based on this importance, various previous studies have presented methodology on container volume forecasting. The results of many previous studies pointed out the limitations of future forecasting based on past container volume and emphasized that more various factors should be considered to compensate this. Taking notice of this point, this study forecasted future container volume by using ARIMA model, time series analysis and System Dynamics (SD) method, a dynamic analysis technique and performed the comparative review with the forecast of the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime affairs. Recently with rapid changes in economic and social environment, the non-linear change tendency for forecasting container traffic is presented as a new alternative to the country.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
• /
• v.13 no.2
• /
• pp.47-71
• /
• 2012

The purpose of this research is the examination of validity of data as well as simulation model, i.e. to simulate the real data in the SD model with the least error using the adjustments for the faithful reflection of real data to the simulation. In general, SD programs (e.g. VENSIM) utilize the Euler or Runge-Kutta method as an algorithm. It is possible to reflect the trend of real data via these two estimation methods however can cause the validity problem in case of the simulation requiring the accuracy as they have endogenous errors. In this article, the future population estimated by the Korea National Statistical Office (KNSO) to 2050 is simulated by the aging chain model, dividing the population into three cohorts, 0-14, 15-64, 65 and over cohorts by age and offering the adjustments to them. Adjustments are calculated by optimization with three different methods, optimization in EXCEL, manual optimization with iterative calculation, and optimization in VENSIM DSS, the results are compared, and at last the optimal adjustment set with the least error are found among them. The simulation results with the pre-determined optimal adjustment set are validated by methods proposed by Barlas (1996) and other alternative methods. It is concluded that the result of simulation model in this research has no significant difference from the real data and reflects the real trend faithfully.

• Proceedings of the Korea Society for Simulation Conference
• /
• 2001.10a
• /
• pp.50-59
• /
• 2001

Since 1998, government-led Korean venture business boom now proceeds into the stage of market-oriented venture business growth. At such a moment, this research is to clarify the relations between the Critical Success Factors of Korean venture businesses, based on domestic and foreign literature surveys and inquiry surveys over domestic venture capitalists. This research starts from the necessity to overcome the limits of the existing researches by uni-dimensional Korean venture businesses and to manifest the multi-dimensional relations between the success factors from the various viewpoints. And this research adopts System-Dynamics methodology to manifest and utilize relations among those factors, avoiding the existing metrical approaches. This research can be called a new approach to the current ecosystems of Korean venture in which whether venture businesses in Korea succeed is considered to depend on the list on the stock market. For this, this research implemented verification analysis through the simulations of each factor at various levels to build causality map which clarifies the causality of success factors of venture businesses through the System-Dynamics methodology and to utilize it as a way of support to decision-making of venture businesses. This research will be able to suggest the reactions depending on various internal and external situations. This research tried to manifest the causality map of each factor on the basis of inquiry surveys and literature surveys to clarify Feedback among each factor by the SD methodology and simulate it. This research will be a basis to establish the chance to bolster up the still fragile probing research into success factors of substructure of venture businesses through the suggestion of possibility as an efficient analysis framework via the verification of SD methodology and the utilization of results of this research.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
• /
• v.14 no.1
• /
• pp.5-29
• /
• 2013

This study tries to measure the direct and indirect effects of the Regional Strategic Industry (RSI) promotion projects in Chungbuk Province in Korea. In specific, it critically examines whether there exists policy consistency and connectivity between the hardware-oriented Stage I (2002~2007) and the software-centered Stage II (2008~2012) RSI promotion projects. Applying System Dynamics (SD) techniques, this study examines complex system characteristics of RSI promotion projects, all of which have been derived from the causal and stock-flow models and their simulated results. Major findings are as follows: Firstly, 'the continuous investment' is regarded as the most crucial policy leverage for the strategic industry promotion and regional economic growth. Secondly, without exceptions, the RSI promotion projects should switch their evaluation criteria to performance-oriented ones. Thirdly, in selecting their subprojects, the RSI promotion projects should pay due attention to evaluating technology value and marketability. Fourthly, it should put policy priority in strengthening cluster networking and interconnectivity among projects, inevitably supporting a selective number of virtuous network systems. Fifthly, auxiliary projects such as marketing, technology aid, and knowledge-based services should not be overlooked.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
• /
• 2013.01a
• /
• pp.539-545
• /
• 2013

Although individual-level factors (e.g., attitudes, personality) have long been associated with day-to-day attendance decisions, increasingly researchers have recognized "the social nature of attendance dynamics and their susceptibility to social control (Johns, 2008)." Implications of this social approach for research would be to focus attention on the causes and effects of absence culture (i.e., absence-related perceptions, beliefs, values), and the effects of absence culture on individual and group attendance within social units. Construction projects typically require workers to work in teams or crews on highly interdependent projects, and, thus, are particularly relevant contexts to study absence culture. In this paper we apply a system dynamics (SD) model to study absence culture by utilizing the advantages of SD in capturing a feedback process and state changes. We were particularly interested in: (a) the awareness of social norms within construction crews that pertained to attendance, (b) the interplay between formal attendance rules (policy) and these social norms, and (c) how these sources of influence affected the decision-making process of construction crew members. We expect that the results of this work will help construction organizations evaluate (or re-consider) the effects of their attendance control policies (e.g., timing, strength, and frequency) within a social context. Moreover, our findings suggest that the key to reducing excessive absences might be to invest time in influencing absence culture directly rather than imposing frequent and strict regulations - which, in turn, may inadvertently fortify a culture that works against the organization's interests.

• Proceedings of the Korean System Dynamics Society
• /
• 2002.02a
• /
• pp.43-63
• /
• 2002

IT 기업과 같이 그들이 보유한 지식이 수익 창출의 근원이 되는 기업들은 개인의 경험들을 조직의 지식으로 변환하고, 보존하여 그들의 구성원들이 이러한 지식을 활용할 수 있도록 하기 위해 많은 노력을 기울이고 있다. 지식 경영의 중요성을 강조하는 많은 선행연구들은 이러한 활동이 조직 학습을 가속화시키며, 경쟁력을 강화시킴으로써 시장 변화에 대한 대응능력을 강화시킬 수 있음을 강조한다. 그러나 구성원들의 가용 시간이 곧 생산을 위한 투입 요소가 되는 IT기업에 있어서 지식관리활동은 조직 구성원들이 수익 창출을 위한 업무수행 시간을 할애해야 하고 동시에 비용을 발생시키는 딜레마를 안고 있다. 이러한 이유로 IT기업의 경우 시간과 재원의 배분은 전사 적 전략수립에 있어서 매우 중요한 정책 결정이 됨에도 불구하고 이제까지 이를 종합적인 시각에서 이해하고자 하는 연구는 그리 많지 않았다. 본 논문은 한 IT기업의 사례를 통해 비재무적 자산인 지식을 효과적으로 관리하고 이를 통하여 재무적 성과를 극대화하기 위한 시스템 다이내믹스 모델의 전략적 활용방안을 모색해 보았다. 이러한 시도는 경영자를 비롯한 의사결정 자들이 지식의 동태성과 이에 영향을 미치는 여러 영향요인들에 대한 단선적인 이해를 벗어나 종합적인 견지에서 기업이 보유한 지식의 구조와 행태를 이해하는데 도움이 될 것이며 이를 통하여 기업의 지식관리 전략 수립의 기초를 제공해 줄 것이다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
• /
• 2002.05a
• /
• pp.804-808
• /
• 2002

A strategic decision making needs a sound process modeling to find out the right path of organizational changes; however, dynamic feedback processes involved in a real world business, make it difficult to predict the outcomes of strategic decisions. In this paper, we present a conceptual framework to facilitate strategic decision making process for organizational changes. The framework, which employs the concepts of analytic network process (ANP) and system dynamics (SD), can be used to prioritize various projects under consideration and to make a long-term strategic plan in a constructive manner.

• Proceedings of KOSOMES biannual meeting
• /
• 2004.05b
• /
• pp.29-34
• /
• 2004

Ship is bring operated under a highly dynamic environments and many factors are related whit marine accident and those factors are interacting. An analysis on the marine accident is very important to prepare countermeasures which will ensure the safe navigation This paper aims to build a model of the rouses and improved policy for marine accident using SD(System Dynamics) approach and to measure a effect which is risk control countermeasures of marine accident The methodology of this paper is to perform the causes and improved policy for marine accident using Brainstorming method, and was to changed by quantitutive, qualitative factors and their feedback loops in casual map. This model was performed over 23 years($1997\~2020$) in a standard simulation model and 4 policy simulation models.