• Title/Summary/Keyword: Runs Theory

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Evaluation of Droughts in Seoul Using Two-Dimensional Drought Frequency Analysis (이차원 가뭄빈도해석을 통한 서울지역의 가뭄 평가)

  • Yeon, Je-Mun;Byun, Sung-Ho;Lee, Jung-Kyu;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.335-343
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    • 2007
  • Drought characteristics need to be preceded before establishing a drought mitigation plan. In this study, using a Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), a hydrologic drought was defined as an event during which the SPIs are continuously below a certain truncation level. Then, a methodology of drought frequency analysis was performed to quantitatively characterize droughts considering drought duration and severity simultaneously. The theory of runs was used to model drought recurrence and to determine drought properties like duration and severity. Short historical records usually do not allow reliable bivariate analyses. However, more than hundred years of precipitation data (1770 ${\sim}$ 1907) collected in Chosun Kingdom Age using an old Korean rain gage called Chukwooki can provide valuable information about past events. It is shown that a bivariate gamma distribution well represented the joint probabilistic properties of Korean drought duration and severity. The overall results of this study show that the proposed bivariate drought frequency analysis overcomes the drawbacks of the conventional univariate frequency analysis by providing a consistent representation of the drought recurrent property.

Quantitative Characterization of Historical Drought Events in Korea - Focusing on Drought Frequency Analysis in the Five Major Basins - (우리나라 과거 가뭄사상의 정량적 특성 분석 -5대강 유역의 가뭄빈도분석을 중심으로-)

  • Lee, Joo-Heon;Jang, Ho-Won;Kim, Jong-Suk;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.12
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    • pp.1011-1021
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    • 2015
  • This study aims to investigate droughts from the magnitude perspective based on the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and the theory of runs applicable to quantitative analysis of drought in South Korea. In addition, the dry spell analysis was conducted on the drought history in the five major river basins of South Korea to obtain the magnitude, duration and severity of drought, and the quantitative evaluation has been made on historical droughts by estimating the return period using the SDF (Severity-Duration-Frequency) curve gained through drought frequency analysis. The analysis results showed that the return periods for droughts at the regional and major river basin scales were clearly identified. The return periods of severe drought that occurred around the major river basins in South Korea turn out to be mostly 30 to 50 years with the years of the worst drought in terms of severity being 1988 and 1994. In particular, South Korea experienced extremely severe droughts for two consecutive years during the period between 1994 and 1995. Drought in 2014 occurred in the Han River basin and was evaluated as the worst one in terms of severity and magnitude.

Process Fault Probability Generation via ARIMA Time Series Modeling of Etch Tool Data

  • Arshad, Muhammad Zeeshan;Nawaz, Javeria;Park, Jin-Su;Shin, Sung-Won;Hong, Sang-Jeen
    • Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
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    • 2012.02a
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    • pp.241-241
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    • 2012
  • Semiconductor industry has been taking the advantage of improvements in process technology in order to maintain reduced device geometries and stringent performance specifications. This results in semiconductor manufacturing processes became hundreds in sequence, it is continuously expected to be increased. This may in turn reduce the yield. With a large amount of investment at stake, this motivates tighter process control and fault diagnosis. The continuous improvement in semiconductor industry demands advancements in process control and monitoring to the same degree. Any fault in the process must be detected and classified with a high degree of precision, and it is desired to be diagnosed if possible. The detected abnormality in the system is then classified to locate the source of the variation. The performance of a fault detection system is directly reflected in the yield. Therefore a highly capable fault detection system is always desirable. In this research, time series modeling of the data from an etch equipment has been investigated for the ultimate purpose of fault diagnosis. The tool data consisted of number of different parameters each being recorded at fixed time points. As the data had been collected for a number of runs, it was not synchronized due to variable delays and offsets in data acquisition system and networks. The data was then synchronized using a variant of Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) algorithm. The AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was then applied on the synchronized data. The ARIMA model combines both the Autoregressive model and the Moving Average model to relate the present value of the time series to its past values. As the new values of parameters are received from the equipment, the model uses them and the previous ones to provide predictions of one step ahead for each parameter. The statistical comparison of these predictions with the actual values, gives us the each parameter's probability of fault, at each time point and (once a run gets finished) for each run. This work will be extended by applying a suitable probability generating function and combining the probabilities of different parameters using Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST). DST provides a way to combine evidence that is available from different sources and gives a joint degree of belief in a hypothesis. This will give us a combined belief of fault in the process with a high precision.

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Consumption Desire Reflected in Animation -Focused on Animation 'Wellbuying Shop' (애니메이션에 반영 된 소비욕망 -'Wellbuying Shop 1' 애니메이션을 중심으로)

  • Park, Sung-Won
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.6 no.11
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    • pp.154-160
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    • 2006
  • This study is performance thesis to examine structure of excessive consuming culture of modern people's desire turning away from modern people's original purpose of aiming life that is well-being. Method of the research is theological examination of people's desire into consuming and well-being culture is critically analyzed by creation of meanings and differences of showcase that symbolize consuming culture. Also my piece of work 'Well-buying Shop 1' that above theory is applied is selected for focused analysis of concept realization method in video configuration method and technique. The symbol Showcase in the animation represent laboratory of consuming culture and desire for ownership. The animation runs for 3 minutes and 50 seconds focused on animal characters raised in well-being farm. Through cut out animating environment, animal characters have life in the animation and they are completed with long take method and temperament editing type for effort of liberal devotion between audience and the animation. Lithographic technique is used for characters and background images for trial of pictural density by pressures and variety of colors. This study was conducted with the basis of above animation showing opportunity and it has significance on trial of various color of lithographic expression technique that are not commonly used in animation image production.

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Evaluation of the future agricultural drought severity of South Korea by using reservoir drought index (RDI) and climate change scenarios (저수지 가뭄지수와 기후변화 시나리오를 이용한 우리나라 미래 농업가뭄 평가)

  • Kim, Jin Uk;Lee, Ji Wan;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.6
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    • pp.381-395
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to predict agricultural reservoir storage rate (RSR) in a month. This algorithm was developed by multiple linear regression model (MLRM) which included the past 3 months RSRs data and the future climate change scenarios. In order to improve use of predicted RSR, this study need the severe criteria in terms of drought. So, the predicted RSR was indexed as the 3 months reservoir drought index (RDI3) and then it was disaggregated into drought duration, severity, and intensity. For the future RSR estimation by climate change scenarios, the 6 RCP 8.5 scenarios of HadGEM2-ES, CESM1-BGC, MPI-ESM-MR, INM-CM4, FGOALS-s2, and HadGEM3-RA were used in three future evaluation periods (S1: 2011~2040, S2: 2041~2070, S3: 2071~2099). The future S3 period of HadGEM2-ES scenario which has the biggest increase in precipitation and temperature showed the largest decrease to 60.2% among the 6 scenarios compared to the historical RSR (1976~2005) 77.3%. In contrast, INM-CM4 scenario which has smallest changes in precipitation and temperature in S3 period showed the smallest decrease to 72.8%. For the CESM1-BGC and MPI-ESM-MR, FGOALS-s2, and HadGEM3-RA, the S3 period RSR showed 72.6%, 72.6%, 67.4%, and 64.5% decrease respectively. The future severe drought condition of RDI3 below -0.25 showed the increase trend for the number and severity up to -2.0 during S3 period.

Ecosysteme de I′Etang de Berre (Mediterranee nord-occidentale) : Caracteres Generales Physiques, Chimiques et Biologiques

  • Kim, Ki-Tai
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.247-258
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    • 2004
  • Climatological, hydrological and planktonical research studies, measurements of primary production and photosynthetic efficiency from December 1976 to December 1978 have been carried out in two brackish lakes: Lake Etang de Berre and Lake Etang de Vaine located in the French Mediterranean coast, in the region of Carry-le-Rouet located on the north-west Mediterranean near Marseilles, and in fresh water inflows from 4 Rivers (Touloubre, Durance, Arc, Durancole) to Lake Etang de Berre. Physico-chemical parameters were measured for this study: water temperature, salinity, density, pH, alcalinity, dissolved oxygen (% saturation), phosphate, nitrate, nitrite, silicate etc. Diverse biological parameters were also studied: photosynthetic pigments, phaeopigments, specific composition and biomass of phytoplankton, primary pelagic production etc. Climatical factors were studied: air-temperature, solar-radiation, evaporation, direction (including strength) of winds, precipitation and freshwater volume of the four rivers. The changes in Lake ‘Etang de Berre’ ecosystem depend on the quality of the water in the Durance River, and on the effects of seawater near the entrance of the Caronte Canal. The water quality of the lake varies horizontally and vertically as a result of atmospheric phenomena, maritime currents and tides. The distribution of water temperatures is generally heterogeneous. Southeasterly winds and the Northeasterly Mistral wind are important in the origins of circulated and mixed water masses. These winds are both frequent and strong. They have, as a result, a great effect on the water environment of Lake Etang de Berre. In theory, the annual precipitation in this region is well over eight times the water mass of the lake. The water of the Durance River flows into Lake Etang de Berre through the EDF Canal, amounting to 90% of the precipitation. However, reduction of rainfall in dry seasons has a serious effect on the hydrological characteristics of the lake. The temperature in the winter is partially caused by the low temperature of fresh water, particularly that of the Durance River. The hydrological season of fresh and brackish water is about one month ahead of the hydrological season of sea water in its vicinity. The salinity of Lake Etang de Berre runs approximately 3$\textperthousand$, except at lower levels and near the entrance to the Caronte Canal. However, when the volume of the Durance River water is reduced in the summer and fall, the salinity rises to 15$\textperthousand$. In the lake, the ratio of fresh water to sea water is six to one (6:1). The large quantities of seston conveyed by rivers, particularly the Durance diversion, strongly reduce the transparency in the brackish waters. Although the amount of sunshine is also notable, transparency is slight because of the large amount of seston, carried chiefly by Tripton in the fresh water of the Durance River. Therefore, photosynthesis generally occurs only in the surface layer. The transparency progressively increases from freshwater to open seawater, as mineral particles sink to the bottom (about 1.7kg $m^{-2}a^{-1}$ on the average in brackish lakes). The concentration of dissolved oxygen and the rate of oxygen saturation in seawater (Carry-le-Rouet) ranged from 5.0 to 6.0 $m\ell$ㆍ.$1^{-1}$, and from 95 to 105%, respectively. The amount of dissolved oxygen in Etang de Berre oscillated between 2.9 and 268.3%. The monographs of phosphate, nitrate, nitrite and silicate were published as a part of a study on the ecology of phytoplankton in these environments. Horizontal and vertical distributions of these nutriments were studied in detail. The recent diversion of the Durance River into Lake Etang de Berre has effected a fundamental change in this formerly marine environment, which has had a great impact in its plankton populations. A total of 182 taxa were identified, including 111 Bacillariophyceae, 44 Chlorophyceae, and 15 Cyanophyceae. The most abundant species are small freshwater algae, mainly Chlorophyceae. The average density is about $10^{8}$ cells $1^{-1}$ in Lake Etang de Berre, and about double that amount in Lake Etang de Vaine. Differences in phytoplankton abundance and composition at the various stations or at various depths are slight. Cell biovolume V (equivalent to true biomass), plasma volume VP (‘useful’ biomass) and, simultaneously. the cell surface area S and S/V ratio through the measurement of cell dimensions were computed as the parameters of phytoplankton productivity and metabolism. Pigment concentrations are generally very high on account of phytoplankton blooms by Cyanophyceae, Chlorophyceae and Cryptophyceae. On the other hand, in freshwaters and marine waters, pigment concentrations are comparatively low and stable, showing slight annual variation. The variations of ATP concentration were closely related to those of chlorophyll a and phytoplankton blooms only in marine waters. The carbon uptake rates ranged between 38 and 1091 mg$Cm^{-2}d^{-1}$, with an average surface value of 256 mg; water-column carbon-uptake rates ranged between 240 and 2310 mg$Cm^{-2}d^{-1}$, with an average of 810, representing 290 mg$Cm^{-2}$, per year 45 000 tons per year of photosynthetized carbon for the whole lake. Gross photosynthetic production measured by the method of Ryther was studied over a 2-year period. The values obtained from marine water(Carry-le-Rouet) ranged from 23 to 2 337 mg$Cm^{-2}d^{-1}$, with a weighted average of 319, representing about 110 gCm$^{-2}$ per year. The values in brakish water (Etang de Berre) ranged from 14 to 1778 mg$Cm^{-2}d^{-1}$, with a weighted average of 682, representing 250 mg$Cm^{-2}$ per year and 38 400 tons per year of photosynthesized carbon for the whole lake.

A Study on Cost Division Scheme Using Shapley Value for Integrated Watershed Management Planning for Anyang-cheon, Korea (Shapley Value를 이용한 안양천 유역 통합관리 계획에 따른 비용분담방안의 연구)

  • Song, Yang-Hoon;Yoo, Jin-Chae;Kong, Ki-Seo;Kim, Mi-Ok;An, So-Eun
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.3-19
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    • 2010
  • Anyang-cheon(stream) runs through southern metropolitan area of Seoul to Han-river in Korea. Due to fast growth of Seoul, the water quality and quantity problems in Anyang-cheon have occurred. To cope with the problems, the Integrated Watershed Management program for Anyang-cheon was adopted and a KRW 26.1 billion (USD 21.8 million) pilot project (construction of 4 facilities such as reservoir) is suggested for 4 sub-watersheds of Anyang-cheon, which cost will be shared by the 12 local governments (LG). Three cost division schemes are compared. By Scheme 1, if the cost is borne by the LG in a watershed where the facilities are constructed (no cost division scheme), the LG in I is to bear 0.58% of the total construction cost, LG in watershed II 29.54%, LG in IV 0%, LG in V 69.88%. In particular, LG in IV in this scheme bears no cost because no facility is constructed, even though watershed IV is the major beneficiary of the facility construction. Scheme 2 is to share the cost by length of streams in each sub-watershed and the suggested cost share for each sub-watershed is 13.76% by I, 7.34% by II, 45.87% by IV, and 33.03% by V. However, this cost division scheme is fair only under the false assumption that the bargaining powers of group of LGs are identical. To suggest a better and fair division rule, Shapley Value, a cooperative game solution, is used to suggest Scheme 3. In Scheme 3, Shapley Value measures the summation of average marginal contribution of each player in all possible coalitions as cost division scheme and is known to provide a fair division considering bargaining power. In the context of Anyang-cheon, LGs in upper stream have superior bargaining position. The result suggests the cost division is fair under Scheme 3, when the cost shares are 0.29% by I, 14.77% by II, 50% by IV, and 34.94% by V, respectively.

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Development of a Dynamic Offtracking Model on Horizontal Curve Sections (Based on Articulated Vehicles) (도로 평면곡선부에서 동적궤도이탈모형 개발에 관한 연구 (굴절차량을 중심으로))

  • 최재성;김우현
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.115-128
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    • 2002
  • Dislike the tangent sections, the horizontal curve sections of roads should be designed, considering several factors : one of such factors is widening. In other words, since widening results from that when a vehicle runs on the horizontal curve sections, the rear wheels of the vehicle run not along with tracks of the front wheels but out of that, such offtracking should be exactly investigated and reflected in design of the curve sections. Especially in the case of industrial roads which semi-trailers and large trucks run frequently or arterial roads with small curve radiuses in mountainous regions. serious offtracking Phenomenons result in increasing the risk of accidents. decreasing the capacities and jeopardizing pedestrians' safety on the curve sections. For the offtracking, widening amounts of roads has been determined under the traditional presumption that vehicles run at a low speed and there is no superelevation. In fact, however, since the vehicles run at a high speed as well as at a low speed and the superelevation is installed on the horizontal curve sections in the structural aspect of roads, the existing standards for installing widening have a limitation to reflect exactly actual Phenomenons. In particular, for articulated wheel axles of a tractor and a trailer and long articulated vehicles, not only the offtracking degree is very high but also the interpretation shows different aspects from one of single axles. Comparing and reviewing the results of Korean and foreign studies related to the trailer offtracking model theory and the standards for installing widening, this study developed a realistic dynamic offtracking model which considers geometric structures of roads and speeds of vehicles, suggested how to measure widening with this model and examined applicability of the model. The findings of this study are as follows ; First. a dynamic offtracking model. which considers dynamic movements of a tractor and a trailer and the superelevation, was developed. Second, a new method to measure widening with the developed dynamic offtracking model was developed and a method to measure widening with swept path width was suggested as well. Finally, validity of the current standards for installing widening was examined by determining actual offtracking and widening amounts with the developed model and the applicability was investigated through the case studies. Compared with the existing offtracking models, the dynamic offtracking model developed in this study can reflect practically vehicle speed. dimension and geometric structural aspects of roads. In conclusion, the meaning of this study is that it reviews validity of the current standards for installing widening and provides a base to establish such standards by suggesting new methods to measure the widening with this dynamic offtracking model.

A Study on Development of Energy Education Materials for Middle School Students (중학교용 에너지 교육 자료 개발 연구)

  • 최돈형;이양락
    • Hwankyungkyoyuk
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.46-87
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    • 1994
  • Our country has been consuming a huge amount of energy in the course of industrialization and its demand is expected to increase enormously in the future. However, the deposits of energy resources are so limited that the settlement of energy problem comes up the essential subject. To solve the energy problem, it is requested that new resources to gain energy stably should be developed and also energy should be economized and used effectively. The effective use of energy and an the wisdom of economy in energy are requested to everybody and these things should be habitualized from very young age through education. Nevertheless, almost every school in our country hasn’t been concerned about energy education. Even though they have a concern, they are very short of the energy education materials and the quality of the materials is not so good. Therefore it is very meaningful to the settlement of energy problem of the country to make the students who will lead our country to make the students who will lead our country in the future realize the seriousness of energy problem and to provide them the necessary knowledge and methods to solve this problem so that they practice those things in everyday life. Having these necessities, this research, supported by The Korea Energy Management Corporation(KEMCO), was performed for 8 months from April 17, 1994 to December 17, 1994. Many peoples participated in this study such as 30 staffs of researchers and authors, 5 staffs of photographers and illustrators, and 3 VCR program producers developing an energy education material set for middle school students that includes a printed material for student, a diskette for computer simulation, a teacher's guidebook, VCR material and its guidebook. The following main development direction was established : First, the material for student should be consisted of units that let students know the seriousness of energy problem. Second, the focus should be put on the necessary method and practice to economize energy actually in real life based on the basic knowledge learned in elementary school. Third, material for student should be consisted of modules to be student activity-oriented teaching-learning rather than lecture-oriented one. The activity, to maximize student's interests, should be presented in various forms such as experiments, investigation, play, data interpretation, computer simulation, visits, expression and appreciation, etc. To develop the energy education materials for middle school students, a research plan was made first. After literature review about domestic and foreign energy education materials, several research trips home and abroad, and discussion meetings, the basic theory of energy education such as the principle, objective, contents, teaching-learning method, and evaluation method was established. Material for student was developed through the following procedures : The activities in the existing energy education materials were analysed and were divided into four categories related to energy using places of home, school, community, and country, and which were again divided into three categories related to time of past, present, and future, Considering these division, nine modules which are structure units of material for student were chosen, Each module comprises 2-4 activities. Totally 31 activities were designed in this way. The syllabi were made out for each activity and writing was asked for to experts related to each activity after several discussions and revision. To complement the draft, another several discussions and revision were also made on it and then pictures and illustrations were asked for. All these procedures complete the material for student, titled ; Energy Inquiry of Middle School Students', which totals 129 pages and is all in color. As the manuscript of material for student was fixed, writing for teacher's guidebook was asked for to the same writers. The draft of teacher's guidebook was also complemented through the several concentrated works and discussions. Teacher's guidebook focused on the teaching-learning principle and methods of energy education and on the concrete instruction cases for effective instruction of material for student. It is organized with two parts : the one is 'general outline' which introduces theoretical contents and the other is 'details' which are practically helpful to teaching-learning. It is totally 131 pages including both 'general outline' and 'details'. The VCR material and its guidebook consist of contents that cultivate the good attitude trying to economize energy and raise student's interests with a purpose of strong motivation to recognize the necessity of economy and practice it. After establishing development direction of VCR material through discussion meetings and research trips, its script was made by relevant experts. Then the script was also reviewed two times. The drafted VCR material made by a video material developing expert was examined and modified by previews twice. After completion of VCR material, the VCR guidebook was made. All these procedures led to the development of VCR material which runs 20 minutes in VHS type. The VCR guidebook shows a production purpose of the program, structure of contents, evaluation methods, and contents of the program in detail to give help to instructors when they use this VCR material, When these energy education materials are used, it is desirable that the VCR material should be presented first to induce student's motive, and then material for student is introduced Since the material for student is composed of activity-oriented modules and each module is independent one another in general, and each activity is, too. the necessary module or activity can be chosen and utilized in any order according to school or class conditions. This energy education materials will contribute to the development of student's ability to solve energy problem in everyday life and teacher's ability to teach the fundamental knowledge and method in solving energy problem.

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An Examination on the Origin of Stone Pagodas of the Silla Kingdom (신라석탑(新羅石塔)의 시원(始源) 고찰(考察))

  • Nam, Si Jin
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.154-169
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    • 2009
  • Korea is famous for a number of stone pagodas. In particular, it is noticeable that the stone pagodas came after wooden pagodas in all the Kingdoms of Goguryeo, Baekje, and Silla. Since the advent of wooden pagodas, it was during the latter half period of Three Kingdoms(especially, in the early Seventh century) that the first stone pagoda appeared at Mireuksa Temple site in imitation of the wooden ones. Now that no one can deny that Korean stone pagodas have developed, imitating the wooden pagodas. It is also obvious that the Stone Pagoda at Mireuksa site is the prototype of Korean stone pagodas. However, this study casts doubt on the theory that the stone pagodas in the Silla Kingdom originated not from the wooden pagodas, but from the brick pagodas, whereas the stone pagodas in Baekje Kingdom which has been said to come from the wooden ones. The fact that the temples and pagodas in both Baekje and Silla were erected by the same builders and technicians is one of the evidences supporting the assertion of the study. This study, accordingly, examines on the origin of the Silla pagodas by supposing the two genealogies. The first one can be summarized in chronological order as follows: starting from wooden pagodas, Stone Pagoda at Mireuksa site, Stone Pagoda at Jungrimsa site, Stone Pagoda at Gameunsa site, and Stone Pagoda at Goseonsa site. The second one, on the other hand, runs as follows: starting from bick pagodas, Stone Pagoda at Bunhwangsa, Uiseong Tapri five-storied Stone Pagoda, Seonsan Jukjang-ri five-storied Stone Pagoda, and Seonsan Naksan-ri three-storied Stone Pagoda in order. As the above genealogies show, the origin of the stone pagodas has been an controversy, especially because of the two different points of view: the one is that the roof-supporting strata(Okgaesuk-Bachim) originated from the brick structure and the ancient tomb ceiling of Goguryeo Kingdom, and the other is that the strata is a sort of the simplified design of the wooden roof structure. This study, however, takes note of the difference in length of the strata between the brick pagodas and the stone pagodas; the former stretches out its strata longer than the latter. Consequently, the study points out that the roof-supporting strata of the stone pagodas is originally a sort of modification of the wooden roof structure.