• 산업기술연구
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• 제21권B호
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• pp.223-232
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• 2001

This study is finding the most appropriate model of kangwondo watershed. To synthesize each hydrograph, It is found to several parameters which are used in existing hydrographes. then the synthestic hydrograph is compared and investigated with many hydrographes of the rivers in kanwondo. These methods, Nakayasu, Clark, SCS are used to calculate the run-off of this watershed. When the calculated run-off is compared with real rating-curves, then it is found that the SCS method using the Clark's concentrantion time is the best way on this area having large watershed, long river length and gentle water slope, the Nakayasu method is more suitable on this area having small watershed, short river length and steep water slope. Also it is founded from analyzing run-off hydrographes, peak run-off and peak time that the Clark's method applied Kirpich's concentration time way is suitable in the area of kangwondo.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방재학회 2008년도 정기총회 및 학술발표대회
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• pp.755-758
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• 2008

Currently, the increased run-off and the shortened arrival time are one of the causes of the city environmental disasters in urbanization. Therefore, it is necessary to properly design the hydrologic structures, but it is very difficult to forecast the values necessary to design from the planning stage. Moreover, as the parameter is changed due to the urban development, it is difficult not only to analyze the run-off influences but also to find the related studies and literatures. The purpose of this study is to utilize the results as the important basic data of the hydrologic structures, its proper design and run-off influences through the sensibility analysis of the model parameter variables. In this study, the absolute and relative sensibility analysis method were used to find out the correlation through the sensibility analysis of the topology and hydrology parameters. Especially, in this study, the changes in the run-off amount and volume were calculated according to increase/decrease in CN, the coefficient of discharge, and the empirical formula is prepared and proposed through the regressive analysis among the parameters. In the meantime, the parameter sensibility analysis was performed through the simulation HEC-HMS that is used and available in Korea. From the results of this study, it was found that the run-off amount is increased about by 10% when the CN value is increased by 5% before and after the development through the HEC-HMS simulation and data analysis. As long as there will be additional data collection analysis and result verification, and continuous further studies to find out the parameters proper to the domestic circumstances, it is expected to considerably contribute to the proper design of the hydrologic structures with respect to the ungauged basin.

• 한국농공학회지
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.52-65
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• 1984

In general precise estimation of hourly of daily distribution of the long-term run-off should be very important in a design of source of irrigation. However, there have not been a satisfying method for forecasting of stationar'y long-term run-off in Korea. Solving this problem, this study introduces unit-hydrograph method frequently used in short-term run-off analysis into the long-term run-off analysis, of which model basin was selected to be Sumgin-river catchment area. In the estimation of effective rainfall, conventional method neglects the Soil moisture condition of catchment area, but in this study, the initial discharge (qb) occurred just before rising phase of the hydrograph was selected as the index of a basin soil moisture condition and then introduced as 3rd variable in the analysis of the reationship between cumulative rainfall and cumulative loss of rainfall, which built a new type of separation method of effective rainfall. In next step, in order to normalize significant potential error included in hydrological data, especially in vast catchment area, Snyder's correlation method was applied. A key to solution in this study is multiple correlation method or multiple regressional analysis, which is primarily based on the method of least squres and which is solved by the form of systems of linear equations. And for verification of the change of characteristics of unit hydrograph according to the variation of a various kind of hydrological charateristics (for example, precipitation, tree cover, soil condition, etc),seasonal unit hydrograph models of dry season(autumn, winter), semi-dry season (spring), rainy season (summer) were made respectively. The results obtained in this study were summarized as follows; 1.During the test period of 1966-1971, effective rainfall was estimated for the total 114 run-off hydrograph. From this estimation results, relative error of estimation to the ovservation value was 6%, -which is mush smaller than 12% of the error of conventional method. 2.During the test period, daily distribution of long-term run-off discharge was estimated by the unit hydrograph model. From this estimation results, relative error of estimation by the application of standard unit hydrograph model was 12%. When estimating by each seasonal unit bydrograph model, the relative error was 14% during dry season 10% during semi-dry season and 7% during rainy season, which is much smaller than 37% of conventional method. Summing up the analysis results obtained above, it is convinced that qb-index method of this study for the estimation of effective rainfall be preciser than any other method developed before. Because even recently no method has been developed for the estimation of daily distribution of long-term run-off dicharge, therefore estimation value by unit hydrograph model was only compared with that due to kaziyama method which estimates monthly run-off discharge. However this method due to this study turns out to have high accuracy. If specially mentioned from the results of this study, there is no need to use each seasonal unit hydrograph model separately except the case of semi-dry season. The author hopes to analyze the latter case in future sudies.

• 한국농공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국농공학회 1999년도 Proceedings of the 1999 Annual Conference The Korean Society of Agricutural Engineers
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• pp.701-707
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• 1999

This study was initiated to collect background pollutant data for rural watersheds. The effluent/run-off polutant load and run-off ratio of the study areas were calculated and the two types of regression equations, L=a$.$Q+b and L=c$.$Qd where L and Q are the pollutant load(L) and discharge (Q), were derived. We acquired that the correlation coeffcients of the two types of regression equations were over than 90% except for BOD . Therefore, L-Q equations would be a measure to predict water quality of rural watersheds.

• 한국농공학회지
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• 제32권4호
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• pp.27-43
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• 1990

This study aimed at developing a generalized model on the estimation of the long - term run - off volume for practical purpose. During the research period of last 3 years( 1986-1988), 3 types of estimation model on the long - term run - off volume(Effective rainfall model, unit hydrograph model and barne's model for dry season) had been developed by the author. In this study, through regressional analysis between determinant factors (bi of effective rainfall model, ai of unit hydrograph model and Wi of barne's model) and catchment characteris- tics(catchment area, distance round the catchment area, massing degree coefficient, river - exte- nsion, river - slope, river - density, infiltration of Watershed) of 11 test case areas by multiple regressional method, a new methodology on the derivation of determinant factors from catchment characteristics in the watershed areas having no hydrological station was developed. Therefore, in the resulting step, estimation equations on run - off volume for practical purpose of which input facor is only rainfall were developed. In the next stage, the derived equations were applied on the Kang - and Namgye - river catchment areas for checking of their goodness. The test results were as follows ; 1. In Kang - river area, average relative estimation errors of 72 hydrographs and of continuous daily run - off volume for 245 days( 1/5/1982 - 31/12) were calculated as 6.09%, 9.58% respectively. 2. In Namgye - river area, average relative estimation errors of 65 hydrographs and of conti- nuous daily run - off volume for 2fl days(5/4/1980-31/12) were 5.68%, 10.5% respectively. In both cases, relative estimation error was averaged as 7.96%, and so, the methodology in this study might be hetter organized than Kaziyama's formula when comparing with the relative error of the latter, 24~54%. However, two case studies cannot be the base materials enough for the full generalization of the model. So, in the future studies, many test case studies of this model should he carries out in the various catchment areas for making its generalization.

• 한국농공학회지
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.75-87
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• 1980

Most hydro]ogic phenomena are the complex and organic products of multiple causations like climatic and hydro-geological factors. A certain significant correlation on the run-off in river basin would be expected and foreseen in advance, and the effect of each these causual and associated factors (independant variables; present-month rainfall, previous-month run-off, evapotranspiration and relative humidity etc.) upon present-month run-off(dependent variable) may be determined by multiple regression analysis. Functions between independant and dependant variables should be treated repeatedly until satisfactory and optimal combination of independant variables can be obtained. Reliability of the estimated function should be tested according to the result of statistical criterion such as analysis of variance, coefficient of determination and significance-test of regression coefficients before first estimated multiple regression model in historical sequence is determined. But some error between observed and estimated run-off is still there. The error arises because the model used is an inadequate description of the system and because the data constituting the record represent only a sample from a population of monthly discharge observation, so that estimates of model parameter will be subject to sampling errors. Since this error which is a deviation from multiple regression plane cannot be explained by first estimated multiple regression equation, it can be considered as a random error governed by law of chance in nature. This unexplained variance by multiple regression equation can be solved by stochastic approach, that is, random error can be stochastically simulated by multiplying random normal variate to standard error of estimate. Finally hybrid model on estimation of monthly run-off in nonhistorical sequence can be determined by combining the determistic component of multiple regression equation and the stochastic component of random errors. Monthly run-off in Naju station in Yong-San river basin is estimated by multiple regression model and hybrid model. And some comparisons between observed and estimated run-off and between multiple regression model and already-existing estimation methods such as Gajiyama formula, tank model and Thomas-Fiering model are done. The results are as follows. (1) The optimal function to estimate monthly run-off in historical sequence is multiple linear regression equation in overall-month unit, that is; Qn=0.788Pn+0.130Qn-1-0.273En-0.1 About 85% of total variance of monthly runoff can be explained by multiple linear regression equation and its coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.843. This means we can estimate monthly runoff in historical sequence highly significantly with short data of observation by above mentioned equation. (2) The optimal function to estimate monthly runoff in nonhistorical sequence is hybrid model combined with multiple linear regression equation in overall-month unit and stochastic component, that is; Qn=0. 788Pn+0. l30Qn-1-0. 273En-0. 10+Sy.t The rest 15% of unexplained variance of monthly runoff can be explained by addition of stochastic process and a bit more reliable results of statistical characteristics of monthly runoff in non-historical sequence are derived. This estimated monthly runoff in non-historical sequence shows up the extraordinary value (maximum, minimum value) which is not appeared in the observed runoff as a random component. (3) "Frequency best fit coefficient" (R2f) of multiple linear regression equation is 0.847 which is the same value as Gaijyama's one. This implies that multiple linear regression equation and Gajiyama formula are theoretically rather reasonable functions.

• Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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• 제32권10호
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• pp.3779-3782
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• 2011

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.211-226
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• 2017

The chain-ladder method, for which run-off data is employed is popularly used in the rate-adjustment and loss-reserving practices of non-life-insurance and health-insurance companies. The method is applicable when the underlying assumption of a consistent development pattern is in regards to a cumulative loss payment after the occurrence of an insurance event. In this study, a modified chain-ladder algorithm is proposed for when the assumption is considered to be only partially appropriate for the given run-off data. The concept of a structural-change point in the run-off data and its reflection in the estimation of unpaid loss amounts are discussed with numerical illustrations. Experience data from private health insurance coverage in Korea were analyzed based on the suggested method. The performance in estimation of loss reserve was also compared with traditional approaches. We present evidence in this paper that shows that a reflection of a structural-change point in the chain-ladder method can improve the risk management of the relevant insurance products. The suggested method is expected to be utilized easily in actuarial practice as the algorithm is straightforward.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.551-562
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• 2008

보험분야에서 지급준비금(loss reserve)을 추정할 때에는 보험사고의 발생년도와 사건발생 이후의 경과년도에 따라 지급된 보험금을 자료로 사용하게 되는데, 이것은 흔히 삼각분할표(run-off triangular table)의 형태로 주어진다. 이러한 삼각분할표 자료에 대하여 지급준비금 추정에 주로 사용되는 방법으로 사다리법(chain-ladder method)이 있는데, 이것은 사고발생년도부터 보험금이 정산되는 시점까지의 경과기간동안 지급된 누적 보험금의 변화율(진전계수)을 추정함으로써 지급준비금을 추정하는 것이다. 이러한 사다리법은 보험사고의 발생년도에 따른 진전계수의 변화가 없다는 가정을 기본전제로 하고 있다. 그러나 여러 가지 사회 환경적 요인으로 인하여 시간이 지남에 따라 지급보험금의 진전패턴이 달라질 수 있고, 본 논문에서는 사건의 변화에 따른 구조적 변화점 유무를 검정할 수 있는 검정법을 제안하고자 한다. 또한 이를 실제 예제에 적용 고찰해 보고자 한다.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제22권5호
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• pp.555-562
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• 2013

Jeju Island, the heaviest raining area in Korea, is a volcanic Island located at the southernmost of Korea, but most streams are of the dry due to its hydrological/geological characteristics different from those of inland areas. Therefore, there are limitations in applying the results from the mainland to the studies on stream run-off characteristics analysis and water resource analysis of Jeju Island. In this study, the SWAT(soil & water assessment tool) model is used for the Hwabuk stream watershed located east of the downtown to calculate the long-term stream run-off rate, and WMS(watershed modeling system) and HEC-HMS(hydrologic modeling system) models are used to figure out the stream run-off characteristics due to short-term heavy rainfall. As the result of SWAT modelling for the long-term rainfall-runoff model for Hwabuk stream watershed in 2008, 5.66% of the average precipitation of the entire basin was run off, with 3.47% in 2009, 8.12% in 2010, and root mean square error(RMSE) and determination coefficient($R^2$) was 496.9 and 0.87, respectively, with model efficient(ME) of 0.72. From the results of WMS and HEC-HMS models which are short-term rainfall-runoff models, unless there was a preceding rainfall, the runoff occurred only for rainfall of 40mm or greater, and the run-off duration averaged 10~14 hours.