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Development of Intelligent ATP System Using Genetic Algorithm (유전 알고리듬을 적용한 지능형 ATP 시스템 개발)

  • Kim, Tai-Young
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.131-145
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    • 2010
  • The framework for making a coordinated decision for large-scale facilities has become an important issue in supply chain(SC) management research. The competitive business environment requires companies to continuously search for the ways to achieve high efficiency and lower operational costs. In the areas of production/distribution planning, many researchers and practitioners have developedand evaluated the deterministic models to coordinate important and interrelated logistic decisions such as capacity management, inventory allocation, and vehicle routing. They initially have investigated the various process of SC separately and later become more interested in such problems encompassing the whole SC system. The accurate quotation of ATP(Available-To-Promise) plays a very important role in enhancing customer satisfaction and fill rate maximization. The complexity for intelligent manufacturing system, which includes all the linkages among procurement, production, and distribution, makes the accurate quotation of ATP be a quite difficult job. In addition to, many researchers assumed ATP model with integer time. However, in industry practices, integer times are very rare and the model developed using integer times is therefore approximating the real system. Various alternative models for an ATP system with time lags have been developed and evaluated. In most cases, these models have assumed that the time lags are integer multiples of a unit time grid. However, integer time lags are very rare in practices, and therefore models developed using integer time lags only approximate real systems. The differences occurring by this approximation frequently result in significant accuracy degradations. To introduce the ATP model with time lags, we first introduce the dynamic production function. Hackman and Leachman's dynamic production function in initiated research directly related to the topic of this paper. They propose a modeling framework for a system with non-integer time lags and show how to apply the framework to a variety of systems including continues time series, manufacturing resource planning and critical path method. Their formulation requires no additional variables or constraints and is capable of representing real world systems more accurately. Previously, to cope with non-integer time lags, they usually model a concerned system either by rounding lags to the nearest integers or by subdividing the time grid to make the lags become integer multiples of the grid. But each approach has a critical weakness: the first approach underestimates, potentially leading to infeasibilities or overestimates lead times, potentially resulting in excessive work-inprocesses. The second approach drastically inflates the problem size. We consider an optimized ATP system with non-integer time lag in supply chain management. We focus on a worldwide headquarter, distribution centers, and manufacturing facilities are globally networked. We develop a mixed integer programming(MIP) model for ATP process, which has the definition of required data flow. The illustrative ATP module shows the proposed system is largely affected inSCM. The system we are concerned is composed of a multiple production facility with multiple products, multiple distribution centers and multiple customers. For the system, we consider an ATP scheduling and capacity allocationproblem. In this study, we proposed the model for the ATP system in SCM using the dynamic production function considering the non-integer time lags. The model is developed under the framework suitable for the non-integer lags and, therefore, is more accurate than the models we usually encounter. We developed intelligent ATP System for this model using genetic algorithm. We focus on a capacitated production planning and capacity allocation problem, develop a mixed integer programming model, and propose an efficient heuristic procedure using an evolutionary system to solve it efficiently. This method makes it possible for the population to reach the approximate solution easily. Moreover, we designed and utilized a representation scheme that allows the proposed models to represent real variables. The proposed regeneration procedures, which evaluate each infeasible chromosome, makes the solutions converge to the optimum quickly.

Selection Model of System Trading Strategies using SVM (SVM을 이용한 시스템트레이딩전략의 선택모형)

  • Park, Sungcheol;Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.59-71
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    • 2014
  • System trading is becoming more popular among Korean traders recently. System traders use automatic order systems based on the system generated buy and sell signals. These signals are generated from the predetermined entry and exit rules that were coded by system traders. Most researches on system trading have focused on designing profitable entry and exit rules using technical indicators. However, market conditions, strategy characteristics, and money management also have influences on the profitability of the system trading. Unexpected price deviations from the predetermined trading rules can incur large losses to system traders. Therefore, most professional traders use strategy portfolios rather than only one strategy. Building a good strategy portfolio is important because trading performance depends on strategy portfolios. Despite of the importance of designing strategy portfolio, rule of thumb methods have been used to select trading strategies. In this study, we propose a SVM-based strategy portfolio management system. SVM were introduced by Vapnik and is known to be effective for data mining area. It can build good portfolios within a very short period of time. Since SVM minimizes structural risks, it is best suitable for the futures trading market in which prices do not move exactly the same as the past. Our system trading strategies include moving-average cross system, MACD cross system, trend-following system, buy dips and sell rallies system, DMI system, Keltner channel system, Bollinger Bands system, and Fibonacci system. These strategies are well known and frequently being used by many professional traders. We program these strategies for generating automated system signals for entry and exit. We propose SVM-based strategies selection system and portfolio construction and order routing system. Strategies selection system is a portfolio training system. It generates training data and makes SVM model using optimal portfolio. We make $m{\times}n$ data matrix by dividing KOSPI 200 index futures data with a same period. Optimal strategy portfolio is derived from analyzing each strategy performance. SVM model is generated based on this data and optimal strategy portfolio. We use 80% of the data for training and the remaining 20% is used for testing the strategy. For training, we select two strategies which show the highest profit in the next day. Selection method 1 selects two strategies and method 2 selects maximum two strategies which show profit more than 0.1 point. We use one-against-all method which has fast processing time. We analyse the daily data of KOSPI 200 index futures contracts from January 1990 to November 2011. Price change rates for 50 days are used as SVM input data. The training period is from January 1990 to March 2007 and the test period is from March 2007 to November 2011. We suggest three benchmark strategies portfolio. BM1 holds two contracts of KOSPI 200 index futures for testing period. BM2 is constructed as two strategies which show the largest cumulative profit during 30 days before testing starts. BM3 has two strategies which show best profits during testing period. Trading cost include brokerage commission cost and slippage cost. The proposed strategy portfolio management system shows profit more than double of the benchmark portfolios. BM1 shows 103.44 point profit, BM2 shows 488.61 point profit, and BM3 shows 502.41 point profit after deducting trading cost. The best benchmark is the portfolio of the two best profit strategies during the test period. The proposed system 1 shows 706.22 point profit and proposed system 2 shows 768.95 point profit after deducting trading cost. The equity curves for the entire period show stable pattern. With higher profit, this suggests a good trading direction for system traders. We can make more stable and more profitable portfolios if we add money management module to the system.

An Analysis on Changing Pattern of Economic Active Population by Working Life Table for Korean Men (우리나라 노동생명표에 의한 노동력추이 분석)

  • 조진만
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 1990
  • This is a study which attempt to analyze changing patierns of economic active popu-lation, t o estimato- future patterns, and exa- mine vartons problems arises by changing c ire u mst ances of t he labor force market in- clunging soici al, economic ic, heathl th and demoi-graph ic aspects. We have constructed series of wotking life table which are useful in syt uiolyioig the lirocess of growth and structural change of labor force. Work i ng life tables represent ihie life eyele of econrmic' activity in hi ypothetical cohorts, that is. gen-erat i on of men Sn bject at eat' b period ot f their lives th given ra to's o mor tali it y and of par-- tici pation in economic activities. The tabloes prot' ide measorues of the alvet'age he ng t able of economically aeti \- e life. and agespecific rates of en trannee' into and retirement from the hahn' force. In const routing working life tables, age-specific activity rates and life tabole popula- titoto which represents contemporary condi-tions of moortality in Korea au'e the basic' maltoerials. We have derived the age-specific rates foorm economically active population survey, whoich were conducted by the Bureau of Statistics, Economic Planning Borard of the Korean government. Working life tables are constructed for men wtable these materi- als in the year of 1970, 1980 and 1988 by a modified Wolfbein-Wool's method. Some of the findings may be summerized as follow : 1) A central part of constructing working life table is calculation of stationary' economic active population, which represents the number of men in the stationtary population extoected to be in the labor force at each age group in the life span. The stationary economic active population by age have generally a universal pattern, where they rise sharply in the early twenties, approach its' peak in the thirties decline thereafter. at first graolually and then more rapidly at an advanced age. Korean men show the same general pa ttern of age distribution of stationary eco-- nomic active population with sharp increase hegining from the age interval of 20 to 24, reaching to maximum level at older age. The population. however, presumably, increased substantially due to increaseing school atte endance rates. Another difference exiSts in the youngest age groups, that is the activity rate in the year of 1988 is lower than that of Japan. The table shows an analysis of changes in the age distrihution of labor force between 1970, 1980 and 1988. 2) It was shown an analysis of changes in the age distribution and cause of separation from labor force. The entrance rate to labor force has increased from 18~\5 persons to 299 persons per 1000 head of stationary population between that of 1980 than that of 1988 for Korean men in 20~24 age group. The entrace rate to labor force shows a rapid entrance appearance concentrated on the 15~24 age group. The separation rate from labor force by retirment in Korea in the year of 1988 shows a great difference of the about four times as much as that of Japan. 3) The functions of table illustrate the patterns of working life of males in Korea in 1970, 1980 and 1988. The average remaining number of economically active years, e at age 15 in 1988 is 46.39 which is 2.12 years of increase compared with that of at age 15 in 1970,1980 and 1988 are 43.90,44.27 and 46.39 respectively, showing steadily increase dur- ing the past double decade the increase in the length of economically active life various age may be considered to have come both from extention of general life expectancy and from increasing entrance rate to economic activity in high age that of working is far greater in 1988 than that of 1980. The gaps between expectation of life and average remaining years of economically active widened due to rapid improvement of mortality level in Ko- rea. This observation together with the population pressure by the appearance of a group of younger population implies that constant increase of economically inactive population among older age group.

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A Study on the Legislative Guidelines for Airline Consumer Protection (항공소비자 보호제도의 입법방향)

  • Lee, Chang-Jae
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.3-51
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    • 2017
  • From a historical point of view, while the Warsaw Convention was passed in 1924 to regulate the unified judicial responsibility in the global air transportation industry, protection of airline consumers was somewhat lacking in protecting air carriers. In principle, the air carrier does not bear any obligation or liability when the aircraft is not operated normally due to natural disasters such as typhoon or heavy snowfall. However, in recent years, in developed countries such as the US and Europe, there has been a movement in which regulates the air carriers' obligation to protect their passengers even if there is no misconduct or negligence. Furthermore, the legislation of such advanced countries imposes an obligation on the airlines to compensate the loss separately from damages in case the abnormal operation of the aircraft is not caused by force majeure but caused by their negligence. Under this historical and international context, Korea is also modifying the system of aviation consumer protection by referring to other foreign legislation. However, when compared with foreign countries, our norm has a few drawbacks. First, the airline's protection or care obligations are mixed with the legal liability for damages in the provision, which seems to be due to the lack of understanding of the airline's passenger protection obligation. The liability for damages, which is governed by the International Convention or the Commercial Act, shall be determined by judging the cause of the airline's liability in respect of the damage of the individual passenger in the course of the air transportation. However, the duty to care and the burden for compensation shall be granted to all passengers who feel uncomfortable with the abnormal operation regardless of the cause of the accident. Also, our compensation system for denied boarding due to oversale is too low compared to the case of foreign countries, and setting the compensation amount range differently based on the time for the re-routing is somewhat unclear. Regarding checked-baggage claim, it will be necessary to refund the fee only from the fact that the baggage is delayed without asking whether there is any damage occurred from the delayed baggage. This is the content of the duty to care, which is different from the current Commercial Act or the international convention, in which responsibility is different depending on whether the airline takes all the necessary measures in order to prevent delaying of the baggage. The content of force majeure, which is a requirement for exemption from the obligation to care passengers on the airplane, shall be reconsidered. Maintenance for safe navigation is not considered to be included in force majeure, and connection to airplanes, airport conditions are disputable. According to the EC Regulation, if the cause of the abnormal operation of the airline is force majeure, the airline's compensation obligation is exempted but the duty to care of airline company is still meaningful. Furthermore, even if the main role of aviation consumer protection is on an airline, it is the responsibility of government agencies to supervise the fulfillment of such protection obligations. Therefore, it is necessary for the Korean government to actively take measures such as enforcing incentives for airlines that faithfully fulfill their obligation to care and imposed penalties on the contrary.

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