• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.127-134
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• 2016

PURPOSES : Low visibility caused by dark surroundings at nighttime affects the likelihood of accidents, and various efforts, such as installing road safety facilities, have been made to reduce accidents at night. Despite these efforts, the nighttime severity index (SI) in Korea was higher than the daytime SI during 2011-2014. This study determined the factors affecting daytime and nighttime accident severity through a discriminant analysis. METHODS : Discriminant analysis. RESULTS : First, drowsiness, lack of attention, and lighting facilities affected both daytime and nighttime accident severity. Accidents were found to be caused by a low ability to recognize the driving conditions and a low obstacle avoidance capability. Second, road conditions and speeding affected only the daytime accident severity. Third, failure to maintain a safe distance significantly affected daytime accident severity and nonsignificantly affected nighttime accident severity. The majority of such accidents were caused by rear-end collisions of vehicles driving in the same direction; given the low relative speed difference in such cases, the shock imparted by the accidents was minimal. CONCLUSIONS : Accidents caused by a failure to maintain a safe distance has lower severity than do accidents caused by other factors.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제32권5호
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• pp.135-140
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• 2017

This study deals with the safety of roundabout. The purpose of this study is to analyze the factors affecting the pedestrian accidents of roundabout near schools. In pursuing the above, this study gives particular attentions to comparatively analyzing the pedestrian accident by number of entry and circulatory lane. The traffic accident data from 2013 to 2015 are collected from TAAS data set of Road Traffic Authority. To develop the pedestrian accident model, the Poisson and negative binomial models has been utilized in this study. Such the dependent variable as the number of pedestrian accidents and the 24 independent variables as geometry, traffic volume and others are used. The main results are as follows. First, 3 Poisson and 2 negative binomial models(${\rho}^2$ of 0.153~0.426) which are all statistically significant are developed. Second, the common variable of models based on the number of circulatory roadway lane is analyzed to be the entry lane width and that of the number of entry lane is evaluated to be the design speed. Also specific variables are evaluated to splitter island, roundabout sign, number of approach road, bus stop and elementary school. Finally, the design speed might be expected to decrease the number of pedestrian accidents near schools.

• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.119-129
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• 2016

PURPOSES : The purpose of this study is to develop a methodology for estimating additional carbon emissions due to freeway incidents. METHODS : As our country grows, our highway policy has mainly neglected the environmental and social sectors. However, with the formation of a national green growth keynote and an increase in the number of people interested in environmental and social issues, problems related to social issues, such as traffic accidents and congestion, and environmental issues, such as the impact of air pollution caused by exhaust gases that are emitted from highway vehicles, are beginning to be discussed. Accordingly, studies have been conducted on a variety of environmental aspects in the field of road transport, and for the quantitative calculation of greenhouse gas emissions, using various methods. However, in order to observe the effects of carbon emissions, microscopic simulations must use many difficult variables such as cost, analysis time, and ease of analysis process. In this study, additional greenhouse gas emissions that occur because of highway traffic accidents were classified by type (incident handling time, number of lanes blocked, freeway level of service), and the annual additional emissions based on incidents were calculated. According to the results, congestion length and emissions tend to increase with an increase in incident clearance time, number of occupied lanes, and worsening level of service. Using this data, we analyzed accident data on the Gyeong-bu Expressway (Yang-Jae IC - Osan IC) for a year. RESULTS : Additional greenhouse gas emissions that occur because of highway traffic accidents were classified by type (incident handling time, number of lanes blocked, freeway level of service) and annual additional emissions caused by accidents were calculated. CONCLUSIONS : In this study, a methodology for estimating carbon emissions due to freeway incidents was developed that incorporates macroscopic flow models. The results of the study are organized in the form of a look-Up table that calculates carbon emissions rather easily.

• 한국ITS학회 논문지
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• 제14권6호
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• pp.91-99
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• 2015

본 연구는 서울, 수도권 및 부산광역시의 4지 신호교차로를 대상으로 도로의 기하구조측면, 교통특성, 환경특성 등 다양한 요인을 고려하여 교통사고예측모형을 구축하고 교차로사고와의 상호관계를 규명하고자 하였다. 분석 결과 기존의 음이항 모형보다 확률적 음이항 모형의 설명력이 높게 나타났으며 총 52개의 변수 중 10개의 변수가(주도로의 차로 수, 주도로의 좌회전 교통량, 주도로의 주행제약시설 수, 부도로의 우회전 교통량, 부도로의 교차로 시거, 교차로의 총 현시, 부도로의 중앙분리대 유무, 부도로의 제한속도, 부도로의 교통섬 유무, 부도로의 속도제약시설 수) 도시부 4지 신호교차로에서 교통사고에 영향을 미치는 유의한 변수로 나타났다. 또한 10개의 유의한 변수 중 2개의 변수가(부도로의 교차로 시거, 부도로의 차량 주행속도 제약 시설물 수)가 확률적 변수로 나타났다.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제32권2호
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• pp.132-146
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• 2017

Appropriate speed limits at a reasonable level in urban roads are highly important factors for efficient and safe movement. Thus, it is greatly necessary to develop the objective models or methodology based on engineering study considering factors such as traffic accident rates, roadside development levels, and roadway geometry characteristics etc. The purpose of this study is to develop the estimate model of appropriate speed limits at each road sections in urban roads using traffic information big data and field specific data and to review the effects of accident decrease. In this study, the estimate method of appropriate speed limits in directional two or more lanes of urban roads is reflecting features of actual variables in a form of adjustment factor on the basis of the maximum statutory speed limits. As a result of investigating and testing influential variables, the main variables to affect the operating speed are the function of road, the existence of median, the width of lane, the number of traffic entrance/exit path and the number of traffic signal or nonsignal at intersection and crosswalk. As a result of testing this model, when the differences are bigger between the real operating speed and the recommended speed limits using model developed in this study, the accident rate generally turns out to be higher. In case of using the model proposed in this study, it means accident rate can be lower. When the result of this study is applied, the speed limits of directional two or more lane roads in Seoul appears about 11km/h lower than the current speed limits. The decrease of average operating speed caused by the decrease of speed limits is 2.8km/h, and the decrease effect of whole accidents according to the decrease of speed is 18% at research road. In case that accident severity is considered, the accident decrease effects are expected to 17~24% in fatalities, 11~17% in seriously injured road user, 6~9% in slightly injured road user, 5~6% in property damage only accidents.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제26권3호
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• pp.661-668
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• 2015

교통사고는 인구의 증가와 그에 따른 자동차의 증가로 인하여 매년 증가하고 있다. 그러한 교통사고의 원인은 운전자의 부주의뿐만 아니라 도로상의 기상상황에 의해 영향을 받는다. 특히, 강수량, 시계, 습도, 흐림 정도, 기온 등에 의해 많은 교통사고들이 영향을 받는다. 따라서 본 연구는 다양한 기상 요인의 영향 정도에 따른 교통사고 발생 유무의 분석을 목적으로 하였다. 부산 해운대구의 센텀남대로 및 해운대로의 2013년도 교통사고 발생 자료와 지역별 상세 기상 관측 자료인 AWS 기상자료(시간당 강수량, 강수유무, 기온, 풍속), 시간대, 요일을 활용하여 로지스틱 회귀모형 및 의사결정나무모형을 이용하여 분석하였다. 그 결과 기상 요인 중 강수유무와 기온이 교통사고 발생에 영향을 미치는 요인으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 도로위의 기상상태에 따른 교통사고의 발생을 예측하는데 유용하게 사용할 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국재난정보학회 논문집
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.30-49
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• 2013

본 연구에서는 토지이용에 기반을 두는 새로운 교통사고 예측모형을 개발하였다. 다양한 지역의 특성을 반영할 수 있는 변수에 대한 시장분할 및 추가변수 도입을 토대로 Data Mining 기법의 하나인 의사나무결정법(Classification and Regression Tree)을 활용하여 새로운 유형별 교통사고 예측모형을 개발하였다. 분석결과를 살펴보면 주민등록인구수, 통근 등 활동변수와 활동의 대상이 되는 도로규모, 유발시설 등이 교통사고를 설명하는 변수로 도출되었다.

• 한국ITS학회 논문지
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.59-73
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• 2021

교통사고로 인한 많은 인명피해가 발생하고 있으나, 첨단 기술의 발전에도 불구하고 교통사고 발생은 줄어들지 않고 있다. 교통사고를 사전에 예방하기 위해서는 향후 사고가 어떻게 변화하여 갈 것인지를 정확하게 예측할 필요가 있다. 지금까지 교통사고 발생 빈도 예측은 주요 연구 분야가 아니었으며 주로 과거 일정 기간의 통계를 기반으로 전통적인 방법으로 미시적으로 분석되어 왔다. 최근 AI 기술이 교통사고 분야에 도입 되었음에도 불구하고 주로 교통 흐름 예측에 초점을 맞추고 있어, 본 연구에서는 2014년부터 2019년까지 국내에서 발생한 1,339,587건의 교통사고 기록을 시계열 데이터로 변환하고 AI 알고리즘 LSTM을 이용하여 연령별, 시간별 교통사고 발생 빈도를 예측하였다. 또한 코로나-19로 인한 교통 환경의 변화에 맞추어 예측값과 실제값을 비교 검증하였다. 향후 이러한 연구결과가 교통사고 예방의 정책개선으로 이어지고 사고 예방에 활용 될 것으로 기대된다.

• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.119-129
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• 2014

PURPOSES : The purpose of this study is to develop the U-turn accident model at 4-legged signalized intersections in urban areas. METHODS : In order to analyze the characteristics of the accidents which are associated with U-turn operation at 4-legged signalized intersections in urban areas and develop an U-turn accident model by regression analysis, the tests of overdispersion and zero-inflation are conducted about the dependent variables of number of accidents and EPDO (Equivalent Property Damage Only). RESULTS : As their results, the Poisson model fits best for number of accident and the ZIP (Zero Inflated Poisson) fits best for EPOD, the variables of conflict traffic, width of opposing road, traffic passing speed are adopted as independent variable for both models. The variables of number of bus berths and rate of U-turn signal time at which the U-turn is permitted are adopted as independent variable only for EPDO. CONCLUSIONS : These study results suggest that U-turn would be permitted at the intersection where the width of opposing road is wider than 11.9 meters, the passing vehicle speed is not high and U-turn operation is not hindered by the buses stopping at bus stops.

• 한국ITS학회 논문지
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• 제16권4호
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• pp.1-12
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• 2017

교통사고는 인적요인, 차량요인, 환경요인이 복합적으로 작용하여 발생한다. 이 중 렌터카 교통사고는 운전자의 평소 익숙하지 않은 환경 등으로 인해 교통사고 발생 가능성과 심각도가 다른 교통사고와는 다를 것으로 예상된다. 이에 본 연구에서는 국내 대표 관광도시인 부산광역시, 강릉시, 제주시를 대상으로 최근 빅데이터 분석에 사용되는 기계학습 기법중 하나인 나이브 베이즈 분류기를 이용하여 렌터카 교통사고의 심각도를 예측하는 모형을 개발하였다. 또한, 기존 연구에 유의성이 검증된 변수와 수집 가능한 모든 변수를 이용하는 두 가지 모형에 대하여 모형의 예측 정확도를 비교하였다. 비교 결과 통계적 기법을 통해 유의성이 검증된 변수를 사용할 경우 모형이 더 높은 예측 정확도를 보이는 것으로 나타났다.