• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk sensitivity

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Investigation of Microbial Safety and Correlations Between the Level of Sanitary Indicator Bacteria and the Detection Ratio of Pathogens in Agricultural Water (농업용수의 미생물학적 안전성 조사 및 위생지표세균 농도와 병원성미생물 검출률과의 상관관계 분석)

  • Hwang, Injun;Lee, Tae Kwon;Park, Daesoo;Kim, Eunsun;Choi, Song-Yi;Hyun, Jeong-Eun;Rajalingam, Nagendran;Kim, Se-Ri;Cho, Min
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.248-259
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    • 2021
  • BACKGROUND: Contaminated water was a major source of food-borne pathogens in various recent fresh produce-related outbreaks. This study was conducted to investigate the microbial contamination level and correlations between the level of sanitary indicator bacteria and the detection ratio of pathogens in agricultural water by logistic regression analysis. METHODS AND RESULTS: Agricultural water was collected from 457 sites including surface water (n=300 sites) and groundwater (n=157 sites) in South Korea from 2018 to 2020. Sanitary indicator bacteria (total coliform, fecal coliform, and Escherichia coli) and food-borne pathogens (pathogenic E. coli, E. coli O157:H7, Salmonella spp., and Listeria monocytogenes) were analyzed. In surface water, the coliform, fecal coliform, and E. coli were 3.27±0.89 log CFU/100 mL, 1.90±1.19 log CFU/100 mL, and 1.39±1.26 log CFU/100 mL, respectively. For groundwater, three kinds of sanitary indicators ranged in the level from 0.09 - 0.57 log CFU/100 mL. Pathogenic E. coli, Salmonella and Listeria monocytogenes were detected from 3%-site, 1.5%- site, and 0.6%-site water samples, respectively. According to the results of correlations between the level of sanitary indicator bacteria and the detection ratio of pathogens by logistic regression analysis, the probability of pathogen detection increased individually by 1.45 and 1.34 times as each total coliform and E. coli concentration increased by 1 log CFU/100mL. The accuracy of the model was 70.4%, and sensitivity and specificity were 81.5% and 51.7%, respectively. CONCLUSION(S): The results indicate the need to manage the microbial risk of agricultural water to enhance the safety of fresh produce. In addition, logistic regression analysis is useful to analyze the correlation between the level of sanitary indicator bacteria and the detection ratio of pathogens in agricultural water.

A Prognostic Factor for Prolonged Mechanical Ventilator-Dependent Respiratory Failure after Cervical Spinal Cord Injury : Maximal Canal Compromise on Magnetic Resonance Imaging

  • Lee, Subum;Roh, Sung Woo;Jeon, Sang Ryong;Park, Jin Hoon;Kim, Kyoung-Tae;Lee, Young-Seok;Cho, Dae-Chul
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.64 no.5
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    • pp.791-798
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    • 2021
  • Objective : The period of mechanical ventilator (MV)-dependent respiratory failure after cervical spinal cord injury (CSCI) varies from patient to patient. This study aimed to identify predictors of MV at hospital discharge (MVDC) due to prolonged respiratory failure among patients with MV after CSCI. Methods : Two hundred forty-three patients with CSCI were admitted to our institution between May 2006 and April 2018. Their medical records and radiographic data were retrospectively reviewed. Level and completeness of injury were defined according to the American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) standards. Respiratory failure was defined as the requirement for definitive airway and assistance of MV. We also evaluated magnetic resonance imaging characteristics of the cervical spine. These characteristics included : maximum canal compromise (MCC); intramedullary hematoma or cord transection; and integrity of the disco-ligamentous complex for assessment of the Subaxial Cervical Spine Injury Classification (SLIC) scoring. The inclusion criteria were patients with CSCI who underwent decompression surgery within 48 hours after trauma with respiratory failure during hospital stay. Patients with Glasgow coma scale 12 or lower, major fatal trauma of vital organs, or stroke caused by vertebral artery injury were excluded from the study. Results : Out of 243 patients with CSCI, 30 required MV during their hospital stay, and 27 met the inclusion criteria. Among them, 48.1% (13/27) of patients had MVDC with greater than 30 days MV or death caused by aspiration pneumonia. In total, 51.9% (14/27) of patients could be weaned from MV during 30 days or less of hospital stay (MV days : MVDC 38.23±20.79 vs. MV weaning, 13.57±8.40; p<0.001). Vital signs at hospital arrival, smoking, the American Society of Anesthesiologists classification, Associated injury with Injury Severity Score, SLIC score, and length of cord edema did not differ between the MVDC and MV weaning groups. The ASIA impairment scale, level of injury within C3 to C6, and MCC significantly affected MVDC. The MCC significantly correlated with MVDC, and the optimal cutoff value was 51.40%, with 76.9% sensitivity and 78.6% specificity. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, MCC >51.4% was a significant risk factor for MVDC (odds ratio, 7.574; p=0.039). Conclusion : As a method of predicting which patients would be able to undergo weaning from MV early, the MCC is a valid factor. If the MCC exceeds 51.4%, prognosis of respiratory function becomes poor and the probability of MVDC is increased.

A Study on the Effects of Reading Education Using Book-Coding (북코딩의 독서교육 효과에 관한 연구)

  • Ji, Hyoun-Ah;Cho, Miah
    • Journal of Korean Library and Information Science Society
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    • v.52 no.2
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    • pp.145-166
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    • 2021
  • The study was aimed at verifying the effectiveness of Book-Coding reading education as a reader activity of older elementary school children at a time when high-dimensional thinking abilities were formed. To this end, 30 fifth-grade children of N Elementary School in N-si, Gyeonggi-do, comprised of 15 students from a reading education program using Book-Coding, and 15 students from a reading comprehension program, and applied the reading education program over a total of 12 sessions. The main results of the study are summarized as follows. First, when the effects of the convergence reading education program using Book-Coding on the logical thinking ability of the students in the upper grades in the elementary school were analyzed, all the six sub-factors of logical thinking ability, that is, conservation logic, proportional logic, variable controlling logic, probabilistic logic, correlational inference logic, and combinational logic, were proved to have statistically more meaningful difference than the group writing a book report. Second, the analysis result of the influence of the convergence reading education program using Book-Coding on the creativity of the students in the upper grades of the elementary school showed that all the 13 elements of curiosity, persistence, effectiveness, independence, adventurousness, openness, knowledge, imagination, originality, sensitivity, fluency, flexibility, and accuracy were statistically meaningfully different compared to the book report group. Third, when it was analyzed how the convergence reading education program using Book-Coding affected the creative personality of the elementary school students, all the six factors of curiosity, task commitment, independence, awareness of risk, and openness of thinking, and aesthetics were found out to have a statistically more meaningful difference than the group that wrote a book report.

Estimation of Potential Risk and Numerical Simulations of Landslide Disaster based on UAV Photogrammetry (무인 항공사진측량 정보를 기반으로 한 산사태 수치해석 및 위험도 평가)

  • Choi, Jae Hee;Choi, Bong Jin;Kim, Nam Gyun;Lee, Chang Woo;Seo, Jun Pyo;Jun, Byong Hee
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.41 no.6
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    • pp.675-686
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    • 2021
  • This study investigated the ground displacement occurring in a slope below a waste-rock dumping site and estimated the likelihood of a disaster due to a landslide. To start with, photogrammetry was conducted by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to investigate the size and extent of the ground displacement. From April 2019 to July 2020, the average error rate of the five UAV surveys was 0.011-0.034 m, and an elevation change of 2.97 m occurred due to the movement of the soil layer. Only some areas of the slope showedelevation change, and this was believed to be due to thegroundwater generated during rainfall rather than the effect of the waste-rock load at the top. Sensitivity analysis for LS-RAPID simulation was performed, and the simulation results were compared and analyzed by applying a digital elevation model (DEM) and a digital surface model (DSM)as terrain data with 10 m, 5 m, and 4 m grids. When data with high spatial resolution were used, the extent of the sedimentation of landslide material tended to be excessively expanded in the DEM. In contrast, in the result of applying a DSM, which reflects the topography in detail, the diffusion range was not significantly affected even when the spatial resolution was changed, and the sedimentation behavior according to the river shape could be accurately expressed. As a result, it was concluded that applying a DSM rather than a DEM does not significantly expand the sedimentation range, and results that reflect the site situation well can be obtained.

Comparative analysis of ground settlement and tunnel displacement due to tunnel excavation considering topographic information based on GIS (GIS 기반 지형 정보를 고려한 터널 굴착에 따른 지반침하와 터널 변위 비교 분석)

  • Jae-Eun, Cho;Ye-Rim, Jung;Seong-Min, Song;Ji-Seok, Yun;Sang-Gui, Ha;Han-Kyu, Yoo
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.13-26
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    • 2023
  • Recently, as the development of underground spaces has become active due to rapid urbanization and population density, interest in the ground behavior according to the construction of underground spaces is increasing. In large cities with high population density and many buildings, ground subsidence has a great impact on structures and there may be a risk of collapse, so the analysis of ground behavior due to underground construction is essential. Previous studies have been conducted on the subsidence pattern of the surface and the deformation of the tunnel when constructing the tunnel, but analysis has rarely been conducted by using actual topographic information. Therefore, this study analyzed the difference in ground behavior between the actual topography and the flat topography. As a result, it was confirmed that ground settlement occurs at higher elevations, such as in mountainous topography, and when the numerical analysis is performed considering topographical information, the crown settlement of the tunnel is up to about approx. It showed a difference of 10 mm, and it was found that the sensitivity was less in the case of displacement of tunnel wall compared to the crown settlement and ground settlement. The numerical analysis considering the actual GIS-based topographic information presented in this study can be used to obtain more accurate surface subsidence data to understand the behavior of the upper structure due to tunnel excavation.

Dynamic Nonlinear Prediction Model of Univariate Hydrologic Time Series Using the Support Vector Machine and State-Space Model (Support Vector Machine과 상태공간모형을 이용한 단변량 수문 시계열의 동역학적 비선형 예측모형)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Moon, Young-Il
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.3B
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    • pp.279-289
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    • 2006
  • The reconstruction of low dimension nonlinear behavior from the hydrologic time series has been an active area of research in the last decade. In this study, we present the applications of a powerful state space reconstruction methodology using the method of Support Vector Machines (SVM) to the Great Salt Lake (GSL) volume. SVMs are machine learning systems that use a hypothesis space of linear functions in a Kernel induced higher dimensional feature space. SVMs are optimized by minimizing a bound on a generalized error (risk) measure, rather than just the mean square error over a training set. The utility of this SVM regression approach is demonstrated through applications to the short term forecasts of the biweekly GSL volume. The SVM based reconstruction is used to develop time series forecasts for multiple lead times ranging from the period of two weeks to several months. The reliability of the algorithm in learning and forecasting the dynamics is tested using split sample sensitivity analyses, with a particular interest in forecasting extreme states. Unlike previously reported methodologies, SVMs are able to extract the dynamics using only a few past observed data points (Support Vectors, SV) out of the training examples. Considering statistical measures, the prediction model based on SVM demonstrated encouraging and promising results in a short-term prediction. Thus, the SVM method presented in this study suggests a competitive methodology for the forecast of hydrologic time series.

Neurobiological Factors of Suicide (자살의 신경생물학적 요인)

  • Song, Hoo Rim;Woo, Young Sup;Jun, Tae Youn
    • Mood & Emotion
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2012
  • Suicide is a complex behavior associated with various neurobiological and psychosocial factors. It is considered that genetic polymorphism combined with environmental stress such as child-adolescent trauma make differences in neurobiological systems, which cause psychiatric disorders or pessimistic personality, impulse-aggressive behaviors, lack of judgment, and finally result in suicidal behavior. Much progress in the neurobiology of suicide has been made over the several decades. There seems to be a hereditary disposition to suicide independent of psychiatric disorder. The changes in neurotransmitters, neurohormones, neurotrophic factors, cytokines, lipid metabolisms related with their genetic polymorphism can contribute to disturbance of signal transductions and neuronal circuits vulnerable to suicide. It is likely that the main factors are dysfunctions of serotonin (5-HT) and hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis. Our understanding about the neurobiology of suicide is still limited. However, clinical practice could be assisted by neurobiological findings capable of making the detection of risk populations with higher sensitivity and the development of new treatment interventions. The settlement of biological markers in suicidal behaviors and their relationships is required.

Development Study of a Predictive Model for the Possibility of Collection Delinquent Health Insurance Contributions (체납된 건강보험료 징수 가능성 예측모형 개발 연구)

  • Young-Kyoon Na
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.450-456
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    • 2023
  • Background: This study aims to develop a "Predictive Model for the Possibility of Collection Delinquent Health Insurance Contributions" for the National Health Insurance Service to enhance administrative efficiency in protecting and collecting contributions from livelihood-type defaulters. Additionally, it aims to establish customized collection management strategies based on individuals' ability to pay health insurance contributions. Methods: Firstly, to develop the "Predictive Model for the Possibility of Collection Delinquent Health Insurance Contributions," a series of processes including (1) analysis of defaulter characteristics, (2) model estimation and performance evaluation, and (3) model derivation will be conducted. Secondly, using the predictions from the model, individuals will be categorized into four types based on their payment ability and livelihood status, and collection strategies will be provided for each type. Results: Firstly, the regression equation of the prediction model is as follows: phat = exp (0.4729 + 0.0392 × gender + 0.00894 × age + 0.000563 × total income - 0.2849 × low-income type enrollee - 0.2271 × delinquency frequency + 0.9714 × delinquency action + 0.0851 × reduction) / [1 + exp (0.4729 + 0.0392 × gender + 0.00894 × age + 0.000563 × total income - 0.2849 × low-income type enrollee - 0.2271 × delinquency frequency + 0.9714 × delinquency action + 0.0851 × reduction)]. The prediction performance is an accuracy of 86.0%, sensitivity of 87.0%, and specificity of 84.8%. Secondly, individuals were categorized into four types based on livelihood status and payment ability. Particularly, the "support needed group," which comprises those with low payment ability and low-income type enrollee, suggests enhancing contribution relief and support policies. On the other hand, the "high-risk group," which comprises those without livelihood type and low payment ability, suggests implementing stricter default handling to improve collection rates. Conclusion: Upon examining the regression equation of the prediction model, it is evident that individuals with lower income levels and a history of past defaults have a lower probability of payment. This implies that defaults occur among those without the ability to bear the burden of health insurance contributions, leading to long-term defaults. Social insurance operates on the principles of mandatory participation and burden based on the ability to pay. Therefore, it is necessary to develop policies that consider individuals' ability to pay, such as transitioning livelihood-type defaulters to medical assistance or reducing insurance contribution burdens.

Korean representation of biotechnology : For college students and lay adults (생명공학에 대한 한국인들의 표상: 대학생들과 일반 성인들을 중심으로)

  • Kyo-Heon Kim
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.165-187
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    • 2002
  • This study examines Korean representation of the biotechnology and psychological factors which can influence lay people's perception and attitude about biotechnology. Korean college students(N=433) and lay adults(N=90) whom had college education participated in the study. Participants of the study 1 were asked to list words which comes to mind when associate with the biotechnology in broad sense, and several specific applications in health, medicines, agriculture and research. Participants of the study 2 were asked to list possible benefits and costs of biotechnology and their specific applications. In study 3, Participants responded the questionnaires about perceptions and attitudes of biotechnology. Korean people associated the biotechnology with its costs or risks and benefits. Korean college students mainly got the informations of the biotechnology from TV, newspapers, or internet. They trusted the scientist group and NGO group on their judgements about the assessment of risk and benefit of the biotechnology. College students showed the positive attitude with the applications in medicines and negative attitude with the applications in agriculture and public using of individual's genetic information. The radicalism, sensitivity in behavioral activation system, and trust/cynicism were to be found as a significant influencing factor for interest/knowledge and behavioral intention in related with biotechnology. Finally, more extensive knowledge of biotechnology did not lead to greater acceptance of it.

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The Value of Adding Ductography to Ultrasonography for the Evaluation of Pathologic Nipple Discharge in Women with Negative Mammography

  • Younjung Choi;Sun Mi Kim;Mijung Jang;Bo La Yun;Eunyoung Kang;Eun-Kyu Kim;So Yeon Park;Bohyoung Kim;Nariya Cho;Woo Kyung Moon
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.23 no.9
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    • pp.866-877
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    • 2022
  • Objective: The optimal imaging approach for evaluating pathological nipple discharge remains unclear. We investigated the value of adding ductography to ultrasound (US) for evaluating pathologic nipple discharge in patients with negative mammography findings. Materials and Methods: From July 2003 to December 2018, 101 women (mean age, 46.3 ± 12.2 years; range, 23-75 years) with pathologic nipple discharge were evaluated using pre-ductography (initial) US, ductography, and post-ductography US. The imaging findings were reviewed retrospectively. The standard reference was surgery (70 patients) or > 2 years of follow-up with US (31 patients). The diagnostic performances of initial US, ductography, and post-ductography US for detecting malignancy were compared using the McNemar's test or a generalized estimating equation. Results: In total, 47 papillomas, 30 other benign lesions, seven high-risk lesions, and 17 malignant lesions were identified as underlying causes of pathologic nipple discharge. Only eight of the 17 malignancies were detected on the initial US, while the remaining nine malignancies were detected by ductography. Among the nine malignancies detected by ductography, eight were detected on post-ductography US and could be localized for US-guided intervention. The sensitivities of ductography (94.1% [16/17]) and post-ductography US (94.1% [16/17]) were significantly higher than those of initial US (47.1% [8/17]; p = 0.027 and 0.013, respectively). The negative predictive value of post-ductography US (96.9% [31/32]) was significantly higher than that of the initial US (83.3% [45/54]; p = 0.006). Specificity was significantly higher for initial US than for ductography and post-ductography US (p = 0.001 for all). Conclusion: The combined use of ductography and US has a high sensitivity for detecting malignancy in patients with pathologic nipple discharge and negative mammography. Ductography findings enable lesion localization on second-look post-ductography US, thus facilitating the selection of optimal treatment plans.