• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk scenario

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Flood risk estimation with scenario-based, coupled river-overland hydrodynamic modeling (시나리오 기반 하천-제내지 연계 통합수리해석에 의한 홍수위험도 산정)

  • Lee, Jae Young;Nam, Myeong Jun;Kwon, Hyun Han;Kim, Ki Young
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.9
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    • pp.773-787
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    • 2016
  • A coupled river-overland hydrodynamic model was applied to estimate flood risk by a scenario-based approach. The study area is Seongseo Industrial Complex in Daegu which is located near Nakdong river and Geumho river. Inundation depth and velocity at each time were calculated by applying a coupled 1D/2D hydrodynamic model to the target area of interest. The 2D inundation analysis for river and overland domain was performed with the scenario-based approach that there are levee overflow against 100/200 year high quantile (97.5%) design flood and levee break against 100/200 year normal quantile (50%) design flood. The level of flood risk was displayed for resident/industrial area using information about maximum depth and velocity of each node computed from the 2D inundation map. The research outcome would be very useful in establishing specified emergency action plans (EAP) in case of levee break and overflowing resulting from a flood.

Risk Assessment of Triclosan, a Cosmetic Preservative

  • Lee, Jung Dae;Lee, Joo Young;Kwack, Seung Jun;Shin, Chan Young;Jang, Hyun-Jun;Kim, Hyang Yeon;Kim, Min Kook;Seo, Dong-Wan;Lee, Byung-Mu;Kim, Kyu-Bong
    • Toxicological Research
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.137-154
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    • 2019
  • Triclosan (TCS) is an antimicrobial compound used in consumer products. The purpose of current study was to examine toxicology and risk assessment of TCS based on available data. Acute toxicities of oral, transdermal and inhalation routes were low, and phototoxicity and neurotoxicity were not observed. Topical treatment of TCS to animal caused mild irritation. TCS did not induce reproductive and developmental toxicity in rodents. In addition, genotoxicity was not considered based on in vitro and in vivo tests of TCS. It is not classified as a carcinogen in international authorities such as International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). No-observed-adverse-effect level (NOAEL) was determined 12 mg/kg bw/day for TCS, based on haematoxicity and reduction of absolute and relative spleen weights in a 104-week oral toxicity study in rats. Percutaneous absorption rate was set as 14%, which was human skin absorption study reported by National Industrial Chemicals Notification and Assessment Scheme (NICNAS) (2009). The systemic exposure dosage (SED) of TCS has been derived by two scenarios depending on the cosmetics usage of Koreans. The first scenario is the combined use of representative cosmetics and oral care products. The second scenario is the combined use of rinse-off products of cleansing, deodorants, coloring products, and oral care products. SEDs have been calculated as 0.14337 mg/kg bw/day for the first scenario and 0.04733 mg/kg bw/day for the second scenario. As a result, margin of safety (MOS) for the first and second scenarios was estimated to 84 and 253.5, respectively. Based on these results, exposure of TCS contained in rinse-off products, deodorants, and coloring products would not pose a significant health risk when it is used up to 0.3%.

Risk Assessment of Arsenic-Contaminated Groundwater in Multiple Scenarios in a Rural Area of Gyeongnam Province, Korea (경남 농촌 지역 비소 오염 지하수의 시나리오별 위해성 평가)

  • Oh, Serim;Lee, Jin-Yong;Moon, Sang-Ho;Jang, Jiwook;Jeong, Eunju
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.437-448
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    • 2022
  • This work aims to assess the threat to human health of hazardous materials in groundwater that is used domestically and for drinking. Two distinct sub-assessments are considered: cancer and non-cancer risk. The studied groundwater is in an agricultural area of Gyeongnam Province, Korea, and is contaminated by arsenic at a mean level of 16.27 ㎍/L, far greater than the WHO guideline (10 ㎍/L for drinking water). We collected groundwater data from the National Groundwater Information Center (gims.go.kr) and assessed the risk to human health following the methodology of the United States Environmental Protection Agency. We considered three exposure scenarios: domestic use (scenario 1) and drinking use with different doses (scenarios 2 and 3). Scenario 1 had a median hazard quotient (HQ) of 0.77 and a cancer risk (CR) of 0.013. Scenario 2 had a median HQ of 0.08 and a CR of 3.69 × 10-5, and the values for scenario 3 were 0.11 and 4.82 × 10-5, respectively. Scenario 1 is likely the most hazardous to human health. Further study of the origin of arsenic in groundwater in the study area is required, as are remedial measures to mitigate its health effects.

Risk Assessment Strategy for Decommissioning of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station

  • Yamaguchi, Akira;Jang, Sunghyon;Hida, Kazuki;Yamanaka, Yasunori;Narumiya, Yoshiyuki
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.442-449
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    • 2017
  • Risk management of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station decommissioning is a great challenge. In the present study, a risk management framework has been developed for the decommissioning work. It is applied to fuel assembly retrieval from Unit 3 spent fuel pool. Whole retrieval work is divided into three phases: preparation, retrieval, and transportation and storage. First of all, the end point has been established and the success path has been developed. Then, possible threats, which are internal/external and technical/societal/management, are identified and selected. "What can go wrong?" is a question about the failure scenario. The likelihoods and consequences for each scenario are roughly estimated. The whole decommissioning project will continue for several decades, i.e., long-term perspective is important. What should be emphasized is that we do not always have enough knowledge and experience of this kind. It is expected that the decommissioning can make steady and good progress in support of the proposed risk management framework. Thus, risk assessment and management are required, and the process needs to be updated in accordance with the most recent information and knowledge on the decommissioning works.

A Study on the Risk Evaluation for Chemical Transportation Tank Lorry of Chemical Plant (석유화학 사업장에서 운송 화학물질 위험관리)

  • Kim, Jeong-gon;Byun, Hun-Soo
    • Journal of Korean Society of societal Security
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.53-62
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    • 2008
  • Recently, the potential risks of tank lorry transportation from the petrochemical plant have been increasing, so the research was performed to build up the evaluation criterion of the transportation safety, as well as aggressive risk+assessment of a variety of chemical materials. This research was applied to the Maximum Credible Accident Analysis technique and modeled on the risk management of chemical transportation using the following four steps for risk evaluation, firstly the comparison of representative fype and standard of hand ling chemical materials transported by tank vehicles secondly, specific classification of potential hazards thirdly, grasp and recognition of virtual accident scenario at last, the risk evaluation of virtual accident scenario(qualitative/quantitative - chemical release modeling).

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Health Risk Assessment for Artificial Turf Playgrounds in School Athletic Facilities: Multi-route Exposure Estimation for Use Patterns

  • Kim, Ho-Hyun;Lim, Young-Wook;Kim, Sun-Duk;Yeo, In-Young;Shin, Dong-Chun;Yang, Ji-Yeon
    • Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.206-221
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    • 2012
  • Hazardous chemicals can be released from artificial turf used in some school playgrounds. To distinguish between Health risk assessment (HRA) exposure scenarios for this study, the ratio of elementary, middle and high schools was considered before final selection. Considering exposure pathways (inhalational, oral and dermal), media and materials were examined, targeting hazardous chemicals released from artificial turf playground-related products. Upon evaluation, the quantity of infill chips was shown to exceed the domestic product content standard (90 mg/kg) at eight (16%) out of 50 schools. PAHs were shown to exceed standards (10 mg/kg) at two (4%) out of the 50 schools. The excess cancer risk (ECR) of carcinogens was shown to be $1{\times}10^{-6}$ in most users for the worst exposure scenario. In children with pica, who represented the most extreme exposure group, the ECR was expected to be as high as $1{\times}10^{-4}$, showing the low risk level of carcinogens. The hazard index (HI) for individual chemicals was shown to be low, at around 0.1 or less, except for children with pica, according to the mean exposure scenario of artificial turf playground exposure. However, the HI was shown to exceed 1.0 in children with pica. Therefore, no direct health risk was found in using artificial turf playgrounds and urethane flooring tracks for the mean exposure scenario, except in children with pica.

Evaluation for conjunctive operation of multi-regional water supply system through risk analysis (위기대응 취약성 분석을 통한 광역상수도 연계운영 평가)

  • Hwang, Jinsoo;Choi, Taeho;Hong, Gonghyun;Lee, Doojin;Koo, Jayong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.269-279
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    • 2019
  • This study would present a risk analysis method to evaluate stable tap water supply in a multi-regional water supply system and propose a measure for the evaluation of the effect of the conjunctive operation of the multi-regional water supply system using this. Judging from the vulnerability for the crisis response of the entire N. multi-regional water supply system, as compared to the result of Scenario 1 in which no conjunctive pipes were operated, it was found that in Scenario 2, in which conjunctive pipes were partially operated, the vulnerability of crisis response decreased by about 30.6%, and as compared to Scenario 3, the vulnerability of crisis response decreased by 86.2%. In setting a plan for stable tap water supply in N multi-regional water supply system, using the estimated value and the method for the evaluation of the vulnerability of crisis response by pipe, by interval and by line, it is judged that this can be utilized as a basis for the judgment of the evaluation of the operation or the additional installation of conjunctive pipes.

A Study on Development of High Risk Test Scenario and Evaluation from Field Driving Conditions for Autonomous Vehicle (실도로 주행 조건 기반의 자율주행자동차 고위험도 평가 시나리오 개발 및 검증에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Seunghwan;Ryu, Je Myoung;Chung, Nakseung;Yu, Minsang;Pyun, Moo Song;Kim, Jae Bu
    • Journal of Auto-vehicle Safety Association
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.40-49
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    • 2018
  • Currently, a lot of researches about high risk test scenarios for autonomous vehicle and advanced driver assistance systems have been carried out to evaluate driving safety. This study proposes new type of test scenario that evaluate the driving safety for autonomous vehicle by reconstructing accident database of national automotive sampling system crashworthiness data system (NASS-CDS). NASS-CDS has a lot of detailed accident data in real fields, but there is no data of accurate velocity in accident moments. So in order to propose scenario generation method from accident database, we try to reconstruct accident moment from accident sketch diagram. At the same step, we propose an accident of occurrence frequency which is based on accident codes and road shapes. The reconstruction paths from accident database are integrated into evaluation of simulation environment. Our proposed methods and processor are applied to MILS (Model In the Loop Simulation) and VILS (Vehicle In the Loop Simulation) test environments. In this paper, a reasonable method of accident reconstruction typology for autonomous vehicle evaluation of feasibility is proposed.

Scenario-Based Exposure Risk Assessment of Molinate in a Paddy Plot ; (2) Exposure Risk Assessment (시나리오별 논에서의 molinate 노출위험도 분석: (2) 노출위험도 평가)

  • Park, Ki-Jung;Chung, Sang-Ok
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.17-24
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    • 2008
  • Exposure risk assessment of pesticide molinate using the RICEWQ model in a rice paddy plot was performed to observe the effects of various water and pesticide management scenarios. Several scenarios were developed to represent the specific water and pesticide management practices of rice cultivation in Korea. The results of the scenario analysis using the RICEWQ model simulation from the previous studies were analysed. The molinate risk for aquatic organisms is evaluated by the ratio of the predicted environmental concentration(PEC) and the predicted no-effect concentration(PNEC). The results showed that the no-effect periods for aquatic organisms for the deep, shallow and very shallow irrigation conditions were 33.3, 28.9 and 25.6 DATs for the lable rate application and 36.4, 33.7 and 30.8 DATs for the double lable rate application, respectively. The higher application rate showed greater exposure risk to the aquatic organisms. Based on this study, the withholding period of molinate practiced in Korea, that is 3 to 4 DATs, must be much longer. The results of this study can be used for the non-point source pollution control and environmental policy making regarding pesticides.