• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk scenario

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AIMS-MUPSA software package for multi-unit PSA

  • Han, Sang Hoon;Oh, Kyemin;Lim, Ho-Gon;Yang, Joon-Eon
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.50 no.8
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    • pp.1255-1265
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    • 2018
  • The need for a PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) for a multi-unit at a site is growing after the Fukushima accident. Many countries have been studying issues regarding a multi-unit PSA. One of these issues is the problem of many combinations of accident sequences in a multi-unit PSA. This paper deals with the methodology and software to quantify a PSA scenarios for a multi-unit site. Two approaches are developed to quantify a multi-unit PSA. One is to use a minimal cut set approach, and the other is to use a Monte Carlo approach.

Quantitative microbial risk assessment indicates very low risk for Vibrio parahaemolyticus foodborne illness from Jeotgal in South Korea

  • Choi, Yukyung;Kang, Joohyun;Lee, Yewon;Seo, Yeongeun;Kim, Sejeong;Ha, Jimyeong;Oh, Hyemin;Kim, Yujin;Park, Eunyoung;Lee, Heeyoung;Lee, Soomin;Rhee, Min Suk;Yoon, Yohan
    • Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.25 no.9
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    • pp.463-472
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    • 2022
  • In this study, a microbial risk assessment was performed for the bacteria Vibrio parahaemolyticus, which causes a foodborne illness following the consumption of Jeotgal, a fermented seafood in South Korea. The assessment comprised of six stages: product, market, home, consumption, dose-response, and risk. The initial contamination level (IC) was calculated based on the prevalence of V. parahaemolyticus in 90 Jeotgal samples. The kinetic behavior of V. parahaemolyticus was described using predictive models. The data on transportation conditions from manufacturer to market and home were collected through personal communication and from previous studies. Data for the Jeotgal consumption status were obtained, and an appropriate probability distribution was established. The simulation models responding to the scenario were analyzed using the @RISK program. The IC of V. parahaemolyticus was estimated using beta distribution [Beta (1, 91)]. The cell counts during transportation were estimated using Weibull and polynomial models [δ = 1 / (0.0718 - 0.0097 × T + 0.0005 × T2)], while the probability distributions for time and temperature were estimated using Pert, Weibull, Uniform, and LogLogistic distributions. Daily average consumption amounts were assessed using the Pareto distribution [0.60284,1.32,Risk Truncate(0,155)]. The results indicated that the risk of V. parahaemolyticus infection through Jeotgal consumption is low in South Korea.

Asbestos Exposure and Risk Assessment by ABS(Activity Based Sampling) for Former Asbestos Mining Areas in Korea (우리나라 일부 석면광산 지역에서 ABS를 이용한 석면노출 및 위해성 평가)

  • Lee, Junhyeok;Kim, Daejong;Choi, Sungwon;Kim, Hyunwook
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.72-81
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    • 2015
  • Objectives: The aim of this study was to investigate the exposure and risk assessment of residents near asbestos mines in Korea. Methods: To assess asbestos types and airborne concentrations, air monitoring was performed in the neighborhoods of Kwangcheon (KC) and Sinsuk (SS) mines, which were leading South Korean mines in the past. In addition, activity-based-sampling (ABS) of residents' particular activities were conducted in order to estimate the Excess Lifetime Cancer Risks (ELCRs) for the residents. Conclusions: The average concentration of airborne asbestos in KC was 0.0014 f/cc and 0.0015 f/cc by PCM and TEM, respectively. In SS it was equal at 0.0012 f/cc by PCM and TEM. No statistically significant difference was found in the average concentration of airborne asbestos between the two mines. The average asbestos concentration of ABS was 0.0048 f/cc (PCM) and 0.0042 f/cc (TEM) in KC, while it was 0.0137 f/cc (PCM) and 0.0125 f/cc (TEM) in SS. It was found that the average asbestos concentration of ABS in SS was statistically significantly higher than that of KC (p<0.01). The results of ELCRs by scenario in KC showed that the scenarios of bicycle, car, weed control, weed whacking, child playing in the dirt, and physical training fell within $1{\times}0^{-6}-1{\times}10^{-4}$, which is the acceptable range of ELCR. The scenarios of motorcycle, walker, digging, and field sweeping, however, exceeded the acceptable range. In SS, only the scenario of car fell within the acceptable range, while all of the other scenarios exceeded the acceptable range.

Risk factors of fisher on stow net fishing vessel using analysis of adjudication (재결서 분석을 통한 안강망어선에 승선하는 선원의 위험요인)

  • KIM, Wook-Sung;HYUN, Yun-Ki;LEE, Yoo-Won
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.56 no.2
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    • pp.155-162
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    • 2020
  • The adjudication of Korean Maritime Safety Tribunal (KMST) was analyzed to collect basic data to identify the cause of the risk that did not appear in the current data provided by the fishermen's occupational accidents of the National Federation of Fisheries Cooperative (NFFC) in stow net fishing vessel from 2015 to 2019. The personnel's carelessness was the most common in 29 out of 33 accidents (87.9%), followed by 25 cases (75.8%) of inadequacy of instructions, 24 cases (72.7%) of inadequacy of education on hazard factor, 20 cases (60.6%) of no personal protection equipment, 18 cases (54.5%) of poor guard, 17 cases (51.5%) of inadequacy of work method, 16 cases (48.5%) of absence of emergency stop button, 14 cases (42.4%) of work practice of poor safety precautions that affected more than 40% of all accidents as accident causes. These causes had a strong influence on each other, and the ratio of accident causes is high. With this relationship, accidents can be prevented or the severity of human injury can be reduced if types of accident process can be estimated with a scenario, and the key points before the accident in the scenario are switched to safe points.

Safety management service using voice chatbot for risks response of field workers (현장 작업자 위험대응을 위한 음성챗봇을 이용한 안전관리 서비스)

  • Yun-Hee Kang;Chang-Su Park;Yong-Hak Lee;Dong-Ho Kim;Eui-Gu Kim;Myung-Ju Kang
    • Journal of Platform Technology
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.79-88
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    • 2023
  • Recently, industrial accidents have continued to increase due to the industrialization, and worker safety management is recognized as essential to reduce losses due to hazardous factors at work places. To manage the safety of workers, it is required to apply customized safety management artificial intelligence technology that takes into account the characteristics of industrial sites, and a service for real-time risk detection and response to workers depending on the situation based on safety accident types and risk analysis for each task and process. The proposed safety management service consists of worker devices to acquire sensor data, edge devices to collect from IoT-based sensors, and a voice chatbot to support workers' disaster response. The voice chatbot plays a major role in interacting with workers at disaster sites to respond to risks. This paper focuses on real-time risk response using an IoT-based system and voice chatbot on a server for work safety according to the worker's situation. A Scenario-based voice chatbot is used to process responses at the edge level to provide safety management services.

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A Study on the Fire Scenarios according to Initial Fire Source Classification and Fire Statistics Investigation of Business & Sales Faciliteis (업무·판매시설의 화재통계조사 및 초기화원분류를 통한 화재시나리오에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Byeong-Heun;Kwon, Young-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.42-43
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    • 2017
  • In Korea, The buildings are getting higher and bigger, and also the fire risk is getting increased. The PBD was introduced in 2009 for the fire safety of these buildings, but the study on making scenario based on actual case of fire is insufficient. Therefore on this study, it will conduct an experiment about initial fire classification and making fire scenario based on that actual fire statistic investigation classification of PBD buildings as official and commercial facilities.

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Analysis of Response Status Based on Cyber Crisis Scenario (사이버 위기 시나리오 기반 대응 현황 분석)

  • Lee, Daesung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.296-297
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    • 2019
  • An effective crisis management system capable of responding early in the event of a major disaster or cyber crisis is needed not only within the organization but also with the partner organizations and the outside. In this paper, we review the domestic and international countermeasures against major disasters and cyber crises, and discuss the emerging crisis responses and future prospects along with the development of ICT technology.

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THE RESEARCH ON CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF LNG PLANT PROJECT PLANNING EXPERT SYSTEM

  • Moon-Sun Park;Young-Ai Kim;Seung-Wook Lee;Sung-Ryul Bae;Hyun-Wook Kang;Byoung-Jun Min;Yong-Su Kim
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.1570-1575
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this research is to propose the conceptual model of Scenario-based Project Planning Expert System which has not been used in domestic LNG plant industry. This research examines data on the plant project planning expert system of domestic and oversea, analyzes the components of project planning expert systems and benchmark excellent cases. The conceptual model of LNG plant project planning expert system is established through the procedure as has been noted above. The results of this research are as follows: First, this research draws out such components of LNG plant project planning expert system as feasibility, cost control, contract management and risk management. Second, this research proposes the conceptual model of LNG plant project planning expert system which core module is consist of feasibility evaluation, life cycle cost evaluation and decision making. Finally, each module of LNG plant project planning expert system would be integrated into the Scenario-based Project Planning Expert System.

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A Study on the Quantitative Risk Assessment of Hydrogen-CNG Complex Refueling Station (수소-CNG 복합충전소 정량적 위험성평가에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Seung-Kyu;Huh, Yun-Sil
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.41-48
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    • 2020
  • This study performed a quantitative risk assessment for hydrogen-CNG complex refueling stations. Individual and societal risks were calculated by deriving accident scenarios that could occur at hydrogen and CNG refueling stations and by considering the frequency of accidents occurring for each scenario. As a result of the risk assessment, societal risk levels were within the acceptable range. However, individual risk has occurred outside the allowable range in some areas. To identify and manage risk components, high risk components were discovered through risk contribution analysis. High risks at the hydrogen-CNG complex refueling station were large leakage from CNG storage containers, compressors, and control panels. The sum of these risks contributed to approximately 88% of the overall risk of the fueling station. Therefore, periodic and intensive safety management should be performed for these high-risk elements.

SUMRAY: R and Python Codes for Calculating Cancer Risk Due to Radiation Exposure of a Population

  • Michiya Sasaki;Kyoji Furukawa;Daiki Satoh;Kazumasa Shimada;Shin'ichi Kudo;Shunji Takagi;Shogo Takahara;Michiaki Kai
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.90-99
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    • 2023
  • Background: Quantitative risk assessments should be accompanied by uncertainty analyses of the risk models employed in the calculations. In this study, we aim to develop a computational code named SUMRAY for use in cancer risk projections from radiation exposure taking into account uncertainties. We also aim to make SUMRAY publicly available as a resource for further improvement of risk projection. Materials and Methods: SUMRAY has two versions of code written in R and Python. The risk models used in SUMRAY for all-solid-cancer mortality and incidence were those published in the Life Span Study of a cohort of the atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The confidence intervals associated with the evaluated risks were derived by propagating the statistical uncertainties in the risk model parameter estimates by the Monte Carlo method. Results and Discussion: SUMRAY was used to calculate the lifetime or time-integrated attributable risks of cancer under an exposure scenario (baseline rates, dose[s], age[s] at exposure, age at the end of follow-up, sex) specified by the user. The results were compared with those calculated using another well-known web-based tool, Radiation Risk Assessment Tool (RadRAT; National Institutes of Health), and showed a reasonable agreement within the estimated confidential interval. Compared with RadRAT, SUMRAY can be used for a wide range of applications, as it allows the risk projection with arbitrarily specified risk models and/or population reference data. Conclusion: The reliabilities of SUMRAY with the present risk-model parameters and their variance-covariance matrices were verified by comparing them with those of the other codes. The SUMRAY code is distributed to the public as an open-source code under the Massachusetts Institute of Technology license.