• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk quantification

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Quantification of the Sub-lethal Toxicity of Metals and Endocrine-disrupting Chemicals to the Marine Green Microalga Tetraselmis suecica

  • Ebenezer, Vinitha;Ki, Jang-Seu
    • Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.187-194
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    • 2013
  • Microalgae are sensitive indicators of environmental changes, and hence they are widely used in environmental risk assessments and for the development of discharge guidelines. Here we evaluated the toxicity of metals and endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) to the marine green microalga, Tetraselmis suecica. The toxicants investigated included the metals, Cu, Ni, and Pb; and the EDCs, bisphenol A (BPA), endosulfan (ES), and polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB). The endpoints were variations in cell counts and chlorophyll a levels. T. suecica displayed a varied pattern of sensitivity to the toxicants. Based on the 72-h median effective concentration ($EC_{50}$), ES (0.045 mg/L) was most toxic to T. suecica, followed by PCB (3.96 mg/L) and Pb (9.62 mg/L). Interestingly, T. suecica was relatively tolerant to Cu (43.03 mg/L). The 72-h $EC_{50}$ values of Ni and BPA were approximately 16 mg/L. Our data suggest that this species may be relatively tolerant to most of the chemicals within their permissible limits in the environment.

Key Findings from the Artist Project on Aerosol Retention in a Dry Steam Generator

  • Dehbi, Abdelouahab;Suckow, Detlef;Lind, Terttaliisa;Guentay, Salih;Danner, Steffen;Mukin, Roman
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.48 no.4
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    • pp.870-880
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    • 2016
  • A steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) event with a stuck-open safety relief valve constitutes one of the most serious accident sequences in pressurized water reactors (PWRs) because it may create an open path for radioactive aerosol release into the environment. The release may be mitigated by the deposition of fission product particles on a steam generator's (SG's) dry tubes and structures or by scrubbing in the secondary coolant. However, the absence of empirical data, the complexity of the geometry, and the controlling processes have, until recently, made any quantification of retention difficult to justify. As a result, past risk assessment studies typically took little or no credit for aerosol retention in SGTR sequences. To provide these missing data, the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) initiated the Aerosol Trapping In Steam GeneraTor (ARTIST) Project, which aimed to thoroughly investigate various aspects of aerosol removal in the secondary side of a breached steam generator. Between 2003 and 2011, the PSI has led the ARTIST Project, which involved intense collaboration between nearly 20 international partners. This summary paper presents key findings of experimental and analytical work conducted at the PSI within the ARTIST program.

A Probabilistic Analysis on the Repair and Replacement Cost of Educational Facilities (교육시설물의 수선교체비용에 대한 확률론적 분석 연구)

  • Yu, Yeong-jin;Son, Kiyoung;Kim, Ji-Myong;Kim, Taihui
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Educational Facilities
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.3-12
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    • 2018
  • Educational facilities are more uncertain about maintenance costs due to their comprehensive and long life-cycle compared to commercial buildings. In addition, maintenance of the existing post management system can not maintain the original function of education facilities continuously and economically. In order to overcome this problem, it is necessary to analyze the repair and replacement cost for the uncertainty factor in maintenance. This study propose a model to determine repair and maintenance cost and cycle of educational facility based on probabilistic estimation concept. For the analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, a probabilistic analysis method, was applied based on the repair and maintenance history data of the educational facilities in Florida. The results of this study can be used as a guideline for quantitative facility management and facility management research.

A Formal Guidance for Handling Different Uncertainty Sources Employed in the Level 2 PSA

  • Ahn Kwang-Il;Yang Joon-Eon;Ha Jae-Joo
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.83-103
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    • 2004
  • The methodological framework of the Level 2 PSA appears to be currently standardized in a formalized fashion, but there have been different opinions on the way the sources of uncertainty are characterized and treated. This is primarily because the Level 2 PSA deals with complex phenomenological processes that are deterministic in nature rather than random processes, and there are no probabilistic models characterizing them clearly. As a result, the probabilistic quantification of the Level 2 PSA CET / APET is often subjected to two sources of uncertainty: (a) incomplete modeling of accident pathways or different predictions for the behavior of phenomenological events and (b) expert-to-expert variation in estimating the occurrence probability of phenomenological events. While a clear definition of the two sources of uncertainty involved in the Level 2 PSA makes it possible to treat an uncertainty in a consistent manner, careless application of these different sources of uncertainty may produce different conclusions in the decision-making process. The primary purpose of this paper is to characterize typical sources of uncertainty that would often be addressed in the Level 2 PSA and to provide a formal guidance for quantifying their impacts on the PSA Level 2 risk results. An additional purpose of this paper is to give a formal approach on how to combine random uncertainties addressed in the Level 1 PSA with subjectivistic uncertainties addressed in the Level 2 PSA.

A Study on the Quantitative Determination of Failure Effect Probability for Criticality Analysis on System (시스템의 치명도 분석을 위한 고장영향확률 정량화 방안 연구)

  • Lee, Myeong-seok;Choi, Seong-Dae;Hur, Jang-wook
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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    • v.18 no.8
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    • pp.31-37
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    • 2019
  • The inter-development of FMECA is very important to assess the effect of potential failures during system operation on mission, safety and performance. Among these, criticality analysis is a core task that identifies items with high risk and selects the analyzed objects as the key management targets and reflects their effects to the design optimization. In this paper, we analyze the theory related to criticality analysis following US military standard, and propose a method to quantify the failure effect probability for objective criticality analysis. The criticality analysis according to the US military standard depends on the subjective judgment of the failure probability. The methodology for quantifying the failure effect probability is presented by using the reliability theory and the Bayes theorem. The failure rate is calculated by applying the method to quantify failure effect probability.

Effect of intracanal cryotherapy on postendodontic pain: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

  • Gupta, Alpa;Aggarwal, Vivek;Gurawa, Alka;Mehta, Namrata;Abraham, Dax;Singh, Arundeep;Jala, Sucheta;Chauhan, Nishant
    • Journal of Dental Anesthesia and Pain Medicine
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.15-27
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    • 2021
  • This systematic review aimed to qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of cryotherapy in the reduction of postendodontic pain. The review question was, "What will be the success rate of cryotherapy technique among human patients with postendodontic pain?". The review protocol was framed according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) checklist. Six studies were included in the review, and quantification of five studies was performed through a meta-analysis. In the forest plot representation of the studies comparing the control and cryotherapy groups in terms of the success rate in the management of postendodontic pain, the combined risk ratio (RR) was 0.80 (95% CI: 0.56 to 1.13) with a P value of 0.20. Based on the quantitative analysis, it can be suggested that intracanal cryotherapy does not play a significant role in reducing postendodontic pain.

Daily Amperometric Monitoring of Immunoglobulin E in a Mouse Whole Blood: Model of Ovalbumin Induced Asthma

  • Lee, Ju Kyung;Yoon, Sung-hoon;Kim, Sang Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Electrochemical Society
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2022
  • There is an increasing interest in monitoring of specific biomarker for determining progression of a disease or efficacy of a treatment. Conventional method for quantification of specific biomarkers as enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) has high material costs, long incubation periods, requires large volume of samples and involves special instruments, which necessitates clinical samples to be sent to a lab. This paper reports on the development of an electrochemical biosensor to measure total immunoglobulin E (IgE), a marker of asthma disease that varies with age, gender, and disease in concentrations from 0.3-1000 ng/mL with consuming 20 µL volume of whole blood sample. The sensor provides rapid, accurate, easy, point-of-care measurement of IgE, also, sequential monitoring of total IgE with ovalbumin (OVA) induced mice is another application of sensor. Taken together, these results provide an alternative way for detection of biomarkers in whole blood with low volumes and long-term ex-vivo assessments for understanding the progression of a disease.

Exploring the factors responsible for variation in streamflow using different Budyko-base functions

  • Shah, Sabab Ali;Jehanzaib, Muhammad;Kim, Min Ji;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.140-140
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    • 2022
  • Recently an accurate quantification of streamflow under various climatological and anthropogenic factors and separation of their relative contribution remains challenging, because variation in streamflow may result in hydrological disasters. In this study, we evaluated the factors responsible for variation in streamflow in Korean watersheds, quantified separately their contribution using different Budyko-based functions, and identified hydrological breakpoint points. After detecting that the hydrological break point in 1995 and time series were divided into natural period (1966-1995), and disturbed period (1996-2014). During the natural period variation in climate tended to increase change in streamflow. However, in the disturbed period both climate variation and anthropogenic activities tended to increase streamflow variation in the watershed. Subsequently, the findings acquired from different Budyko-based functions were observed sensitive to selection of function. The variation in streamflow was observed in the response of change in climatic parameters ranging 46 to 75% (average 60%). The effects of anthropogenic activities were observed less compared to climate variation accounts 25 to 54% (average 40%). Furthermore, the relative contribution was observed to be sensitive corresponding to Budyko-based functions utilized. Moreover, relative impacts of both factors have capability to enhance uncertainty in the management of water resources. Thus, this knowledge would be essential for the implementation of water management spatial and temporal scale to reduce the risk of hydrological disasters in the watershed.

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Numerical Investigation of Large-capacity Wind Turbine Wake Impact on Drone system during Maintenance (수치해석 활용 대용량 풍력발전시스템 유지보수 시 타워 및 블레이드 후류에 따른 드론 블레이드 간섭 연구)

  • Jun-Young Lee;Hyun-Choi Jung;Jae-ho Jeong
    • Journal of Wind Energy
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.100-108
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    • 2023
  • The aim of this study is to develop guidelines for predicting interference between drones and wakes during non-destructive blade inspections in wind power systems. The wake generated by wind towers and blades can affect the stability of drone flights, necessitating the establishment of guidelines to ensure safe and efficient inspections. In order to predict the interference between drones and blades, environmental variables must be considered, including quantification of turbulence intensity in the wake generated by the tower and blades, as well as determining the appropriate distance between the drone and the tower/blades for flight stability. To achieve this, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis was performed using cross-sectional geometries corresponding to the main wind turbine blade and tower span locations. Based on the CFD analysis results, a safe flight path for drones is proposed, which minimizes the risk of collision and interference with towers and blades during maintenance operations of wind power systems. Implementation of the proposed guidelines is expected to enhance the safety and efficiency of maintenance work.

The Comparative Quantitative Risk Assessment of LNG Tank Designs for the Safety Improvement of Above Ground Membrane Tank (지상식 멤브레인 LNG저장탱크 안전성 향상을 위한 설계형식별 정량적 위험성 비교 평가)

  • Lee S.R.;Kwon B.G.;Lee S.H.
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.9 no.4 s.29
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    • pp.57-61
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    • 2005
  • The objective of paper is to carry out a comparative Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of two KOGAS tank designs using a fault tree methodology, a standard 'Full Containment' tank and a 'Membrane' tank. For the membrane tank, both the initial KOGAS design and 4 modified KOGAS designs have been assessed, giving six separate cases. In this paper, the frequencies of releases are quantified using a fault tree approach. For clarity in the analysis, and to ensure consistency, all cases have been quantified using the same fault tree. Logic within the fault tree is used to select each of the cases. Full quantification of risks is often difficult, owing to a lack of relevant failure data, but the aim of this study has been to be as quantitative as possible, with full transparency of failure information. The most significant general cause of external LNG leaks is predicted to be a seismic event, which has been quantified nominally. 4modified KOGAS desiens to Prevent damage of bottom membrane panels that was shown in preparatory estimation could quantitively confirm safety improvement. According to result, the predicted frequencies of an external LNG leak for the full containment and modified membrane tanks are very similar, failures due to dropped pumps are predicted to be significantly greater for the membrane tank with thickened plate than for the full containment tank.

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