• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk of Investment

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Analyzing Dynamics of Korean Housing Market Using Causal Loop Structures (주택시장의 동태성 분석을 위한 시스템 사고의 적용에 관한 연구 - 인과순환지도를 중심으로 -)

  • Shin Hye-Sung;Sohn Jeong-Rak;Kim Jae-Jun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.6 no.3 s.25
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    • pp.144-155
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    • 2005
  • Since 1950s, the Korean housing market has continually experienced the chronicle lack of housing stock because of lower housing investment in comparison with a population explosion, prompt urbanization and rapid restructuring of family. The Korean housing market have thus been driven not by the pricing model by housing demand-supply chain but by the Korean housing policies focusing on the increase of housing supply and the living stability of the middle or low-income bracket. After all, repetitive economic vicious circle of housing price and the increase of unsold apartments aggravated the malfunction of the Korean housing market. Meanwhile, the Korean construction firms have exacerbated their profitability. Such terrible situations are mainly triggered by the Korean construction firms that weighed on the short-term profits and quick response of the government policy alterations rather than the prospect of housing market Therefore, this research focusing on the dynamics of housing market identified and classified the demand and supply elements that consist not only of housing system structures but also of the environmental elements that affect the structures. Based on the system thinking and traditional theory of consumer's choice, the interactions of these elements were constructed as a causal loop diagram that explains the mutual influences among housing subsystems with feedback loops. This paper describes and discusses about the causes of the dynamic changes in the Korean housing market. This study would help housing suppliers, including housing developers, construction firms, etc., to form a more comprehensive understanding on the fundamental issues that constitute the Korean housing market and thereby increasing their long term as well as minimizing the risk involved in the housing supply businesses.

A Study on Determinants of the Number of Banking Relationships in Korea: Firm-specific Determinants and Effects of Business Cycle (우리나라 기업의 거래은행 수 결정요인에 관한 연구: 경기변동의 영향을 포함하여)

  • Hwang, Soo-Young;Lee, Jung-Jin
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.53-80
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the determinants of the number of bank relationships in Korea. Firm-specific determinants considered here include leverage, size, age, return on asset, investment grade, tangibility, liquidity, R&D expenditure. We estimate the effects of these variables, and compare the results with those from previous studies performed for other economies. Concerning the effects of business cycle, we find that the business cycle is an important factor in determining the number of bank relationships. The number of bank relationships varies over the business cycle, and we notice a counter-cyclical behavior, which means the number decreases during economic expansions and increases during contractions. This result can be interpreted as a result of firms' diversification of borrowings into multiple banks in order to reduce the liquidity risk during the recession. In the subsets, however, the number of bank relationships for large firms is stable regardless of the business cycle. Unlisted firms, non-chaebol, and low credit quality firms which have relatively limited access to alternative sources of financing show counter-cyclical behavior. Finally, such phenomena is not observed in the non-competitive credit market, while they show a counter-cyclical behavior in the competitive credit market.

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Effectiveness of Public Credit Guarantee System and Its Coexistence with Market-based Finance Schemes (공적보증의 효과성과 시장기반 금융제도와의 공존)

  • Noh, Yong-Hwan;Hong, Jaekeun
    • The Journal of Small Business Innovation
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2016
  • Korean government had used public 'credit guarantee schemes' (CGS) as a counter-cyclical measure. However, it is still controversial about the effectiveness of policy financing on the SMEs. Criticism on policy financing involves the argument that supporting enterprises hampers competition and innovation of SMEs by increasing their dependence on the government and delays the exit of marginal firms. In this paper, we investigate how to effectively build up the rationale of running public CGSs. At the same time, we propose the ways to coexist of public credit guarantee and market-based private finance system for SMEs. First, CGS, as a counter-cyclical function, must coexist with the private financial system by compensating the market failure caused by pro-cyclical behavior of the private financial market. Second, CGS has the comparative advantages, compared to both the interest rate policy of the central bank and fiscal policy of the government. The credit guarantee is the symptomatic treatment that could revitalize the economy shortly by providing liquidity. Also, knowing that CGS is provided based on the leverage ratio defined by outstanding guarantee divided by capital fund, public 'credit guarantee' (CG) has an advantage that is free from the risk of government deficit. Third, the reason for existence of the CGS should be founded in supporting services for SMEs, available only in a public sector that is difficult to expect from private banks. In this regard, it is desirable to strengthen the publicness of credit guarantee over the support for start-ups, growing companies, the improvement of productivity, increase of exports, a long-term investment in facilities, the employment-creating businesses, and innovative enterprises.

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Investigation on Enhancing Efficiency in International Cooperation for Climate Change Adaptation of Republic of Korea (우리나라의 기후변화적응 국제협력에 대한 고찰)

  • Park, Yong-Ha;Chung, Suh-Yong;Son, Yowhan;Lee, Woo-Kyun
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.179-188
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    • 2010
  • To cope with various issues in the aspect of climate change adaptation of UNFCCC, Korea began preparing a Five-year National Climate Change Adaptation Plan in 2010 to be implemented from 2011~2015, for the purposes of securing a concrete system to adapt to climate change. Compared with the policies and measurement tools of developed countries, Korea's climate change adaptation capabilities suffers from a number of limitations including insufficiencies of basic information, human resources for research on climate change, and technology in risk and vulnerability assessment. At the same time, Korea maintains superior information technology systems, and comparatively strong climate change adaptation technologies. Recently, with the establishment of the Korea Adaptation Center for Climate Change as a specialized research organization in climate change adaptation, Korea has upgraded its ability to adapt to climate change and to provide support to other Asian countries which are vulnerable to climate change. In consideration of the close relation between climate change adaptation policy and technology development with the environmental industry, Korea's pursuit of cooperation and technical support for developing countries in the Asia region can be seen as the commencement of a long term investment for the nation's future. International cooperation on climate change adaptation between countries in the region can build a mutually complementary and integrated partnership in business, research, education, and other areas. Furthermore, Korea can also participate in the exploration of common issues as landmark projects that can attract global interest with developing countries.

A Study on Utilization of Fonts for Headline of Newspaper Advertising (신문광고 헤드라인 서체 활용사례 연구)

  • Kim, Young-Kook;Won, Jong-Youn
    • Archives of design research
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    • v.19 no.5 s.67
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    • pp.95-104
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    • 2006
  • The advertisement is an informative product in which a company or an organization has made a substantial capital investment in order to achieve their goals based on their carefully thought-out plans. David Ogilvy maintaned that making a headline of an advertisement is worth 80 percent completion of the advertisement. As he insisted, a headline is also the most important element in the printing advertisement. Therefore, the importance of selecting headline's font style is increased because, while creating a headline, it is necessary to consider the emotional aspects of the advertising object that attract the attention of people. Many researchers call 'typography' as 'frozen sound' or 'written sound' because typography not only works as a letter but also provide people with an emotional pleasure. An appropriate selection of headline's font style in the advertisement production makes both the client and the audience for the advertisement satisfied because it reduces the communication risk and makes design results more reasonable. It is difficult to find many decision-making methods for selecting headline's font style. Therefore, the author of this paper investigated the trend of the use of headline's font style in order to help the designer understand headline's font style as one of design factors. As a result of the research, it is possible to conclude that, while selecting the headline's font style, the attributes of a font consist of limited style, and more objective and systematic font selection methods are necessary.

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Development of the Process Mapping for the Radiation Safety Management (방사선안전관리를 위한 Process Mapping 개발)

  • Lee, Yong Sik;Lee, Jin Woo;Lee, Yun Jong
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.149-156
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    • 2013
  • Recent domestic use of radiations has increased in the number of institutions and companies as well as operating as an investment, a variety of facilities and safety management are becoming increasingly complex. Despite the increase of radiation workers and facilities, the number of RSOs (Radiation Safety Officers) has not increased with a growing domestic radiation industry. The radiation safety management work (radiation workers management, radiation sources management, facilities management etc.) has been managed by insufficient number of the RSOs. These problems could be directly or indirectly related to causes of the radiation accidents. In this paper, we designed the Process Mapping of radiation safety management work for an efficient safety management of the radiation facilities and protection of radiation accidents. To develop the Process Mapping, we analyzed the radiation safety requirements of management issues and the individual procedures. Based on the Process Mapping, the work procedures for an appropriate radiation safety management of each institution can be configured clearly. Through this procedures, the safety risk factors in radiation facilities can be reduced, and the radiation safety management system will be improved. Depending on your needs, the Process Mapping could be modified and could be used for an efficient radiation safety management.

Problem Analysis and Improvements Plans for PF ABCP of Apartment Housing Development Projects (공동주택 PF ABCP의 문제점 분석 및 개선방안에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Soo-Yeol;Hwang, Uk-Sun;Kim, Yong-Su
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.133-142
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the problems of the parties involved in the issuance of apartment housing development projects. The adapted research method selected four apartment housing development as PF ABCP projects. This study carried out the case about participant institution of PF ABCP funding project including developer, constructor, financial institution so as to draw problems by participant institution. On the basis of the selected case, this thesis proposes methods for involved parties to negotiate and work out problems of the PF ABCP. The results of this study are as follows 1) Launching long-term project financing should be developed, including operating funds and strengthen the ABS and ABCP issuance of credit assessment procedures, combined with the simplicity of the instruments. 2) The Low-risk contract for the construction of simple managerial focus should be the construction, financial institutions essentially dependent on project financing feasibility verification purpose loans to prevent the division a true story, the development should be of interest to be preserved. The proposed included, among other, partial guarantee based on the construction plan financial institutions' share-based investment, and the supplement of legal issues.

An Improvement Method through Build-Transfer-Lease (BTL) Problem Analysis from the Special Purpose Company (SPC) Perspective (SPC 관점에서의 BTL사업 문제점 분석을 통한 개선방법)

  • Kim, Soo-Yong;Son, Myung-Chan;Yang, Jin-Kook
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.167-175
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    • 2013
  • In 2005, the government introduced BTL(Build-Transfer-Lease) projects as one of the methods of private investment in infrastructure. In a BTL project, a private company builds a public facility and leases it to the government to withdraw its invested capital. But there appear several problems with it due to a short period of preparation and lack of experiences. Specifically, private companies that plan to participate in this project have to take a risk since serious problems are likely to take place because of unrealistic estimation of construction costs, etc., and they finally avoid participating in this project. A case study was made over advanced countries, Japan and the United Kingdom, to find out how to resolve the problems, and rational 7 improvement method were presented from a perspective of Special Purpose Company (SPC), which could be accepted by both of SPC and government agencies. The findings of the study are expected to provide workable solutions to BTL projects from a standpoint of private companies to facilitate the rational improvement of BTL projects, and this study is ultimately expected to stimulate the active participation of SPC to make a contribution to the vitalization of domestic BTL projects.

Estimation Model for Freight of Container Ships using Deep Learning Method (딥러닝 기법을 활용한 컨테이너선 운임 예측 모델)

  • Kim, Donggyun;Choi, Jung-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.574-583
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    • 2021
  • Predicting shipping markets is an important issue. Such predictions form the basis for decisions on investment methods, fleet formation methods, freight rates, etc., which greatly affect the profits and survival of a company. To this end, in this study, we propose a shipping freight rate prediction model for container ships using gated recurrent units (GRUs) and long short-term memory structure. The target of our freight rate prediction is the China Container Freight Index (CCFI), and CCFI data from March 2003 to May 2020 were used for training. The CCFI after June 2020 was first predicted according to each model and then compared and analyzed with the actual CCFI. For the experimental model, a total of six models were designed according to the hyperparameter settings. Additionally, the ARIMA model was included in the experiment for performance comparison with the traditional analysis method. The optimal model was selected based on two evaluation methods. The first evaluation method selects the model with the smallest average value of the root mean square error (RMSE) obtained by repeating each model 10 times. The second method selects the model with the lowest RMSE in all experiments. The experimental results revealed not only the improved accuracy of the deep learning model compared to the traditional time series prediction model, ARIMA, but also the contribution in enhancing the risk management ability of freight fluctuations through deep learning models. On the contrary, in the event of sudden changes in freight owing to the effects of external factors such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the accuracy of the forecasting model reduced. The GRU1 model recorded the lowest RMSE (69.55, 49.35) in both evaluation methods, and it was selected as the optimal model.

Study on Economic and Financial Education for the North Koreans after Unification: from the Perspective of Behavioral Economics (통일 후 북한 주민 대상 경제금융 교육에 관한 연구: 행태경제학 관점을 중심으로)

  • Son, Jeong-Kook;Kim, Young-Min
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.239-246
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    • 2021
  • Unification means the change of the economic system from 'Planned Economy' of the North Korea to 'Market Economy' of the South Korea. Therefore, it may cause confusions and difficulties for North Koreans who have been under planned economy for ages. So, we need to take the perspective of behavioral economics for the effective education. First of all, it is about overall finance, which contains the record of financial transactions, effect of inflation, investors' bounded rationality, and choice difficulty of financial products. Second, it is about borrowings, which includes the credit management, interest rate of difference among financial institutions. Third, it is about investment on financial products, which includes the effect of cost on returns, difference between compound interest and simple interest, trade-off between expected return and risk, market and non-market risks, the importance of diversification, and passive & aggressive investments.