• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk function

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Selection of Optimal Values in Spatial Estimation of Environmental Variables using Geostatistical Simulation and Loss Functions

  • Park, No-Wook
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.437-447
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    • 2010
  • Spatial estimation of environmental variables has been regarded as an important preliminary procedure for decision-making. A minimum variance criterion, which has often been adopted in traditional kriging algorithms, does not always guarantee the optimal estimates for subsequent decision-making processes. In this paper, a geostatistical framework is illustrated that consists of uncertainty modeling via stochastic simulation and risk modeling based on loss functions for the selection of optimal estimates. Loss functions that quantify the impact of choosing any estimate different from the unknown true value are linked to geostatistical simulation. A hybrid loss function is especially presented to account for the different impact of over- and underestimation of different land-use types. The loss function-specific estimates that minimize the expected loss are chosen as optimal estimates. The applicability of the geostatistical framework is demonstrated and discussed through a case study of copper mapping.

Stationary analysis of the surplus process in a risk model with investments

  • Lee, Eui Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.915-920
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    • 2014
  • We consider a continuous time surplus process with investments the sizes of which are independent and identically distributed. It is assumed that an investment of the surplus to other business is made, if and only if the surplus reaches a given sufficient level. We establish an integro-differential equation for the distribution function of the surplus and solve the equation to obtain the moment generating function for the stationary distribution of the surplus. As a consequence, we obtain the first and second moments of the level of the surplus in an infinite horizon.

Effects on Aesthetic Response of Typicality According to Product Orientation and Price Levels (제품별 지향성과 가격수준에 따른 전형성이 심미적 반응에 미치는 효과에 관한 연구)

  • 이진렬;김진아;홍정표
    • Archives of design research
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.103-110
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    • 2001
  • The purpose of this study is to test the typicality effects to aesthetic response according to product orientation (design-oriented vs function- oriented) and perceived purchase risk. This study overcame the limitations of existing researches which haven't had the consensus about the relationship between typicality and preference and consequently suggested the typicality effect to aesthetic response by analyzing this relationship with product orientation and perceived purchase risk. The results of this study showed the inverted U-shaped relationship in design-oriented products and no relationship in function-oriented products between typicality and preference.

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AN OVERVIEW OF RISK QUANTIFICATION ISSUES FOR DIGITALIZED NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS USING A STATIC FAULT TREE

  • Kang, Hyun-Gook;Kim, Man-Cheol;Lee, Seung-Jun;Lee, Ho-Jung;Eom, Heung-Seop;Choi, Jong-Gyun;Jang, Seung-Cheol
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.41 no.6
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    • pp.849-858
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    • 2009
  • Risk caused by safety-critical instrumentation and control (I&C) systems considerably affects overall plant risk. As digitalization of safety-critical systems in nuclear power plants progresses, a risk model of a digitalized safety system is required and must be included in a plant safety model in order to assess this risk effect on the plant. Unique features of a digital system cause some challenges in risk modeling. This article aims at providing an overview of the issues related to the development of a static fault-tree-based risk model. We categorize the complicated issues of digital system probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) into four groups based on their characteristics: hardware module issues, software issues, system issues, and safety function issues. Quantification of the effect of these issues dominates the quality of a developed risk model. Recent research activities for addressing various issues, such as the modeling framework of a software-based system, the software failure probability and the fault coverage of a self monitoring mechanism, are discussed. Although these issues are interrelated and affect each other, the categorized and systematic approach suggested here will provide a proper insight for analyzing risk from a digital system.

Implementation of Multi-function Sensor Module for Vessel Safety Monitoring (어선안전 모니터링 다기능 센서 모듈의 구현)

  • Choi, Jo-Cheon;Cho, Seung-Il;Kim, Seong-Kweon;Kim, Jai-Hyun;Choi, Gyoo-Seok;Cha, Jea-Sang
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.135-139
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    • 2009
  • In order to cope with safety issues regarding fisher vessels, a device is required with the real-time monitoring for the safety and risk factors for a capability of informing and alerting function. In embedded modules, there is a trouble that we should design device drivers and application programs for usage of the multi-function sensors in order to detect risk factors. In this paper, we designed hardware circuit and implemented control program of the sensor part using PIC18F, in order to control and process the input and output data of multi-function sensors without device drivers and application programs. We confirmed the operation of multi-function sensor module to generate output data according to sensor operation.

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불확실성 하에서의 신시장 개척을 위한 최적 마케팅 자원 배분

  • 이동주;안재현
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2001.10a
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    • pp.157-160
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    • 2001
  • Firms pursue new business opportunities for growth. Market development strategy is one of the growth strategies, which develops new market segments with current products. However, new market generally has high uncertainty, or high risk. Firms should consider the risk in making and implementing the market development strategy. In this paper, an optimal marketing resource allocation model is developed, taking into account the risk attitude of a firm in market development. Under the assumption of exponential utility function, the global optimal solution is derived, and the implications are provided.

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SIMPLIFIED APPROACH TO VALUATION OF VULNERABLE EXCHANGE OPTION UNDER A REDUCED-FORM MODEL

  • Huh, Jeonggyu;Jeon, Jaegi;Kim, Geonwoo
    • East Asian mathematical journal
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.79-85
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    • 2021
  • In this paper, we investigate the valuation of vulnerable exchange option that has credit risk of option issuer. The reduced-form model is used to model credit risk. We assume that credit event is determined by the jump of the counting process with stochastic intensity, which follows the mean reverting process. We propose a simple approach to derive the closed-form pricing formula of vulnerable exchange option under the reduced-form model and provide the pricing formula as the standard normal cumulative function.

A Study on the Capital Budgeting under Risk and Uncertainty (위험하(危險下)의 투자결정(投資決定)에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Lee, Tae-Joo
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.21-34
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    • 1986
  • The purpose of this study is to analyse the risk and uncertainty involved in the capital budgeting which is executed in long periods and requires massive capital expenditure. Under risk and uncertainty conditions, the estimates in the capital budgeting are random variables rather than known constants. Two approaches have emerged in performing economic analysis that explicitly incorporate risk and uncertainty conditions in the analysis. One approach is to develop a descriptive model which describes the economic performance of an individual investment alternative. But no recomendation would be forthcoming from the model. Rather, the decision-maker would be furnished descriptive information concerning each alternative; the final choice among the alternatives would required a separate action. The second approach is to develop a normative model which includes an objective function to be maximized or minimized. The output from the model prescribes the course of action to be taken. Owing to the fact that the normative approach considers the fitness of criteria for decision-making its reasonableness looks better. But it is almost imposible that we correctly and easily derive the individuals' utility function. So within we recognize the limits of the descriptive methods, it is more practicle to analyse the investment alternatives by sensitivity analysis.

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Risk Factors of Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting According to Ventricular Function (좌심실기능에 따른 관상동맥우회술의 위험인자)

  • 이헌재;현성렬
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.30 no.9
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    • pp.885-890
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    • 1997
  • Patients with coronary artery disease and depressed ventricular function have better longterm benefits after coronary artery bypass grafting compared with medical therapy. But operative mortality remains high. This study was designed to identify the risk factors for coronary artery bypass grafting according to ventricular function. The records of 103 patients who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting from truly 1994 to June 1996 were analysed. The patients were divided into two groups based on preoperative ejection fraction: Low EF group(Ejection fraction < 40%, n=24) and Normal EF group(Ejection fraction $\geq$ 40%, n=79). The indication of operation was significantly different between the two groups (p=0.00003). Postinfarction angina was frequent in Low EF group but unstable angina was frequent in Normal EF group. The frequency of cardiomegaly(p=0.0012), serum creatinine abnormality(p=0.0473) and preoperative use of IABP(Intra Aortic Balloon Pump, p=0.0095) were higher in Low EP group. The left internal thoracic artery was used less frequently in Low EP group(p=0.00416). The operative mortality was 8.3% in Low EF group and 5.1% in Normal EF group, but without statistical difference(p=0.5492). In Normal EF group, age (p=0.041) was identified as a significant risk factor for operative mortality. In Low EF group, age(p=0.018), preopertive use of IABP(p=0.0036), hypercholesterolemia(p=0.0007), and emergency of operation(p=0.0037) were identified as significant risk factors. Postoperative morbidity was 50% in Low EF group and 33olo in Normal EP group, but without s atistical significance(p=0.1007). These results suggest that in patients with coronary artery disease and depressed ventricular function, more aggresive coronary artery bypass grafting is needed to improve the symptom and long-term benefit.

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The Relationship among Family functioning, Intimacy Risk with the Opposite Sex and Campus Life Satisfaction of College Students (대학생의 가족기능, 이성과의 친밀감 위험, 대학생활만족에 관한 연구)

  • Ahan, Seong-Aha;Oh, Su-Mi;Kong, Jeong-Hyeon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.10
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    • pp.432-441
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    • 2017
  • The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship among family function, intimacy risk with the opposite sex, and campus life satisfaction among college students. A descriptive study was conducted. Data were collected from May 11, 2017 to May 20, 2017 by using a structured questionnaire. The participants were 180 college students at two colleges in J-city. Data were analyzed using t-test, one way ANOVA, Scheffe test, pearson correlation coefficient, and multiple regression analysis with SPSS 20.0. The mean scores were as follows: family function $3.07{\pm}0.44$(5 points), intimacy risk with the opposite sex $2.03{\pm}0.59$(4 points), and campus life satisfaction $3.20{\pm}0.50$(5 points). There was a significant correlation between the family function, intimacy risk with the opposite sex, and campus life satisfaction variables. Multiple regression analysis showed that factors influencing campus life satisfaction were family communication(${\beta}=0.341$, p=.001) and parental economic activity type(${\beta}=0.161$, p=.007). The explanation power of this regression model was 13.1%. These results of this study indicate that effective campus life satisfaction should be developed by including improvement of family community of family function.