• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk function

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A Study on Factors Affecting Youth Employee's Labor Mobility and Employment Status Transition (청년취업자의 노동이동 및 고용형태 전환에 영향을 미치는 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Ban, Jung-Ho;Kim, Kyung-Hee;Kim, Kyung-Huy
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.57 no.3
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    • pp.73-103
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    • 2005
  • This study takes of youth panel data(2002-2003), there is the purpose to know to youth employed's labor mobility conditions of employment status conversion and examine on factors affecting conversion of employment status. Main analysis result and policy imply, is as following. First, although youth employed's non-standard employment shows some decrease, employment youth hierarchy was construed that youth of our country is consisting very changefully because appear great turnover that is converted by unemployment or Not economically activity population same period. Specially, non-standard employment phenomenon of woman or low in scholarship person appeared notedly, and because phenomenon that is converted by unemployment or Not economically activity population is expose that is deepened, discriminating policy of government dimension is required for employment stabilization of these class. Second, show result that danger to escape to non-standard job risk trap which seeking employment activity of youth class is arranged case or company which is formed by official path is suitable becomes low, must formulate path of employment about youth class and improve qualitative level of employment through suitable job placement education of youth class or function (technology) level. Third, when was construed, but take into account that the although large enterprise have low risk in non-standard job, recently employment of youth class consists very limited, rather small scale business or smaller enterprise's competitive power preferably need to be plan. Finally, danger to non-standard job youth employed's company form is government connection wonder was expose that high, Such result can do that it is difficult by limited research period, but reflect actuality that youth unemployment policy of our country is enforced laying stress on public labor or unregular job employment such as internship system. Therefore, current youth unemployment policy may have to change by employment policy that can secure stable work record by youth class or act as bridge-building that promote conversion by full-time job.

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Study on the State Leadership's Safety Measures Regarding the North Korean Threat of Weapons of Mass Destruction - Focuses on the Threat of North Korean Nuclear Weapons (북한 대량살상무기 위협에 대한 국가지도부 안전대책에 관한 연구 - 북한 핵무기 위협을 중심으로)

  • Choi, Kee-Nam
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.37
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    • pp.325-354
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    • 2013
  • The concept of national security and the fundamental system for crisis management have departed from traditional methods and the importance of a national critical infrastructure crisis management has been emphasized. A national critical infrastructure crisis means a situation where human resource, material and functional system that may have a material effect on the critical functions of the government, the vitality and integrity of society, national economy and the safety of the public becomes disabled due to causes such as terrorism or major disasters. Although North Korea had been subject to numerous rounds of negotiations and sanctions as it continually developed nuclear weapons since the 1960s, it has also showed off its nuclear armaments through successful nuclear testings and missile launches. As the development and threat of North Korea's weapons of mass destruction becomes more noticeable and the range of its risk expands, this study focuses on the potential for an absence of leadership for national crisis management where the country's leadership, which should serve the critical role and function of handling national crises, becomes completely destroyed by the unexpected initial attacks by North Korea. As a result, the purpose of this study is to propose safety measures for the country's leadership in preparation for North Korea's threat of nuclear weapons by examining the concept and degree of risk of weapons of mass destruction with a focus on nuclear weapons, analyzing the substance of the threat of North Korean nuclear weapons and evaluating such threat. In conclusion, first, to ensure the normal functioning of a national crisis management system in the event of a national crisis, we must seek safety measures that conform to the scope and succession order of the leadership of the national crisis management for an Enduring Constitutional Government (ECG) and the Continuity Of Operations (COOP). Second, in the event of a national ceremony, the gathering of the country's leadership all together in an open place should be avoided. In unavoidable circumstances, the next in rank that will act on behalf of the current leader should be designated and relevant safety measures should be taken. Third, during time of peace, in preparation for national crises, the scope of protection for the country's leadership should be prescribed and specific security and safety measures should be implemented. Fourth, the succession order for acting president in the case of the death of the president pursuant to Articles 71 and 26(1) of the National Government Organization Act should reconsidered to see whether it is a reasonable provision that takes into consideration a national crisis management that corresponds to the threat of North Korean nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction. Pursuant to the Basic Guidelines for National Crisis Management set out under Presidential Directive No. 229, the Korean government is currently operating a case-by-case "crisis management standard manual" and its sub-manuals and has also prepared the Presidential Security Service's security and safety measure regulations regarding the acting president. Therefore, the Korean government should actualize the above points in the case-by-case crisis management standard manual and security and safety measure regulations regarding the acting president to implement and legislate them.

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Establishment of Valve Replacement Registry and Risk Factor Analysis Based on Database Application Program (데이터베이스 프로그램에 기반한 심장판막 치환수술 환자의 레지스트리 확립 및 위험인자 분석)

  • Kim, Kyung-Hwan;Lee, Jae-Ik;Lim, Cheong;Ahn, Hyuk
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.209-216
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    • 2002
  • Background: Valvular heart disease is still the most common health problem in Korea. By the end of the year 1999, there has been 94,586 cases of open heart surgery since the first case in 1958. Among them, 36,247 cases were acquired heart diseases and 20,704 of those had valvular heart disease. But there was no database system and every surgeon and physician had great difficulties in analysing and utilizing those tremendous medical resources. Therefore, we developed a valve registry database program and utilize it for risk factor analysis and so on. Material and Method: Personal computer-based multiuser database program was created using Microsoft AccessTM. That consisted of relational database structure with fine-tuned compact field variables and server-client architecture. Simple graphic user interface showed easy-to-use accessability and comprehensibility. User-oriented modular structure enabled easier modification through native AccessTM functions. Infinite application of query function aided users to extract, summarize, analyse and report the study result promptly. Result: About three-thousand cases of valve replacement procedure were performed in our hospital from 1968 to 1999. Total number of prosthesis replaced was 3,700. The numbers of cases for mitral, aortic and tricuspid valve replacement were 1600, 584, 76, respectively. Among them, 700 patients received prosthesis in more than two positions. Bioprosthesis or mechanical prosthesis were used in 1,280 and 1,500 patients respectively Redo valve replacements were performed in 460 patients totally and 40 patients annually Conclusion: Database program for registry of valvular heart disease was successfully developed and used in personal computer-based multiuser environment. This revealed promising results and perspectives in database management and utilization system.

Incidence of Osteoporosis in Patients with COPD According to Different Methods of Glucocorticoid Administration (만성페쇄성폐질환 환자에서 스테로이드 투여 방법에 따른 골다공증의 발생빈도)

  • Lee, Yang Deok;Lee, Kang Hyu;Lee, Heung Bum;Lee, Yong Chul;Rhee, Yang Keun
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.15-21
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    • 2003
  • Background : There are many risk factors for osteoporosis in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD). These include smoking, a low body mass index, insufficient exercise, and the use of glucocortcoids. However, there is lack of data on the incidence of osteoporosis according to the different glucocorticoid administration methods in patients with COPD. This study compared the incidence of osteoporosis according to the different administration methods of glucocorticoid. Methods : A matched case-controlled study (gender, age, cumulative steroid dose and pack-years of smoking) was conducted. Forty-five patients with documented COPD for at least a 3 year duration and a cumulative glucocorticoid dose above 1,000 mg were enrolled in study. The patients were classified into the following three groups. First, fifteen patients received continuous inhaled glucocorticoid with intermittent oral steroids but had no admission history due to an acute exacerbation(Group I). Secondly, fifteen patients received a multiple course of oral steroids with additional inhaled glucocorticoid but had no admission history due to their acute exacerbation(Group II). Lastly, fifteen patients received intermittent oral or inhaled glucocorticoids and had an admission history due to the acute exacerbation with intravenous steroid treatment for at least 2 weeks per year(Group III). The enrolled patients had apulmonary function test and bone densitometry performed at the lumbar spine and femoral neck. Results : The patients from Group III had significantly high incidence of osteoporosis in the lumbar and femoral neck compared to Group I and Group II (p<0.01). Conclusion : The incidence of osteoporosis in patients with COPD appears to be strongly affected by the method of steroid administration. This result suggests that intravenous steroid administration is strongly associated with the risk of osteoporosis.

The Use of Normal Tissue Complication Probability to Predict Radiation Hepatitis (간암의 정상조직손상확률을 이용한 방사선간염의 발생여부 예측가능성에 관한 연구)

  • Keum Ki Chang;Seong Jinsil;Suh Chang Ok;Lee Sang-wook;Chung Eun Ji;Shin Hyun Soo;Kim Gwi Eon
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.277-282
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    • 2000
  • Purpose : Though It has been known that the to tolerance of the liver to external beam irradiation depends on the irradiated volume and dose, few data exist which Quantify this dependence. However, recently, with the development of three dimensional (3-D) treatment planning, have the tools to Quantify the relationships between dose, volume, and normal tissue complications become available. The objective of this study is to investigate the relationships between normal tissue complication probabili쇼 (WCP) and the risk of radiation hepatitis for patients who received variant dose partial liver irradiation. Materials and Methods : From March 1992 to December 1994, 10 patients with hepatoma and 10 patients with bile duct cancer were included in this study. Eighteen patients had normal hepatic function, but 2 patients (prothrombin time 73$\%$, 68$\%$) had mild liver cirrhosis before irradiation. Radiation therapy was delivered with 10MV linear accelerator, 180$\~$200 cGy fraction per day. The total dose ranged from 3,960 cGy to 6,000 cGy (median dose 5,040 cGy). The normal tissue complication probability was calculated by using Lyman's model. Radiation hepatitis was defined as the development of anicteric elevation of alkaline phosphatase of at least two fold and non-malignant ascites in the absence of documented progressive. Results: The calculated NTCP ranged from 0.001 to 0.840 (median 0.05). Three of the 20 patients developed radiation hepatitis. The NTCP of the patients with radiation hepatitis were 0.390, 0.528, 0.844(median : 0.58$\pm$0.23), but that of the patients without radiation hepatitis ranged fro 0.001 to 0.308 (median .0.09$\pm$0.09). When the NTCP was calculated by using the volume factor of 0.32, a radiation hepatitis was observed only in patients with the NTCP value more than 0.39. By contrast, clinical results of evolving radiation hepatitis were not well correlated with NTCP value calculated when the volume factor of 0.69 was applied. On the basis of these observations, the volume factor of 0.32 was more correlated to predict a radiation hepatitis. Conclusion : The risk of radiation hepatitis was increased above the cut-off value. Therefore the NTCP seems to be used for predicting the radiation hepatitis.

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Clinical Characteristics of Aspergilloma (국균종의 임상적 고찰)

  • Kim, Ki-Up;Gil, Hyo-Wook;Lee, Suk-Ho;Kim, Do-Jin;Na, Moon-Jun;Uh, Soo-Taek;Kim, Yong-Hoon;Park, Choon-Sik
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.46-53
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    • 2002
  • Background: Pulmonary aspergilloma is relatively common in korea. It arises from the colonization and proliferation of Aspergillus in preexisting lung parenchymal cavities, in particular tuberculosis. The most common symptom in this disorder is hemoptysis, which mayor may not be massive and life threatening. A routine chest radiography and computed tomography (CT) are the most important diagnostic procedures. A surgical resection of the aspergilloma has recently been recommended, because of the relatively low incidence of postoperative complications than in the past. A more concentrated sample of patients with aspergilloma, who either underwent a thoracotomy or tested positive for aspergillus antibodies, were reviewed. Method : The medical records of twenty-two patients with aspergilloma, who had a proven thoracotomy (9 cases), or who tested positive for the diagnostic procedure and/or aspergillus antibodies (13 cases) from January 1995 to December 2000, were reviewed retrospectively. Results : The most common underlying lung disease was a current or old healed tuberculosis, and 3 patients had cultures of mycobacterium other than tuberculosis (MOTT). The mean time until the aspergilloma was detected 5.91 years in the healed tuberculosis cases. The others cases involved a lung abscess, bronchiectasis and without lung disease. The extrapulmonary disease was alcoholism and diabetes. Hemoptysis was most common in 72.7%. A computed tomography (CT) is useful for diagnosis. The right upper lobe, especially the posterior segment, is the most common location. Bronchial artery embolization is ineffective for a long term follow-up. A lobectomy is most common in a thoracotomy, and intra-operative and post-operative complications are rare. During follow-up, the mortality rate, not from the aspergilloma but from respiratory failure, was 13.6%. Conclusion : Aspergilloma is a common cavitary lung disease, It mainly arises from tuberculosis, either current or healed, but extra-pulmonary disease including alcoholism or diabetes are other possible risk factors. Their most common problem in aspergilloma is hemoptysis. Surgery has a low risk of post-operative complications and is recommended in relatively preserved lung function or healthy patients. Medical maneuvers including embolization, and the local insertion of certain materials needs to be studied more closely.

Factors Predicting the Development of Radiation Pneumonitis in the Patients Receiving Radiation Therapy for Lung Cancer (방사선 치료를 시행 받은 폐암 환자에서 방사선 폐렴의 발생에 관한 예측 인자)

  • An, Jin Yong;Lee, Yun Sun;Kwon, Sun Jung;Park, Hee Sun;Jung, Sung Soo;Kim, Jin whan;Kim, Ju Ock;Jo, Moon Jun;Kim, Sun Young
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.56 no.1
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    • pp.40-50
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    • 2004
  • Background : Radiation pneumonitis(RP) is the major serious complication of thoracic irradiation treatment. In this study, we attempted to retrospectively evaluate the long-term prognosis of patients who experienced acute RP and to identify factor that might allow prediction of RP. Methods : Of the 114 lung cancer patients who underwent thoracic radiotherapy between December 2000 and December 2002, We performed analysis using a database of 90 patients who were capable of being evaluated. Results : Of the 44 patients(48.9%) who experienced clinical RP in this study, the RP was mild in 33(36.6%) and severe in 11(12.3%). All of severe RP were treated with corticosteroids. The median starting corticosteroids dose was 34 mg(30~40) and median treatment duration was 68 days(8~97). The median survival time of the 11 patients who experienced severe RP was significantly poorer than the mild RP group. (p=0.046) The higher total radiation dose(${\geq}60Gy$) was significantly associated with developing in RP.(p=0.001) The incidence of RP did not correlate with any of the ECOG performance, pulmonary function test, age, cell type, history of smoking, radiotherapy combined with chemotherapy, once-daily radiotherapy dose fraction. Also, serum albumin level, uric acid level at onset of RP did not influence the risk of severe RP in our study. Conclusion : Only the higher total radiation dose(${\geq}60Gy$) was a significant risk factor predictive of RP. Also severe RP was an adverse prognostic factor.

The Price-discovery of Korean Bond Markets by US Treasury Bond Markets by US Treasury Bond Markets - The Start-up of Korean Bond Valuation System - (한국 채권현물시장에 대한 미국 채권현물시장의 가격발견기능 연구 - 채권시가평가제도 도입 전후를 중심으로 -)

  • Hong, Chung-Hyo;Moon, Gyu-Hyun
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.125-151
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    • 2004
  • This study tests the price discovery from US Treasury bond markets to Korean bond markets using the daily returns of Korean bond data (CD, 3-year T-note, 5-year T-note, 5-year corporate note) and US treasury bond markets (3-month T-bill, 5-year T-note 10-year T-bond) from July 1, 1998 to December 31, 2003. For further research, we divide full data into two sub-samples on the basis of the start-up of bond valuation system in Korean bond market July 1, 2000, employing uni-variate AR(1)-GARCH(1,1)-M model. The main results are as follows. First the volatility spillover effects from US Treasury bond markets (3-month T-bill, 5-year T-note, 10-year T-bond) to Korean Treasury and Corporate bond markets (CD, 3-year T-note, 5-year T-note, 5-year corporate note) are significantly found at 1% confidence level. Second, the price discovery function from US bond markets to Korean bond markets in the sub-data of the pre-bond valuation system exists much stronger and more persistent than those of the post-bond valuation system. In particular, the role of 10-year T-bond compared with 3-month T-bill and 5-year T-note is outstanding. We imply these findings result from the international capital market integration which is accelerated by the broad opening of Korean capital market after 1997 Korean currency crisis and the development of telecommunication skill. In addition, these results are meaningful for bond investors who are in charge of capital asset pricing valuation, risk management, and international portfolio management.

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Financial Fraud Detection using Text Mining Analysis against Municipal Cybercriminality (지자체 사이버 공간 안전을 위한 금융사기 탐지 텍스트 마이닝 방법)

  • Choi, Sukjae;Lee, Jungwon;Kwon, Ohbyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.119-138
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    • 2017
  • Recently, SNS has become an important channel for marketing as well as personal communication. However, cybercrime has also evolved with the development of information and communication technology, and illegal advertising is distributed to SNS in large quantity. As a result, personal information is lost and even monetary damages occur more frequently. In this study, we propose a method to analyze which sentences and documents, which have been sent to the SNS, are related to financial fraud. First of all, as a conceptual framework, we developed a matrix of conceptual characteristics of cybercriminality on SNS and emergency management. We also suggested emergency management process which consists of Pre-Cybercriminality (e.g. risk identification) and Post-Cybercriminality steps. Among those we focused on risk identification in this paper. The main process consists of data collection, preprocessing and analysis. First, we selected two words 'daechul(loan)' and 'sachae(private loan)' as seed words and collected data with this word from SNS such as twitter. The collected data are given to the two researchers to decide whether they are related to the cybercriminality, particularly financial fraud, or not. Then we selected some of them as keywords if the vocabularies are related to the nominals and symbols. With the selected keywords, we searched and collected data from web materials such as twitter, news, blog, and more than 820,000 articles collected. The collected articles were refined through preprocessing and made into learning data. The preprocessing process is divided into performing morphological analysis step, removing stop words step, and selecting valid part-of-speech step. In the morphological analysis step, a complex sentence is transformed into some morpheme units to enable mechanical analysis. In the removing stop words step, non-lexical elements such as numbers, punctuation marks, and double spaces are removed from the text. In the step of selecting valid part-of-speech, only two kinds of nouns and symbols are considered. Since nouns could refer to things, the intent of message is expressed better than the other part-of-speech. Moreover, the more illegal the text is, the more frequently symbols are used. The selected data is given 'legal' or 'illegal'. To make the selected data as learning data through the preprocessing process, it is necessary to classify whether each data is legitimate or not. The processed data is then converted into Corpus type and Document-Term Matrix. Finally, the two types of 'legal' and 'illegal' files were mixed and randomly divided into learning data set and test data set. In this study, we set the learning data as 70% and the test data as 30%. SVM was used as the discrimination algorithm. Since SVM requires gamma and cost values as the main parameters, we set gamma as 0.5 and cost as 10, based on the optimal value function. The cost is set higher than general cases. To show the feasibility of the idea proposed in this paper, we compared the proposed method with MLE (Maximum Likelihood Estimation), Term Frequency, and Collective Intelligence method. Overall accuracy and was used as the metric. As a result, the overall accuracy of the proposed method was 92.41% of illegal loan advertisement and 77.75% of illegal visit sales, which is apparently superior to that of the Term Frequency, MLE, etc. Hence, the result suggests that the proposed method is valid and usable practically. In this paper, we propose a framework for crisis management caused by abnormalities of unstructured data sources such as SNS. We hope this study will contribute to the academia by identifying what to consider when applying the SVM-like discrimination algorithm to text analysis. Moreover, the study will also contribute to the practitioners in the field of brand management and opinion mining.

Coronary Artery Bypass Graft in Patient with Advanced Left Ventricular Dysfunction (중등도 이상의 좌심실 기능 부전 환자에서의 관상동 우회술의 임상 분석)

  • 정종필;김승우;신제균
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.34 no.12
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    • pp.901-908
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    • 2001
  • Background : Coronary artery bypass graft(CABG) in patients with advanced left ventricular dysfunction has often been regarded as having high mortality rate, despite the great improvement in operative result of CABG. With recent advances in surgical technique and myocardial protection, surgical revascularization improved the symptom and long-term survival of these high risk patients more than the medical conservative treatment. Material and Methold : Clinical data of 31(4.1%) patients with preoperative ejection fraction less than 30% among 864 CABGs performed between January 1995 and March 1999 were retrospectively analyzed and pre- and postoperative changes of the ejection fraction on echocardiography were analyzed. There were 26 men and 5 women. The mean age was 60.7 years(range 41 to 72 years). History of myocardial infarction(30 cases, 98%) was the most common preoperative risk factor. There were seven irreversible myocardial infarction on thallium scan. Most patients had triple vessel diseases(26 cases, 84%) and first degree of Rentrop classification(16 cases, 52%) on coronary angiography. The mean number of distal anastomosis during CABG was per patient was 4.9${\pm}$0.8 sites in each patient. In addition to long saphenous veins, the internal mammary artery was used in 20 patients. Total bypass time was 244.7${\pm}$3.7 minutes(range, 117 to 567 minutes), and mean aortic cross-clamp time was 77.9 ${\pm}$ 1.6 minutes(range, 30 to 178 minutes). There were five other reparative procedures such as two left ventricular aneurysrmectomy, two mitral repair, and one aortic valve replacement. There were twelve postoperative complications such as three cardiac arrhythmia, two bleeding(re-operation), one delayed sternal closure, eleven usage of intra-aortic balloon counterpulsation for low cardiac output. Two patients died, postoperative mortality was 6.5% . Twenty-nine patients were relieved of chest pain and left ventricular ejection fraction after operation was significantly higher(38.5${\pm}$11.6%, p 0.001) as compared with preoperative left ventricular ejection fraction(25.3${\pm}$2.3%). The follow up period of out patient was 25. 3 months. Conclusion: In patients with coronary artery disease and advanced left ventricular dysfunction, coronary artery bypass grafting can be performed relatively safely with improvement in left ventricular function, but it will be necessary to study long term results.

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