• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk evaluation and mitigation

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Evaluation of Flood Regulation Service of Urban Ecosystem Using InVEST mode (InVEST 모형을 이용한 도시 생태계의 홍수 조절서비스 평가)

  • Lee, Tae-ho;Cheon, Gum-sung;Kwon, Hyuk-soo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.51-64
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    • 2022
  • Along with the urbanization, the risk of urban flooding due to climate change is increasing. Flood regulation, one of the ecosystem services, is implemented in the different level of function of flood risk mitigation by the type of ecosystem such as forests, arable land, wetlands etc. Land use changes due to development pressures have become an important factor in increasing the vulnerability by flash flood. This study has conducted evaluating the urban flood regulation service using InVEST UFRM(Urban Flood Risk Model). As a result of the simulation, the potential water retention by ecosystem type in the event of a flash flood according to RCP 4.5(10 year frequency) scenario was 1,569,611 tons in urbanized/dried areas, 907,706 tons in agricultural areas, 1,496,105 tons in forested areas, 831,705 tons in grasslands, 1,021,742 tons in wetlands, and 206,709 tons in bare areas, the water bodies was estimated to be 38,087 tons. In the case of more severe 100-year rainfall, 1,808,376 tons in urbanized/dried areas, 1,172,505 tons in agricultural areas, 2,076,019 tons in forests, 1,021,742 tons in grasslands, 47,603 tons in wetlands, 238,363 tons in bare lands, and 52,985 tons in water bodies. The potential economic damage from flood runoff(100 years frequency) is 122,512,524 thousand won in residential areas, 512,382,410 thousand won in commercial areas, 50,414,646 thousand won in industrial areas, 2,927,508 thousand won in Infrastructure(road), 8,907 thousand won in agriculture, Total of assuming a runoff of 50 mm(100 year frequency) was estimated at 688,245,997 thousand won. In a conclusion. these results provided an overview of ecosystem functions and services in terms of flood control, and indirectly demonstrated the possibility of using the model as a tool for policy decision-making. Nevertheless, in future research, related issues such as application of models according to various spatial scales, verification of difference in result values due to differences in spatial resolution, improvement of CN(Curved Number) suitable for the research site conditions based on actual data, and development of flood damage factors suitable for domestic condition for the calculation of economic loss.

Technical Review on Risk Assessment Methodology for Carbon Marine Geological Storage Systems (이산화탄소 해양 지중저장 시스템에서의 누출 위해성 평가방법에 관한 기술적 검토)

  • Hwang, Jin-Hwan;Kang, Seong-Gil;Park, Young-Gyu
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.121-125
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    • 2010
  • Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology mitigates the emission amount of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and can reduce green house effect which causes the climate change. Deep saline aquifer or obsolete oil/gas storage etc. in the marine geological structure are considered as the candidates for the storage. The injection and storage relating technology have been interested in the global society, however the adverse effect caused by leakage from the system failure. Even the safety level of the CCS is very high and there is almost no possibility to leak but, still the risk to marine ecosystem of the high concentrated carbon dioxide exposure is not verified. The present study introduces the system and environmental risk assessment methods. The feature, event and process approach can be a good starting point and we found the some possibility from the fault tree analysis for evaluation. From the FEP analysis, we drove the possible scenario which we need to concentrate on the construction and operation stages.

Investigation and Evaluation on Performance of Durability for Freeway Concrete Viaducts in Seoul Metropolitan Area (서울시내 위치한 콘크리트 고가차도의 내구성능 조사 및 평가)

  • Lee, Chang-Soo;Yoon, In-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.2 no.1 s.4
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    • pp.143-152
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    • 2002
  • The objectives of this paper were to obtain the fundamental data to analyze the causes of deterioration of 39 freeway concrete viaducts in Seoul metropolitan area. To investigate the degree of concrete deterioration, carbonation depth, soluble chloride concentration in hardened concrete and half-cell potentials of reinforcement were measured. The number of structures which carbonation depth penetrates to reinforcement was 25% of total. The model of carbonation .ate was induced to 3.92 $\sqrt{t}$, which was 5% faster than 3.727 $\sqrt{t}$ assumed 60% water-cement ratio, R=1 in that of kishitani. After measuring chloride concentration in concrete, it was concluded that about 24% of all readings on samples from concrete exceed the critical content to minimize the risk of chloride-induced corrosion. About 31% of the freeway viaducts structures had a value lower than -350mV(vs. CSE), so it could conclude that the excessive chloride concentration was the major cause of reinforcement corrosion. Among the structures which measured half-cell potentials less than -350mV, about 50% exceeds the maximum acceptable limit of chloride concentration.

An analysis study for reasonable installation of tunnel fire safety facility (터널 방재설비의 합리적 설치를 위한 분석적 연구)

  • Park, Jin-Ouk;Yoo, Yong-Ho;Park, Byoung-Jik
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.243-248
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    • 2015
  • Domestic road and railroad construction have been increasingly growing and for reasons of mitigating traffic congestion, urban plan and refurbishment project, deeper and longer tunnels have been built. The event of fire is the most fatal accident in a tunnel, and it can be very disastrous with a high possibility. In this study, QRA (Quantitative Risk Analysis) which is one of quantitative risk analysis approaches was applied to tunnel fire safety design and the evaluation of QRA cases and the cost comparison of QRA methods were carried out. In addition analysis of risk reduction effect of tunnel fire safety system was conducted using AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and the priority of major factors that could mitigate the risk in tunnel fire was presented. As a result, significant cost reduction effect could be obtained by incorporating QRA and it is expected to design fire safety system rationally. The priority of fire safety system based on risk mitigation effect by fire safety system considering the cost is in order of water pipe, emergency lighting, evacuation passage and smoke control system.

Behavior Analysis and Control of a Moored Training Ship in an Exclusive Wharf (전용부두 계류중인 실습선의 선체거동 해석 및 제어에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Ik-Soon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.139-145
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    • 2017
  • Recently, gusts, typhoon and tsunamis have been occurring more frequently around the world. In such an emergency situation, a moored vessel can be used to predict and analyze other vessel behavior, but if the mooring system is destroyed, marine casualties can occur. Therefore, it is necessary to determine quantitatively whether a vessel should be kept in the harbour or evacuate. In this study, moored ship safety in an exclusive wharf according to swell effects on motion and mooring load have been investigated using numerical simulations. The maximum tension exerted on mooring lines exceeded the Safety Working Load for intervals 12 and 15 seconds. The maximum bollard force also exceeded 35 tons (allowable force) in all evaluation cases. The surge motion criteria result for safe working conditions exceeded 3 meters more than the wave period 12 seconds with a wind speed of 25 knots. As a result, a risk rating matrix (risk category- very high risk, high risk and moderate risk) was developed with reference to major external forces such as wind force, wave height and wave periods to provide criteria for determining the control of capabilities of mooring systems to prevent accidents.

Sensitivity analysis of input variables to establish fire damage thresholds for redundant electrical panels

  • Kim, Byeongjun;Lee, Jaiho;Shin, Weon Gyu
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.84-96
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    • 2022
  • In the worst case, a temporary ignition source (also known as transient combustibles) between two electrical panels can damage both panels. Mitigation strategies for electrical panel fires were previously developed using fire modeling and risk analysis. However, since they do not comply with deterministic fire protection requirements, it is necessary to analyze the boundary values at which combustibles may damage targets depending on various factors. In the present study, a sensitivity analysis of input variables related to the damage threshold of two electrical panels was performed for dimensionless geometry using a Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). A new methodology using a damage evaluation map was developed to assess the damage of the electrical panel. The input variables were the distance between the electrical panels, the vertical height of the fuel, the size of the fire, the wind speed and the wind direction. The heat flux was determined to increase as the vertical distance between the fuel and the panel decreased, and the largest heat flux was predicted when the vertical separation distance divided by one half flame length was 0.3-0.5. As the distance between the panels increases, the heat flux decreases according to the power law, and damage can be avoided when the distance between the fuel and the panel is twice the length of the panel. When the wind direction is east and south, to avoid damage to the electrical panel the distance must be increased by 1.5 times compared to no wind. The present scale model can be applied to any configuration where combustibles are located between two electrical panels, and can provide useful guidance for the design of redundant electrical panels.

Contributors to Fatigue of Mine Workers in the South African Gold and Platinum Sector

  • Pelders, Jodi;Nelson, Gill
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.188-195
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    • 2019
  • Background: Mine workers in South Africa face challenges relating to poor health and safety, including fatigue risks, and poor socioeconomic and living conditions. Fatigue results in impaired mental and physical performance. The aim of this study was to assess contributors to fatigue of mine workers in South Africa. Methods: Data collection took place at four gold mines and one platinum mine in South Africa. A total of 21 focus groups were held with individuals in management, union representatives, and mine workers, and 564 questionnaires were completed by mine workers to gather information about fatigue and potential contributors to fatigue at these mines. Results: Qualitatively (through focus groups), fatigue was attributed to extended working hours, harsh working conditions, high workloads, production pressure, and resource constraints, along with aspects relating to demographic and socioeconomic factors, living conditions, lifestyle, health, and wellness. Greater fatigue was significantly associated with younger age, indebtedness, a lack of exercise, poor nutrition, less sleep, increased alcohol use, poor self-reported health, more sick leave, higher stress, and lower job satisfaction. Conclusion: The aim of the study was achieved; numerous work-, sociodemographic-, lifestyle-, and wellness-related factors were linked to fatigue in the participating mine workers. Contributors to fatigue should be addressed to improve health, safety, and sustainability in the industry.

Classifying meteorological drought severity using a hidden Markov Bayesian classifier

  • Sattar, Muhammad Nouman;Park, Dong-Hyeok;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.150-150
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    • 2019
  • The development of prolong and severe drought can directly impact on the environment, agriculture, economics and society of country. A lot of efforts have been made across worldwide in the planning, monitoring and mitigation of drought. Currently, different drought indices such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) are developed and most commonly used to monitor drought characteristics quantitatively. However, it will be very meaningful and essential to develop a more effective technique for assessment and monitoring of onset and end of drought. Therefore, in this study, the hidden Markov Bayesian classifier (MBC) was employed for the assessment of onset and end of meteorological drought classes. The results showed that the probabilities of different classes based on the MBC were quite suitable and can be employed to estimate onset and end of each class for meteorological droughts. The classification results of MBC were compared with SPI and with past studies which proved that the MBC was able to account accuracy in determining the accurate drought classes. For more performance evaluation of classification results confusion matrix was used to find accuracy and precision in predicting the classes and their results are also appropriate. The overall results indicate that the MBC was effective in predicating the onset and end of drought events and can utilized for monitoring and management of short-term drought risk.

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Flow Assessment and Prediction in the Asa River Watershed using different Artificial Intelligence Techniques on Small Dataset

  • Kareem Kola Yusuff;Adigun Adebayo Ismail;Park Kidoo;Jung Younghun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.95-95
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    • 2023
  • Common hydrological problems of developing countries include poor data management, insufficient measuring devices and ungauged watersheds, leading to small or unreliable data availability. This has greatly affected the adoption of artificial intelligence techniques for flood risk mitigation and damage control in several developing countries. While climate datasets have recorded resounding applications, but they exhibit more uncertainties than ground-based measurements. To encourage AI adoption in developing countries with small ground-based dataset, we propose data augmentation for regression tasks and compare performance evaluation of different AI models with and without data augmentation. More focus is placed on simple models that offer lesser computational cost and higher accuracy than deeper models that train longer and consume computer resources, which may be insufficient in developing countries. To implement this approach, we modelled and predicted streamflow data of the Asa River Watershed located in Ilorin, Kwara State Nigeria. Results revealed that adequate hyperparameter tuning and proper model selection improve streamflow prediction on small water dataset. This approach can be implemented in data-scarce regions to ensure timely flood intervention and early warning systems are adopted in developing countries.

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Anomaly Detection via Pattern Dictionary Method and Atypicality in Application (패턴사전과 비정형성을 통한 이상치 탐지방법 적용)

  • Sehong Oh;Jongsung Park;Youngsam Yoon
    • Journal of Sensor Science and Technology
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.481-486
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    • 2023
  • Anomaly detection holds paramount significance across diverse fields, encompassing fraud detection, risk mitigation, and sensor evaluation tests. Its pertinence extends notably to the military, particularly within the Warrior Platform, a comprehensive combat equipment system with wearable sensors. Hence, we propose a data-compression-based anomaly detection approach tailored to unlabeled time series and sequence data. This method entailed the construction of two distinctive features, typicality and atypicality, to discern anomalies effectively. The typicality of a test sequence was determined by evaluating the compression efficacy achieved through the pattern dictionary. This dictionary was established based on the frequency of all patterns identified in a training sequence generated for each sensor within Warrior Platform. The resulting typicality served as an anomaly score, facilitating the identification of anomalous data using a predetermined threshold. To improve the performance of the pattern dictionary method, we leveraged atypicality to discern sequences that could undergo compression independently without relying on the pattern dictionary. Consequently, our refined approach integrated both typicality and atypicality, augmenting the effectiveness of the pattern dictionary method. Our proposed method exhibited heightened capability in detecting a spectrum of unpredictable anomalies, fortifying the stability of wearable sensors prevalent in military equipment, including the Army TIGER 4.0 system.