• 제목/요약/키워드: Risk assessment modelling

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확률 기반의 위험등급평가 객관화 방안 (An Objective Method of Risk Assessment Based on Stochastic Modelling)

  • 신상식;이길수;조흥기
    • 품질경영학회지
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    • 제41권3호
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    • pp.465-474
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    • 2013
  • Purpose: To provide a variety of stable military supplies, risk should be avoided or removed. This paper aims to provide an objective method of risk assesment for risk matrix to evaluate risk level. Methods: According to previous results of risk assesment through risk matrix, some parameters and probability density functions, which include characteristics of military supplies, are selected and Risk matrix is modelled based on that. Results: Results show that a proposed method can evaluate objectively risk level through the stochastic modelling and provide well-balanced risk assessments by categorizing into 3 levels such as high, middle and low level risk. Conclusion: A current risk assessment method includes substantial subjectivity of risk assessment and as a problem about military supplies comes up, we can not show any appropriate evidences for decision of risk assessment. We propose an objective scheme employing stochastic modelling with parameters and probability density functions.

전과정평가에 있어 확률론적 건강영향분석기법 적용 -Part I : 전과정평가에 있어 확률론적 위해도 분석기법 적용방안에 관한 연구 (Application of Probabilistic Health Risk Analysis in Life Cycle Assessment -Part I : A General Framework for Uncertainty and Variability Analysis of Health Risk in Life Cycle Assessment)

  • 최광수;박재성
    • 환경영향평가
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    • 제9권3호
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    • pp.185-202
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    • 2000
  • Uncertainty and variability in Life Cycle Assessment(LCA) have been significant key issues in LCA methodology with techniques in other research area such as social and political science. Variability is understood as stemming from inherent variations in the real world, while uncertainty comes from inaccurate measurements, lack of data, model assumptions, etc. Related articles in this issues were reviewed for classification, distinguish and elaboration of probabilistic/stochastic health risk analysis application in LCA. Concept of focal zone, streamlining technique, scenario modelling and Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube risk analysis were applied to the uncertainty/variability analysis of health risk in LCA. These results show that this general framework of multi-disciplinary methodology between probabilistic health risk assessment and LCA was of benefit to decision making process by suppling information about input/output data sensitivity, health effect priority and health risk distribution. There should be further research needs for case study using this methodology.

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환경영향평가에서 건강위해성평가 기법을 이용하기 위한 실내공기 모델링 적용 (Application of Indoor Air Modelling for Using Health Risk Assessment in Environmental Impact Assessment)

  • 양원호;손부순;박종안;김임순;한상욱
    • 환경영향평가
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    • 제10권3호
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    • pp.211-221
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    • 2001
  • Recognizing interaction between the environment and humans, the EIA(environmental impact assessment) movement has sought to promote more environmentally sound and informed decisions for the sake of human welfare. Therefore, most EIA programs require the consideration of human health impacts. Yet relatively few EIA documents adequately address those impacts. This study was carried out to investigate the role of EIA for reuniting the environment and human health, for preventing and reducing significant health risks, and for improving human health impact assessment by means of risk assessment. Risk assessment consists of 4 components; hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment and risk characterization. Since most people spent their times in indoor, indoor air quality modelling can be used in exposure assessment and risk assessment. In this study, indoor $NO_2$ concentration and personal $NO_2$ exposure were estimated by Box Model using mass balance equation and time weighted average, respectively. The estimated indoor $NO_2$ concentration and the personal $NO_2$ exposure were compared by those measured, respectively. Subsequntly, health effect was assessed with these results. Consequently, exposure assessment and risk assessment using indoor air quality model may be considered to be applicable to EIA.

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RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF DIGITAL SYSTEMS IN A PROBABILISTIC RISK ANALYSIS FOR NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS

  • Authen, Stefan;Holmberg, Jan-Erik
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제44권5호
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    • pp.471-482
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    • 2012
  • To assess the risk of nuclear power plant operation and to determine the risk impact of digital systems, there is a need to quantitatively assess the reliability of the digital systems in a justifiable manner. The Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) is a tool which can reveal shortcomings of the NPP design in general and PRA analysts have not had sufficient guiding principles in modelling particular digital components malfunctions. Currently digital I&C systems are mostly analyzed simply and conventionally in PRA, based on failure mode and effects analysis and fault tree modelling. More dynamic approaches are still in the trial stage and can be difficult to apply in full scale PRA-models. As basic events CPU failures, application software failures and common cause failures (CCF) between identical components are modelled.The primary goal is to model dependencies. However, it is not clear which failure modes or system parts CCF:s should be postulated for. A clear distinction can be made between the treatment of protection and control systems. There is a general consensus that protection systems shall be included in PRA, while control systems can be treated in a limited manner. OECD/NEA CSNI Working Group on Risk Assessment (WGRisk) has set up a task group, called DIGREL, to develop taxonomy of failure modes of digital components for the purposes of PRA. The taxonomy is aimed to be the basis of future modelling and quantification efforts. It will also help to define a structure for data collection and to review PRA studies.

Risk assessment of steel and steel-concrete composite 3D buildings considering sources of uncertainty

  • Lagaros, Nikos D.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제6권1호
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    • pp.19-43
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    • 2014
  • A risk assessment framework for evaluating building structures is implemented in this study. This framework allows considering sources of uncertainty both on structural capacity and seismic demand. In particular randomness on seismic load, incident angle, material properties, floor mass and structural damping are considered; in addition the choice of fibre modelling versus plastic hinge model is also considered as a source of uncertainty. The main objective of this work is to study the contribution of these sources of uncertainty on the fragilities of steel and steel-reinforced concrete composite 3D building structures. The fragility curves are expressed in the form of a two-parameter lognormal distribution where vertical statistics in conjunction with metaheuristic optimization are implemented for calculating the two parameters.

지반공학적 재해 및 산사태 위험도 분석에 관한 연구 (International Research on Geotechnical Risk & Landslide Hazards)

  • 윤길림;윤여원;김홍연
    • 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국지반공학회 2009년도 춘계 학술발표회
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    • pp.444-455
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    • 2009
  • Great concerns on geotechnical risk & hazard assessment have been increased due to human and economic damage by natural disasters with recent global climate changes. In this paper, geotechnical problems in particular, landslides which is interested in European countries and North America, were mainly discussed. For these, 18 key topics on geotechnical risk and hazards which had been discussed at the LARAM 2008 workshop in Italy were analyzed after grouping by subjects. Main topic contents consisted of applications such as field measurement, early warning systems, uncertainty analysis of parameters using radar, optical data and statistical theory and so on. And the problems related to analysis of vulnerability and deformation due to earthquakes, investigation of gas zone using seismic reflection data in a landslide area, risk quantification and hazard assessment of landslide movements and multi-dimensional analysis for stability of complex slopes were attracted. Also, there were studies on risk matters of cultural heritage, the blockglide of clayey ground, simulations of debris flows based on GIS, quantification of the failure processes of rock slopes, a meshless method for 3D crack modelling, and finally risk assessment for cryological processes due to global warming.

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