• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Sensitivity

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Evaluation of Serological Surveillance System for Improving Foot-and-Mouth Disease Control (구제역 관리를 위한 혈청학적 예찰계획 평가)

  • Pak, Son-Il;Shin, Yeun-Kyung
    • Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.258-263
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    • 2013
  • The primary goal of this study was to compute sample sizes required to achieve the each aim of a variety of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) surveillance programs, using a statistically valid technique that takes the following factors into account: sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of diagnostic test system, desired minimum detectable prevalence, precision, population size, and desired power of the survey. In addition, sample sizes to detect FMD if the disease is present and also as proof of freedom were computed. The current FMD active surveillance programs consist of clinical, virological, and serological surveillance. For the 2012 serological surveillance, annual sample sizes (n = 265,065) are planned at four separate levels: statistical (n = 60,884) and targeted (n = 115,232) at breeding pig farms and slaughter house, in together with the detection of structural proteins (SP) antibodies against FMD (n = 88,949). Overall, the sample size was not designed taking the specific aims of each surveillance stream into account. The sample sizes for statistical surveillance, assuming stratified two-stage sampling technique, was based to detect at least one FMD-infected case in the general population. The resulting sample size can be used to obtain evidence of freedom from FMD infection, not for detecting animals that have antibodies against FMD virus non-structural proteins (NSP). Additionally, sample sizes for targeted surveillance were not aimed for the population at risk, and also without consideration of statistical point of view. To at least the author's knowledge, sampling plan for targeted, breeding pig farms and slaughter house is not necessary and need to be included in the part of statistical surveillance. Assuming design prevalence of 10% in an infinite population, a total of 29 animals are required to detect at least one positive with probability of 95%, using perfect diagnostic test system (Se = Sp = 100%). A total of 57,211 animals needed to be sampled to give 95% confidence of estimating SP prevalence of 80% at the individual animal-level with a precision of ${\pm}5%$, assuming 800 herds with an average 200 heads per farm, within-farm variance of 0.2, between-farm variance of 0.05, cost ratio of 100:1 of farm against animals. Furthermore, 779,736 animals were required to demonstrate FMD freedom, and the sample size can further be reduced depending on the parameters assumed.

Safety and Feasibility of Thallium-201 Myocardial SPECT with Intravenous Infusion of Disodium Adenosine Triphosphate (ATP) in the Diagnosis of Coronary Artery disease (관상동맥 질환 진단에서 ATP부하 T1-201 심근 관류 SPECT의 안전성과 유용성)

  • Pai, Moon-Sun;Park, Chan-H.;Yoon, Seok-Nam;Kim, Won;Kim, Han-Soo
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.250-258
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    • 1998
  • Purpose: ATP (adenosine triphosphate) is a potent coronary vasodilator with a rapid onset of action and a very short half-life. Myocardial perfusion scintigraphy with intravenous ATP has not yet been sufficiently proven in the diagnosis, follow-up, and risk stratification of coronary artery disease. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the safety, feasibility and diagnostic accuracy of pharmacologic stress thallium-201 myocardial SPECT using an intra-venous ATP infusion in patients with suspected coronary artery disease. Materials and Methods: Thallium-201 myocardial SPECT in 319 patients with suspected coronary artery disease were performed after the infusion of ATP (0.08 mg/kg/min for 6 min). The adverse effects were carefully monitored. Coronary angiography was also performed within 3 weeks. Results: Although 76.5% of the patients had some adverse effects, they were transient, mild, and well tolerated. In all patients, the ATP infusion protocol was completed and only 2 patients required aminophylline. The adverse effects were dyspnea in 63%, headache in 31%, flushing in 21%, chest pain in 14% and abdominal discomfort in 5% of the patients. The sensitivity and specificity were 80% and 90% respectively. Conclusion: Thallium-201 myocardial SPECT after 6 min-infusion of ATP at a rate of 0.08 mg/kg/min is safe and has a diagnostic value in detecting coronary artery disease.

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Signal-Averaged P Wave Analysis in Patients with Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation (발작성 심방세동 환자의 신호평균 P파 분석)

  • 김인영;이종연;이병채;이용희;이종민;김선일;김준수
    • Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2002
  • Atrial fibrillation(AF). chronic or paroxysmal is the most frequent arrhythmia in human subjects Duration of P wave in signal-averaged electrocardiography(SAECG) reflects intra-atrial conduction time and therefore. could be used as an electrophysiological marker for atrial conduction chance at the earthy stave. So we apply the analysis method using SAECG to diagnose Paroxysmal atrial fibrillation(PAF) . Subjects Participated for the study consisted of two groups: a control group(n=34) of normal healthy volunteers and a group of AF Patients(n=38) with a documented history of PAF but no other history of cardiac disease. We evaluated the effect of several filtering and determination methods to find the starting and ending feints of the P wavy on its duration. To increase the measurement reliability of P wave duration. the automatic detection method was proposed. Also. to increase the detection rate for PAF risk, the decision threshold value was optimized using receiver operation characteristics(ROC) curve. Results showed that the highest statistical difference (p〈0.001) of the P wane duration between controls and subjects was obtained at the Processing condition, using absolute threshold vague(8.75 $\mu N$) , a least mean square(LMS) high pass filter and 30 Hz cutoff frequency. The most outstanding difference(sensitivity 88 % specificity 64.4 %) between controls and subjects was obtained at the decision threshold value of 112 ms.

Real Option Study on Cookstove Offset Project under Emission Allowance Price Uncertainty (배출권 가격 불확실성을 고려한 고효율 쿡스토브 보급사업 실물옵션 연구)

  • Lee, Jaehyung
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.219-246
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    • 2020
  • From the Phase II (2018~2020) of K-ETS, the offset credit from 'CDM projects that domestic companies and others have carried out in foreign countries' can be used in the K-ETS. As a result, stakeholders in the K-ETS market are actively developing overseas CDM projects, such as the 'high-efficiency cook stove project'. which can secure a large amount of credits while marginal cost is relatively low. This paper develops the investment decision-making model of offset project for the 'high-efficiency cook stove project' using the real option approach. Under the uncertainty of the emission allowance price, the optimal investment threshold (p) is derived and sensitivity analysis is conducted. As a result, in the standard scenario (PoA-S), the optimal investment threshold is 29,054won/ton, which is lower than the stock price (pspot). However, allocation entities are not only economics in the CDM project, but also CDM risk factors such as non-renewable biomass ratio, cook stove replacement ratio, equity ratio with host country, investment period and submission limitation of emission allowance. In addition, offset project developers will be able to derive the optimal investment threshold for each business stage and use it for economic feasibility checks.

Monitoring for the Resistance of Strobilurin Fungicide Against Botrytis cinerea Causing Gray Mold Disease (Strobilurin계 살균제에 대한 잿빛곰팡이병균 Botrytis cinerea의 저항성 검정)

  • Kim, Ah Hyeong;Kim, Seon Bo;Han, Ki Don;Kim, Heung Tae
    • The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.161-167
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    • 2014
  • This study was conducted to investigate the resistance of Botrytis cinerea to azoxystrobin, which belongs to strobilurin fungicides. The sensitivity of B. cinerea isolates, which were collected from infected pepper, strawberry, cucumber and tomato by a single spore isolation, to the fungicide was tested through a agar dilution method on PDA amended with fungicides and $100{\mu}g\;mL^{-1}$ of salicylhydroxamic acid (SHAM). All isolates of B. cinerea tested in this study were classified as a sensitive and a resistant group by $1.0{\mu}g\;mL^{-1}$ of $EC_{50}$ value to azoxystrobin. While the sensitive isolates accounted for 46.5% of B. cinerea population, the resistant ones did for 53.5%. According to the regions isolating B. cinerea, the highest isolation frequency was showed as 81.1% in Chungnam among the all. Among 4 host plants as pepper, strawberry, cucumber and tomato, the highest isolation frequency was obtained in strawberry, while the lowest was done in pepper. The isolate resistant to azoxystrobin showed the cross resistance to other fungicides included into strobilurins as kresoxim-methyl and trifloxystrobin. In spite of an excellent efficacy of strobilurins, it should be taken care to use them in the field, because of the high risk in the fields.

Immuno-chromatographic Analysis for HPV-16 and 18 E7 Proteins as a Biomarker of Cervical Cancer Caused by Human Papillomavirus

  • Kim, Joo-Ho;Cho, Il-Hoon;Seo, Sung-Min;Kim, Ji-Sook;Oh, Kyu-Ha;Kang, Heun-Soo;Kim, In-Gyu;Paek, Se-Hwan
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.30 no.12
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    • pp.2999-3005
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    • 2009
  • Among the more than 120 different types of human papillomavirus (HPV), types 16 and 18 have been known to be high risk agents that cause cervical cancer. We examined, in an immuno-chromatographic analysis, the potential of using the early gene product, E7 protein, as a diagnostic marker of cervical cancer caused by HPV. We developed monoclonal antibodies specific to HPV-16 and 18 E7 proteins that were produced from bacterial cells using gene recombinant technology. For each E7 protein, the optimal antibody pair was selected using the immuno-chromatographic sandwichtype binding system based on the lateral flow through membrane pores. Under these conditions, this rapid testing assay had a detection capability as low as 2 ng/mL of E7 protein. Furthermore, since viral analysis required the host cell to be lysed using chemicals such as detergents, it was possible that the E7 protein was structurally damaged during this process, which would result in a decrease in detection sensitivity. Therefore, we examined the detrimental effects caused by different detergents on the E7 protein using HeLa cells as the host. In these experiments, we found that the damage caused by the detergent, nonylphenylpolyethylene glycol (NP-40), was minimal relative to Triton X-100 commonly used for the cell lysis. Temperature also affected the stability of the E7 protein, and we found that the E7 protein was stabilized at 4$^{\circ}C$ for about 2 h, which was 4 times longer than at room temperature. Finally, a HPV-infected cervical cancer cell line, which was used as a real sample model, was treated using the optimized conditions and the presence of E7 proteins were analyzed by immuno-chromatography. The results of this experiment demonstrated that this rapid test could specifically detect HPV-infected samples.

Clinical Experience of 3T Breast MRI in Detecting the Additional Lesions in Breast Cancer Patients (유방암 환자에서 추가 병변 평가를 위한 3 테슬러 유방자기공명영상의 임상적 경험)

  • Lee, Ji-Hye;Kim, Sung-Hun;Kang, Bong-Joo;Choi, Jae-Jeong;Lee, Ah-Won
    • Investigative Magnetic Resonance Imaging
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.121-125
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    • 2010
  • Purpose : The purpose of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of 3.0-T breast MRI for detecting additional breast cancer soon after the initial diagnosis of breast cancer. Materials and Methods : From March to June 2009, 101 patients recently diagnosed breast cancer underwent breast MRI and surgery. Parameters analyzed on MRI were total extent of tumor, suspicious findings of multifocal, multicentric, or contralateral cancer. The diagnosis of MRI-detected cancer was confirmed by means of biopsy or surgical specimen evaluation after the localization. Results : MRI showed 37 additional suspicious findings in 34 patients. Twenty nine findings were true-positive (29/37, 78.4%), including 16 cases of multifocality, 11 cases of multicentricity and 2 cases of contralateral cancer. Among these cancers, 13 (44.8%) were ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and 16 (55.1%) were infiltrating cancer. Eight findings were false-positive (8/37, 21.6%) including 6 cases of benign disease and 2 cases of high-risk lesions. Conclusion : In women with recently diagnosed breast cancer, 3.0-T MR imaging showed additional suspicious findings in 33.7%. The sensitivity and specificity for detecting additional breast cancer was 100% and 89.3%, respectively.

A Study on the Hydration Reaction Model of Expansive Additive of Ettringite-Gypsum Type (에트링가이트-석탄 복합계 팽장재의 수화반응 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Park Sun Gyu;Takahumi Noguchi;Kim Moo-Han
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.17 no.4 s.88
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    • pp.581-586
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    • 2005
  • High-performance concrete (HPC), which is particularly sensitive to self-desiccation, is required to be durable even in severe environmental conditions, i.e. costal area, cold district, etc. However, in recent years, some attention was particularly given to cracking sensitivity of high performance concrete at early age. It has been argued and demonstrated experimentally that such concrete undergoes autogenous shrinkage due to self-desiccation at early age under restrained condition, nd, as a result, internal tensile stress may develop, leading to micro cracking and macro cracking. This shrinkage-introduced crack produces a major serviceability problem for concrete structures. One possible method to reduce cracking due to autogenous shrinkage is the addition of expansive additive. Tests conducted by many researches have shown the beneficial effects of addition of expansive additive for reducing the risk of autogenous shrinkage-introduced cracking. However, the research on hydration model of expansion additive has been hardly researched up to now. This paper presents a study of the hydration model of Ettringite-Gypsum type expansive additive. As a result of comparing forecast values with experiment value, proposed model is shown to expressible of hydration of expansive additive.

Smart Camera Technology to Support High Speed Video Processing in Vehicular Network (차량 네트워크에서 고속 영상처리 기반 스마트 카메라 기술)

  • Son, Sanghyun;Kim, Taewook;Jeon, Yongsu;Baek, Yunju
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.152-164
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    • 2015
  • A rapid development of semiconductors, sensors and mobile network technologies has enable that the embedded device includes high sensitivity sensors, wireless communication modules and a video processing module for vehicular environment, and many researchers have been actively studying the smart car technology combined on the high performance embedded devices. The vehicle is increased as the development of society, and the risk of accidents is increasing gradually. Thus, the advanced driver assistance system providing the vehicular status and the surrounding environment of the vehicle to the driver using various sensor data is actively studied. In this paper, we design and implement the smart vehicular camera device providing the V2X communication and gathering environment information. And we studied the method to create the metadata from a received video data and sensor data using video analysis algorithm. In addition, we invent S-ROI, D-ROI methods that set a region of interest in a video frame to improve calculation performance. We performed the performance evaluation for two ROI methods. As the result, we confirmed the video processing speed that S-ROI is 3.0 times and D-ROI is 4.8 times better than a full frame analysis.

Isolation and Antibiotic Susceptibility of Enterococcus spp. from Fermented Soy Paste (콩발효식품에서의 장구균과 항생제 내성특성)

  • Kang, Tae-Mi;Park, Jong-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.41 no.5
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    • pp.714-720
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    • 2012
  • To evaluate the antibiotic risk of $Enterococcus$ in fermented soy paste, $Enterococcus$ spp. were isolated and identified from 31 $Cheongkukjang$ and 17 $Doenjang$, samples. Exactly 123 $Enterococcus$ spp., 119 from $Cheongkukjang$ and four from $Doenjang$, were ultimately isolated. The most frequently collected $Enterococcus$ isolates in $Cheongkukjang$ were 69 strains of $E.$ $faecium$ and 20 strains of $E.$ $faecalis$. All four $Enterococcus$ spp. from $Deonjang$ were identified as $E.$ $faecium$. All isolates were sensitive to ampicillin, chloramphenicol, penicillin, and tetracyclin $E.$ However, they showed broad spectra from sensitivity to resistance to erythromycin, ripampin, and streptomycin. Vancomycin minimum inhibition concentration (MIC) of $Enterococcus$ spp. from $Cheongkukjang$ ranged from 0.25 to 8 ${\mu}g/mL$. Almost all strains were sensitive to vancomycin, but eight strains showed intermediate resistance to vancomycin. Seventeen strains showing the highest MIC of 8 ${\mu}g/mL$ among all isolates were evenly distributed among $E.$ $faecalis$, $E.$ $faecium$, $E.$ $gallinarum$, and $E.$ $casselifalvus$, in which the strong resistant genes of $van$A and $van$B for vancomycin were not detected. Overall antibiotic resistance of $Enterococcus$ isolates was relatively low and particularly low vancomycin resistance was similar to those of $Enterococcus$ isolates obtained from other foods. Therefore, the antibiotics resistance of $Enterococcus$ and especially vancomycin-resistant $Enterococcus$ spp. from $Cheongkukjang$ and $Doenjang$, is not hazardous.