• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Probability

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Determinants of dividend payout: Advance disclosure and ordinary disclosure (결산배당 사전공시기업과 사후공시기업의 배당 결정요인 비교 분석)

  • Khil, Jaeuk;Han, Sangjeon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.8
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    • pp.86-93
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    • 2018
  • This study examines the differences in the determinants of dividend payout across advance disclosure firms and ordinary disclosure firms using firm-level data from firms listed on the Korea Exchange. Results are as follows: First, firm characteristics of advance disclosure firms significantly differ from those of ordinary disclosure firms in all variables except sales growth and operating risk variables. Second, regression results show that the determinants of dividend payout from ordinary disclosure firms are generally similar to results of previous studies. However, determinants of advance disclosure firms contain only few variables such as Tobin's Q, corporate bond yield, and operating cash flows from conventional factors. Third, logistic regression results show that factors affecting the probability of dividend payment substantially differ across advance disclosure firms and ordinary disclosure firms. These results suggest that the motivation and incentive of dividend payout from firms choosing advance disclosure are substantially and systematically different from those of ordinary disclosure firms.

Assessment of Viral Attenuation in Soil Using Probabilistic Quantitative Model (확률적 정량모델을 이용한 토양에서의 바이러스 저감 평가)

  • Park, Jeong-Ann;Kim, Jae-Hyun;Lee, In;Kim, Song-Bae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.33 no.7
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    • pp.544-551
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    • 2011
  • The objective of this study was to analyze VIRULO model, a probabilistic quantitative model, which had been developed by US Environmental Protection Agency. The model could assess the viral attenuation capacity of soil as hydrogeologic barrier using Monte Carlo simulation. The governing equations used in the model were composed of unsaturated flow equations and viral transport equations. Among the model parameters, those related to water flow for 11 soil types were from UNDODA data, and those related to 5 virus species were from the literatures. The model compared the attenuation factor with threshold of attenuation to determine the probability of failure and presented the exceedances and Monte Carlo runs as output. The analysis indicated that among 11 USDA soil types, the viral attenuation capacity of loamy sand and sand were far lower than those of clay and silt soils. Also, there were differences in the attenuation in soil among 5 viruses with poliovirus showing the highest attenuation. The viral attenuation capacity of soil decreased sharply with increasing soil water content and increased nonlinearly with increasing soil barrier length. This study indicates that VIRULO model could be considered as a useful screening tool for viral risk assessment in subsurface environment.

A study of the distribution of glass particles on patrol car seats (순찰차량 시트에서 유리조각의 분포 연구)

  • Kim, Mihye;Ko, Gangseok;Kim, Sookyung;Hong, Sungwook
    • Analytical Science and Technology
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.136-141
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    • 2016
  • In the present study, the distribution of glass particles inside 10 patrol cars of Chungnam Province has been studied. The target seats were front seats (driver’s seat, passenger’s seat) and the back seat. The target areas were the bottom of the seat (seat contacting buttocks, back of the seat, and the corner of the seat (the bottom and back attached part)). The target areas were tape lifted with an adhesive tape. The glass particles adhering to the adhesive tape were examined and counted under a stereomicroscope. The total number of glass particles found was 679. Among them, 471 (driver’s seat 293, passenger seat 178) were collected from front seats, which are usually occupied by police officers. The majority of glass particles were under 0.49 mm size. The results show that the majority of glass particles can be found on the front seats, rather than on the back seat. There is a high probability that glass particles found on the front seat adhere to police officers, so that to get further transferred to the convict upon physical contact (secondary transfer). Thus, there is a risk of misinterpretation of the value of glass evidence in the course of forensic examinations. Hence, a separate method to prevent cross contamination has to be prepared by police authorities as soon as possible.

An Advanced Assessment Strategy of Thermal Cracks Induced by Hydration Heat and Internal Restraint (내부구속에 의한 수화열 균열의 개선된 평가 방법)

  • Jeon, Se-Jin;Choi, Myoung-Sung;Kim, Young-Jin
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.18 no.5 s.95
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    • pp.677-685
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    • 2006
  • Control of the temperature difference across a section is an effective strategy to minimize the hydration-heat-induced cracks for the structures where internal restraint is dominant. The domestic code, however, overestimates probability of the crack occurrence judging from the foreign codes and construction experiences of real structures. Therefore, the background of the equation presented in the domestic code was investigated step by step to examine validity of the equation, and, as a result, it was found that the equation is established on a basis of simple elastic model where the change of elastic modulus in an early age is not considered. An advanced assessment strategy was proposed taking into account the hypoelastic model which corresponds to an incremental constitutive equation. The presented procedure resulted in an increased crack index, i.e. decreased crack risk, the value of which depends on various conditions of the mix and structures. Also, a prediction equation of the temperature difference was proposed which can readily consider the effect of the curing condition and ambient temperature in a hand calculation. For further study, the assessment equation may be more classified to strictly consider the characteristics of the mix and structures if the analytical and experimental data are accumulated.

Analysis of Renal Adverse Reaction Caused by Amphotericin B (Amphotericin B 투여에 의한 신장 유해반응 분석)

  • Lee, Song Bin;Kim, Tae Kyung;Ko, Jong Hee;Ahn, Ji Hyune;Kim, Sung Eun;Seok, Hyun Ju;Kim, Hyunah
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Pharmacy
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.340-346
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    • 2012
  • Background: Amphotericin B is a mainstay in the treatment of many systemic fungal infections due to its wide antifungal spectrum and low incidence of resistance. However, the use of amphotericin B is limited by its nephrotoxicity. Objectives: The objective of this study was to evaluate the incidence and risk factors of renal adverse drug reactions (ADRs) of conventional amphotericin B (Fungizone$^{(R)}$). In addition, we compared the changes of serum creatinine (SCr) between patients who remained conventional amphotericin B and patients who were switched to liposomal amphotericin B after occurrence of renal adverse reactions. Methods: Adult hospitalized patients who reported renal adverse reactions caused by conventional amphotericin B from January 2011 to July 2012 at pharmacovigilance center in Yonsei University Healthcare System included in this study. ADRs scored as 'doubtful' in Naranjo probability ADR scale were excluded. We retrospectively analyzed patients' basic clinical characteristics, concurrent diseases or nephrotoxic drugs in order to find variables that can correlate with occurrence of renal ADRs. Changes in SCr were compared between conventional amphotericin B group and liposomal amphotericin B group. Results: A total of 231 ADRs after administration of conventional amphotericin B in 75 patients were reported to pharmacovigilance center and assessed their severities as 'possible', 'probable', or 'definite'. Renal adverse reaction was the most common ADR with incidence rate of 42% (96 of 231 ADRs). Mean change in SCr from baseline was 0.26 mg/dL (change % 37.8) and statistically significant (p=0.000). Simple correlations analysis revealed that the number of concurrent diseases and number of nephrotoxic drugs were positively correlated with changes in SCr, but these results were not statistically significant. Among 43 patients who remained amphotericin B after occurrence of renal ADRs, 27 patients was administered conventional amphotericin B and 16 patients changed to liposomal amphotericin B. Mean change in SCr in amphotericin B group was 0.23 mg/dL (32.75%), whereas mean change in SCr in liposomal amphotericin B group were -0.28 mg/dL (19.38%) and difference between two groups was statistically significant (p=0.003). The numbers of patient with SCr elevation more than 30% were 9 (33.3%) in amphotericin B group and 2 (12.5%) in liposomal amphotericin B group (Odd Ratio=3.50, 95% Confidence Interval 0.65-18.85; p=0.130). Conclusion: An analysis of ADRs due to amphotericin B administration revealed significant mean changes in SCr from baseline. Switching to liposomal amphotericin B showed significant decrease in SCr compared with conventional amphotericin B.

Convergence study of the Disease Management Educational Experience and Cardiovascular Health Behaviors of Elderly Living Alone having Risk Factors of Metabolic Syndrome (대사증후군 위험 요인을 가진 독거노인의 질병관리교육 경험과 심혈관건강행태에 대한 융합적 연구)

  • Kim, Jong Im;Kim, Yu Mi;Park, Keum Ok;Kim, Tae Hui
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.329-337
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    • 2018
  • This study was designed to investigate the effect of medical education on the health behavior of elderly people aged 65 years or older who have the diagnosis of metabolic syndrome. From 2014 community health survey data, 9042 people with hypertension and diabetes who had disease management education experience in elderly people over 65 years old were used as the final analysis data. Data were analyzed by Chi-square test and multi-variable logistic regression. The results of the study showed that the perceived rate of cardiovascular health factors was higher in the elderly living alone with disease management education (p <.001), and the probability of walking more than 3 days per week was 1.145(P = .002), not drinking at the present time was 1.212 times (p <.001), eating thinly was 1.184 times (p = .002). From the results of this study, it is required to develop the health promotion policy that reflects the importance of education by health care providers and the health information provided to the elderly living alone.

A Reliability Analysis of Liquefaction Potential Induced by Ocean Wave (해양(海洋) 구조물(構造物) 지반(地盤)의 액상화(液狀化) 가능성(可能性)에 대한 신뢰도(信賴度) 해석(解析))

  • Kim, Joon Seok;Lee, In Mo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.41-48
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    • 1988
  • A model for predicting the probability of liquefaction induced by the ocean storm-wave is developed. Many uncertainties are encountered in the analysis of liquefaction potential for the foundation of offshore structures : (1) the storm-wave duration, (2) the effect of reconsolidation, (3) the effect of patial drainage, etc. These uncertainties are formulated in probabilistic terms and used to assess the risk of liquefaction for a given offshore site. The model developed is applied to the Ekofisk oil storage tank in the North Sea installed in 1973. Reasonable comparison is obtained between the probabilities of liquefaction obtained and the results of deterministic models or the field observations. Among the un certainties encountered, it is revealed that the effect of reconsolidation is the most critical factor. Since many problems are encountered in the deterministic models developed so far, the probabilistic model developed in this paper might be a resonable alternative tool and can be used in the design of new offshore structures.

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Numerical studies on approximate option prices (근사적 옵션 가격의 수치적 비교)

  • Yoon, Jeongyoen;Seung, Jisu;Song, Seongjoo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.243-257
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    • 2017
  • In this paper, we compare several methods to approximate option prices: Edgeworth expansion, A-type and C-type Gram-Charlier expansions, a method using normal inverse gaussian (NIG) distribution, and an asymptotic method using nonlinear regression. We used two different types of approximation. The first (called the RNM method) approximates the risk neutral probability density function of the log return of the underlying asset and computes the option price. The second (called the OPTIM method) finds the approximate option pricing formula and then estimates parameters to compute the option price. For simulation experiments, we generated underlying asset data from the Heston model and NIG model, a well-known stochastic volatility model and a well-known Levy model, respectively. We also applied the above approximating methods to the KOSPI200 call option price as a real data application. We then found that the OPTIM method shows better performance on average than the RNM method. Among the OPTIM, A-type Gram-Charlier expansion and the asymptotic method that uses nonlinear regression showed relatively better performance; in addition, among RNM, the method of using NIG distribution was relatively better than others.

A Comparative Study on Geotechnical System Response Probabilities of Fill Dams in Korea Using Internal Erosion Toolbox (내부 침식 평가 도구를 이용한 국내 필댐의 지반공학적 시스템 응답 확률에 대한 비교 연구)

  • Kim, Woo-Yong;Lim, Jeong-Yeul;Mok, Young-Jin;Jung, Young-Hoon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.245-258
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    • 2016
  • In this study the geotechnical system response probabilities (SRP) of the failure modes caused by the interal erosion in three dams with different histories of defects in Korea were analyzed via the internal erosion toolbox developed by USACE. The calculated values of SRP were compared with the values reported for other dams in worldwide and also the statistics on the past failures of dams and embankments in Korea. The calculated values of SRP related to the internal erosion adjacent to the conduits or spillway structures are as high as in the order of $10^{-5}$ that is significantly greater than the SRP values related to other mechanisms of internal erosion. The statistical data showing that the interal erosion adjacent to the structure is the most frequent cause of the failure of the dam in Korea could be a collateral evidence of this finding. In contrast, the values of SRP related to the internal erosion through foundation, one of the major causes of dam failure in worldwide, are relatively as low as in the order of $10^{-7}$. This result could be comparable with the rareness of the failure cases of dam caused by the internal erosion through foundation in Korea.

Financial Profile of Capital Structures for the Firms Listed in the KOSPI Market in South Korea (국제 금융위기 이후 KOSPI 상장회사들의 자본구조 결정요인 분석)

  • Kim, Hanjoon
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.13 no.11
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    • pp.829-844
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    • 2013
  • This study performed comprehensive tests on the four hypotheses on the capital structures for the firms listed in the KOSPI during the period from 2006 to 2011. It may be of concern to find any financial profiles on firms' leverage across the book- and market-value bases since there was relatively little attention drawn to any financial changing profile of the leverage surrounding the period of the pre-and the post-global financial crises. The findings of this study may also be compared with those of the previous related literature, by which it may be expected to enhance the robustness and consistency of the results across the different classifications on capital markets. It was found that three explanatory variables such as PFT, SIZE, and RISK, were found to be the statistically significant attributes on leverage during the tested period. Moreover, the outcome by the Fisher Exact test showed that a firm belonging to each corresponding industry may possess its reversion tendency towards the industry mean and median leverage ratios.