• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.38 no.4
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• pp.87-106
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• 2022

Uncertainties in the energy market are increasing due to technology developments (shale revolution), trade wars, COVID-19, and the Russia-Ukraine war. Especially, since 2020, the risk of international trade in the energy market has increased significantly due to changes in the supply chain of transportation and due to prolonged demand reduction because of COVID-19 and the Russian-Ukraine war. Considering these points, this study analyzed connectedness between energy price, tanker index, and uncertainty to understand the connectedness between international trade in the energy market. Main results are summarized as follows. First, as a result of analyzing stable period and unstable period of the energy price model using the MS-VAR model, it was confirmed that both the crude oil market model and the natural gas market model had a higher probability of maintaining stable period than unstable period, increasing volatility by specific events. Second, looking at the results of the analysis of the connectedness between stable period and unstable period of the energy market, it was confirmed that in the case of total connectedness, connectedness between variables was increased in the unstable period compared to the stable period. In the case of the energy market stable period, considering the degree of connectedness, it was confirmed that the effect of the tanker freight index, which represents the demand-side factor, was significant. Third, unstable period of the natural gas market model increases rapidly compared to the crude oil market model, indicating that the volatility spillover effect of the natural gas market is greater when uncertainties affecting energy prices increase compared to the crude oil market.

• Journal of Oriental Neuropsychiatry
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.71-82
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• 2023

Objectives: The existing reductionist approach has not reached complete understanding of the cause of schizophrenia. The objective of this study was to investigate yin-yang and five-element characteristics reflected on four time pillars of birth of patients with schizophrenia through comparison with the general population in the perspective of consilience-based holistic approach. Methods: This study was conducted using a random sequential recruitment method for the general population and individuals with schizophrenia aged 18 to 64 based on the exact date and time of birth using structured questionnaires. Relative positional relations of yin-yang and five-element with day master were primarily examined. In addition, the strength of day master with a score range of 0~100 points was assessed through operational score allocation. Results: Of 591 participants, 576 (346: general population, 230: individuals with schizophrenia) were analyzed. Between-group analyses showed no significant difference in the distribution of types of day master (χ²=10.41, df=9, p=0.318). However, significant between-group differences were shown in the distribution of the strength of day master (t=2.14, p=0.032) and frequency of restraining month branch (χ²=5.23, df=1, p=0.022). In logistic regression analysis, 10-point increase on the strength of day master decreased the probability of onset of schizophrenia over the age of 30 by 29.6% (p=0.002; 95% confidence interval, 0.566~0.876). Conclusions: Findings in this study suggest that four time pillars of birth might be associated with schizophrenia through yin-yang and five-element theory and synchronicity principle, implicating the plausibility of consilience-based holistic approach in the determination of risk factors or cause of schizophrenia.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.73-87
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• 2023

Furnishing traffic safety information can contribute to providing hazard warnings to drivers, thereby avoiding crashes. A smart road lighting platform that instantly recognizes road conditions using various sensors and provides appropriate traffic safety information has therefore been developed. This study analyzes the short-term traffic safety improvement effects of the smart road lighting's tunnel traffic safety information service using surrogate safety measures (SSM). Individual driving behavior was investigated by applying the vehicle trajectory data collected with RADAR in the Anin Avalanche 1 and 2 tunnel sections in Gangneung. Comparing accumulated speeding, speed variation, time-to-collision, and deceleration rate to avoid the crash before and after providing traffic safety information, all SSMs showed significant improvement, indicating that the tunnel traffic safety information service is beneficial in improving traffic safety. Analyzing potential crash risk in the subdivided tunnel and access road sections revealed that providing traffic safety information reduced the probability of traffic accidents in most segments. The results of this study will be valuable for analyzing the short-term quantitative effects of traffic safety information services.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.481-487
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• 2023

In this study, we analyzed the incidence of side effects of photoneutron dose according to the number of beams during intensity-modulated radiotherapy of prostate cancer using 15 MV. The radiation treatment plan design for intensity-modulated radiation therapy for prostate cancer was established with a prescription dose of 220 cGy per dose and a total of 7260 cGy for 33 treatments. The linear accelerator used in the experiment is Varian's True Beam STx (Varian, USA). Photoneutron dose was generated by using 15 MV energy in the planning target volume (PTV). The treatment plan was designed with IMRT 5, 7, and 9 portals using the Eclipse System (Varian Ver 10.0, USA). An optically stimulated luminescence albedo neutron dosimeter (Landauer Inc., USA) was used to measure photoneutron dose. IMRT 5 portals, 1.7 per 1,000, 7 portals, 1.8 per 1,000, 9 portals, 2.0 per 1,000 were calculated as the probability of experiencing side effects on the thyroid gland due to photoneutron dose. This study studies the risk of secondary radiation exposure dose that can occur during intensity-modulated radiation therapy, and it is considered that it will be used as useful data in relation to stochastic effects in the future.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.29 no.2A
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• pp.119-130
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• 2009

Seismic fragility curves of a structure represent the probability of exceeding the prescribed structural damage state for a given various levels of ground motion intensity such as peak ground acceleration (PGA), spectral acceleration ($S_a$) and spectral displacement ($S_d$). So those are very essential to evaluate the structural seismic performance and seismic risk. The purpose of this paper is to develop seismic fragility curves for PSC box girder bridges. In order to construct numerical fragility curve of bridge structure using nonlinear time history analysis, a set of ground motions corresponding to design spectrum are artificially generated. Assuming a lognormal distribution, the fragility curve is estimated by using the methodology proposed by Shinozuka et al. PGA is simple and generally used parameter in fragility curve as ground motion intensity. However, the PGA has not good relationship with the inelastic structural behavior. So, $S_a$ and $S_d$ with more direct relationship for structural damage are used in fragility analysis as more useful intensity measures instead of PGA. The numerical fragility curves based on nonlinear time history analysis are compared with those obtained from simple method suggested in HAZUS program.

• Journal of Korean Gerontological Nursing
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.125-134
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• 2019

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate factors related to use of restraints for older adults with dementia in long-term care settings. Methods: This study analyzed secondary data from the Nationwide Survey on Dementia Care in Korea (NaSDeCK). Demographic characteristics, disease characteristics, and functional characteristics were analyzed. Data were analyzed with χ² test, t-test, ANOVA, and logistic regression analysis. Results: Among participants, 8.2% experienced use of restraints. 'Strap' (78.3%) was the most commonly used restraint and 'Behavioral problem' (51.3%) was a major reason for the restraint. Persons who have low levels of daily activity and cognition deficits, higher levels of dependence, histories of falls within the past 3 months, and living in long-term hospitals have greater probability of restraint experience. Conclusion: Developing interventions for older adults who have a high risk of being restrained is essential to minimize unnecessary restraint use among older adults with dementia in long-term care settings. Further study exploring the interacting roles of organizational and staff factors related to use of physical restraints would provide more comprehensive perspectives in understanding this phenomenon.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.74-80
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• 2023

This study examines the characteristics of architectural review opinions as unstructured data, focusing on the most challenging risk for developers of small and medium-sized apartment projects in response to the increasing number of single-person households in Korea. Using multidimensional analysis methods, the study analyzes the review opinions of 25 projects in B City. Correspondence analysis and MDS (Multidimensional Scale) analysis show that, consistent with prior research, the keywords related to 'structure' and 'planning' dominate architectural review opinions in B City. While the MDS model's stress is very poor at 34.4%, correspondence analysis reveals that this is due to the characteristics of unstructured data in architectural reviews. In addition, the non-structured data analyzed in this study, such as architectural review opinions, exhibited a probability distribution with low kurtosis and high skewness, as they involved various combinations and occurrences of data depending on the discretion of the review committee members and the specific formats of different local governments. This often led to the emergence of keywords that differed significantly from commonly mentioned terms. Although the study has some limitations, it provides a foundation for future detailed analysis by identifying the characteristics of architectural review opinions as unstructured data.

• Health Policy and Management
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.450-456
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• 2023

Background: This study aims to develop a "Predictive Model for the Possibility of Collection Delinquent Health Insurance Contributions" for the National Health Insurance Service to enhance administrative efficiency in protecting and collecting contributions from livelihood-type defaulters. Additionally, it aims to establish customized collection management strategies based on individuals' ability to pay health insurance contributions. Methods: Firstly, to develop the "Predictive Model for the Possibility of Collection Delinquent Health Insurance Contributions," a series of processes including (1) analysis of defaulter characteristics, (2) model estimation and performance evaluation, and (3) model derivation will be conducted. Secondly, using the predictions from the model, individuals will be categorized into four types based on their payment ability and livelihood status, and collection strategies will be provided for each type. Results: Firstly, the regression equation of the prediction model is as follows: phat = exp (0.4729 + 0.0392 × gender + 0.00894 × age + 0.000563 × total income - 0.2849 × low-income type enrollee - 0.2271 × delinquency frequency + 0.9714 × delinquency action + 0.0851 × reduction) / [1 + exp (0.4729 + 0.0392 × gender + 0.00894 × age + 0.000563 × total income - 0.2849 × low-income type enrollee - 0.2271 × delinquency frequency + 0.9714 × delinquency action + 0.0851 × reduction)]. The prediction performance is an accuracy of 86.0%, sensitivity of 87.0%, and specificity of 84.8%. Secondly, individuals were categorized into four types based on livelihood status and payment ability. Particularly, the "support needed group," which comprises those with low payment ability and low-income type enrollee, suggests enhancing contribution relief and support policies. On the other hand, the "high-risk group," which comprises those without livelihood type and low payment ability, suggests implementing stricter default handling to improve collection rates. Conclusion: Upon examining the regression equation of the prediction model, it is evident that individuals with lower income levels and a history of past defaults have a lower probability of payment. This implies that defaults occur among those without the ability to bear the burden of health insurance contributions, leading to long-term defaults. Social insurance operates on the principles of mandatory participation and burden based on the ability to pay. Therefore, it is necessary to develop policies that consider individuals' ability to pay, such as transitioning livelihood-type defaulters to medical assistance or reducing insurance contribution burdens.

• Progress in Medical Physics
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.14-24
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• 2016

Since the head and neck region is densely located with organs at risk (OAR), OAR-sparing is an important issue in the treatment of head and neck cancers. This study-in which different treatment plans were performed varying the head tilt angle on brain tumor patients-investigates the optimal head elevation angle for sparing normal organs (e.g. the hippocampus) and further compares the dosimetric characteristics of different types of radiation equipment. we performed 3D conformal radiation therapy (3D-CRT), intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT), and tomotherapy on 10 patients with brain tumors in the frontal lobe while varying the head tilt angle of patients to analyze the dosimetric characteristics of different therapy methods. In each treatment plan, 95% of the tumor volume was irradiated with a dose of 40 Gy in 10 fractions. The step and shoot technique with nine beams was used for IMRT, and the same prescription dose was delivered to the tumor volume for the 3D-CRT and tomotherapy plans. The homogeneity index, conformity index, and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) were calculated. At a head elevation angle of $30^{\circ}$, conformity of the isodose curve to the target increased on average by 53%, 8%, and 5.4%. In 3D-CRT, the maximum dose received by the brain stem decreased at $15^{\circ}$, $30^{\circ}$, and $40^{\circ}$, compared to that observed at $0^{\circ}$. The NTCP value of the hippocampus observed in each modality was the highest at a head and neck angle of $0^{\circ}$ and the lowest at $30^{\circ}$. This study demonstrates that the elevation of the patients' head tilt angle in radiation therapy improves the target region's homogeneity of dose distribution by increasing the tumor control rate and conformity of the isodose curve to the target. Moreover, the study shows that the elevation of the head tilt angle lowers the NTCP by separating the tumor volume from the normal tissues, which helps spare OARs and reduce the delivered dose to the hippocampus.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.5 no.4
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• pp.1-34
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• 2010

Recently, failure rates of Kosdaq IPO firms are increasing and their survival rates tend to be very low, and when these firms do fail, often times backed by a number of governmental financial supports, they may inflict severe financial damage to investors, let alone economy as a whole. To ensure investors' confidence in Kosdaq and foster promising and healthy businesses, it is necessary to precisely assess their intrinsic values and survivability. This study investigates what contributed to the failure of IPO firms and analyzed how these elements are factored into corresponding firms' stock returns. Failure risks are assessed at the time of IPO. This paper considers factors reflecting IPO characteristics, a firm's underwriter prestige, auditor's quality, IPO offer price, firm's age, and IPO proceeds. The study further went on to examine how, if at all, these failure risks involved during IPO led to post-IPO stock prices. Sample firms used in this study include 98 Kosdaq firms that have failed and 569 healthy firms that are classified into the same business categories, and Logit models are used in estimate the probability of failure. Empirical results indicate that auditor's quality, IPO offer price, firm's age, and IPO proceeds shown significant relevance to failure risks at the time of IPO. Of other variables, firm's size and ROA, previously deemed significantly related to failure risks, in fact do not show significant relevance to those risks, whereas financial leverage does. This illustrates the efficacy of a model that appropriately reflects the attributes of IPO firms. Also, even though R&D expenditures were believed to be value relevant by previous studies, this study reveals that R&D is not a significant factor related to failure risks. In examing the relation between failure risks and stock prices, this study finds that failure risks are negatively related to 1 or 2 year size-adjusted abnormal returns after IPO. The results of this study may provide useful knowledge for government regulatory officials in contemplating pertinent policy and for credit analysts in their proper evaluation of a firm's credit standing.