• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Model

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Temperature Compensation of Optical FBG Sensors Embedded Tendon for Long-term Monitoring of Tension Force of Ground Anchor (광섬유 센서 내장형 텐던을 이용한 그라운드 앵커의 장기 장력모니터링을 위한 온도보상)

  • Sung, Hyun-Jong;Kim, Young-Sang;Kim, Jae-Min;Park, Gui-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.13-25
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    • 2012
  • Ground anchor method is one of the most popular reinforcing technology for slope in Korea. For the health monitoring of slope which is reinforced by permanent anchor for a long period, monitoring of the tension force of ground anchor is very important. However, since electromechanical sensors such as strain gauge and V/W type load cell are also subject to long-term risk as well as suffering from noise during long distance transmission and immunity to electromagnetic interference (EMI), optical FBG sensors embedded tendon was developed to measure strain of 7-wire strand by embedding FBG sensor into the center king cable of 7-wire strand. This FBG sensors embedded tendon has been successfully applied to measuring the short-term anchor force. But to adopt this tendon to long-term monitoring, temperature compensation of the FBG sensors embedded tendon should be done. In this paper, we described how to compensate the effect in compliance with the change of underground temperature during long-term tension force monitoring of ground anchors by using optical fiber sensors (FBG: Fiber Bragg Grating). The model test was carried out to determine the temperature sensitivity coefficient (${\beta}^{\prime}$) of FBG sensors embedded tendon. The determined temperature sensitivity coefficient ${\beta}^{\prime}=2.0{\times}10^{-5}/^{\circ}C$ was verified by comparing the ground temperatures predicted from the proposed sensor using ${\beta}^{\prime}$ with ground temperatures measured from ground thermometer. Finally, temperature compensations were carried out based on ${\beta}^{\prime}$ value and ground temperature measurement from KMA for the tension force monitoring results of tension type and compression type anchors, which had been installed more than 1 year before at the test site. Temperature compensated tension forces are compared with those measured from conventional load cell during the same measuring time. Test results show that determined temperature sensitivity coefficient (${\beta}^{\prime}$) of FBG sensors embedded tendon is valid and proposed temperature compensation method is also appropriate from the fact that the temperature compensated tension forces are not dependent on the change of ground temperature and are consistent with the tension forces measured from the conventional load cell.

Private Income Transfers and Old-Age Income Security (사적소득이전과 노후소득보장)

  • Kim, Hisam
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.71-130
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    • 2008
  • Using data from the Korean Labor & Income Panel Study (KLIPS), this study investigates private income transfers in Korea, where adult children have undertaken the most responsibility of supporting their elderly parents without well-established social safety net for the elderly. According to the KLIPS data, three out of five households provided some type of support for their aged parents and two out of five households of the elderly received financial support from their adult children on a regular base. However, the private income transfers in Korea are not enough to alleviate the impact of the fall in the earned income of those who retired and are approaching an age of needing financial assistance from external source. The monthly income of those at least the age of 75, even with the earning of their spouses, is below the staggering amount of 450,000 won, which indicates that the elderly in Korea are at high risk of poverty. In order to analyze microeconomic factors affecting the private income transfers to the elderly parents, the following three samples extracted from the KLIPS data are used: a sample of respondents of age 50 or older with detailed information on their financial status; a five-year household panel sample in which their unobserved family-specific and time-invariant characteristics can be controlled by the fixed-effects model; and a sample of the younger split-off household in which characteristics of both the elderly household and their adult children household can be controlled simultaneously. The results of estimating private income transfer models using these samples can be summarized as follows. First, the dominant motive lies on the children-to-parent altruistic relationship. Additionally, another is based on exchange motive, which is paid to the elderly parents who take care of their grandchildren. Second, the amount of private income transfers has negative correlation with the income of the elderly parents, while being positively correlated with the income of the adult children. However, its income elasticity is not that high. Third, the amount of private income transfers shows a pattern of reaching the highest level when the elderly parents are in the age of 75 years old, following a decreasing pattern thereafter. Fourth, public assistance, such as the National Basic Livelihood Security benefit, appears to crowd out private transfers. Private transfers have fared better than public transfers in alleviating elderly poverty, but the role of public transfers has been increasing rapidly since the welfare expansion after the financial crisis in the late 1990s, so that one of four elderly people depends on public transfers as their main income source in 2003. As of the same year, however, there existed and occupied 12% of the elderly households those who seemed eligible for the National Basic Livelihood benefit but did not receive any public assistance. To remove elderly poverty, government may need to improve welfare delivery system as well as to increase welfare budget for the poor. In the face of persistent elderly poverty and increasing demand for public support for the elderly, which will lead to increasing government debt, welfare policy needs targeting toward the neediest rather than expanding universal benefits that have less effect of income redistribution and heavier cost. Identifying every disadvantaged elderly in dire need for economic support and providing them with the basic livelihood security would be the most important and imminent responsibility that we all should assume to prepare for the growing aged population, and this also should accompany measures to utilize the elderly workforce with enough capability and strong will to work.

A Study on Participation Intention and Herd Behavior on Domestic Securities Type Crowdfunding Investors: Focusing on the Theory of Planned Behavior (국내 증권형 크라우드펀딩 투자자의 참여의도와 무리행동에 관한 연구: 계획된 행동이론을 중심으로)

  • Hwang, Nakjin;Lee, So-young
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 2020
  • This study is to identify the influence of major variables that affect the participation intention of securities type crowdfunding investors and how participation intention and perceived behavioral control affect investors' herd behavior including indirect effect analysis based on the theory of planned behavior. The ultimate purpose of this study is to understand the investment behavior of securities type crowdfunding investors and to help the relevant parties to develop various policies and business plans to revitalize the system and protect investors. An online survey was conducted on people who are interested or have experience in securities type crowdfunding to receive a total of 276 responses. Excluding outliers, a total of 261 responses were taken into account for the final analysis. For the data analysis, structural equation model analysis using SPSS 22.0 and Amos 22.0 statistical package was conducted. As a result, two of the major variables of the theory of planned behavior-attitude and subjective norm-have been found to have a positive effect on the participation intention of securities type crowdfunding investors. And after analyzing the indirect effect, the participation intention was found to play a mediating role between attitude, subjective norm and herd behavior. However, the perceived behavioral control presented as a major variable of behavioral intention in the theory of planned behavior showed that the effect on participation intention was statistically insignificant. Instead, it was found to have a direct positive effect on herd behavior. This is significant because it empirically confirmed that even if investors perceive securities type crowdfunding as easy to participate, perceived behavioral control does not seem to have a significant impact on participation intention because securities type crowdfunding is an investment in an early-stage business with a high risk of loss. On the other hand, the study has great significance in that it empirically confirmed that domestic securities type crowdfunding investors perceive the funding progress information provided by the platform as a signal and imitate many other investors, showing herd behavior when they actually make an investment. It is expected that this study will provide meaningful insights for the policy making of crowdfunding supervisory offices and platform operators by empirically identifying major variables that influence the participation intentions and herd behavior of domestic securities type crowdfunding investors.

Cholesterol-lowering and Anti-obesity Effects of Polymnia Sonchifolia Poepp. & Endl. Powder in Rats Fed a High Fat-High Cholesterol Diet (야콘 분말이 고지방-고콜레스테롤 식이를 급여한 흰쥐의 콜레스테롤 저하 및 비만 억제효과에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Ah-Ra;Lee, Jae-Joon;Lee, Yu-Mi;Jung, Hae-Ok;Lee, Myung-Yul
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.210-218
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    • 2010
  • This study was carried out to investigate the effect of Yacon (Polymnia sonchifolia Poepp. & Endl.) powder on cholesterol-lowering and anti-obesity effects in rats fed a high fat-high cholesterol diet for 4 weeks to induce hyperlipidemic and obese rat model. Weight-matched male Sprague-Dawley rats were assigned to four groups according to dietary fat, cholesterol levels and Yacon powder levels. Experimental groups were normal diet group (N), high fat-high cholesterol diet group (HFC), high fat-high cholesterol diet with 5% Yacon powder group (HFC-PSL) and high fat-high cholesterol diet with 10% Yacon powder group (HFC-PSH). The body weight gain and FER were increased by a high fat-high cholesterol diet, but gradually decreased in the Yacon powder fed groups compared with the HFC group. Food intake was lower in HFC groups compared with N group. The liver and adipose tissue weights of HFC group were heavier than those of N group, whereas those of groups administered Yacon powder were gradually decreased. The serum ALT, AST, ALP and LDH activities elevated by a high fat-high cholesterol diet were significantly decreased by Yacon powder administration. Levels of serum total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, atherogenic index and cardiac risk factor showed a decreasing tendency in the Yacon powder fed groups compared with HFC group. The serum HDL-cholesterol level decreased in the HFC group and markedly increased in the Yacon powder fed groups. Levels of total cholesterol and triglyceride in liver and adipose tissues were lower in Yacon powder administered groups than those in HFC group. These results suggest that Yacon powder may improve lipid metabolism of serum, liver, and adipose tissue and potentially reduce lipid storage.

Analysis of source localization of P300 in college students with schizotypal traits (조현형 인격 성향을 가진 대학생의 P300 국소화 분석)

  • Jang, Kyoung-Mi;Kim, Bo-Mi;Na, Eun-Chan;An, Eun-Ji;Kim, Myung-Sun
    • Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.1-26
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    • 2017
  • This study investigated the cortical generators of P300 in college students with schizotypal traits by using an auditory oddball paradigm, event-related potentials (ERPs) and standardized low resolution brain electromagnetic tomography (sLORETA) model. We also investigated the relationship between the current density of P300 and the clinical symptoms of schizophrenia. Based on the scores of Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire(SPQ), schizotypal trait (n=37) and control (n=42) groups were selected. For the measurement of P300, an auditory oddball paradigm, in which frequent standard tones (1000Hz) and rare target tones (1500Hz) were presented randomly, was used. Participants were required to count the number of the target tones during the task and report this at the end of the experiment. The two groups did not differ significantly in the accuracy of the oddball task. The schizotypal trait group showed significantly smaller P300 amplitudes than control group. In terms of source localization, both groups showed the P300 current density over bilateral frontal, parietal, temporal and occipital lobes. However, the schizotypal trait group showed significantly reduced activations in the left superior temporal gyrus and the right middle temporal gyrus, but increased activations in both left inferior frontal gyrus and right superior frontal gyrus compared to the control group. Furthermore, a negative correlation between the current density of the right superior frontal gyrus and SPQ disorganization score was found in the schizotypal trait group. These findings indicate that the individuals with schizotypal traits have dysfunctions of frontal and temporal areas, which are known to be the source of P300, as observed in patients with schizophrenia. In addition, the present results indicate that the disorganization score, rather than total score, of the SPQ is useful in predicting the risk of future schizophrenia.

A Study on Clinical Variables Contributing to Differentiation of Delirium and Non-Delirium Patients in the ICU (중환자실 섬망 환자와 비섬망 환자 구분에 기여하는 임상 지표에 관한 연구)

  • Ko, Chanyoung;Kim, Jae-Jin;Cho, Dongrae;Oh, Jooyoung;Park, Jin Young
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.101-110
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    • 2019
  • Objectives : It is not clear which clinical variables are most closely associated with delirium in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). By comparing clinical data of ICU delirium and non-delirium patients, we sought to identify variables that most effectively differentiate delirium from non-delirium. Methods : Medical records of 6,386 ICU patients were reviewed. Random Subset Feature Selection and Principal Component Analysis were utilized to select a set of clinical variables with the highest discriminatory capacity. Statistical analyses were employed to determine the separation capacity of two models-one using just the selected few clinical variables and the other using all clinical variables associated with delirium. Results : There was a significant difference between delirium and non-delirium individuals across 32 clinical variables. Richmond Agitation Sedation Scale (RASS), urinary catheterization, vascular catheterization, Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale (HAM-A), Blood urea nitrogen, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Examination II most effectively differentiated delirium from non-delirium. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that, with the exception of vascular catheterization, these clinical variables were independent risk factors associated with delirium. Separation capacity of the logistic regression model using just 6 clinical variables was measured with Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, with Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.818. Same analyses were performed using all 32 clinical variables;the AUC was 0.881, denoting a very high separation capacity. Conclusions : The six aforementioned variables most effectively separate delirium from non-delirium. This highlights the importance of close monitoring of patients who received invasive medical procedures and were rated with very low RASS and HAM-A scores.

The Effects of Depression on the Survival of Terminal Cancer Patients in a Palliative Care Unit (완화병동에 입원한 말기 암 환자에서 우울증이 생존기간에 미치는 영향)

  • Son, Ji-Sung;Kim, Won-Hyoung;Lee, Jeong-Seop;Kim, Hye-Young;Kang, Sang-Gu;Choi, Seo-Hyeon;Bae, Jae-Nam
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.138-146
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    • 2019
  • Objectives : This study examined the association between depression and survival time in terminal cancer patients admitted to the palliative care unit. Emotional problems are important for terminal cancer patients in the palliative care unit, and evaluation of patients' depression plays an important role in treatment planning. Methods : From October 2015 to August 2018, we conducted a retrospective study of 291 terminal cancer patients admitted to a palliative care unit at a university hospital and evaluated depression with PHQ-9 at admission. Of the 291 patients, 146 (50.2%) completed PHQ-9 but 145 (49.8%) were not evaluated due to loss of consciousness or rejection. Results : 4-week survival rate in the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis were 45.4% in the non-depressed group (PHQ-9<10) and 18.7% in the depressed group (PHQ-9≥10). According to the severity of depression, in the Cox proportional hazard model, the risk of mortality in moderate, moderately sever and severe group was 2.778, 1.882 and 3.423 times higher than minimal group, respectively. Conclusions : Of the patients with terminal cancer who were admitted to the palliative care unit, the survival time was shorter in the depressed group than in the non-depressed group. Further research is needed to determine if treatment of depression increase the survival in terminal cancer patients.

Study on the Fire Risk Prediction Assessment due to Deterioration contact of combustible cables in Underground Common Utility Tunnels (지하공동구내 가연성케이블의 열화접촉으로 인한 화재위험성 예측평가)

  • Ko, Jaesun
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.135-147
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    • 2015
  • Recent underground common utility tunnels are underground facilities for jointly accommodating more than 2 kinds of air-conditioning and heating facilities, vacuum dust collector, information processing cables as well as electricity, telecommunications, waterworks, city gas, sewerage system required when citizens live their daily lives and facilities responsible for the central function of the country but it is difficult to cope with fire accidents quickly and hard to enter into common utility tunnels to extinguish a fire due to toxic gases and smoke generated when various cables are burnt. Thus, in the event of a fire, not only the nerve center of the country is paralyzed such as significant property damage and loss of communication etc. but citizen inconveniences are caused. Therefore, noticing that most fires break out by a short circuit due to electrical works and degradation contact due to combustible cables as the main causes of fires in domestic and foreign common utility tunnels fire cases that have occurred so far, the purpose of this paper is to scientifically analyze the behavior of a fire by producing the model of actual common utility tunnels and reproducing the fire. A fire experiment was conducted in a state that line type fixed temperature detector, fire door, connection deluge set and ventilation equipment are installed in underground common utility tunnels and transmission power distribution cables are coated with fire proof paints in a certain section and heating pipes are fire proof covered. As a result, in the case of Type II, the maximum temperature was measured as $932^{\circ}C$ and line type fixed temperature detector displayed the fire location exactly in the receiver at a constant temperature. And transmission power distribution cables painted with fire proof paints in a certain section, the case of Type III, were found not to be fire resistant and fire proof covered heating pipes to be fire resistant for about 30 minutes. Also, fire simulation was carried out by entering fire load during a real fire test and as a result, the maximum temperature is $943^{\circ}C$, almost identical with $932^{\circ}C$ during a real fire test. Therefore, it is considered that fire behaviour can be predicted by conducting fire simulation only with common utility tunnels fire load and result values of heat release rate, height of the smoke layer, concentration of O2, CO, CO2 etc. obtained by simulation are determined to be applied as the values during a real fire experiment. In the future, it is expected that more reliable information on domestic underground common utility tunnels fire accidents can be provided and it will contribute to construction and maintenance repair effectively and systematically by analyzing and accumulating experimental data on domestic underground common utility tunnels fire accidents built in this study and fire cases continuously every year and complementing laws and regulations and administration manuals etc.

Early Bowel Complications Following Radiotherapy of Uterine Cervi)( Carcinoma (자궁경부암의 방사선치료 후 급성 장관 합병증)

  • Kim, Won-Dong
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.129-135
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    • 1999
  • Purpose : This study evaluated early bowel complications in cervix cancer patients, following external radiotherapy (ERT and high dose rate intracavitary radiation (HDR ICR). Factors affecting the risk of developing early bowel complications and its incidence are analyzed and discussed Materials and Methods : The study is the retrospective review of 66 patients who received radiotherapy at Chungbuk National University Hospital from April 1994 to December 1998. The patients underwent 41.4 or 50.4 Gy ERT according to FIGO stage and tumor size, then A point dose was boosted to 71.4 or 74.4 Gy using a remotely controlled afterloading Buchler HDR ICR. The EORTC/RTOG morbidity criteria were used to grade early bowel complications, which are valid from day 1, the commencement of therapy, through day 90. The actuarial incidence, severity of complications were investigated and clinical pretreatment factors relevant to complications were found through univariate (Wilcoxon) and multivariate (Cox proportional hazard model) analysis. Results : Of the 66 patients, 30 patients (46$\%$) developed early bowel complications; 25 patients (38$\%$) with grade 1 or 2, 4 patients (0$\%$) with grade 3 and 1 patient (2$\%$) with grade 4. The complications usually began to occur 3 weeks after the commencement of radiotherapy. The actuarial incidence of early bowel complications was 41$\%$ at 10 weeks. The early bowel complications were associated significantly with an old age and a history of previous abdomino-pelvic surgery. All three patients who had a protracted overall treatment time (about 2 weeks) due to severe bowel complication, suffered from pelvic recurrences. Conclusion : Forty six percent of patients experienced early bowel complications, most of which were grade 1 or 2 and relieved spontaneously or by medication. The patients with an old age or a previous surgery have a high probability of early complications and they may be less compliant with planned radiotherapy. So more careful precaution is necessary for these patients.

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The Decision of Voiding Cystourethrography in Children with Urinary Tract Infection (소아 요로감염에서 배뇨성 방광 요도 조영술의 결정)

  • Kim, Dong-Woon;Choi, Eung-Sang;Lim, In-Seok
    • Childhood Kidney Diseases
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.203-211
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    • 2007
  • Purpose : We attempted to compare the independent factors such as age, sex, C-reactive protein(CRP), and white blood cell count(WBC) in children with radiologic studies and assess the necessity of performing voiding cystourethrography(VCUG). Method : 98 children who have been diagnosed their first time febrile urinary tract infection from Janurary 2002 to Januray 2005 were enrolled. In all patient, the duration of fever which occurred before and after treatment was recorded, and CRP, WBC, $^{99m}Tc$-2,3-dimercaptosuccinic acid($^{99m}Tc$-DMSA) renal scans, renal ultrasound and VCUG were analyzed. Results : Of the 98 children diagnosed with urinary tract infection(UTI), 52 were male and 46 were female. 18 had abnormalities in VCUG, 17 had abnormalities in kidney ultrasound, and 20 had partial defects or diffuse uptake decrease in $^{99m}Tc$-DMSA renal scans. There were no significant relationship between incidence of radiologic abnormalities and age. The risk of renal scar was significantly higher in children who had a longer febrile period before treatment than in those with shorter period. Both CRP and WBC were significantly elevated in children with the radiological abnormalities. A positive of $^{99m}Tc$-DMSA renal scans and renal ultrasound were highly associated with vesicoureteral reflux(VUR). Conclusion : If there are abnormalities in the kidney ultrasound and $^{99m}Tc$-DMSA renal scan of a child with initial UTI, a VCUG is recommended. Even in cases without abnormal findings in $^{99m}Tc$-DMSA renal scan and renal ultrasound, clinical data such as CRP and WBC should be assessed, and VCUG should be Performed for the undetected VUR.

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