• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Model

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Adolescents' and Parental Knowledge, Health Beliefs Toward Hepatitis A Vaccination (청소년과 그들의 보호자를 대상으로 실시한 A형 간염 예방접종에 대한 지식 및 건강신념 연구)

  • Yoon, Seo Hee;Lee, Hyo Yeon;Kim, Han Wool;Kong, Kyoung Ae;Kim, Kyung-Hyo
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.147-160
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    • 2013
  • Purpose: Although the overall incidence of hepatitis A in Korea has been decreasing recently, the adolescents born before the introduction of the hepatitis A vaccine remain to be highly vulnerable to outbreak. This study examines the unvaccinated adolescents' and their parents' knowledge and health beliefs toward hepatitis A vaccination. Methods: Healthy adolescents aged 13-19 years old who had no previous history of hepatitis A vaccine and hepatitis A infection, and their parents or legal guardians were the subjects of the study. The survey was conducted using a structured questionnaire based on the Health Belief Model, and examined the subjects' demographics, knowledge, and health beliefs (i.e., perceived susceptibility, severity, benefits, and barriers). Results: We included 157 adolescents and their parents/guardians (mean age: $16.0{\pm}1.6$ and $45.6{\pm}4.7$ years, respectively). The average knowledge item score for adolescents and parents was $6.4{\pm}3.7$ and $7.3{\pm}3.4$ (out of 18), respectively. Similarly, average Health Belief Model item scores were: susceptibility, $5.6{\pm}1.6$ and $5.9{\pm}1.7$ (range: 2-10); severity, $16.3{\pm}4.1$ and $18.3{\pm}3.6$ (range:5-25); benefits, $19.7{\pm}3.3$ and $20.6{\pm}2.1$ (range:5-25); and barriers, $41.3{\pm}8.9$ and $39.0{\pm}9.1$ (range:7-85). The major reason for not undergoing hepatitis A vaccination was lack of knowledge about its importance. Conclusions: Refresher health lectures about hepatitis A and the vaccine are needed by both the adolescents and their parents. Furthermore, the inclusion of hepatitis A vaccine in the national immunization program should be considered to reduce the risk of hepatitis A outbreak and to raise the vaccination coverage among the adolescents in Korea.

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Professionalism raising of the escort which leads an instance analysis (사례분석을 통한 경호 전문성 제고)

  • Yu, Hyung-Chang
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.18
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    • pp.73-99
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    • 2009
  • There are three assassination and treatening cases in this thesis introduced as analysis data. They are shooting accidents of the U.S.A's President Reagun (1981,3.30), and the President Park Jeong Hee of South Korea(1974.8.15), assassination of the Prime Minister Lavin of Israel (1995.11.4) In March 30, 1981, there was an accident where criminal, Hinckley, fired ball cartridges right before the President Reagan got into the car to move to White House after completing the announcement of Hilton Hotel of Washington. As a result, the chest of president was shot and public information secretary and safeguard were wounded. In August, 15, pm 10:23, where the 29th 8.15 independent anniversay event was being celebrated by the people at the National theater in Jangchungdong, Seoul, the criminal Moon Sekwang fired ball cartridges, he failed to assassinate the President Park Jeong Hee of Korea, but shot the First lady Yuk Young Soo. She was wounded right part of head and died. In November 4, Saturday, pm 22:00 the Prime Minster Lavin had finished the supporting event of Middle Asia's Peace project and was taking on the car when he was killed by the criminal Amir's shooting, The accidents left very important lesson from the aspect of security analysis and it has been frequently used as a material for the education and training of safeguard organization. In Korea, as well as Presidential Security Service, national security departments have selected it as an important model for the subjects such as 'Security Analysis, 'Security Practice' and 'Security Methodology'. In the performance of security duty, security skill is the most important matter. Moreover, it has a close relationship with politics, society and culture. The purpose of this study is to analyze and reevaluate the case, which has been treated as a usual model from the aspect of security analysis, beyond its introduction. Attempted assassination of President Reagan was evaluated as a positive success example because of its rapid response of adjacent guards to evacuate Reagan, who is a guard target, within 10 seconds after the shot. When comparing it to President Kennedy Assassination of 1963, it was evaluated that guards were significantly specialized. In the study, however, it was possible to found many problems such as carelessness of guard, who is in charge of external area of event place, idle attitude for frequently used event place, confusion of wireless communication, risk of wireless security disclose, insufficient provision of compulsory record file, insufficient profiling of dangerous person and unsecured hospital and first-aid room.

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Estimation of Soil Loss Due to Cropland Increase in Hoeryeung, Northeast Korea (북한 회령지역의 농경지 변화에 따른 토양침식 추정)

  • Lee, Min-Boo;Kim, Nam-Shin;Kang, Chul-Sung;Shin, Keun-Ha;Choe, Han-Sung;Han, Uk
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.373-384
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    • 2003
  • This study analyses the soil loss due to cropland increase in the Hoeryeung area of northeast Korea, using Landsat images of 1987 TM and 2001 ETM, together with DTED, soil and geological maps, and rainfall data of 20 years. Items of land cover and land use were categorized as cropland, settlement, forest, river zone, and sand deposit by supervised classification with spectral bands 1, 2 and 3. RUSLE model is used for estimation of soil loss, and AML language for calculation of soil loss volumes. Fourier transformation method is used for unification of the geographical grids between Landsat images and DTED. GTD was selected from 1:50,000 topographic map. Main sources of soil losses over 100 ton/year may be the river zone and settlement in the both times of 1987 and 2001, but the image of the 2001 shows that sources areas have developed up to the higher mountain slopes. In the cropland average, increases of hight and gradient are 24m and $0.8^{\circ}$ from 1987 to 2001. In the case of new developed cropland, average increases are 75m and $2.5^{\circ}$, and highest soil loss has occurred at the elevation between 300 and 500m. The soil loss 57 ton of 1987 year increased 85 ton of 2001 year. Soil loss is highest in $30{\sim}50^{\circ}$ slope zones in both years, but in 2001 year, soil loss increased under $30^{\circ}$ zones. The size of area over 200 ton/year, indicating higher risk of landslides, have increased from $28.6km^2$ of 1987 year to $48.8km^2$ of 2001 year.

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A Study on Optimal Site Selection for Automatic Mountain Meteorology Observation System (AMOS): the Case of Honam and Jeju Areas (최적의 산악기상관측망 적정위치 선정 연구 - 호남·제주 권역을 대상으로)

  • Yoon, Sukhee;Won, Myoungsoo;Jang, Keunchang
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.208-220
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    • 2016
  • Automatic Mountain Meteorology Observation System (AMOS) is an important ingredient for several climatological and forest disaster prediction studies. In this study, we select the optimal sites for AMOS in the mountain areas of Honam and Jeju in order to prevent forest disasters such as forest fires and landslides. So, this study used spatial dataset such as national forest map, forest roads, hiking trails and 30m DEM(Digital Elevation Model) as well as forest risk map(forest fire and landslide), national AWS information to extract optimal site selection of AMOS. Technical methods for optimal site selection of the AMOS was the firstly used multifractal model, IDW interpolation, spatial redundancy for 2.5km AWS buffering analysis, and 200m buffering analysis by using ArcGIS. Secondly, optimal sites selected by spatial analysis were estimated site accessibility, observatory environment of solar power and wireless communication through field survey. The threshold score for the final selection of the sites have to be higher than 70 points in the field assessment. In the result, a total of 159 polygons in national forest map were extracted by the spatial analysis and a total of 64 secondary candidate sites were selected for the ridge and the top of the area using Google Earth. Finally, a total of 26 optimal sites were selected by quantitative assessment based on field survey. Our selection criteria will serve for the establishment of the AMOS network for the best observations of weather conditions in the national forests. The effective observation network may enhance the mountain weather observations, which leads to accurate prediction of forest disasters.

Result of Cox Maze Procedure with Bipolar Radiofrequency Electrode and Cryoablator for Persistent Atrial Fibrillation - Compared with Cut-sew Technique - (양극고주파전극과 냉동프로브를 이용한 지속성 심방세동의 수술 결과 - 절개/봉합술식과 비교 -)

  • Lee, Mi-Kyung;Choi, Jong-Bum;Lee, Jung-Moon;Kim, Kyung-Hwa;Kim, Min-Ho
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.710-718
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    • 2009
  • Background: The Cox maze procedure has been used as a standard surgical treatment for atrial fibrillation for about 20 years. Recently, the creators have used a bipolar radiofrequency electrode (Cox maze IV procedure) instead of the incision and suture (cut-sew) technique to make atrial ablation lesions for persistent atrial fibrillation. We investigated clinical outcomes for the Cox maze procedure with a bipolar radiofrequency electrode and cryoablator in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation, and compared results with clinical outcomes of the cut-sew procedure. Material and Method: Between April 2005 and July 2007, 40 patients with persistent atrial fibrillation underwent Cox maze IV procedure with a bipolar radiofrequency electrode and cryoablator (bipolar radiofrequency group). Surgical outcomes were compared with those of 35 patients who had the cut-sew technique for the Cox maze III procedure. All patients had concomitant cardiac surgery. Postoperatively, the patients were followed up every 1 to 2 months. Result: At 6 months postoperatively, the conversion rate to regular sinus rhythm was not significantly different between the two groups: 95.0% for the bipolar radiofrequency ablation group; 97.1% for the cut-sew technique (p=1.0). At the end of the follow-up period, the conversion rate to regular sinus rhythm was also not significantly different (92.5% vs. 91.6%, p=1.0). In multivariate analysis using a Cox-regression model, the postoperative atrial dimension was an independent determinant of sinus conversion in the bipolar radiofrequency ablation group (hazard ratio 31, p=0.005). In the Cox-regression model for both groups, atrial fibrillation at 6 months postoperatively (hazard ratio 92.24, p=0.003) and the postoperative left atrial dimension (hazard ratio 16.05, p=0.019) were independent risk factors of continuance or recurrence of atrial fibrillation after Cox maze procedures. Aortic cross-clamp time and cardiopulmonary bypass time were significantly shorter in the radiofrequency group than in the cut-sew group. Conclusion: In the Cox maze procedure for patients with persistent atrial fibrillation, the use of bipolar radiofrequency ablation and a cryoablator is as good as the cut-sew technique for conversion to sinus rhythm. The postoperative left atrial dimension is an independent determinant of postoperative continuance and recurrence of atrial fibrillation.

Retrospective study on survival, success rate and complication of implant-supported fixed prosthesis according to the materials in the posterior area (구치부 임플란트 지지 고정성 보철물의 재료에 따른 생존율, 성공률 및 합병증에 대한 후향적 연구)

  • Chae, Hyun-Seok;Wang, Yuan-Kun;Lee, Jung-Jin;Song, Kwang-Yeob;Seo, Jae-Min
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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    • v.57 no.4
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    • pp.342-349
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to retrospectively investigate the survival and success rate of implant-supported fixed prosthesis according to the materials in the posterior area. Other purposes were to observe the complications and evaluate the factors affecting failure. Materials and methods: Patients who had been restored implant prosthesis in the posterior area by the same prosthodontist in the department of prosthodontics, dental hospital, Chonbuk National University, in the period from January 2011 to June 2018 were selected for the study. The patient's sex, age, material, location, type of prosthesis and complications were examined using medical records. The KaplanMeier method was used to analyze the survival and success rate. The Log-rank test was conducted to compare the differences between the groups. Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the association between potential risk factors and success rate. Results: A total of 364 implants were observed in 245 patients, with an average follow-up of 17.1 months. A total of 5 implant prostheses failed and were removed, and the 3 and 5 year cumulative survival rate of all implant prostheses were 97.5 and 91.0, respectively. The 3 and 5 year cumulative success rate of all implant prostheses were 61.1% and 32.9%, respectively. Material, sex, age, location and type of prosthesis did not affect success rate (P>.05). Complications occurred in the order of proximal contact loss (53 cases), retention loss (17 cases), peri-implant mucositis (12 cases), infraocclusion (4 cases) and so on. Conclusion: Considering a high cumulative survival rate of implant-supported fixed prostheses, regardless of the materials, implant restored in posterior area can be considered as a reliable treatment to tooth replacement. However, regular inspections and, if necessary, repairs and adjustments are very important because of the frequent occurrence of complications.

Antibiotics Susceptability of Streptococcus pneumoniae Isolated from Single Tertiary Childrens' Hospital Since 2014 and Choice of Appropriate Empirical Antibiotics (최근 4년간 국내 단일 의료기관을 내원한 소아청소년에서 분리된 폐구균의 항생제 감수성 양상 분석)

  • Jung, Jiwon;Yoo, Ree Nar;Sung, Hungseop;Kim, Mina;Lee, Jina
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: We investigated the distribution and antimicrobial resistance of pneumococcal isolates from hospitalized children at Asan Medical Center for recent 4 years, and aimed to recommend proper choice of empirical antibiotics for pneumococcal infection. Methods: From March 2014 to May 2018, children admitted to Asan Medical Center Childrens' Hospital with pneumococcal infection were subjected for evaluation of minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) for ${\beta}-lactams$ and macrolide antibiotics. Patient's age, underlying disease, gender were retrospectively collected. Using Monte Carlo simulation model and MIC from our study, we predicted the rate of treatment success with amoxicillin treatment. Results: Sixty-three isolates were analyzed including 20.6% (n=13) of invasive isolates, and 79.4% (n=50) of non-invasive isolates; median age were 3.3 years old, and 87.3% of the pneumococcal infections occurred to children with underlying disease. Overall susceptibility rate was 49.2%, 68.2%, and 74.6% for amoxicillin, parenteral penicillin, and cefotaxime respectively. 23.8% and 9.5% of the isolates showed high resistance for amoxicillin, and cefotaxime. Only 4.8% (n=3) were susceptible to erythromycin. Monte Carlo simulation model revealed the likelihood of treatment success was 46.0% at the dosage of 90 mg/kg/day of amoxicillin. Conclusions: Recent pneumococcal isolates from pediatric patients with underlying disease revealed high resistance for amoxicillin and cefotaxime, and high resistance for erythromycin. Prudent choice of antibiotics based on the local data of resistance cannot be emphasized enough, especially in high risk patients with underlying disease, and timely vaccination should be implemented for prevention of the spread of resistant strains.

A Study on Foreign Exchange Rate Prediction Based on KTB, IRS and CCS Rates: Empirical Evidence from the Use of Artificial Intelligence (국고채, 금리 스왑 그리고 통화 스왑 가격에 기반한 외환시장 환율예측 연구: 인공지능 활용의 실증적 증거)

  • Lim, Hyun Wook;Jeong, Seung Hwan;Lee, Hee Soo;Oh, Kyong Joo
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.71-85
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to find out which artificial intelligence methodology is most suitable for creating a foreign exchange rate prediction model using the indicators of bond market and interest rate market. KTBs and MSBs, which are representative products of the Korea bond market, are sold on a large scale when a risk aversion occurs, and in such cases, the USD/KRW exchange rate often rises. When USD liquidity problems occur in the onshore Korean market, the KRW Cross-Currency Swap price in the interest rate market falls, then it plays as a signal to buy USD/KRW in the foreign exchange market. Considering that the price and movement of products traded in the bond market and interest rate market directly or indirectly affect the foreign exchange market, it may be regarded that there is a close and complementary relationship among the three markets. There have been studies that reveal the relationship and correlation between the bond market, interest rate market, and foreign exchange market, but many exchange rate prediction studies in the past have mainly focused on studies based on macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, current account surplus/deficit, and inflation while active research to predict the exchange rate of the foreign exchange market using artificial intelligence based on the bond market and interest rate market indicators has not been conducted yet. This study uses the bond market and interest rate market indicator, runs artificial neural network suitable for nonlinear data analysis, logistic regression suitable for linear data analysis, and decision tree suitable for nonlinear & linear data analysis, and proves that the artificial neural network is the most suitable methodology for predicting the foreign exchange rates which are nonlinear and times series data. Beyond revealing the simple correlation between the bond market, interest rate market, and foreign exchange market, capturing the trading signals between the three markets to reveal the active correlation and prove the mutual organic movement is not only to provide foreign exchange market traders with a new trading model but also to be expected to contribute to increasing the efficiency and the knowledge management of the entire financial market.

A basic study on explosion pressure of hydrogen tank for hydrogen fueled vehicles in road tunnels (도로터널에서 수소 연료차 수소탱크 폭발시 폭발압력에 대한 기초적 연구)

  • Ryu, Ji-Oh;Ahn, Sang-Ho;Lee, Hu-Yeong
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.517-534
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    • 2021
  • Hydrogen fuel is emerging as an new energy source to replace fossil fuels in that it can solve environmental pollution problems and reduce energy imbalance and cost. Since hydrogen is eco-friendly but highly explosive, there is a high concern about fire and explosion accidents of hydrogen fueled vehicles. In particular, in semi-enclosed spaces such as tunnels, the risk is predicted to increase. Therefore, this study was conducted on the applicability of the equivalent TNT model and the numerical analysis method to evaluate the hydrogen explosion pressure in the tunnel. In comparison and review of the explosion pressure of 6 equivalent TNT models and Weyandt's experimental results, the Henrych equation was found to be the closest with a deviation of 13.6%. As a result of examining the effect of hydrogen tank capacity (52, 72, 156 L) and tunnel cross-section (40.5, 54, 72, 95 m2) on the explosion pressure using numerical analysis, the explosion pressure wave in the tunnel initially it propagates in a hemispherical shape as in open space. Furthermore, when it passes the certain distance it is transformed a plane wave and propagates at a very gradual decay rate. The Henrych equation agrees well with the numerical analysis results in the section where the explosion pressure is rapidly decreasing, but it is significantly underestimated after the explosion pressure wave is transformed into a plane wave. In case of same hydrogen tank capacity, an explosion pressure decreases as the tunnel cross-sectional area increases, and in case of the same cross-sectional area, the explosion pressure increases by about 2.5 times if the hydrogen tank capacity increases from 52 L to 156 L. As a result of the evaluation of the limiting distance affecting the human body, when a 52 L hydrogen tank explodes, the limiting distance to death was estimated to be about 3 m, and the limiting distance to serious injury was estimated to be 28.5~35.8 m.

The Development and Application of the Officetel Price Index in Seoul Based on Transaction Data (실거래가를 이용한 서울시 오피스텔 가격지수 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu, Kang Min;Song, Ki Wook
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.33-45
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    • 2021
  • Due to recent changes in government policy, officetels have received attention as alternative assets, along with the uplift of office and apartment prices in Seoul. However, the current officetel price indexes use small-size samples and, thus, there is a critique on their accuracy. They rely on valuation prices which lag the market trend and do not properly reflect the volatile nature of the property market, resulting in 'smoothing'. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to create the officetel price index using transaction data. The data, provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport from 2005 to 2020, includes sales prices and rental prices - Jeonsei and monthly rent (and their combinations). This study employed a repeat sales model for sales, jeonsei, and monthly rent indexes. It also contributes to improving conversion rates (between deposit and monthly rent) as a supplementary indicator. The main findings are as follows. First, the officetel price index and jeonsei index reached 132.5P and 163.9P, respectively, in Q4 2020 (1Q 2011=100.0P). However, the rent index was approximately below 100.0. Sales prices and jeonsei continued to rise due to high demand while monthly rent was largely unchanged due to vacancy risk. Second, the increase in the officetel sales price was lower than other housing types such as apartments and villas. Third, the employed approach has seen a potential to produce more reliable officetel price indexes reflecting high volatility compared to those indexes produced by other institutions, contributing to resolving 'smoothing'. As seen in the application in Seoul, this approach can enhance accuracy and, therefore, better assist market players to understand the market trend, which is much valuable under great uncertainties such as COVID-19 environments.