• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Measure

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The Pricing of Accruals Quality with Expected Returns: Vector Autoregression Return Decomposition Approach

  • YIM, Sang-Giun
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.7-17
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: This study reexamines the test on the pricing of accruals quality. Theory suggests that information risk is a priced risk factor. Using accruals quality as the proxy for information risk, researchers have tested the pricing of information risk. The results are inconsistent potentially because of the information shock in the realized returns that are used as the proxy for expected returns. Based on this argument, this study revisits this issue excluding information-shock-free measure of expected returns. Research design, data and methodology: This study estimates expected returns using the vector autoregression model. This method extracts information shocks more thoroughly than the methods in prior studies; therefore, the concern regarding information shock is minimized. As risk premiums are larger in recession periods than in expansion periods, recession and expansion subsamples were used to confirm the robustness of the main findings. For the pricing test, this study uses two-stage cross-sectional regression. Results: Empirical results find evidence that accruals quality is a priced risk factor. Furthermore, this study finds that the pricing of accruals quality is observed only in recession periods. Conclusions: This study supports the argument that accruals quality, as well as the pricing of information risk, is a priced risk factor.

Risk Factors for Falls in Tertiary Hospital Inpatients: A Survival Analysis (상급종합병원 입원환자의 낙상 위험요인: 생존분석으로)

  • Cho, Young Shin;Lee, Young Ock;Youn, Young Sun
    • Journal of Korean Critical Care Nursing
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.57-70
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    • 2019
  • Purpose : The purpose of this study was to identify the risk factors for falls in tertiary hospital inpatients and to suggest data for developing a nursing intervention program for preventing falls. Methods: Data were collected between January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2017. Kaplan-Meier estimation was used to measure the survival rate, and the log-rank test was used for the differences between the fall group and the non-fall group. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify the risk factors for falls. Results: The incidence rate of falls for the inpatients was 1.2 cases per 1,000 days of hospitalization. The risk factors for falls were more likely to be found among those who were aged ${\geq}81$, had not undergone surgery, had poor joint motion, had unsteady gait, needed help or supervision, used assistive devices, had comorbidity, and took at least two drugs. Conclusion: For the inpatients, the risk factors for falls included age, surgery, comorbidity, medication that could change mobility, joint motion, and use of patient care equipment. It is necessary to give special attention to inpatients who have any of these risk factors and to develop a falls risk assessment tool.

A Risk Management Method Using Fuzzy Theory for Early Construction Stage (퍼지이론을 이용한 초기 건설공사의 리스크 관리 방법)

  • Hwang Ji-Sun;Lee Chan-Sik
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.5 no.2 s.18
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    • pp.136-143
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    • 2004
  • This study presents a risk management methodology using fuzzy theory for early construction stage and is focused on risk identification and risk analysis. This study identifies various risk factors associated with activities clearly construction stage, then establishes the Risk Breakdown Structure(RBS) by classifying the risks into the three groups; Common risks, risks for Earth works, and risks for Foundation works. The risk analysis method presented in this study is based on the RBS that has two levels such as upper level and lower level. The risk exposure of lower level risk factors is assessed by fuzzy inference. The weight of risks is estimated by fuzzy measure. Then, the estimated risk exposures and weights are aggregated to assess the risk exposure of upper level risks by Choquet fuzzy integral. The risk exposure of upper level risks determine the priority of risk factors in view of risk management. This study performs case study to validate the proposed method. The result of case study shows that the methodology suggested in this thesis would be utilized well in evaluating risk exposure.

An Analysis of Alternatives for the Acquisition of Naval Surface Ships based on a Multi-Objective Decision-Making Method (다목표 의사결정 방법론 기반의 수상함 획득대안 분석)

  • Kim, Kyong-Hwan;Lee, Jae-Chon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.13 no.9
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    • pp.3841-3848
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    • 2012
  • The process of an analysis of alternatives(AoA) attempts to select the best and balanced solution among a set of multiple candidate solutions under the constraints of cost, schedule, performance and risk(CSPR). The traditional AoA for the acquisition of a new weapon system has usually centered on the sequence of the requirement analysis, design synthesis, and cost estimation. An improved process for AoA is developed in this paper based on a multi-objective decision-making method, which is intended to be applied in the design concept refinement and material solution analysis stage for the acquisition of naval surface ships. The presentation of the proposed AoA approach is then followed by a case study for the next generation multi-purpose training ship based on the principles of systems engineering and also using the models of the effectiveness measure, cost estimation, and risk assessments.

Awareness of Risk Factors for Cancer among Omani adults- A Community Based Study

  • Al-Azri, Mohammed;AL-Rasbi, Khadija;Al-Hinai, Mustafa;Davidson, Robin;Al-Maniri, Abdullah
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.13
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    • pp.5401-5406
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    • 2014
  • Background: Cancer is the leading cause of mortality around the world. However, the majority of cancers occur as a result of modifiable risk factors; hence public awareness of cancer risk factors is crucial to reduce the incidence. The objective of this study was to identify the level of public awareness of cancer risk factors among the adult Omani population. Materials and Methods: A community based survey using the Cancer Awareness Measure (CAM) questionnaire was conducted in three areas of Oman to measure public awareness of cancer risk factors. Omani adults aged 18 years and above were invited to participate in the study. SPPSS (ver.20) was used to analyse the data. Results: A total of 384 participated from 500 invited individuals (response rate =77%). The majority of respondents agreed that smoking cigarettes (320, 83.3%), passive smoking (279, 72.7%) and excessive drinking of alcohol (265, 69%) are risks factors for cancer. However, fewer respondents agreed that eating less fruit and vegetables (83, 21.6%), eating more red or processed meat (116, 30.2%), being overweight (BMI> 25) (123, 32%), doing less physical exercise (119, 31%), being over 70 years old (72, 18.8%), having a close relative with cancer (134, 34.9%), infection with human papilloma virus (HPV) (117, 30.5%) and getting frequent sunburn during childhood (149, 38.8%) are risk factors for cancer. A significant association was found between participant responses and their educational level. The higher the educational level, the more likely that respondents identified cancer risk factors including smoking (p<0.0005), passive smoking (p= 0.007), excessive drinking of alcohol (p<0.0005), eating less fruit and vegetables (p= 0.001) and infection with HPV (p<0.0005). Conclusions: The majority of respondents in this study in Oman were not aware of the common risk factors for cancer. It may be possible to reduce the incidence of cancers in Oman by developing strategies to educate the public about these risk factors.

Measure of Effectiveness Analysis of Active SONAR for Detection (능동소나 탐지효과도 분석)

  • Park, Ji-Sung;Kim, Jea-Soo;Cho, Jung-Hong;Kim, Hyoung-Rok;Shin, Kee-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.118-129
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    • 2013
  • Since the obstacles and mines are of the risk factors for operating ships and submarines, the active sonar system is inevitably used to avoid the hazards in ocean environment. In this paper, modeling and simulation algorithm is used for active sonar systemto quantify the measure of mission achievability, which is known as Measure of Effectiveness(MOE), specifically for detection in this study. MOE for detection is directly formulated as a Cumulative Detection Probability(CDP) calculated from Probability of Detection(PD) in range and azimuth. The detection probability is calculated from Transmission Loss(TL) and the sonar parameters such asDirectivity Index (DI) calculated from the shape of transmitted and received array, steered beam patterns, and Reverberation Level (RL). The developed code is applied to demonstrating its applicability.

IT Risk Assessment: Case Study on Domestic Construction company (IT 리스크 평가 연구사례: 국내 건설사 적용 사례)

  • Lee, youngjai;Lee, Sungjung;Lee, Seongil
    • Journal of Korean Society of societal Security
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.47-55
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    • 2009
  • Organizations and customers lose if business activities are discontinued by an incident of information systems under the current business environment because they pursue real time enterprise and on demand enterprise. The loss includes the intangible decline in brand image, customer separation, and the tangible loss such as decrease in business profits. Thus, it is necessary to have preparedness in advance and mitigation for minimization of a loss due to the business discontinuity and IT risks. This paper described a IT risk assessment case about domestic construction company.

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Health Literacy, Health Risk Perception and Health Behavior of Elders (노인의 건강정보이해능력, 건강 관련 위험인식과 건강행위)

  • Jeong, Jeong Hee;Kim, Jung Soon
    • Research in Community and Public Health Nursing
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.65-73
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: The aim of this study is to clarify the level of health literacy, health risk perception and health behavior of Korean elders and to determine the impact of their health literacy and health risk perception on their health behavior. Methods: A descriptive correlation study was conducted with 188 elders aged 65 or older in senior welfare centers in Busan. Questionnaires were used to measure levels of health literacy, health risk perception, and health behavior. Descriptive statistics, t-test, ANOVA, Kruskal Wallis test, Pearson's correlation, and hierarchical regression were performed. Results: 43.6% of the subjects had low levels of health literacy. There was a negative relation between health literacy and health risk perception, and between health risk perception and health behavior. There was a positive relation between health literacy and health behavior. Health concern, health literacy affected health behavior. Health literacy independently accounted for 24% of health behavior. Health risk perception didn't affect health behavior. Conclusion: Many of the Korean elders had low levels of health literacy and health literacy was independently associated with health behavior. These findings show that interventions for improving health literacy are necessary to enhance health behavior of the elderly.

A Study on the Risk Reduction of Distribution Line through Analysis of Electric Shock Accident (감전재해 분석을 통한 배전선로의 위험성 저감에 관한 연구)

  • Byeon, Junghwan;Choi, Sang-won
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.14-20
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    • 2018
  • In this study, we analyze the current status of major disasters in distribution works and propose safety measures through the distribution live-line work method and electric shock risk assessment. The result of analyzing the ratio of electric shocks to the occurrence of industrial accidents in the recent 13 years shows that the death rate is higher than other industries, especially the construction industry occupying most of the disaster, and it is higher than the collapse disaster. We analyze statistic data of 101 victims selected as core words of live work, distribution line, pole and 22.9 kV in the investigation report of major accident of electric shock fatal from 2001 to 2014. The safety measure was established through the risk assessment of the distribution method using the standard model of the risk assessment based on the results of electric shock analysis on the distribution line. In order to prevent the electric shock accident which is recently being discussed, the risk assessment procedure were carried out in the above-mentioned 22.9kV special high voltage live-line operation method. We derived the risk reduction plan for the distribution line from the results of the major accidents statistic and demonstration of the line works.

Consumer Behavioral Systems to Approach or Avoid Generic Medicine (GM) Consumption in Japan

  • Hosoda, Takefumi;Fraser, Jay R.;Kim, Myung-Sook;Cheon, Hongsik John
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.105-118
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    • 2018
  • Generic medicine (GM), which is an alternative drug product for branded medicine (BM), is used less in Japan than in other OECD countries. Therefore, we investigate why the medical consumers of Japan avoid the use of GMs even though the efficacy and safety of the medicines have already been proven. We theorize that effectiveness or risk of GMs are related to the consumer attitude toward GMs is affected by the behavioral approach/activation system (BAS) which promotes actions to reach the desired state, and the behavioral inhibition system (BIS) which suppresses behaviors to avoid negative outcomes. To see which of the BAS and BIS dimensions are related to GM usage, we surveyed 374 Japanese consumers and found that Quality, Efficacy, Safety, & Cost-effectiveness with the BAS, and Functional Risk, Financial Risk, Social Risk, Physical Risk, Psychological Risk, & Time Risk with the BIS had a significant effect on consumer attitude to GMs. These results are important in that they 1), confirm the role of BAS/BIS in attitudes to GMs, 2), provide guidelines when marketing GMs, 3), help governments promote the use of GMs as a cost-saving measure, and 4), guide future surveys regarding consumer attitudes to GMs.