• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제13권21호
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• pp.29-41
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• 1990

An assessment of risk in industrial and urban environments is essential in the prevention of accident and in the analysis of situations which are hazardous to public health and safety. The risk imposed by a particular hazard increases with the likelihood of occurence of the event, the exposure and the possible consequence of that event. In a traditional approach, the calculation of a quantitative value of risk is usually based on an assignment of numerical values of each of the risk factors. Then the product of the values of likelihood, exposure and consequences called risk score is derived. However vagueness and imprecision in mathematical quantification of risk are equated with fuzziness rather than randomness. In this paper, a fuzzy set theoretic approach to risk analysis is proposed as an alternative to the techniques currently used in the area of systems safety. Then the concept of risk evaluation using linguistic representation of the likelihood, exposure and consequences is introduced. A risk assessment model using approximate reasoning technique based on fuzzy logic is presented to drive fuzzy values of risk and numerical example for risk analysis is also presented to illustrate the results.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제15권23호
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• pp.10525-10529
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• 2015

Objective: To investigate the relationship between the perception of cancer risk and likelihood of having undergone cancer screening. Materials and Methods: We used data from the Korean Health Panel Survey from December 2011 onward. Of 3,390 patients who visited a hospital during the previous year, we included data from 2,466 individuals; 924 samples were excluded due to missing data. Logistic regression analysis and the chi square test were used to investigate the association between perceived cancer risk and the likelihood of having undergone cancer screening. Results: For patients who perceived their risk of developing cancer during the next 10 years to be 30-40%, the odds ratio was increased 1.65 fold (95%CI: 1.223, 2.234) compared with those who perceived their risk to be almost zero. Although the difference was not statistically significant, perceiving cancer risk as either extremely low or extremely high appears to be associated with a reduced likelihood of having undergone cancer screening, resulting in an inverted U-shaped relationship. Conclusions: Physicians and researchers should be aware of the importance of the affective component of risk perception. Policies addressing the influence of cancer risk perception should be implemented in South Korea and worldwide.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.99-107
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• 2004

Likelihood of failure (LOF) for the external corrosion of stainless steel, which affect to a risk of facilities, was analyzed quantitatively through the risk based inspection using API-581 BRD. We found that the technical module subfactor (TMSF) decreased as the inspection number increased and it increased as the inspection effectiveness and the used year increased, and that the TMSF showed high value for the case of the marine/cooling tower drift area as a corrosion driver, In this condition, the LOF for the external corrosion of stainless steel had lower than that for the carbon and low alloy steels

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제6권4호
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• pp.239-248
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• 2004

Likelihood of failure for the external corrosion of carbon and low alloy steels, which affect to a risk of facilities, was analyzed quantitatively through the risk based inspection using API-581 BRD. We found that the technical module subfactor (TMSF) decreased as the inspection number increased and it increased as the Inspection effectiveness and the used year increased. In this condition, the TMSF showed high value for the case of the marine/cooling tower drift area as a corrosion driver, poor quality of coating, no insulation, and low insulation condition.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제7권4호
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• pp.101-110
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• 2005

The likelihood of failure for the thinning of high temperature sulfide and naphthenic acid corrosion, which affect to a risk of facilities, was analyzed through the risk based inspection using API-581 BRD. We found that the corrosion rate was increased with increasing temperature and total acid number(TAN). And maximum value of the technical module subfactor(TMSF) was not varied with operating condition, but the TMSF was sensitively changed at the range of low temperature, low flow rate, and high TAN. Also, the TMSF was increased as an used year and inspection effectiveness increased, but it was increased as thickness, inspection number, and over design decreased.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제35권1호
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• pp.63-77
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• 2006

Maximum product of spacings estimator is proposed in this paper as a competent alternative of maximum likelihood estimator for the parameters of exponentiated-Weibull distribution, which does work even when the maximum likelihood estimator does not exist. In addition, a Bayes type estimator known as generalized maximum likelihood estimator is also obtained for both of the shape parameters of the aforesaid distribution. Though, the closed form solutions for these proposed estimators do not exist yet these can be obtained by simple appropriate numerical techniques. The relative performances of estimators are compared on the basis of their relative risk efficiencies obtained under symmetric and asymmetric losses. An example based on simulated data is considered for illustration.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제32권6호
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• pp.46-53
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• 2017

The risk is expressed as consequence of damage multiplied by likelihood of failure. The installation of a protective system reduces the risk by reducing the likelihood of failure at the facility. Also, the protective system has different effects on the likelihood of failure according to the proof test cycle. However, when assessing risks in the Off-site Risk Assessment (ORA) system, the variation in risk was not reflected according to the proof test cycle of protective system. This study was conducted to examine the need for proof test and the importance of cycle setting by applying periodic proof test of the protective system to ORA. The results showed that the likelihood of failure and the risk increased with longer proof test cycle. The risk of a two-yearly proof test was eight times greater than that of a three-month cycle. From the results, the protective system needs periodic proof test. Untested protective system for a long term cannot be reliable because it is more likely to be failed state when it is called upon to operate. In order to reduce the risk to an acceptable level, it is effective to differently set the proof test cycle according to the priority. This study suggested a more systematic and accurate risk analysis standard than ORA. This standard is expected to enable an acceptable level of risk management by systematically setting the priority and proof test cycle of the protective system. It is also expected to contribute to securing the safety of chemical facilities and at the same time, will lead to the development of the ORA system.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.325-337
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• 2017

In this paper, we proposed a new long-term lifetime distribution with four parameters inserted in a risk competitive scenario with decreasing, increasing and unimodal hazard rate functions, namely the Weibull-Poisson long-term distribution. This new distribution arises from a scenario of competitive latent risk, in which the lifetime associated to the particular risk is not observable, and where only the minimum lifetime value among all risks is noticed in a long-term context. However, it can also be used in any other situation as long as it fits the data well. The Weibull-Poisson long-term distribution is presented as a particular case for the new exponential-Poisson long-term distribution and Weibull long-term distribution. The properties of the proposed distribution were discussed, including its probability density, survival and hazard functions and explicit algebraic formulas for its order statistics. Assuming censored data, we considered the maximum likelihood approach for parameter estimation. For different parameter settings, sample sizes, and censoring percentages various simulation studies were performed to study the mean square error of the maximum likelihood estimative, and compare the performance of the model proposed with the particular cases. The selection criteria Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, and likelihood ratio test were used for the model selection. The relevance of the approach was illustrated on two real datasets of where the new model was compared with its particular cases observing its potential and competitiveness.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제32권4호
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• pp.385-399
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• 2003

We first introduce the quasi-score estimating function and applied the quasi-score estimating function to nonlinear time series models. We proposed the M quasi-score estimating functions bounded functions for the quasi-score estimating functions. Also, we investigated the asymptotic properties of quasi-likelihood estimators and M quasi-likelihood estimators. Simulation results show that the M quasi-likelihood estimators work better than the least squares estimators under the heavy-tailed distributions

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.101-113
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• 2003

Quasi likelihood estimators defined by Wedderburn are derived for several nonlinear time series models. And also, the least squared estimator and Quasi-likelihood estimator are compared in sense of asymptotic relative efficiency at those models. Finally, we apply these estimations to a real data on exchanging rate and stock market prices.