• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Level

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Analysis of Causality of the Increase in the Port Congestion due to the COVID-19 Pandemic and BDI(Baltic Dry Index) (COVID-19 팬데믹으로 인한 체선율 증가와 부정기선 운임지수의 인과성 분석)

  • Lee, Choong-Ho;Park, Keun-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.161-173
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    • 2021
  • The shipping industry plummeted and was depressed due to the global economic crisis caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the US in 2008. In 2020, the shipping market also suffered from a collapse in the unstable global economic situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but unexpectedly, it changed to an upward trend from the end of 2020, and in 2021, it exceeded the market of the boom period of 2008. According to the Clarksons report published in May 2021, the decrease in cargo volume due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has returned to the pre-corona level by the end of 2020, and the tramper bulk carrier capacity of 103~104% of the Panamax has been in the ports due to congestion. Earnings across the bulker segments have risen to ten-year highs in recent months. In this study, as factors affecting BDI, the capacity and congestion ratio of Cape and Panamax ships on the supply side, iron ore and coal seaborne tonnge on the demand side and Granger causality test, IRF(Impulse Response Function) and FEVD(Forecast Error Variance Decomposition) were performed using VAR model to analyze the impact on BDI by congestion caused by strengthen quarantine at the port due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the loading and discharging operation delay due to the infection of the stevedore, etc and to predict the shipping market after the pandemic. As a result of the Granger causality test of variables and BDI using time series data from January 2016 to July 2021, causality was found in the Fleet and Congestion variables, and as a result of the Impulse Response Function, Congestion variable was found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. As a result of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, Congestion variable showed an explanatory power upto 25% for the change in BDI. If the congestion in ports decreases after With Corona, it is expected that there is down-risk in the shipping market. The COVID-19 pandemic occurred not from economic factors but from an ecological factor by the pandemic is different from the past economic crisis. It is necessary to analyze from a different point of view than the past economic crisis. This study has meaningful to analyze the causality and explanatory power of Congestion factor by pandemic.

A Convergent and Combined Activation Plan for Exercise Rehabilitation in the Era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4차 산업혁명시대에 운동재활분야의 융·복합적 활성화 방안)

  • Cho, Kyoung-Hwan
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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    • v.14 no.8
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    • pp.407-426
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study was to make convergent and combined analysis of the sport industry and exercise rehabilitation in the era of New Normal based on the Fourth Industrial Revolution and devise a comprehensive plan for future activation. For this purpose, literature review was performed mainly by analyzing the environment of the sport industry in the New Normal era based on the Fourth Industrial Revolution and by carrying out convergent and combined analysis of the sport industry to present a convergent and combined activation plan for exercise rehabilitation comprehensively as follows: First, it is necessary to make a strategy of promoting exercise rehabilitation in convergent and combined ways at the sport industry level. This means development of a convergent and combined exercise rehabilitation-tourism-ICT model as well as a convergent and combined exercise rehabilitation-ICT model through collaboration among ministries, including those of health and sports. Second, it is necessary to convert into a convergent and combined way of thinking and extend and reinforce educational competitiveness in the area of exercise rehabilitation. That is, it is necessary to refine the education and training systems for reinforcing personal ICT competence of exercise rehabilitation majors and relevant ones and provide convergent and combined business commencement education. Third, it is necessary to make different types of research and development by applying practical, convergent and combined skills based on the industrial field to exercise rehabilitation and relevant areas. Efforts should be made to overcome any risk in the era of New Normal and support business commencement with convergent and combined skills for exercise rehabilitation. Fourth, it is necessary to make mid- and long-term clusters where exercise rehabilitation and relevant businesses can be accumulated. This means building an industrial hub and complex for exercise rehabilitation and requires making an R&D-based cluster with industrial-academic-governmental collaboration, maximizing the synergy effects with local infrastructures, and fulfilling the function of realizing a spontaneous profit-generating structure.

Literature review and future tasks necessary to establish of Korean Dietary Reference Intake for choline (콜린의 한국인 영양소 섭취기준 제정 검토를 위한 문헌 고찰 및 향후 과제)

  • Shim, Eugene;Park, Jae-Hee;Lee, Yunjung;Park, Eunju
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.55 no.2
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    • pp.211-226
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    • 2022
  • Choline, an essential nutrient for humans, is required for the structural integrity of the cell membranes, methyl-group metabolism, synthesis of the neurotransmitter acetylcholine, synthesis of the membrane phospholipid components of the cell membranes, and the transport of lipids and cholesterol. Choline can be synthesized in the body, but it is insufficient to meet the daily requirements and hence it must be obtained through the diet. In the United States/Canada, Australia/New Zealand, Europe, China, and Taiwan, the adequate intake (AI) and tolerable upper intake level (UL) of choline have been established, while the establishment of the 2020 Dietary Reference Intakes for Koreans (KDRI) for choline was postponed due to the lack of a choline database for Korean foods and studies on the choline intake of Koreans. However, as part of the preparation work for the 2020 DRI revision and finalization, choline intake and the possibility of disease occurrence were verified through analysis of published data. The groundwork for the subsequent establishment of a choline DRI was laid through a literature search, evaluation, and review of the literature reported from 1949 up to 2019. This can be regarded as the culmination of this project. According to the results of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), cohort studies, case-control studies, and cross-sectional observational studies in humans, approximately 400-500 mg/day of choline intake was effective in preventing liver function damage (fatty liver), neural tube damage, cardiovascular disease, breast cancer, and cognitive function improvement. The same amount of choline intake, however, also correlated with the risk of prostate and colorectal cancer. At present, there is limited information available on choline intake and health outcomes, particularly for the Korean population. More human studies, including clinical trials on the requirements and the physiological benefits associated with dietary intake, are needed to establish the KDRI for choline.

Characteristics of the Factor Structure of the Child Behavior Checklist Dysregulation Profile for School-aged Children (학령기 아동의 CBCL 조절곤란프로파일(Child Behavior Checklist Dysregulation Profile)의 요인구조와 특성)

  • Kim, Eun-young;Ha, Eun-hye
    • Korean Journal of School Psychology
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.17-38
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    • 2020
  • This study examined the factor structure of the Child Behavior Checklist Dysregulation Profile(CBCL-DP) for school-aged children in Korea identified differences in the level of maladjustment and problematic behaviors between the clinical group which had characteristics of CBCL-DP and the control group which did not. Confirmative factor analysis was performed on three alternative models from the literature to determine which was the most appropriate factor structure for the CBCL-DP. The result showed that the bi-factor model fit the sample data better than both the one and second-factor models. To confirm that the bi-factor model was the most appropriate factor structure, regression paths with relevant variables examined. The showed that CBCL-DP with the bi-factor model was associated with executive function difficulty as reported by parents and with school adjustment and all sub-factors of strength and difficulty as reported by teachers. The results also showed that this model had a different relationship with anxiety/depression, aggressive behavior, and attention problems than the other models. The clinical group was shown to have more executive function difficulty, worse adjustment of school life and to be less likely to engage in desired behaviors than the control group. These results indicate the CBCL-DP is more related to negative outcomes than any other factor, and that the bi-factor model was found to best fit the sample data, consistent with other studies. The early discovery of CBCL-DP can be used to provide interventions for high-risk children who exhibit emotional and behavioral problems, making its detection a significant diagnostic tool. The implications of these result, the limitations of this study, and areas for future research are discussed in this paper.

Association between dietary protein intake and overweight and obesity among Korean children and adolescents: data from the 2014-2019 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (한국 아동 및 청소년의 단백질 섭취와 과체중 및 비만과의 연관성: 2014-2019년 국민건강영양조사 자료를 활용하여)

  • Sumin Kim;Kyungho Ha
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.56 no.1
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    • pp.54-69
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: Proteins are major components of the body and essential nutrients for proper growth and development. However, studies on protein intake in children and adolescents are insufficient. A few previous studies have reported the relationship with growth indicators, but results vary depending on the source of protein. Therefore, the current study investigates the relationship between protein intake and overweight and obesity among children and adolescents in Korea. Methods: Based on the 2014-2019 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 5,567 children and adolescents aged 6-18 years, who participated in a 24-hour dietary recall with information on height and weight, were included in this study. Protein intake was estimated as percentage of total energy (% of energy) and was classified into animal and plant protein according to the food source. Overweight and obesity were defined using the 2017 pediatric and adolescent growth chart. Results: Total protein intake of the subjects was estimated as 14.5% of total energy (animal protein 8.3% and plant protein 6.3%). The group with the highest total protein intake had a higher odds ratio (OR) of overweight/obesity than those with the least protein intake (OR, 1.36, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.10-1.67, p for trend = 0.003). When classified by food source, the group with the highest animal protein intake had a significantly higher OR of overweight/obesity than subjects with the lowest intake (OR, 1.30, 95% CI, 1.05-1.61, p for trend = 0.016). However, plant protein was not significantly associated with overweight/obesity. Conclusions: These findings suggest that a high intake of animal protein in children and adolescents increases the risk of being overweight and obese. In order to develop normal growth and prevent obesity in the future, it is necessary to determine an appropriate protein intake level through nutrition education programs and prospective studies on balanced protein intake.

The study of heavy rain warning in Gangwon State using threshold rainfall (침수유발 강우량을 이용한 강원특별자치도 호우특보 기준에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hyeonjia;Kang, Donghob;Lee, Iksangc;Kim, Byungsikd
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.11
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    • pp.751-764
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    • 2023
  • Gangwon State is centered on the Taebaek Mountains with very different climate characteristics depending on the region, and localized heavy rainfall is a frequent occurrence. Heavy rain disasters have a short duration and high spatial and temporal variability, causing many casualties and property damage. In the last 10 years (2012~2021), the number of heavy rain disasters in Gangwon State was 28, with an average cost of 45.6 billion won. To reduce heavy rain disasters, it is necessary to establish a disaster management plan at the local level. In particular, the current criteria for heavy rain warnings are uniform and do not consider local characteristics. Therefore, this study aims to propose a heavy rainfall warning criteria that considers the threshold rainfall for the advisory areas located in Gangwon State. As a result of analyzing the representative value of threshold rainfall by advisory area, the Mean value was similar to the criteria for issuing a heavy rain warning, and it was selected as the criteria for a heavy rain warning in this study. The rainfall events of Typhoon Mitag in 2019, Typhoons Maysak and Haishen in 2020, and Typhoon Khanun in 2023 were applied as rainfall events to review the criteria for heavy rainfall warnings, as a result of Hit Rate accuracy verification, this study reflects the actual warning well with 72% in Gangneung Plain and 98% in Wonju. The criteria for heavy rain warnings in this study are the same as the crisis warning stages (Attention, Caution, Alert, and Danger), which are considered to be possible for preemptive rain disaster response. The results of this study are expected to complement the uniform decision-making system for responding to heavy rain disasters in the future and can be used as a basis for heavy rain warnings that consider disaster risk by region.

Development and Validation of the Social Entrepreneurship Measurement Tools: From an Organizational-Level Behavioral Perspective (사회적기업가정신 척도 개발 및 타당화 연구: 조직차원의 행동적 관점에서)

  • Cho, Han Jun
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.97-113
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    • 2023
  • In order to generalize the social entrepreneurship model with cooperation orientation and increase the possibility of using the model, this study developed a measurement tool and tested it with 389 executives of social enterprises. For the development of the measurement tool, preliminary measurement items were formed through review of previous studies, and a questionnaire was tentatively composed of 40 measurement items in five areas through an expert panel review of the measurement items. A total of 389 questionnaires were collected by conducting a questionnaire survey targeting Korean social enterprise managers, and exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis were conducted using 375 questionnaires that could be analyzed. Five factors for 24 items were derived through exploratory factor analysis and reliability analysis. Through a series of analysis processes including primary and secondary confirmatory factor analysis, the model fit of the newly constructed social entrepreneurship research model was confirmed, and the validity and reliability of the measurement tools were verified. As a result of this study, the model fit of the social entrepreneurship model(social value orientation; innovativeness; pro-activeness; risk-taking; cooperation orientation) is verified, thereby improving the theoretical explanatory power of social entrepreneurship research and at the same time providing the basis and basis for theoretical expansion of follow-up research. The study proved the possibility of generalizing the social entrepreneurship model with added cooperation orientation, and at the same time, the measurement tool used in this study was widely used as a tool to measure social entrepreneurship theoretically and practically. In addition, it was confirmed that the cooperation orientation is manifested in corporate decision-making and activity behaviors for resource mobilization and capacity building, opportunity and performance creation, social capital and network reinforcement, and governance establishment of social enterprises.

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A Case Study on the Success Factors of Overseas Agricultural Startup: Focusing on the Case of Banana Farm in Cote d'Ivoire (해외 농업스타트업(Agricultural Startup) 성공요인에 관한 사례연구: 'C사'의 제2창업기(바나나 팜 개발사례)를 중심으로)

  • Jin hwan Park;Sang soon Kim
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.61-79
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    • 2023
  • This study is a case study of overseas banana farms as a global agricultural startup that has hardly been attempted so far in terms of paradigm shift in the industry, beyond regional limitations. It was researched for the purpose of revealing the success factors of 'global agricultural startup' in terms of business process, entrepreneurship, and management dimensions learned through direct participation and observation at the local level. In order to study global agricultural startups, this study also conducted a comparative analysis of global startups (global startups) and global agricultural startups(global agricultural startups). In fact, the analysis consists of 'definition', 'components', and 'success factors', and we want to confirm the difference between the two concepts that can be distinguished. The case analysis tried to maximize the advantages of 'participatory action research' by directly observing and experiencing banana farms. In the case of banana farm cases, by dividing them into preparation process for farm development and farm development and management process, various variables considered in farm management were explained through the whole process of farm management. Through the process of overcoming and responding to specific failure cases, we tried to secure the reliability and validity of the research, and the case studies related to entrepreneurship, management, and organization analyzed by applying them by subdividing them into theoretical areas belonging to components and management that were theorized in existing preceding studies. This study is almost the first study on the process of creating a local entry business by directly moving the head office overseas rather than entering overseas agriculture as a subsidiary, joint venture or overseas corporation. In particular, it is a unique case that corresponds to agriculture in terms of region(Africa), scale(startup), and industry that have not been introduced so far as a global agricultural startup. In terms of entrepreneurship, it also concretely exemplified how entrepreneurship components such as innovativeness, risk-taking propensity, proactiveness, vision sharing, social contribution, leadership, etc., which have not been attempted so far in agricultural cases, are manifested and effective. The management and cultural aspects also went beyond the argument that only cultural aspects are important in overseas business, and also confirmed individual failure cases and their responses in recruitment, job, wage, retirement, development, organizational structure management, etc. As a result, there is significance and implications of this study in that it provides theoretical confirmation as well as practical and responsive basis for 'entrepreneurship', 'farming management', and 'management' aspects in overseas agricultural startup business operation.

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Literature Review on Applying Digital Therapeutic Art Therapy for Adolescent Substance Addiction Treatment (청소년 마약류 중독 치료를 위한 디지털치료제 예술치료 적용을 위한 문헌연구)

  • Jiwon Kim;Daniel H. Byun
    • Trans-
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    • v.16
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    • pp.1-31
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    • 2024
  • The advent of digital media has facilitated easy access for adolescents to environments conducive to the purchase of narcotics. In particular, there's an increasing trend in the purchase and consumption of narcotics mediated through Social Network Services (SNS) and messenger services. Adolescents, sensitive to such environments, are at risk of experiencing neurological and mental health issues due to narcotic addiction, increasing their exposure to criminal activities, hence necessitating national-level management and support. Consequently, the quest for sustainable treatment methods for adolescents exposed to narcotics emerges as a critical challenge. In the context of high relapse rates in narcotic addiction, the necessity for cost-effective and user-friendly treatment programs is emphasized. This study conducts a literature review aimed at utilizing digital platforms to create an environment where adolescents can voluntarily participate, focusing on the development of therapeutic content through art. Specifically, it reviews societal perceptions and treatment statuses of adolescent drug addiction, analyzes the impact of narcotic addiction on adolescent brain activity and cognitive function degradation, and explores approaches for developing digital therapeutics to promote the rehabilitation of the addicted brain through analysis of precedential case studies. Moreover, the study investigates the benefits that the integration of digital therapeutic approaches and art therapy can provide in the treatment process and proposes the possibility of enhancing therapeutic effects through various treatment programs such as drama therapy, music therapy, and art therapy. The application of art therapy methods is anticipated to offer positive effects in terms of tool expansion, diversification of expression, data acquisition, and motivation. Through such approaches, an enhancement in the effectiveness of treatments for adolescent narcotic addiction is anticipated. Overall, this study undertakes foundational research for the development of digital therapeutics and related applications, offering economically viable and sustainable treatment options in consideration of the societal context of adolescent narcotic addiction.

Radiation Therapy and Chemotherapy after Breast Conserving Surgery for Invasive Breast Cancer: An Intermediate Result (침윤성 유방암에서 유방보존수술 후 방사선치료 및 항암화학 병용치료의 성적 및 위험인자 분석)

  • Lee, Seok-Ho;Choi, Jin-Ho;Lee, Young-Don;Park, Heoung-Kyu;Kim, Hyun-Young;Park, Se-Hoon;Lee, Kyu-Chan
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.16-25
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    • 2007
  • [ $\underline{Purpose}$ ]: Breast conserving surgery (BCS) followed by chemotherapy (CTx.) and radiation therapy (RT) is widely performed for the treatment of early breast cancer. This retrospective study was undertaken to evaluate our interim results in terms of failure patterns, survival and relative risk factors. $\underline{Materials\;and\;Methods}$: From January 1999 through December 2003, 129 patients diagnosed with invasive breast cancer and treated with BCS followed by RT were subject to retrospective review. The median age of the patients was 45 years (age distribution, $27{\sim}76$ years). The proportions of patients according to their tumor, nodes, and metastases (TNM) stage were 65 (50.4%) in stage I, 41 (31.7%) in stage IIa, 13 (10.1%) in stage IIb, 9 (7.0%) in stage III, and 1 patient (0.8%) in stage IIIc. For 32 patients (24.8%), axillary node metastasis was found after dissection. BCS consisted of quadrantectomy in 115 patients (89.1%) and lumpectomy in 14 patients (10.6%). Axillary node dissection at axillary level I and II was performed for 120 patients (93%). For 7 patients (5.4%), only sentinel node dissection was performed with BCS. For 2 patients (1.6%) axillary dissection of any type was not performed. Postoperative RT was given with 6 MV X-rays. A tumor dose of 50.4 Gy was delivered to the entire breast area using a tangential field with a wedge compensator. An aditional dose of $9{\sim}16\;Gy$ was given to the primary tumor bed areas with electron beams. In 30 patients (23.3%), RT was delivered to the supraclavicular node. Most patients had adjuvant CTx. with $4{\sim}6$ cycles of CMF (cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, 5-fluorouracil) regimens. The median follow-up period was 50 months (range: $17{\sim}93$ months). $\underline{Results}$: The actuarial 5 year survival rate (5Y-OSR) was 96.9%, and the 5 year disease free survival rate (5Y-DFSR) was 93.7%. Local recurrences were noted in 2 patients (true: 2, regional node: 1) as the first sign of recurrence at a mean time of 29.3 months after surgery. Five patients developed distant metastases as the first sign of recurrence at $6{\sim}33$ months (mean 21 months). Sites of distant metastatic sites were bone in 3 patients, liver in 1 patient and systemic lesions in 1 patient. Among the patients with distant metastatic sites, two patients died at 17 and 25 months during the follow-up period. According to stage, the 5Y-OSR was 95.5%, 100%, 84.6%, and 100% for stage I, IIa, IIb, and III respectively. The 5Y-DFSR was 96.8%, 92.7%, 76.9%, and 100% for stage I, IIa, IIb, and III respectively. Stage was the only risk factor for local recurrence based on univariate analysis. Ten stage III patients included in this analysis had a primary tumor size of less than 3 cm and had more than 4 axillary lymph node metastases. The 10 stage III patients received not only breast RT but also received posterior axillary boost RT to the supraclavicular node. During the median 53.3 months follow-up period, no any local or distant failure was found. Complications were asymptomatic radiation pneumonitis in 10 patients, symptomatic pneumonitis in 1 patient and lymphedema in 8 patients. $\underline{Conclusion}$: Although our follow up period is short, we had excellent local control and survival results and reaffirmed that BCS followed by RT and CTx. appears to be an adequate treatment method. These results also provide evidence that distant failure occurs earlier and more frequent as compared with local failure. Further studies and a longer follow-up period are needed to assess the effectiveness of BCS followed by RT for the patients with less than a 3 cm primary tumor and more than 4 axillary node metastases.