• 제목/요약/키워드: Risk Knowledge

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Two-layer Investment Decision-making Using Knowledge about Investor′s Risk-preference: Model and Empirical Testing.

  • Won, Chaehwan;Kim, Chulsoo
    • Management Science and Financial Engineering
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.25-41
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    • 2004
  • There have been many studies to build a model that can help investors construct optimal portfolio. Most of the previous models, however, are based upon the path-breaking Markowitz model (1959) which is a quantitative model. One of the most important problems with that kind of quantitative model is that, in reality, most of the investors use not only quantitative, but also qualitative information when they select their optimal portfolio. Since collecting both types of information from the markets are time consuming and expensive, making a set of target assets smaller, without suffering heavy loss in the rate of return, would attract investors. To extract only desired assets among all available assets, we need knowledge that identifies investors' preference for the risk of the assets. This study suggests two-layer decision-making rules capable of identifying an investor's risk preference and an architecture applying them to a quantitative portfolio model based on risk and expected return. Our knowledge-based portfolio system is to build an investor's preference-oriented portfolio. The empirical tests using the data from Korean capital markets show the results that our model contributes significantly to the construction of a better portfolio in the perspective of an investor's benefit/cost ratio than that produced by the existing portfolio models.

A Distributed Decision-Making Mechanism for Wireless P2P Networks

  • Wu, Xu;He, Jingsha;Xu, Fei;Zhang, Xi
    • Journal of Communications and Networks
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.359-367
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    • 2009
  • Trust-based solutions provide some form of payment to peers to encourage good behavior. The problem with trust management systems is that they require prior knowledge to work. In other words, peers are vulnerable to attack if they do not have knowledge or correct knowledge of other peers in a trust management system. Therefore, considering only trust is inadequate when a decision is made to identify the best set of peers to utilize. In order to solve the problem, we propose a distributed decision-making mechanism for wireless peer-to-peer (P2P) networks based on game theory and relevant trust mechanisms in which we incorporate the element of trust and risk into a single model. The main idea of our mechanism is to use utility function to express the relationship between benefits and costs of peers, and then make the decision based on expected utility as well as risk attitude in a fully distributed fashion. The unique feature of our mechanism is that it not only helps a peer to select its partners, but also mitigates vulnerabilities in trust-based mechanisms. Through analysis and experiments, we believe our approach is useful for peers to make the decision regarding who to interact with. In addition, it is also a good starting point for exploring tradeoffs among risk, trust and utility.

Analyses on the Factors Associated with Dietary Behavior Regarding Colon Cancer Risk (대장암 위험도와 관련된 식생활 행동 분석)

  • 오세영;이지현;김효종
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.202-209
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    • 2004
  • A case-control study was conducted in order to examine dietary behavioral factors associated with colorectal cancer risks. Data were collected from 128 cases with either colorectal cancer or large bowl adenomatous polyps and 129 controls regarding stages of dietary behavioral change, perceived barrier, self efficacy, nutrition knowledge, social support and food availability as well as body mass index and overall dietary quality. Cases showed less desirable behaviors with respect to fat reduction and vegetable intake compared with controls based on the analyses of the stages of dietary change. After adjustment of relevant covariates (age, gender and smoking), significant trends of increasing risk with higher level emerged for perceived barriers resulted from environmental conditions (OR = 1.6 - 2.0) and self-efficacy (OR = 2.2-2.3). No such relationships were found for nutrition knowledge and social support. The risk of colorectal cancer was associated with the kinds of foods available at home showing a borderline protective relation with milk (OR = 0.6) and respective significant and borderline direct associations for fresh meat (OR = 2.1) and soft drinks (OR = 0.6 when reversely scored). Within-group analyses presented best predictors of overall dietary quality as food availability for the case and self-efficacy and social support for the control. The findings of this study suggested a need for focusing on motivational and reinforcing factors in the development of nutrition education programs for colorectal cancer prevention.

TREATING UNCERTAINTIES IN A NUCLEAR SEISMIC PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT BY MEANS OF THE DEMPSTER-SHAFER THEORY OF EVIDENCE

  • Lo, Chung-Kung;Pedroni, N.;Zio, E.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.11-26
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    • 2014
  • The analyses carried out within the Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessments (SPRAs) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) are affected by significant aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. These uncertainties have to be represented and quantified coherently with the data, information and knowledge available, to provide reasonable assurance that related decisions can be taken robustly and with confidence. The amount of data, information and knowledge available for seismic risk assessment is typically limited, so that the analysis must strongly rely on expert judgments. In this paper, a Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) framework for handling uncertainties in NPP SPRAs is proposed and applied to an example case study. The main contributions of this paper are two: (i) applying the complete DST framework to SPRA models, showing how to build the Dempster-Shafer structures of the uncertainty parameters based on industry generic data, and (ii) embedding Bayesian updating based on plant specific data into the framework. The results of the application to a case study show that the approach is feasible and effective in (i) describing and jointly propagating aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in SPRA models and (ii) providing 'conservative' bounds on the safety quantities of interest (i.e. Core Damage Frequency, CDF) that reflect the (limited) state of knowledge of the experts about the system of interest.

Oral Cancer Awareness of the General Public in Gorakhpur City, India

  • Agrawal, Mamta;Pandey, Sushma;Jain, Shikha;Maitin, Shipra
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.13 no.10
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    • pp.5195-5199
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    • 2012
  • Objectives: Global cancer statistical data show that India has one of the highest incidence rates of oral cancer worldwide. Early detection is extremely important as it results in lower morbidity and death rates. The present study was undertaken to assess awareness of oral cancer and knowledge of its early signs and risk factors in the general public of the semi-urban Gorakhpur area of Uttar Pradesh (India). It was also intended to educate the same population for early detection by increasing their ability to recognize signs and risk factors. Method: A questionnaire-based household survey was conducted over a period of one month in different parts of Gorakhpur district, a region where tobacco use is apparently very high. A total of 2,093 persons participated in the survey. The collected data were analyzed using SPSS software to assess and associate oral cancer awareness with the prevalence, and abstract risk factors, as well as other confounding variables. Results: The general awareness, knowledge of signs and risk factors of oral cancer were found to be proportionate to the literacy level with the highest rate of awareness being among high school and graduates and lowest among illiterates. It was also observed that on most of these dimensions the younger age groups (<30 years) were significantly more knowledgeable. Conclusion: Overall, the awareness of oral cancer in the high-risk population of Gorakhpur was not satisfactory, pointing to a need for further dissemination of information on this issue and its associated risks. This is especially important for the youngsters, as this may possibly help them keep away from the deleterious habit of tobacco indulgence in any form. If necessary risk factor cessation counselling should be provided.

Nursing Students식 Perceptions on Diet and as Environmental Factors Related to Cancer Risk Factors (암 위험요인과 관련된 식이와 환경요인에 관한 간호학생의 인식)

  • 이혜경;전성주;황미혜;서순림
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.193-200
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    • 1998
  • The purpose of this study was to identify how students majoring in nursing perceive causes of cancers and the effects of diet for preventing cancers. Data for the study were collected by 651 nursing students, who were registered in the second and third year in three technical colleges and third and fourth year in two universities. The Research instruments included items on general characteristics of subjects, items about the degree of perception of the frequency of cancer onset and items on the perception of mortality. risk factors. preventive diets, knowledge, and high risk factor for cancer in specific body areas. The findings of this study are as follows : 1. Almost all subjects(92.8%) reported that the frequency of cancer onset increases and that it is 93.9% for people over 40. Degree of perception about cancer mortality was low at 33.0%. 2. As far as the perception of risk factors for cancer onset was concerned, smoking, stress, heredity, family history, and alcohol were rated high, over 80.0%. Risk factor in. eluding virus, hormones. pesticides were rated as low. 3. As to the perception of risk factor for body area as associated with diet salted and scorched food were rated at 44.5% for stomach cancer, alcohol, 50.4% for liver cancer, smoking. 72.8% for lung cancer. pregnancy times. 25.3%, and marriage age, 23.0% for uterine cancer, and no delivery experience, 40.1% for breast cancer. 4. The knowledge score for cancer was between 12 and 36, with a mean score of 26.75(SD=4.13). There was a statistically significant difference between experience in raring for cancer patients during clinical practice and knowledge score(t=3.09. p=.002).

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Risk Assessment Strategy for Decommissioning of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station

  • Yamaguchi, Akira;Jang, Sunghyon;Hida, Kazuki;Yamanaka, Yasunori;Narumiya, Yoshiyuki
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.442-449
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    • 2017
  • Risk management of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station decommissioning is a great challenge. In the present study, a risk management framework has been developed for the decommissioning work. It is applied to fuel assembly retrieval from Unit 3 spent fuel pool. Whole retrieval work is divided into three phases: preparation, retrieval, and transportation and storage. First of all, the end point has been established and the success path has been developed. Then, possible threats, which are internal/external and technical/societal/management, are identified and selected. "What can go wrong?" is a question about the failure scenario. The likelihoods and consequences for each scenario are roughly estimated. The whole decommissioning project will continue for several decades, i.e., long-term perspective is important. What should be emphasized is that we do not always have enough knowledge and experience of this kind. It is expected that the decommissioning can make steady and good progress in support of the proposed risk management framework. Thus, risk assessment and management are required, and the process needs to be updated in accordance with the most recent information and knowledge on the decommissioning works.

Factors Related to High School Students' Attitudes Toward HIV-Infected Classmates (고등학생의 HIV 감염자에 대한 태도와 관련요인 분석)

  • Chang, Young Mee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of School Health
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.215-225
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    • 2001
  • The purpose of this study was to identify factors related to High School Students' Attitudes(prejudice) toward HIV-infected classmates. 980 self-administrated questions were completed by high school male students. Stepwise Multiple Regression Analysis was performed with the following independent variables: knowledge about HIV/AIDS transmission, prevention, and HIV-antibody, interests, preventive behaviors, predicting level to peer HIV-related risk behavior, knowledge about information sites, perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, self-efficacy to prevention, related to AIDS/HIV, thought about premarital sexual behavior and homosexuality. The Regression Model is significant(R2=.1719, F=33.517, p<0.05) The significant factors are knowledge about HIV/AIDS transmission, intention of the preventive behaviors, knowledge of information sites, perceived severity, ideas about homosexuality, predicting level of peer HIV-related risk behavior. The results of this study provide information for effective education program development and health policy about AIDS prevention and management.

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Lung Cancer Knowledge among Secondary School Male Teachers in Kudat, Sabah, Malaysia

  • Al-Naggar, Redhwan Ahmed;Kadir, Samiah Yasmin Abdul
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.103-109
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    • 2013
  • Background: The objective of this study is to determine knowledge about lung cancer among secondary school male teachers in Kudat, Sabah, Malaysia. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among three secondary schools located in Kudat district, Sabah, Malaysia during the period from June until September 2012. The protocol of this study was approved by ethics committee of Management and Science University, Malaysia. The aims were explained and a consent form was signed by each participant. Respondents were chosen randomly from each school with the help of the headmasters. Self-administrated questionnaires, covering socio-demographic characteristics and general knowledge of lung cancer, were distributed. Once all 150 respondents completed the questionnaire, they passed it to their head master for collecting and recording. All the data were analyzed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) version 13. ANOVA and t-test were applied for univariate analysis; and multiple linear regression for multivariate analysis. Results: A total of 150 male secondary school teachers participated in this study. Their mean age was $35.6{\pm}6.5$ (SD); maximum 50 and minimum 23 years old. More than half of the participants were Malay and married (52%, 79%; respectively). Regarding the knowledge about lung cancer, 57.3% of the participants mentioned that only males are affected by lung cancer. Some 70.7% mentioned that lung cancer can be transmitted from one person to another. More than half (56.7%) reported that lung cancer is not the leading cause of death in Malaysian males. As for risk factors, the majority reported that family history of lung cancer is not involved. However, 91.3% were aware that cigarettes are the main risk factor of lung cancer and more than half (52%) believed that second-hand smoking is one of the risk factor of lung cancer. More than half (51.3%) were not aware that asbestos, ionizing radiation and other cancer causing substances are risk factors for lung cancer. Quitting smoking, avoiding second-hand smoking and avoiding unnecessary x-ray image of the chest (53.3%, 96.0%, 87.3%; respectively) are the main preventive measures mentioned by the participants. For the factors that influence the participants knowledge, univariate and multivariate analysis showed that only race was significant. Conclusions: Overall, the knowledge of school male teachers about lung cancer was low. However, few items were scored high: cigarettes are the main risk factor; avoiding second-hand smoking; and avoiding x-rays. Interventions to increase lung cancer awareness are needed to improve early detection behavior. Increase the price of pack of cigarettes to RM 20 and banning smoking in public places such as restaurants are highly recommended as primary preventive measures.

The Study on Purchase Intention of Luxury Brand about Price Raising: Focus on Difference according to Consumer Characteristics of Consumption Value, Prior Knowledge, and Perceived Risk (명품브랜드의 가격인상시 구매의도에 관한 연구: 소비가치, 사전지식, 지각된 위험의 소비자특성별 차이를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Hwa Dong
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.10 no.11
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    • pp.295-306
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    • 2012
  • This study analyzed empirically difference of purchase intention about price raising of luxury brand according to consumer characteristics such as consumption value, prior knowledge. and perceived risk. Fist, groups according to consumption value showed obvious differences. Group of pursuing uniqueness and ostentation value and group of pursuing quality and pleasure value showed positive purchase intention but group of pursuing social recognition value showed negative purchase intention. Second, groups according to perceived risk. didn't show difference and groups according to prior knowledge showed obvious difference. group of high prior knowledge showed positive purchase intention but group of low prior knowledge showed negative purchase intention. Third, analyzed result about interaction effect of consumer characteristics, Classified group of pursuing uniqueness and ostentation value, expressing high prior knowledge and Classified group of pursuing quality and pleasure value, expressing high perceived risk only showed positive purchase intention, The results of this study present implication to domestic companies aiming luxury brand that performing differently strategy of product and price according to target characteristics is more effective way in differentiating oneself from existing luxury brands and expanding market.