• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Estimation

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Estimation of Soil Loss Due to Cropland Increase in Hoeryeung, Northeast Korea (북한 회령지역의 농경지 변화에 따른 토양침식 추정)

  • Lee, Min-Boo;Kim, Nam-Shin;Kang, Chul-Sung;Shin, Keun-Ha;Choe, Han-Sung;Han, Uk
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.373-384
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    • 2003
  • This study analyses the soil loss due to cropland increase in the Hoeryeung area of northeast Korea, using Landsat images of 1987 TM and 2001 ETM, together with DTED, soil and geological maps, and rainfall data of 20 years. Items of land cover and land use were categorized as cropland, settlement, forest, river zone, and sand deposit by supervised classification with spectral bands 1, 2 and 3. RUSLE model is used for estimation of soil loss, and AML language for calculation of soil loss volumes. Fourier transformation method is used for unification of the geographical grids between Landsat images and DTED. GTD was selected from 1:50,000 topographic map. Main sources of soil losses over 100 ton/year may be the river zone and settlement in the both times of 1987 and 2001, but the image of the 2001 shows that sources areas have developed up to the higher mountain slopes. In the cropland average, increases of hight and gradient are 24m and $0.8^{\circ}$ from 1987 to 2001. In the case of new developed cropland, average increases are 75m and $2.5^{\circ}$, and highest soil loss has occurred at the elevation between 300 and 500m. The soil loss 57 ton of 1987 year increased 85 ton of 2001 year. Soil loss is highest in $30{\sim}50^{\circ}$ slope zones in both years, but in 2001 year, soil loss increased under $30^{\circ}$ zones. The size of area over 200 ton/year, indicating higher risk of landslides, have increased from $28.6km^2$ of 1987 year to $48.8km^2$ of 2001 year.

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Estimation of Secondary Scattered Dose from Intensity-modulated Radiotherapy for Liver Cancer Cases (간암환자에 대한 세기조절방사선치료에서의 2차 산란선량평가)

  • Kim, Dong Wook;Sung, Jiwon;Lee, Hyunho;Yoon, Myonggeun;Chung, Weon Kuu;Bae, Sun Hyun;Shin, Dong Oh;Chung, Kwangzoo;Lim, Young Kyung;Shin, Donho;Lee, Se Byeong
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.295-302
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    • 2013
  • We estimated secondary scattered and leakage doses for intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT), volumetric arc therapy (VMAT) and tomotherapy (TOMO) in patients with liver cancer. Five liver patients were planned by IMRT, VMAT and TOMO. Secondary scatter (and leakage) dose and organ equivalent doses (OEDs) are measured and estimated at various points 20 to 80 cm from the iso-center by using radiophotoluminescence glass dosimeter (RPLGD). The secondary dose per Gy from IMRT, VMAT and TOMO for liver cancer, measured 20 to 80 cm from the iso-center, are 0.01~3.13, 0.03~2.34 and 0.04~1.29 cGy, respectively. The mean values of relative OED of secondary dose of VMAT and TOMO for five patients, which is normalized by IMRT, measured as 75.24% and 50.92% for thyroid, 75.14% and 40.61% for bowel, 72.30% and 47.77% for rectum, 76.21% and 49.93% for prostate. The secondary dose and OED from TOMO is relatively low to those from IMRT and VMAT. OED based estimation suggests that the secondary cancer risk from TOMO is less than or comparable to the risks from conventional IMRT and VMAT.

Comparison of Results between Cytogenetic Technique and Molecular Genetic Technique in Colorectal Carcinoma Patients (대장암환자의 염색체 결실에서 세포유전학적 기법과 분자유전학적 기법의 결과 비교)

  • Park, Cheolin;Lee, Jae Sik
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Laboratory Science
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.285-293
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    • 2017
  • Globally, 1.3 million people develop colon cancer every year, and 600,000 people die each year it. In Korea, colorectal carcinoma was associated with the highest death rate, accounting for 8,380 people, among solid cancers in 2015. Among the various methods for the diagnosis and study of colorectal carcinoma, the results obtained by cytogenetic and molecular genetic methods were compared. Detection rate was 47% in 18q, 40% in 17p, 27% in 22q, and 17% in 10q via CGH; detection rate was 57% in D18S59, 50% in D18S68, 50% in TP53CA, 47% in D18S6940% in D22S274, 37% in D22S283, 27% in D10S187, and 23% in D10S541 with LOH. Microsatellite marker matching rates were 100% in D22S274, 100% in D22S283, 100% in D10S186, 100% in D10S187, 100% in D10S541, 93% in D18S69, 93% in D18S68, 92% in TP53CA, and 89% in D18S59. The agreement rate between the two methods was 94.4% based on positive results using CGH. Based on the advantages of CGH, which was the ability to obtain information regarding the entire tumor genome at once, this experiment could identify the region with significant deletion using CGH and the more limited region LOH, with a completely different approach. LOH in the recurrent high-risk group, 18q21, was helpful in the selection of treatment modalities and in prognostic estimation as well as making the most appropriate decision for treatment. Therefore, it is suggested that LOH with surgical site tissues could be one of the treatment methods for recurrent high-risk group among patients with colorectal carcinoma.

Long-term Results of Surgical Correction for Partial Atrioventricular Septal Defects -Seventeen-year Experience - (부분방실중격결손증에 대한 외과적 교정의 장기 결과)

  • 이정렬;박천수;임홍국;김용진;노준량;배은정;노정일;윤용수
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.36 no.12
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    • pp.911-920
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    • 2003
  • In this study, we analyzed the long-term surgical outcome of partial atrioventricular septal defects during the past 17 years at Seoul National University Hospital. Material and Method: A retrospective analysis on mortality, survival, and reoperation and their risk factors was done in 93 patients who underwent surgical correction of partial atrioventricular septal defects between April 1986 and December 2002. 32 patients were male and 61 were female with a median age of 68 months (3∼818 months) and a mean follow-up period of 108 months (1∼200 months). Result: There were 4 operative deaths (4.3%) and one mortality during the follow-up period. 3, 5, 10, and 15 year actuarial survival rates were 95.7%, 94.3%, 94,3%, and 94.3%, respectively. After the surgical correction, left atrioventricular valve Incompetence was improved in 61patients (67.7%), remained same as the preoperative status in 14 patients (15.1%), and was aggravated in 12 patients (12.9%). Reoperation was performed in 8 patients (9.0%) after a mean interval of 38.6 months (3∼136 months). Freedom from reoperation rates at 3, 5, 10, and 15 years after surgical correction were 94.0%, 91.4%, 91.4%, and 88,2%, respectively Reasons for reoperation were 7 left atrioventricular valve incompetence, 2 left ventricular outflow tract obstruction, a residual atrial septal defect, a left atrioventricular valve stenosis, and a right ventricular failure. Left ventricular outflow tract obstruction was the only statistically significant factor. In ten patients, significant arrhythmia was developed and three of them were supraventricular arrhythmia. Complete atrioventricular block occurred in 7 patients and permanent pacemakers were implanted in six of them. Conclusion: Surgical corrections of partial atrioventricular septal defects were performed with low operative mortality. Since left atrioventricular valve incompetence was the most common cause of reoperation and left ventricular outflow tract obstruction was the only risk factor for reoperation, a precise estimation of the left atrioventricular valve morphology and the structure of left ventricular outflow tract are needed. Although left ventricular outflow tract obstruction rarely developed, reoperation was frequently required and resection of subaortic tissue could be peformed but the possibility of recurrence was high, so modified Konno operation could be performed with satisfactory results. Complete atrioventricular block developed frequently in early periods, but was overcome with a precise anatomical understanding of conduction system and experience.

Estimation of Economic Losses on the Agricultural Sector in Gangwon Province, Korea, Based on the Baekdusan Volcanic Ash Damage Scenario (백두산 화산재 피해 시나리오에 따른 강원도 지역 농작물의 경제적 피해 추정)

  • Lee, Yun-Jung;Kim, Su-Do;Chun, Joonseok;Woo, Gyun
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.515-523
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    • 2013
  • The eastern coast of South Korea is expected to be damaged by volcanic ash when Mt. Baekdusan volcano erupts. Even if the amount of volcanic ash is small, it can be fatal on the agricultural sector withering many plants and causing soil acidification. Thus, in this paper, we aim to estimate agricultural losses caused by the volcanic ash and to visualize them with Google map. To estimate the volcanic ash losses, a damage assessment model is needed. As the volcanic ash hazard depends on the kind of a crops and the ash thickness, the fragility function of damage assessment model should represent the relation between ash thickness and damage rate of crops. Thus, we model the fragility function using the damage rate for each crop of RiskScape. The volcanic ash losses can be calculated with the agricultural output and the price of each crop using the fragility function. This paper also represents the estimated result of the losses in Gangwon province, which is most likely to get damaged by volcanic ashes in Korea. According to the result with gross agricultural output of Gangwon province in 2010, the amount of volcanic ash losses runs nearly 635,124 million wons in Korean currency if volcanic ash is accumulated over four millimeters. This amount represents about 50% of the gross agricultural output of Gangwon province. We consider the damage only for the crops in this paper. However, a volcanic ash fall has the potential to damage the assets for a farm, including the soil fertility and installations. Thus, to estimate the total amount of volcanic ash damage for the whole agricultural sectors, these collateral damages should also be considered.

Economic Loss Estimation of Mt. Baekdu Eruption Scenarios (백두산 화산 분화 시나리오에 따른 경제적 손실 평가)

  • Yu, Soonyoung;Lee, Yun-Jung;Yoon, Seong-Min;Choi, Ki-Hong
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.205-217
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    • 2014
  • As Mt. Backdu is expected to erupt, the social and economic impacts of the eruption on the Korean peninsula as well as on the world become a research topic of interest. If the volcano erupts, South Korea can be directly impacted by volcanic ash, which will bring out secondary damages in various ways. Given that the direct damage is a basis to estimate indirect and secondary damages, this paper was to review a method to estimate direct damages, called catastrophe risk models, and estimate the direct damages of available eruption scenarios of Mt. Baekdu. Based on the results, the damages by volcanic ash will occur mostly around Gangwon province if the Mt. Backdu erupts. Thus the inventory lists and their damage functions of Gangwon provinces were collected. In particular agricultural and forestry products were surveyed based on the land use. Direct damages were estimated using volcanic ash distribution of eruption scenarios, inventory information and their damage functions. In result, a scenario in winter caused the damage of 299.8 billion KRW (20.4% of total agricultural production in 2010) and 28.9 billion KRW (9.0% of total forestry production in 2010) in agriculture and forestry, respectively. The damages in agriculture was larger, and it is due to the damage functions which show the agricultural products are more vulnerable to volcanic ash than forestry products. Also the agricultural production (1,471.7 billion KRW in 2010) are more than 4.5 times the forestry production (322.3 billion KRW in 2010) in Gangwon province. Inje and Gangnung had the most damages in the scenario in winter. Inje had the most damage due to the thick ash deposit (8.5 mm in average) despite the low production. On the other hand, Goseong had a low damage compared to the ash thickness larger than 20mm, owing to the low production. The direct damage estimated through this process can be used to estimate indirect damages.

Ecological Risk Assessment of Residual Petroleum Hydrocarbons using a Foodweb Bioaccumulation Model (먹이연쇄 생물축적 모형을 이용한 잔류유류오염물질의 생태위해성평가)

  • Hwang, Sang-Il;Kwon, Jung-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.31 no.11
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    • pp.947-956
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    • 2009
  • Residual petroleum hydrocarbons after an oil spill may accumulate in the marine benthic ecosystem due to their high hydrophobicity. A lot of monitoring data are required for the estimation of ecosystem exposure to residual petrochemicals in an ecological risk assessment in the affected region. To save time and cost, the environmental exposure to them in the affected ecosystem can also be assessed using a simple food-web bioaccumulation model. In this study, we evaluated residual concentrations of four selected polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (phenanthrene, anthracene, pyrene, and benzo[a]pyrene) in a hypothetic benthic ecosystem composed of six species under two exposure scenarios. Body-residue concentration ranged 5~250 mg/kg body depending on trophic positions in an extreme scenario in which the aqueous concentrations of PAHs were assumed to be one-tenth of their aqueous solubility. In addition, bioconcentration factors (BCFs) and bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) were evaluated for model species. The logarithm of bioconcentration factor (log BCF) linearly increased with increasing the logarithm of 1-octanol-water partition coefficient (log $K_{OW}$) until log $K_{OW}$ of 7.0, followed by a gradual decrease with further increase in log $K_{OW}$ without metabolic degradation. Biomagnification became significant when log $K_{OW}$ of a pollutant exceeded 5.0 in the model ecosystem, indicating that investigation of food-web structure should be critical to predict biomagnifications in the affected ecosystem because log $K_{OW}$ values of many petrochemicals are higher than 5.0. Although further research is required for better site-specific evaluation of exposure, the model simulation can be used to estimate the level of the ecosystem exposure to residual oil contaminants at the screening level.

The Study on Risk Factors Analysis and Improvement of VDT Syndrome in Nuclear Medicine (핵의학과 Video Display Terminals Syndrome 유해 요인 조사 및 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jung-Soo;Kim, Seung-Jeong;Lee, Hong-Jae;Kim, Jin-Eui;Kim, Hyun-Joo;Han, In-Im;Joo, Yung-Soo
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.61-66
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: Recently, Department of Nuclear Medicine have an interest in Video Display Terminals (VDT) syndrome including musculoskeletal disorders, ophthalmologic disorders, trouble of electromagnetic waves and stress disorders occur to VDT workers as the growing number of users and rapid pace of service period supply in large amount. This study research on the actual condition for VDT syndrome in Nuclear Medicine, Seoul National University Hospital (SNUH), discover the problem and draw a plan of upcoming improvement. The aim of this study establish awareness about VDT syndrome and is to prevent for it in the long run. Materials and Methods: Department of Nuclear Medicine, SNUH is composed Principle part, Pediatric part and PET center. We estimated risk factors visit in each part directly. Estimation method use "Check list for VDT work" of Wonjin working environment health laboratory and check list is condition of VDT work, condition of work tables, condition of chairs, condition of keyboards, condition of monitors, working position, character of health management and other working environment. Analysis result is verified in Department of Occupational and Environment, Hallym University Sacred Heard Hospital. Results: As a result of analysis, VDT condition of Department of Nuclear Medicine, SNUH is rule good. In case of work tables, recent of things are suitable to users upon the ergonomical planning, but 15% of existing work tables are below the standard value. In case of chairs are suitable, but 5% of theirs lost optimum capacity become superannuated. The keyboards are suitable for 98% of standard value. In case of monitors, angle control of screen is possible of all, but positioning control is impossible for 38%. In case of working position, 10% is fixed positioning for long time and some of the items researched unsuitable things for standard. At health management point, needed capable of improvement. Also, other working condition as lighting, temperature, noise and ventilation, discovered the problem, but is sufficient to advice value. Conclusion: VDT syndrome is occurrences of possibility continuously, come economical expensive about improvement, is inherent in various causes and originate without your knowledge. So, there is need systematic management system. In Nuclear Medicine, VDT syndrome make it better that constant interest and effort as improvement of ergonomical working environment, improvement of working procedure, regular exercise and steady stretching, and can be prevented fairly. This promote physical and mental condition of worker in top form in comfortable working environment, so this is judged by enlargement of operations efficiency and rising of satisfaction ratings of the inside client.

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In Situ Surfactant Flushing of Contaminated Site (계면 활성제를 이용한 In Situ 토양 세척)

  • 염익태;안규홍
    • Journal of Korea Soil Environment Society
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.9-24
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    • 1997
  • Surfactant-aided in situ soil flushing has been proposed as an alternative for the expensive and time consuming 'pump and treat' technology in remediation of contaminated soil and groundwater Injected surfactants can effectively solubilize contaminants sorbed to the soil matrix or nonaqueous phase liquids(NAPLs) in residual saturation. The contaminants solubilized in groundwater are recovered and treated further. The theoretical background of the technology and the results of the field operations, mostly in the US. were summarized. In addition, the factors crucial to the successful application of the technology were discussed. Cost analyses and technical limitations in current applications were also discussed. In conclusion, it is likely that in situ surfactant flushing become a viable option for soil remediation in limited cases. Currently, further advances with respect to operation cost and to treatment efficiency are required for more extensive application of the technology. However, the current trends in soil remediation, specially the growing emphasis on risk based corrective action and natural attenuation, will increase the competitiveness of the technology. For example, removal of easily washable contaminants by short term soil flushing followed by long term monitoring and natural attenuation can greatly reduce the operation cost and time.

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Financial Fraud Detection using Text Mining Analysis against Municipal Cybercriminality (지자체 사이버 공간 안전을 위한 금융사기 탐지 텍스트 마이닝 방법)

  • Choi, Sukjae;Lee, Jungwon;Kwon, Ohbyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.119-138
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    • 2017
  • Recently, SNS has become an important channel for marketing as well as personal communication. However, cybercrime has also evolved with the development of information and communication technology, and illegal advertising is distributed to SNS in large quantity. As a result, personal information is lost and even monetary damages occur more frequently. In this study, we propose a method to analyze which sentences and documents, which have been sent to the SNS, are related to financial fraud. First of all, as a conceptual framework, we developed a matrix of conceptual characteristics of cybercriminality on SNS and emergency management. We also suggested emergency management process which consists of Pre-Cybercriminality (e.g. risk identification) and Post-Cybercriminality steps. Among those we focused on risk identification in this paper. The main process consists of data collection, preprocessing and analysis. First, we selected two words 'daechul(loan)' and 'sachae(private loan)' as seed words and collected data with this word from SNS such as twitter. The collected data are given to the two researchers to decide whether they are related to the cybercriminality, particularly financial fraud, or not. Then we selected some of them as keywords if the vocabularies are related to the nominals and symbols. With the selected keywords, we searched and collected data from web materials such as twitter, news, blog, and more than 820,000 articles collected. The collected articles were refined through preprocessing and made into learning data. The preprocessing process is divided into performing morphological analysis step, removing stop words step, and selecting valid part-of-speech step. In the morphological analysis step, a complex sentence is transformed into some morpheme units to enable mechanical analysis. In the removing stop words step, non-lexical elements such as numbers, punctuation marks, and double spaces are removed from the text. In the step of selecting valid part-of-speech, only two kinds of nouns and symbols are considered. Since nouns could refer to things, the intent of message is expressed better than the other part-of-speech. Moreover, the more illegal the text is, the more frequently symbols are used. The selected data is given 'legal' or 'illegal'. To make the selected data as learning data through the preprocessing process, it is necessary to classify whether each data is legitimate or not. The processed data is then converted into Corpus type and Document-Term Matrix. Finally, the two types of 'legal' and 'illegal' files were mixed and randomly divided into learning data set and test data set. In this study, we set the learning data as 70% and the test data as 30%. SVM was used as the discrimination algorithm. Since SVM requires gamma and cost values as the main parameters, we set gamma as 0.5 and cost as 10, based on the optimal value function. The cost is set higher than general cases. To show the feasibility of the idea proposed in this paper, we compared the proposed method with MLE (Maximum Likelihood Estimation), Term Frequency, and Collective Intelligence method. Overall accuracy and was used as the metric. As a result, the overall accuracy of the proposed method was 92.41% of illegal loan advertisement and 77.75% of illegal visit sales, which is apparently superior to that of the Term Frequency, MLE, etc. Hence, the result suggests that the proposed method is valid and usable practically. In this paper, we propose a framework for crisis management caused by abnormalities of unstructured data sources such as SNS. We hope this study will contribute to the academia by identifying what to consider when applying the SVM-like discrimination algorithm to text analysis. Moreover, the study will also contribute to the practitioners in the field of brand management and opinion mining.