• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
• /
• v.15 no.2
• /
• pp.67-82
• /
• 2008

Risk that breed large size disaster is happening variously for cause at social. natural a management. Incidence and damage scale are trend that increase rapidly than past. In these circumstance, to keep operational continuity of organization, area, society, risk management action that establish systematic counter measure estimating and analyze occurrence possibility and expectation damage of risk is essential indispensable issue and the best countermeasure. Risk management action does by main purpose establish optimum disaster reduction countermeasure. To deduce various countermeasure, process that estimate and analyze occurrence possibility and expectation damage of risk is essential indispensable issue. Therefore, this paper studies process design that can presume risk occurrence frequency and damage scale through distribution of probability.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.29 no.4
• /
• pp.741-752
• /
• 2016

Numerous studies have shown that normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution adequately fits the empirical return distribution of financial securities. The estimation of parameters can also be done relatively easily, which makes the NIG distribution more useful in financial markets. The maximum likelihood estimation and the method of moments estimation are easy to implement; however, we may encounter a problem in practice when a relationship among the moments is violated. In this paper, we investigate this problem in the parameter estimation and try to find a simple solution through simulations. We examine the effect of our adjusted estimation method with real data: daily log returns of KOSPI, S&P500, FTSE and HANG SENG. We also checked the performance of our method by computing the value at risk of daily log return data. The results show that our method improves the stability of parameter estimation, while it retains a comparable performance in goodness-of-fit.

• Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
• /
• v.46 no.6
• /
• pp.434-444
• /
• 2013

In order to evaluate drought risk at upland according to climate change scenario (RCP8.5), we have carried out the simulation using agricultural water balance estimation model, called AFKAE0.5, at 66 weather station sites in 2020, 2046, 2050, 2084, and 2090. Total Drought Risk Index between the first month (f) and last month (l) (TDRI(f/l)) and maximum continuous drought risk index (MCDRI(f/l)) were defined as the index for analyzing pattern and strength of drought simulated by the model. Based on distribution maps of MCDRI (1/12), drought strength was predicted to be most severe in 2084 for all regions. Some regions showed severe risk of drought meaning over 20 days of MCDRI (1/12) in the other years, while MCDRI (1/12) in other regions did not reach 5 days. Even though maximum value of TDRI (1/12) in 2090 was greater than in 2050, more severe drought risk in 2050 than in 2090 was predicted based on MCDRI (4/6). It implies that drought risk should be assessed for each crop with its own growing season.

• Proceedings of KOSOMES biannual meeting
• /
• 2017.11a
• /
• pp.113-113
• /
• 2017

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
• /
• v.3 no.2
• /
• pp.17-23
• /
• 1988

Planning controls for the hazardous situation from Petrochemical Complexes in residential areas requires on theoretical estimation of risks. Engineering criteria and standards should e interpreted as acceptable risks for the safety of industrial workers and the community arising from industrial accident. An approach to formulate a safety criteria as distance between the origin and object of hazards and their impact are discussed.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
• /
• v.14 no.5
• /
• pp.850-858
• /
• 2011

The risk analysis plays an important role in weapon system acquisition project due to uncertainties in the acquisition process. But in domestic, studies on risk analysis are insufficient and risk cost is not included in acquisition budget in policy. Therefore, in this study, we suggest a method that measures risk or success probability of project using the stochastic model. In particular, in order to calculate the success probability, we apply the joint probability distribution model of cost and schedule that are critical factors influencing the project risk. And also we verify the applicability of this model in Korean defence industry environment through case studies.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.23 no.1
• /
• pp.24-30
• /
• 2009

The purpose of this study was to establish an assessment method for the estimation of the pollution risk by oil spill accidents. Various oil spill patterns were calculated based on past accidents in the study area and these results were analyzed statistically. Then the risk probability, the oil arrival time, risk range, and so on were calculated. These calculations were performed for sub area sectors, fisheries and aquaculture farms, based on information about environmentally sensitive resources. Finally, the risk to each sub area sector was assessed by comparing the calculated results. These consequences indicated the objective and general risks of oil spill accidents and the result of this method will be made more appropriate by integrating real time risk predictions.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
• /
• v.54 no.2
• /
• pp.143-150
• /
• 2017

Previous methods to evaluate the risk of dropped objects rely on personnel experience of the engineer or operator without analyzed data. However analyzing historical statistic data is the best approach to find the safest operation route and to achieve more reasonable and reliable calculation results. By counting the failure frequency and fatal accident rate the risk can be quantified, and so controlled or mitigated with best economical risk reducing measures. This analysis gives a crane operator with useful information for selecting the best crane operation route, and a designer with an estimation of risk level for the dropped objects from a safety point of view.

• Journal of Distribution Science
• /
• v.13 no.5
• /
• pp.71-82
• /
• 2015

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate risk price implied from the pricing kernel of Korean stock distribution market. Recently, it is considered that the quantitative easing programs of major developed countries are contributing to a reduction in global uncertainty caused by the 2007~2009 financial crisis. If true, the risk premium as compensation for global systemic risk or economic uncertainty should show a decrease. We examine whether the risk price in the Korean stock distribution market has declined in recent years, and attempt to provide practical implications for investors to manage their portfolios more efficiently, as well as academic implications. Research design, data and methodology - To estimate the risk price, we adopt a non-parametric method; the minimum norm pricing kernel method under the LOP (Law of One Price) constraint. For the estimation, we use 17 industry sorted portfolios provided by the KRX (Korea Exchange). Additionally, the monthly returns of the 17 industry sorted portfolios, from July 2000 to June 2014, are utilized as data samples. We set 120 months (10 years) as the estimation window, and estimate the risk prices from July 2010 to June 2014 by month. Moreover, we analyze correlation between any of the two industry portfolios within the 17 industry portfolios to suggest further economic implications of the risk price we estimate. Results - According to our results, the risk price in the Korean stock distribution market shows a decline over the period of July 2010 to June 2014 with statistical significance. During the period of the declining risk price, the average correlation level between any of the two industry portfolios also shows a decrease, whereas the standard deviation of the average correlation shows an increase. The results imply that the amount of systematic risk in the Korea stock distribution market has decreased, whereas the amount of industry-specific risk has increased. It is one of the well known empirical results that correlation and uncertainty are positively correlated, therefore, the declining correlation may be the result of decreased global economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, less asset correlation enables investors to build portfolios with less systematic risk, therefore the investors require lower risk premiums for the efficient portfolio, resulting in the declining risk price. Conclusions - Our results may provide evidence of reduction in global systemic risk or economic uncertainty in the Korean stock distribution market. However, to defend the argument, further analysis should be done. For instance, the change of global uncertainty could be measured with funding costs in the global money market; subsequently, the relation between global uncertainty and the price of risk might be directly observable. In addition, as time goes by, observations of the risk price could be extended, enabling us to confirm the relation between the global uncertainty and the effect of quantitative easing. These topics are beyond our scope here, therefore we reserve them for future research.

• Environmental Mutagens and Carcinogens
• /
• v.19 no.1
• /
• pp.39-45
• /
• 1999

Human Carcinogenic Potency (HCP) can be estimated based on human daily exposure dose to carcinogen (Dh), body weight (Wh), 10% tumorigenic dose (TD10), and slope factor at TD10 (Q10) from 2-yr bioassay data. This approach is more relevant to humans generally exposed to low doses of carcinogens and can reduce more of extrapolation errors from high dose in animal experiments to low dose in humans than HERP (human exposure dose/rodent potency dose) proposed by Ames et al. (Science, 236, 271-280, 1987). TD50 and HERP have been routinely used to compare rodent carcinogenic potency and human carcinogenic potency, but those approaches have had limitations in extrapolation of high dose to low dose in humans. The advantages of HCP are to estimate human exposure dose (Dh) by human monitoring instead of environmental monitoring, to consider slope factor (Q10) which reflects the tendency of curve at low dose, and to use TD10 which represents much lower dose thant TD50 or HERP. HCP will be a useful parameter for the estimation of human carcinogenic potency in risk assessment and management of carcinogens.