• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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• v.35 no.6
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• pp.587-601
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• 2020

Exposure to hazardous substances occurs through multiple pathways. Aggregated risk assessment, which includes all potential exposure pathways to a single toxicant, is necessary to prevent exposure to harmful substances. We aimed to estimate cadmium and lead exposure through various media, such as food, water, air, smoking, cosmetics, and female hygiene products. This study covered 10,733 subjects from the Seventh Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey(2016, 2017). Dietary exposure was estimated using 24-hour recall data. For water and inhalational exposure, regional variations were considered. Water was classified as tap, bottled, and public water. Inhalational exposure was estimated using the '2014 Time Use Survey' based on daily lifestyle and social status. The frequency and volume of cosmetic usage were randomly approximated by sex and age. Post-menarcheal and premenopausal women were assumed to use feminine hygiene products. Non-carcinogenic aggregated risks were estimated using the Aggregate Risk Index from EPAs and the Total Exposure Hazard Index from Korean government guidelines. For carcinogenic risk assessment, excessive cancer risk was estimated. Ingestion, especially food, was the major route for both cadmium and lead exposure. Smoking was also associated with high cadmium exposure. Exposure to lead from cosmetics was remarkable but not critical. In aggregate risk assessments, median cadmium and lead exposure did not exceed the reference value. Sex, age, smoking status, and income affected exposure levels, unlike to regional variations.

• International Journal of Human Ecology
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.63-72
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• 2005

This paper considered the impact of changing the product liability rule from consumer to producer liability on product safety under asymmetric information. In particular, it has been attempted to remove several constraints on antecedent studies. The main results of the study are as follows: under the misperception of the risk on a product, consumers may underestimate the probability of product failure. In this case, the accident rate can be lowered under the producer's liability rule. However, even under the asymmetric information, a consumer's estimation on the probability may be converged with the expected risk level, which could be called the 'rational expectation.' In this situation the probability of product failure can be lowered under the strict liability with contributory negligence. Additionally, it is possible to reduce the probability of product failure when a legal rule that imposes liability on cheapest cost avoider is admitted.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.61-72
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• 1980

This paper is an attempt at developing a method for the analysis and estimation of the effects of project disruptions due to uncertainties. Such uncertainties may result from design changes in large-scale, complex, research and development, or construction projects. An entropical risk analysis method is developed. The method is able to estimate the project capacity to handle equivocation due to design changes and the effects of project disruptions. In an attempt to evaluate the predictive capability of the method, it is compared with the results obtained by a computer Monte Carlo simulation program. It is shown that the entropical risk analysis method may be suggested as an expedient means of evaluating project status for management in the different stages of project execution.

• Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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• 2003.10a
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• pp.319-324
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• 2003

본 논문에서는 matched-pair design에서의 두 처리간 동등성/ 비열등성 검정에 대해 고려하였다. 기존에 비율차이나 risk ratio관점에서 동등성/비열등성 검정을 시행한 것과는 달리, 본 논문에서는 odds ratio에 기초하여 두 가지 검정통계량을 유도하였다. (1) constrained maximum likelihood estimator(mle)를 이용한 fieller type 통계량 (2) 제약없이 구한 mle를 사용한 wald-type 통계량). 비율 차이나 risk ratio에 기초한 기존의 통계적 방법들(비율차이에 근거한 (3) score-type 통계량과 (4) wald-type 통계량, risk ratio에 기초한 (5) fieller-type 통계량과 (6) wald-type 통계량)과 본 논문에서 제시한 두가지 통계량의 성능을 비교하기 위해 모의실험을 시행하였다. 모의실험 결과, 본 논문에서 제안한 constrained mle를 사용한 fieller type 통계량은 empirical type I error 측면에서 매우 만족스러운 결과를 보이고 있으며, 특히 비대각 셀의 확률이 작아질 경우에도 안정적인 성능을 보여준다.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2007.11a
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• pp.1871-1876
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• 2007

To establish the national railway safety system, the railway total safety technology development project has been promoted by Ministry of Construction and Transportation (MOCT) since August 2004. The project has producted successful results in many areas of railway safety, however, it is required that the research field should be re-examined to meet the aim of the project. To do that, the precedence of the investment of research resources should be reviewed and determined. The risk of serious railway accidents such as train collision, derailment and level crossing accidents are estimated. From the estimation result and the statistics on the railway accidents over fast few years, the risk factors of railway accidents can be calculated.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.143-152
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• 1997

Probabilistic Safety Assessment(PSA) is an engineering analysis of the possible contributors to the risk from a nuclear power plant. It consist of three phases named as Level 1, 2 and 3. Level 1 PSA mainly focused in this paper is the phase of system analysis which includes the development of accident scenarios and the frequency estimation of each scenario. It covers also the system reliability analysis, component data analysis, and human reliability analysis. PSA have become a standard tool in safety evaluation of nuclear power plants. The main benefit of PSA is to provide insights into plant design, performance and environmental impacts, including the identification of dominant risk contributors and the comparison of options for reducing risk.

• Journal of Information Technology and Architecture
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.365-376
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• 2012

We examine the value of information sharing in the context of supplier-buyer relationships after controlling for trading partners' opportunism. Given that trading partners' opportunism is not randomly chosen, we explicitly incorporate their self-selection process into our estimation procedure by employing Heckman's self-selection model. According to our analysis, firms that have built safeguards via mutual trust, commitments and information sharing experience less opportunistic risk in supplier-buyer relationships. Our findings also suggest that information sharing has a positive impact on firm performance after controlling for opportunism. Further, firms that are less exposed to trading partners' opportunistic risk have achieved a higher performance than others that are more exposed. Importantly, higher performance for those firms with less opportunistic risk is driven by safeguards in supplier-buyer relationships as well as information sharing. Our findings can be applied for systems analysts to design information systems of supplier-buyer transactions.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.58-63
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• 1993

Recently, a large amount of flammable or explosive materials have been handled or stored in chemical industries. H the equipments fail or the materials release in consequence of operation errors, fire and explosion could occur to them. Thus, risk assessment using quantification of risks is very important when design of processes and modifications of installed processes are performed. The purpose of this study is to develop the program for fire and explosion index in order to quantify the expected damage of fire and explosion incidents in chemical plants, to identify equipment that would be likely to contribute to the creation or escalation of an incident, to comunicate the potential fire and explosion risk to management and to account of damage cost.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.365-375
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• 2017

Seismic risk management has two main technical aspects: to recommend the construction of high-performance buildings and other structures using earthquake-resistant designs or evaluate existing ones, and to prepare emergency plans using realistic seismic scenarios. An overview of seismic risk assessment methodologies in Croatia is provided with details regarding the components of the assessment procedures: hazard, vulnerability and exposure. For Croatia, hazard is presented with two maps and it is expressed in terms of the peak horizontal ground acceleration during an earthquake, with the return period of 95 or 475 years. A standard building typology catalogue for Croatia has not been prepared yet, but a database for the fourth largest city in Croatia is currently in its initial stage. Two methods for earthquake vulnerability assessment are applied and compared. The first is a relatively simple and fast analysis of potential seismic vulnerability proposed by Croatian researchers using damage index (DI) as a numerical value indicating the level of structural damage, while the second is the Macroseismic method.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.1-13
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• 2021

Fuel costs represent one of the most substantial expenses for airlines, accounting for 20% - 36% of the airline's total operating cost. The present study discusses the so-called discretionary fuel that is additionally loaded at the discretion of airlines to cover unforeseen variations from the planned flight operations. The proper range of the discretionary fuel to be loaded for economic flight operations was estimated by applying Monte Carlo simulation technique. With this simulation model for loading discretionary fuel, airlines cannot only reduce the total amount of fuel to be consumed but also minimize the risk of unplanned flight disruptions caused by insufficient fuel on board. Airlines should be able to guarantee proper risk management processes for fuel boarding by carrying enough fuel to high-risk airports. This study would provide a practical guideline for loading proper amounts of discretionary fuel. Future researchers should be encouraged to improve this study by elaborating the weather variable.