• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Estimation

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Assessment of Maximum Use Levels and Estimation of Theoretical Maximum Daily Intake for 9 Food Additives in Korea by the Budget Method (Budget 방법론에 의한 한국의 식품첨가물 사용기준평가 및 식품첨가물 9종에 대한 이론적 최대섭취량의 추정)

  • 윤혜정;이미경;이창희;이종옥;이철원
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.186-194
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    • 1999
  • The Budget method used currently in Codex for estimation of use levels of food additives was investigated and the specific approach that can be applicable for Koreans has been proposed. Theoretical maximum daily intakes(TMDIs) of benzoate, $\rho$-hydroxybenzoic acid ester, butylated hydroxyanisole(BHA), butylated hydroxytoluene (BHT), t-butylhydroquinone(TBHQ), nitrite, nitrate, sorbate, and sulfite were estimated and compared with corresponding acceptable daily intakes(ADIs). Additives requiring further precise evaluation were screened. TMDIs of benzoate, BHA, BHT, TBHQ, nitrite, and sulfite exceeded ADIs. On the other hand, it is appeared that TMDIs of $\rho$-hydroxybenzoic acid ester, nitrate, and sorbate were below ADIs. It is expected that the Budget method may be used as one approach for the estimation of use level and risk assessment.

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Porewater Pressure Predictions on Hillside Slopes for Assessing Landslide Risks(III)-Model Parameter Identification- (산사태 위험도 추정을 위한 간극수압 예측에 관한 연구 (III)-모델 매개변수 분석-)

  • 이인모;박경호
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.41-50
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    • 1992
  • In general, the conceptual lumped-parameter groundwater flow model to predict the groundwater fluctuations in hillside slopes has unknown model parameters to be estimated from the known input -output data. The purpose of this study is to estimate the optimal model parameters of the groundwater flow model developed by authors. The Mazilnum A Posteriori( MAP) estimation method is utilized for this purpose and it is applied to a site which shows the typical landslide in Korea. The result of application shows tllat the 반AP estimation method can estimate the unknown parameters properly well. The groundwater model developed along with estimation technique applied in this paper will be used for assessing risk of landslides.

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Risk-based Test Case/Test Set Value Estimation Model (리스크 기반 테스트 케이스/테스트 세트 가치 추정 모델)

  • Kwon, Won-Il;Kim, Jong-Ku;Kwon, Ho-Yeol
    • Journal of Industrial Technology
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    • v.32 no.A
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    • pp.125-128
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, we proposed a prioritization method of test cases using a value estimation model of test sets, that are key elements for highly effective software testings as well as involve a large cost factor in software developments and maintenances. Based on previous studies, our idea includes introducing some practical factors of the test case prioritization which critically influence the value of a test case: Relative values of test sets before and after the test running, Average value of these two relative values, Severity of the defect, Risks that are covered, Frequency of use, Change related values, Systematic elicitations, etc. Finally we discussed the usefulness and the expected effects of the proposed scheme.

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Regression Technique-based Productivity Estimation conducting Construction Delay Factor Analysis on Interior Works in High-rise Building Construction (공기지연요소분석을 이용한 회귀분석 기반 초고층 내부공사의 생산성 예측)

  • Kim, Hyun-mi;Kim, Tae-Hyung;Shin, Young-Keun;Kim, Young-Suk;Han, Seungwoo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.191-192
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    • 2011
  • The construction projects contain a lot of variables and risk affecting productivity. The duration of the project must be recognized important as for quality, unit cost and safety. There is need for improving work efficiency by investigating relationship of works to prevent delay. This study focuses on analysing the delay factors of steel staircase system to suggest regression model that enables construction productivity estimation. The position of the observers and construction delay factors were expressed by the independent variable of the regression model and productivity was expressed by a dependent variable. This paper suggests quantitative productivity and it is expected that will be helpful estimating application in construction new technologies.

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Cluster Sampling in Sampling Inspection: Bayes Estimation

  • Juyoung Lee
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.107-116
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    • 1999
  • We propose a sample design which minimize Bayes risk for cluster smpling in sampling inspection. We treat a pilot sample and an additional sample size as random variable. In addition we compute an appropriate cluster size for handling over-dispersion.

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A Test on the Volatility Feedback Hypothesis in the Emerging Stock Market (신흥주식시장에서의 변동성반응가설 검정)

  • Kim, Byoung-Joon
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.191-234
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    • 2009
  • This study examined on the volatility feedback hypothesis through the use of threshold GARCH-in-Mean (GJR-GARCH-M) model developed by Glosten, Jaganathan, and Runkle (1993) in the stock markets of 14 emerging countries during the period of January, 1996 to May, 2009. On this study, I found successful evidences which can support the volatility feedback hypothesis through the following three estimation procedures. First, I found relatively strong positive relationship between the expected market risk premiums and their conditional standard deviations from the GARCH-M model in the basis of daily return on each representative stock market index, which is appropriate to investors' risk-averse preferences. Second, I can also identify the significant asymmetric time-varying volatility originated from the investors' differentiated reactions toward the unexpected market shocks by applying the GJR-GARCH-M model and further find the lasting positive risk aversion coefficient estimators. Third, I derived the negative signs of the regression coefficient of unpredicted volatility on the stock market return by re-applying the GJR-GARCH-M model after I controlled the positive effect of predicted volatility through including the conditional standard deviations from the previous GARCH-M model estimation as an independent explanatory variable in the re-applied new GJR-GARCH-M model. With these consecutive results, the volatility feedback effect was successfully tested to be effective also in the various emerging stock markets, although the leverage hypothesis turned out to be insufficient to be applied to another source of explaining the negative relationship between the unexpected volatility and the ex-post stock market return in the emerging countries in general.

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Comparative Study of Soil Risk Assessment Models used in Developed Countries (선진국의 토양위해성평가 모델 비교분석 연구)

  • An, Youn-Joo;Baek, Yong-Wook;Lee, Woo-Mi;Jeong, Seung-Woo;Kim, Tae-Seung
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.53-63
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    • 2007
  • Soil risk assessment models were used to determine the goals of soil remediation and to establish the soil quality standards in developed countries. Recently, Korean Ministry of Environment prepared the guideline for soil risk assessment. Soil risk assessment model applicable to Korean situation will be needed in the near future. In this study, three models for soil risk assessment were extensively compared to suggest the fundamental components that required for the soil risk assessment in Korea. The models considered in this study were CalTOX in the United States, CLEA (Contaminated Land Exposure Assessment) in the United Kingdom, and CSOIL in the Netherlands. The major exposure routes and the intake estimation equations suitable for Korean situation were suggested. The exposure routes suggested were intake of the crops, underground water, indoor outdoor soil ingestion, dust inhalation and a volatile matter inhalation. The equations for intake estimation used in CalTOX and CSOIL seem to be applicable for the calculation of the human intake in Korea.

Estimation of Multi-Route Exposure and Aggregated Risk Assessment for Cadmium and Lead (카드뮴과 납의 다경로 노출량 추정 및 통합 위해성 평가)

  • Yu, Changwoo;Kwon, Hoonjeong
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.587-601
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    • 2020
  • Exposure to hazardous substances occurs through multiple pathways. Aggregated risk assessment, which includes all potential exposure pathways to a single toxicant, is necessary to prevent exposure to harmful substances. We aimed to estimate cadmium and lead exposure through various media, such as food, water, air, smoking, cosmetics, and female hygiene products. This study covered 10,733 subjects from the Seventh Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey(2016, 2017). Dietary exposure was estimated using 24-hour recall data. For water and inhalational exposure, regional variations were considered. Water was classified as tap, bottled, and public water. Inhalational exposure was estimated using the '2014 Time Use Survey' based on daily lifestyle and social status. The frequency and volume of cosmetic usage were randomly approximated by sex and age. Post-menarcheal and premenopausal women were assumed to use feminine hygiene products. Non-carcinogenic aggregated risks were estimated using the Aggregate Risk Index from EPAs and the Total Exposure Hazard Index from Korean government guidelines. For carcinogenic risk assessment, excessive cancer risk was estimated. Ingestion, especially food, was the major route for both cadmium and lead exposure. Smoking was also associated with high cadmium exposure. Exposure to lead from cosmetics was remarkable but not critical. In aggregate risk assessments, median cadmium and lead exposure did not exceed the reference value. Sex, age, smoking status, and income affected exposure levels, unlike to regional variations.

Consumer Misperceptions, Product Liability Law and Product Safety

  • Lee Jong-In
    • International Journal of Human Ecology
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.63-72
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    • 2005
  • This paper considered the impact of changing the product liability rule from consumer to producer liability on product safety under asymmetric information. In particular, it has been attempted to remove several constraints on antecedent studies. The main results of the study are as follows: under the misperception of the risk on a product, consumers may underestimate the probability of product failure. In this case, the accident rate can be lowered under the producer's liability rule. However, even under the asymmetric information, a consumer's estimation on the probability may be converged with the expected risk level, which could be called the 'rational expectation.' In this situation the probability of product failure can be lowered under the strict liability with contributory negligence. Additionally, it is possible to reduce the probability of product failure when a legal rule that imposes liability on cheapest cost avoider is admitted.