• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2006.05a
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• pp.373-378
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• 2006

Recently the technical advances and complexities have generated much of the difficulties in managing the project resources, for both scheduling and costing to accomplish the project in the most efficient manner. The project manager is frequently required to render judgments concerning the schedule and resource adjustments. This research develops an analytical model for a schedule-cost and risk analysis based on visual PERT/CPM. We used a three-step approach: 1) in the first step, a deterministic PERT/CPM model for the critical path and estimating the project time schedule and related resource planning and we developed a heuristic model for crash and stretch out analysis based upon a time-cost trade-off associated with the crash and stretch out of the project. 2) In second step, we developed web-based risk evaluation model for project analysis. Major technologies used for this step are AHP (analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy-AHP, multi-attribute analysis, stochastic network simulation, and web based decision support system. Also we have developed computer programs and have shown the results of sample runs for an R&D project risk analysis. 3) We developed an optimization model for project resource allocation. We used AHP weighted values and optimization methods. Computer implementation for this model is provided based on GUI-Type objective-oriented programming for the users and provided displays of all the inputs and outputs in the form of GUI-Type. The results of this research will provide the project managers with efficient management tools.

• Korean Journal of Clinical Pharmacy
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.169-176
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• 2020

Background: Most meta-analyses of risk factors for severe or critical outcomes in patients with COVID-19 only included studies conducted in China and this causes difficulties in generalization. Therefore, this study aimed to systematically evaluate the risk factors in patients with COVID-19 from various countries. Methods: PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science were searched for studies published on the mortality risk in patients with COVID-19 from January 1 to May 7, 2020. Pooled estimates were calculated as odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) using the random-effects model. Results: We analyzed data from seven studies involving 26,542 patients in total in this systematic review and meta-analysis. Among the patients, 2,337 deaths were recorded (8.8%). Elderly patients and males showed significantly higher mortality rates than young patients and females; the OR values were 3.6 (95% CI 2.5-5.1) and 1.2 (95% CI 1.0-1.3), respectively. Among comorbidities, hypertension (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.1-4.6), diabetes (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.2-3.9), cardiovascular disease (OR 3.1, 95% CI 1.5-6.3), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR 4.4, 95% CI 1.7-11.5), and chronic kidney disease (OR 4.2, 95% CI 2.0-8.6) were significantly associated with increased mortalities. Conclusion: This meta-analysis, involving a huge global sample, employed a systematic method for synthesizing quantitative results of studies on the risk factors for mortality in patients with COVID-19. It is helpful for clinicians to identify patients with poor prognosis and improve the allocation of health resources to patients who need them most.

• Transactions of the Korean hydrogen and new energy society
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.660-673
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• 2022

In achieving carbon neutrality and the hydrogen economy, the estimation of H₂ cost is critical in terms of CCU technologies. This study analyzes LCOH of hydrogen produced by the carbon utilization unit with methane reforming and CO₂ from thermal power plant. LCOH for H₂ made with CO is estimated in three ways of Joint Cost Allocations with financial performance risk assessment. Regarding cost analysis, the zero value of LCOH is $6,003/ton. We found that the CCU technology has economic feasibility in terms of profitability. The sensitivity analysis result shows that the input ratio is more influential to the LCOH than other variables. Risk analysis presents the baseline price of zero value of LCOH - $8,408/ton, which is higher than the cost analysis - $6,003/ton. Mainly, the price variability of natural gas primarily affects the LCOH. The study has significant value in analyzing the financial performance risks as well as the cost of H₂ produced by a Plasma-based CCU system.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.67-76
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• 2012

In this study, we established objective appraisal standard by applying newly made appraisal standard to those areas equipped with the protection system targeted to the Mobility handicapped announced in this edition (issue 5, volume 9(Oct., 2010)) beyond simple evaluation related to protector satisfaction. Additionally, we achieved efficient budget execution by conducting the preliminary estimation assessment regarding those areas on which recognition devices should be newly deployed. Through the assessment of the system coordination, the maximum safety distance is proved to be 72.2m. On the basis of this result, we applied dangerous grade to the deployment of recognition devices considering both psychological and accidental risk. With this, we proposed valuation basis to enable us to do future business. Based on this assessment standard, the degree of risk is proved to decrease by 35.2% compared to before conducting the demonstration project in terms of evaluation of comprehensive risk regarding intended areas. Additionally, we confirmed the fact that the degree of risk can decrease by 33.1% totally after having recognition devices built according to the deployment standard within budget. Furthermore, comprehensive risk can decrease up to 94% compared to the level of the demonstration project even though we spend 21.9% less of the existing budget. Hence, we can say that the deployment method of recognition devices related to the degree of risk is applied efficiently in the near future in terms of controlling comprehensive risk and cutting down budget through this study.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.159-177
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• 1998

Although each company is trying to develop an economic analysis model with its own particular style or format, the appropriate method is not yet developed because there are many problems to be solved such as uncertainity of outcomes and intangible benefits of technology. The purpose of tris paper therefore is to suggest an economic analysis methodology, which reflects the complexity and the risk of R&D investment, through a case study on the development of a superconductor fault current limiter. A self-developed Monte Carlo simulation program utilized as a main tool in this paper was very useful for risk analysis of R&D investment which could not be solved in the previous DCF(Discounted Cash Flow) model. We also introduce learning effect to consider the intangible benefits such as Know-How obtained from R&D execution. The expected value and its probability distribution for R&D investment can be obtained by combining the Monte Carlo method with the decision tree approach. This result is helpful in judging the priority and the resource-allocation of R&D projects. It is however necessary to develop more precise model for quantifying the technology stock and the simulation program using the continuous probability distribution in expected values to improve the reliability of economic analysis on R&D projects.

• Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.123-131
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• 2015

A CCTV inspection method has been widely used to assess sewer condition and performance, but Korea lacks a proper decision support system for prioritizing sewer repair and rehabilitation (R&R). The objective of this paper is to introduce the results that we have developed in the Sewer Condition Assessment and Rehabilitation Decision-making (SCARD) Program using MS-EXCEL. The SCARD-Program is based on a standardized defect score for sewer structural and hydraulic assessment. Priorities are ranked based on risk scores, which are calculated by multiplying the sewer severity scores by the environmental impacts. This program is composed of three parts, which are decision-making for sewer condition and performance assessment, decision-making for sewer R&R priority assessment, and decision-making for optimal budget allocation. The SCARD-Program is useful for decision-makers, as it enables them to assess the sewer condition and to prioritize sewer R&R within the limited annual budget. In the future, this program logic will applied to the GIS-based sewer asset management system in local governments.

• Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.97-106
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• 2015

A CCTV inspection method has been widely used to assess sewer condition and performance, but Korea lacks a proper decision support system for prioritizing sewer repair and rehabilitation (R&R). The objective of this paper is to introduce the results that we have developed in the Sewer Condition Assessment and Rehabilitation Decision-making (SCARD) Program using MS-EXCEL. The SCARD-Program is based on a standardized defect score for sewer structural and hydraulic assessment. Priorities are ranked based on risk scores, which are calculated by multiplying the sewer severity scores by the environmental impacts. This program is composed of three parts, which are decision-making for sewer condition and performance assessment, decision-making for sewer R&R priority assessment, and decision-making for optimal budget allocation. The SCARD-Program is useful for decision-makers, as it enables them to assess the sewer condition and to prioritize sewer R&R within the limited annual budget. In the future, this program logic will applied to the GIS-based sewer asset management system in local governments.

• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• v.4 no.4
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• pp.41-46
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• 2014

Indian Construction industry is large, volatile, and requires tremendous capital outlays. Typically, the work offers low rates of return in relation to the amount of risk involved. A unique element of risk in the industry is the manner in which disputes and claims are woven through the fibre of the construction process. Delay is generally acknowledged as the most common, costly, complex and risky problem encountered in construction projects. Because of the overriding importance of time for both the Owner and the Contractor, it is the source of frequent disputes and claims leading to lawsuits. The growing rate of delays is adversely affecting the timely delivery of construction projects. Presently construction industries are facing a lot of problems, considering that a paper assess construction stakeholder's perception to the causes of delays and its effects on project delivery. And also one case study is considered in this paper to elicit responses from construction stakeholders. The primary aim of this paper is to identify the perceptions of the different parties regarding causes of delays, the allocation of responsibilities and the types of delays, and method of minimizing the construction delays.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.8
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• pp.297-309
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• 2021

In this study, to capture the skewness and kurtosis detected in both conditional and unconditional return distributions of the stock markets of Kazakhstan and Russia, two versions of normal mixture GARCH models are employed. The data set consists of daily observations of the Kazakhstan and Russia stock prices, and world crude oil price, covering the period from 1 June 2006 through 1 March 2021. From the empirical results, incorporating the long memory effect on the returns not only provides better descriptions of dynamic behaviors of the stock market prices but also plays a significant role in improving a better understanding of the return dynamics. In addition, normal mixture models for time-varying volatility provide a better fit to the conditional densities than the usual GARCH specifications and has an important advantage that the conditional higher moments are time-varying. This implies that the volatility skews implied by normal mixture models are more likely to exhibit the features of risk and the direction of the information flow is regime-dependent. The findings of this study contain useful information for diverse purposes of cross-border stock market players such as asset allocation, portfolio management, risk management, and market regulations.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.21-46
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• 2020

Purpose - This study aims to find if the introduction of project finance perspective leads to any modification to the view of PM industry on CSFs of PPP and their relative importance rank. Design/methodology/approach - Through literature reviews, this study came up with a set of CSFs reflective of both perspectives. AHP method was applied for analysis by developing an Analytic Hierarchical Model from this set and survey questionnaires of pairwise comparison to solicit 46 qualified expert responses. Findings - This study concurs with PM industry to acknowledge 'risk allocation', 'legal framework' and 'quality of feasibility' as ones of most important CSFs. However, relative importance rank of individual CSFs goes through significant modification under this study in favor of 'sponsor commitment and quality' but against 'political environment', in particular. Research implications or Originality - Discussions on the CSFs led by PM industry have not been properly reflective of project finance perspective, which is injected into this study to cure the partiality. For researchers, findings of this study may call attention to financing perspective when they discuss CSFs of PPP. Practitioners may benefit from this study by allocating resources in view of this new finding when pursuing PPP projects.